Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A slight gain for the Coalition from the latest Newspoll, as Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings maintain their improving trend.

Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.

Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. “Nicko – when the Senate allows them to govern unhindered.”

    The senate isn’t meant to let them govern unhindered. Always the LNP’s way, when racism, or faux terrorism isn’t working blame someone else. Pathetic.

    The senate is meant to stop bad policy and if anything they haven’t been hindered nearly enough.

  2. WWP – the Senate is meant to be a house of review. It goes far beyond that remit and blocks policy – even those governments have been elected to enact.

    I can’t believe that after 11/11/75 anyone in the ALP thinks there should still be a Senate with its current power.

  3. CC, isn’t the senate in the governments pocket anyway.
    You might as well go back to blaming Labor for everything.

  4. wow
    The trolls really have come out of the woodwork.
    Sorry folks; essential is the same as last time. Kill bill didn’t work and it looks like leadershit is not going so good either.

  5. “Poroti asked me what I would do if I were the Emperor. On the whole I lean to Caligula rather than to Hadrian or Vespasian. Why should the Neo Liberals have all the fun?”

    All amateurs compared to Lucius Cornelius Sulla.

  6. C@T
    think I’ll save this one for after Labor wins the next federal election and the Coalition and the Conservative Crossbenchers try and frustrate their mandated agenda.

    Lol, you actually think CC will stick around after Labor wins? That’s just too cute 😛

  7. Quoting The West Australian’s Paul Murray when trying to score points against Labor is bit of a joke.

    He is the type who would greet a Labor announcement of a cure for cancer by bemoaning the fact that oncologists would be put out of work.

  8. risto says:
    Monday, July 2, 2018 at 9:06 pm
    The ghostwhovotes just twitted;

    #Essential Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (0) ALP 52 (0) #auspol

    #Essential Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (+2) ALP 37 (+2) GRN 11 (0) ON 6 (-1) #auspol

    Does anyone else think 52-48 is a bit flattering for Labor based on those primaries. Looks more like 51-49 to me. Although as someone here explained to me a while back the roundings they use can sometimes produce strange looking results.

  9. Rossmcg, I’m not a big fan of the paper but on this occasion it is uncovering disgraceful behaviour. If you can point out any errors of fact I’ll be happy to withdraw my remarks.

  10. Cranky,
    Read Paul Murray!

    Oh, you are an entertaining fellow.

    …Man with agenda, ie Paul Murray, writes a heavily, emotively slanted article in order to try and take some paint off the WA State Labor government. An article which slates NO blame home to the government that caused the problem. The previous WA Coalition government.

    I don’t need to read it.

    It’s Smear Labor 101.

    Cranky, I have lived and worked in WA. Both city and country. My children were born there. I KNOW how the Indigenous Australians have been treated there by the Whitefellas for over a century. I have been to the massacre sites. I have friends who work in the APY Lands on the border with SA. I know more than you think I know.

    I also know that these problems cannot be solved overnight. They need root and branch change from the ground up. Which doesn’t happen in 18 months you clueless, conservative message boy!

    And I have seen this show before. The conservative message disseminaters, such as Paul Murray, bag out Labor whenever they are in office for problems caused by the policies of the previous Conservative Coalition Administration. Then, when the Coalition get back into power, they do NOTHING to rectify those same problems, but what they do get on with are their policies of Assimilation and destruction of the connection of the Indigenous peoples with their Homelands and their culture.

    So, can you kindly piss off with your sanctimonious outrage? I know what you and Paul Murray are up to, and the motivations are not pure.

  11. CC

    I don’t read Murray. He is a liberal stooge. I don’t doubt that the situation in Roebourne is dire but it’s a bit cute to blame Labor.

    We had eight and a half years of the Barnett.

  12. ‘#Essential Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (0) ALP 52 (0) #auspol

    #Essential Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (+2) ALP 37 (+2) GRN 11 (0) ON 6 (-1) #auspol’

    So voters are drifting back to the major parties?

  13. Catmomma- the problems in the Aboriginal communities have been there for decades and the policies have been those of the ALP/Aboriginal Industry- not the LNP who have barely changed a thing because whenever they try to there is massive outrage. But, when something truely deserves outrage and condemnation- silence, cover up and more of the same- it is no different in the NT.
    I too have lived and worked in remote WA and NT and seen it first hand.

  14. JimmyD @ #607 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 10:23 pm

    think I’ll save this one for after Labor wins the next federal election and the Coalition and the Conservative Crossbenchers try and frustrate their mandated agenda.

