Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A slight gain for the Coalition from the latest Newspoll, as Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings maintain their improving trend.

Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.

Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Dan Gulberry @ #574 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 9:52 pm

    Boerwar @ #544 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 7:23 pm

    Deem the incomes of international corporations. If the don’t like that they can f*** off.

    WOW! Are you trying to out-Chavez Chavez? Talk about “capital flight” if that one’s ever introduced, which thankfully no-one ever will.

    Eh, let them flee. Then maybe we can stop living in fear of what people with money might do if we don’t constantly pander to their every whim. And then perhaps we’ll actually start accomplishing things and solving problems.

    Boerwar @ #519 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 8:51 pm

    Sure. Wealth generation is dissociated from any sort of physical, social, economic, political or resources reality. It is arbitrary. The difference between the Australian economy and the US economy is arbitrary.

    Yes. Of course that can be changed by transitioning from fiat currency back to the gold standard (or anything resource-based, or any cryptocurrency with a fixed ceiling on the total number of currency units that can ever be created). Then wealth is generated by mining more gold, or bitcoins, or whatever.

    But with fiat currency…completely arbitrary. Paper money has whatever value people deem it to have, so wealth happens by virtue of random deemings (and, if we’re talking accumulation of wealth, by one side being better at random deeming than the other).

  2. Why is newspoll the most trusted and reported on poll by msm and abc? Its sponsored by the mega-partisan newscorp. Do they use it as a political ‘tool’ between elections and crank up the accuracy on election day? Aren’t they one of the least trusted news source?

  3. Trump would be freaking out reading this.

    On issue after issue, Cohen did, however, separate himself from President Trump -– starting with the president’s criticism of how the government has conducted its investigation.

    After federal agents searched Cohen’s New York properties, Trump described the raid as a break-in, an “attack on our country, in a true sense. It’s an attack on what we all stand for.”

    “I don’t agree with those who demonize or vilify the FBI. I respect the FBI as an institution, as well as their agents,” Cohen told me. “When they searched my hotel room and my home, it was obviously upsetting to me and my family. Nonetheless, the agents were respectful, courteous and professional. I thanked them for their service and as they left, we shook hands.”

    Cohen also refused to criticize the Mueller investigation.

    I don’t like the term witch hunt,” he said, adding that he condemned Russia for interfering in the 2016 election.

    “As an American, I repudiate Russia’s or any other foreign government’s attempt to interfere or meddle in our democratic process, and I would call on all Americans to do the same,” he said.

    And in a direct rebuttal to President Trump, who sent out a tweet last week repeating Vladimir Putin’s claim that Russia did not interfere in our election, Cohen added this: “Simply accepting the denial of Mr. Putin is unsustainable.”

  4. They don’t want to get the boys out using an underwater route, so they are investigating draining the caves further.

    For one thing diving equipment is typically designed for adults.

    from CNN feed.

  5. A doctor and nurse who can dive are going in with a team bringing supplies, food and water, to stabilise the boys and their teacher, all are probably dehydrated and suffering from hypothermia since they have not been moving much for some days in cool, moist conditions.

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