    Lol, you actually think CC will stick around after Labor wins? That’s just too cute 😛

    Paul Murray might make him! 😉

    Hey, JD, I spoke to a lady who is President of the Casino Branch of the ALP where the candidate for Page is from, last Saturday night. She said he is Casino born and bred, well-liked locally, especially by those people who have nothing to do with politics, and he returned to his home town to work as a Social Worker after Uni. Sounds like the ideal sort of person to represent that seat.

  15. It took a Labor govt to do something about the appalling abuse in Roebourne, first with a 9 month long police investigation into child sex abuse which led to something like nearly 40 arrests and over 100 potential more charges.

    The Labor govt also substantially increased funding and services into the area as well as increased safe houses and training and development of locally based service providers. The previous Liberal govt simply sat on its hands and did SFA to deal with this.

    As usual Paul Murray is all shock and hysteria and again as per usual people like Cranky fall for it.

  16. If Roebourne was a not an Aboriginals town it would have been bulldozed and turned into a memorial park and the perpetrators sent to Coventry, banished from their communities and denied housing near schools etc – as it should be. But, you don’t like Paul Murray so you ignore the victims? Utter hypocritical madness.

  17. CC

    ‘If Roebourne was a not an Aboriginals town it would have been bulldozed and turned into a memorial park and the perpetrators sent to Coventry..’

    Haven’t seen this happen to a single white community, so no.

  18. Well that was an hour I won’t get back.

    4 questions were there? Hamish was worse than Jones for asking his own questions. And also cut off ALP pollie and deferred to Henderson … a freakin’ lot.

    Who spoke to people like she is a school marm

  19. IoM
    Leyonhelm has quadrupled and quintupled down now on SHY on The Project and 7.30

    He is a pig, and should resign.

  20. This is ‘helping’ Indigenous Australians, WA Coalition style:

    The Western Australian government will cease funding some remote Aboriginal communities and develop 10 large communities into “normalised” towns under a $220m plan that links better housing to school attendance and employment targets…

    …Speaking to a group of Aboriginal and community leaders in Kununurra, Redman said the government would, by the end of the year, the Barnett government would select 10 larger communities “for future investment into services and to normalise the service provision” which would go with “some mutual responsibilities about paying rent, and paying for water, and paying for power”.

    That investment, he said, would “ensure that we can pathway those communities to have commensurate services that you would have on an equivalent sized community … [as] a town in the [highly developed] south-west, and rightly so”.

    Robin Chapple, a state Greens MP who has a deep history in Aboriginal affairs in WA, said removing funding for services in smaller remote communities, which are often on traditional lands, was “the removal of people off country by stealth”.

    Chapple said attempts to move Aboriginal peoples off their traditional lands and into larger towns or communities had failed repeatedly in the past, and created the social issues that Barnett, who justified his closure comments as having a moral not an economic imperative, had claimed were the impetus for reform.

    “If you look at any of the work that has been done in this area, remote communities are the safest places,” he told Guardian Australia. “That’s where you send troubled kids, to get them away from the bad influences in town.”

    He said previous attempts to transition remote communities into gazetted towns had been “an abject failure”.

    “You end up with all of these houses with nobody living in them because they can’t pay rates and people around the houses living in the dirt,” he said.

    “If the thinking is that by some form of ‘glorified normalisation’ which is almost a form of assimilation by stealth that we can fix this, it’s not going to happen.”

    Tony Abbott says living in remote communities is a ‘lifestyle choice’. For the thousands of Indigenous people who actually live in them, it’s a matter of life and death.
    A special report from Guardian Australia’s Perth correspondent

    Calla Wahlquist

    There are three small communities within 30km of each other in the Kimberley, the isolated north-western corner of Australia.

    Because of a new funding deal struck between Australia’s state and federal governments, two of those communities could be closed.

    Two of the communities are Aboriginal. The third is not. It will not be closed.

    It has been six months since the federal government signed over funding responsibility for providing municipal and essential services to Western Australia’s 274 remote Indigenous communities to the state government and four since the WA premier, Colin Barnett, said between 100 and 150 of those communities faced “closure” because they were “not viable”.

    On Tuesday, Tony Abbott further inflamed the situation by saying his government could not be expected to “endlessly subsidise lifestyle choices if those lifestyle choices are not conducive to the kind of full participation in Australian society that everyone should have”.

    I would believe Calla Wahlquist rather then Paul Murray ANY day.

  21. Darn the L-NP become a little competitive at 40% PV. Having said that it is likely to be temporary after Shorten’s bad week and not sustainable.

  22. But, you don’t like Paul Murray so you ignore the victims?

    Dear me. Hysteria much?

    You should widen your reading beyond the likes of Paul Murray. That he’s only just discovered what’s happening in Roebourne despite news reports going back to August last year tells me that he doesn’t give much of shit about what’s happening up there, save for whipping up hysteria for the sake of getting eyeballs on his articles. That’s what I call sick.

  23. A must read Politico article with an excerpt from Luke Harding’s New York Times Best seller “Collusion: The Secret History of Trump’s First Visit to Moscow”.

    Details how in the 80’s a beefed up KGB stepped up its efforts to cultivate successful, or prominent people from the West, including those that may one day be political leaders . This included identifying candidates who showed ideological sympathy toward the U. S. S. R.: leftists, trade unionists and so on.

    If you are still in any doubt that Trump is an agent of Russia, read this.

  24. Cohen finally wakes up and realises what his priorities should be: his wife and children.

    President Trump’s longtime lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen signaled in a new interview a willingness to cooperate with federal prosecutors, even if doing so undercuts the interests of the president.

    “My wife, my daughter and my son have my first loyalty and always will,” Cohen told ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos, according to a story posted Monday morning on the network’s website.

  25. Cameron :

    I remember reading that when it first came out. The evidence continues to mount that Trump is among the best assets Putin has had.

  26. Paul Murray at the West is the definition of a hack.

    Boy the right wing trolls are working overtime on PB lately. It’s so boring. This will be peak Coalition, Labor will comfortably win the next election and the trolls will be like dust blown away by the winds of history.

  27. Why is Australian Capitalism (and its Liberal Party front) so utterly corrupt?

    Because it’s the way things are.
    These pricks are just prison screws in suits.
    They have no qualms about turning the key on you.
    Fuck them all.

  28. Compact Crank

    I was up in Roeburne in the 80’s . On first arrival driving around town town I saw two high school footy ovals . One green lush reticulated and the other Pilbara red barren with rocks on it. Guess which one was the ‘Aboriginal’ high school ?

  29. Boerwar says Monday, July 2, 2018 at 7:22 pm

    I am curious to know why Neo Lib policies are regarded as a total failure.

    By way of contrast, every single real attempt to deliver socialism has been a total disaster.

    There’s no doubt that the economic reforms of the Hawke/Keating governments delivered significant benefits to most, but not all, Australians. Many of these reforms were needed and are still benefiting this country today. However, I think the rising inequality that has resulted from many neoliberal policies is now starting to bite, especially in environments where “conservative” governments have ignored the social impact and pursued policies based on ideology and profits for their mates.

    The question I’ve been pondering for some time is what do we replace it with? There’s no evidence that socialism offers a long term solution. Perhaps the model pursued by Scandinavian countries might indicate a path forward? Maybe there’s a middle way? I think a risk is that even if more progressive governments institute much needed reforms that benefit all, not just the well off, they’re likely to be wound back by future conservative governments.

  30. citizen says Monday, July 2, 2018 at 9:05 pm

    Bernardi really has big tickets on himself. He will need to take a very long shower, dowse himself in cologne and throw away his clothes after appearing on QandA tonight.

    Bernardi will hopefully be gone the next time he has to face the people. Unfortunately, he’s still got another four years left in the Senate.

  31. citizen says Monday, July 2, 2018 at 8:57 pm

    Here’s a big test coming up for Turnbull. Will he tell the Nauruan government what they can do with their ban on the ABC attending the Pacific Islands Forum?

    Will there be any Australian media there to cover him if the ABC doesn’t go? Actually he would probably take his own camera crew and provide their footage to the media.

  32. davidwh

    Hello . Good to see a sensible Liberal Party voter like you here. But then you had a very sensible mum 🙂

  33. “Silly AE – anyone who knows Roman History knows Sulla was a Republican dictator not an Emperor.”

    Silly Eddie. Missed my point. again.

  34. C@t:

    Yep. Plus Cohen has Mueller AND federal investigators in New York pulling apart his business dealings.

  35. bc
    Maybe there’s a middle way?

    There’s no maybe about it.

    Capitalism constrained by social democracy does work.

    Conservatives used to know that, before greed and corruption got to them.

  36. Crank @9:28PM “No one in the ALP cares about the sexual abuse of children in Roebourne.


    OK, I’ll respond without checking Google.

    I only know about Roeburne, a remote Pilbara town, because of its heat records. If people are being abused there then that is a heinous crime needing concerted action, first to stop it happening, then address the needs of the victims as best as can be done, identify the perpetrators and deal with them to the full extent of the law.

    However, it appears that you want to further exploit the victims, just as the right wing governing Coalition has exploited asylum seekers these past two decades, to advance the interests of Big Money, in particular their political wing a.k.a. the “Liberal” party.


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