Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.
Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.
659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”
Essential is more proof that Labor has flatlined. Liberals now on Primary vote of 40%. Labor primary vote has topped out at 36-37%.
Shorten has to win both Braddon and Longman by 5%+ to be safe. He won’t see Sept 1 as party Leader if he can’t perform in the by-elections.
Boerwar @ #437 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 5:39 pm
None of which was brought about by neo-liberalism. As poroti stated with regards to your original list, this is another outcome that was achieved despite the best efforts of neo-liberalism, but were brought about by a generous dose of, oh, what’s the word for it? Rhymes with bocialism. I’m sure you’ll be able to tell me what the word is.
You make it so easy for people like me to jokingly refer to you as a dyed in the wool Tory. Other people might not be able to that it is indeed a joke and start to believe you really are one.
CC you belong on Sky. There is a market for bottom dwelling scum who say absurd and disgusting things there.
Are any Bludgers watching?
“Shorten has to win both Braddon and Longman by 5%+ to be safe.”
Really you typed that and thought pressing ‘Post Comment’ was a good idea. Perhaps you should go join CC as the dumb less offensive side kick.
If Labor win the next election with a flatlined 52% TPP share of the vote it will be a good day for Australia, a very good day.
When Labor wins the next election I wonder if Mod Lib will come back?
Malcolm Turnbull would go to an election before that occurs, sometime in the spring.
I hope so . Mod Lib was a pretty moderate Lib.
I watched 4 Corners and agree with PVO. An in depth view of 2 failures in Australia’s biosecuirty, overseen by the Department of Agriculture – with their minister more interested in rogering the staff than being on top of the scandals.
Firstly, white spot infested prawns imported by ‘self regulating’ crooks under the noses of denuded inspectors.
Secondly, bovine serum imported and labels of origin switched to hide their origin in foot and mouth infested South America. Whistle wa blown in 2013, the department under the direction of ‘the greatest retail politician ever’ has failed to convict any of the crooks in the subsequent 5 years.
An overall impression of biosecurity out of control putting Australia’s Clean/green food image at risk.
It is not the Liberal Primary on 40 but the Coalition primary.
40 is 2 less than last election and same as it was 6 weeks ago.
ALP is up 2 from last election. And 1 up from 6 weeks ago.
Greens up 1 from last election. up 1 from 6 weeks ago.
There are lies, damn lies and …. ESJ?
If Labor win Longman and Braddon with a combined margin of 5 votes Shorten will still be charging to the lodge and Trumble will be nervously looking over his shoulder.
Dan Gulberry – there are so many factual mistakes/untruths in your 9.21 post that I don’t have time to hit them all.
But let’s talk water- Perth has plenty of water. Our geography and the changing climate means reliance on dams isn’t going to work and we’ve known that for decades. There’s an Indian Ocean full of water and we just have to build as many Desalination plants as we want. We don’t currently reprocess waste water because of lack of scientific education of the population. And, there is the massive untapped Yaragadee Aquifer but we currently rely on the Gnangara and Jandakot mounds – without significant restraints on domestic bores.
Australians have never been wealthier.
Rich Australians have never been wealthier, whereas the poor and middle classes are moving backwards.
I agree that the wealth distribution is bad and that it is getting worse. (The context of my point was what was generating the wealth).
‘Really? A growing number of Australians ARE going to bed hungry.’
How so? The comparison I was making was with people in the 1880’s and the 1930’s.
Nearly everyone can afford clothes to keep warm and dry.
“Nearly” isn’t good enough.
I should have said practically everyone. The homeless people I see on a daily basis actually sleep warm and dry and have access to free food. The big problem for them is, IMO, security.
‘ We have, in the NDIS, the most massive attempt in the history of the Federation to address disability.
Which is being outsourced by the neo-liberal government, just as they’re doing with Medicare and Centrelink. In the end it’ll become the same sort of shambles that Centrelink has become.’
This may be so. But it will also almost certainly be much better than the priority it was getting before now.
‘Our spending on social security at around $180 billion a year from the Federal budget alone, is the highest ever.
Our population is the highest ever. In addition, even business organisations have stated that the level of payments for welfare are completely inadequate.’
That is only the Fed social security spend. It is enough for $90,000 for each of our the 2,000,000 people who are below the poverty line. Alternatively, it is enough for $45,000 for each of Australia’s 4,000,000 poorest people. How all that gets fucked up, I am not sure. But it is there and, if not frittered away and maldistributed would, in absolute terms be the biggest social security transfer in our history. It does not count other Fed transfers and it does not count state and local government transfers.
‘ We have totally free education to end high school level.
“Totally” free, eh? Except for textbooks, stationery and other supplies. Plus school outings, sports equipment and so many other items that make this “totally free” system very expensive.’
I was a teacher. There were ALWAYS in each school kids who received no financial support from their parents. And those kids got educated. For free.
‘ We have heavily subsidised education at tertiary level.
Subsidised by imposing high levels of debt on those aspiring to a degree.’
User pays is not a subsidy. What the users are NOT doing is paying the full cost of their education. That is heavily subsidised.’
‘ Australians, at a population level, have never been better educated.
Really? You obviously don’t have any contact with other people do you? Try discussing philosophy with Nationals or One Nation supporters, Daily Telegraph readers, 2GB listeners, etc., etc.. The more you come into contact with these types of people, the more you’ll be convinced that Australians, on a population level, have never been stupider.’
OK. I will put it another way. Australians have never spent more years per capita in education and/or training. If the teachers are no damn good, they are no damn good.
‘ We have instant access to all of the best music every played.
An utterly irrelevant point, unless you mean that now everyone can easily access the complete works of Bob Dylan.
We have instant access to all the literature ever produced in the whole history of humankind, in any language we care to choose. Like your music claim, utterly irrelevant to neo-liberalism AND socialism.’
Try driving a Trabie.
‘ We are nearly all cooled in summer and warmed at winter – whether at home, at work or at school.
Nearly, once again, is not good enough when the cost of energy keeps going up, and up, and up, due to the privatisation (thanks neo-liberalism) of the energy industry.’
Fifty years no-one at all had air con. You are systematically looking at the glass half empty.
‘ We have more housing space per capita than we have ever had.
And the highest level of household debt to pay for it.’
True. But it is there.
‘Our sewage is all treated.
There are still suburbs in Perth (probably other cities as well) that are not connected to the sewerage system, and still rely on septic tanks.’
True. But turds no longer float ashore at Bondi, etc, etc, etc.
‘The water we drink is plentiful and is close to the highest quality in the world.
Unless you live in Perth, or Sydney, or Adelaide, or….’
What does not kill you makes you stronger? In Australia you can drink the water and it will not make you sick. You begrudge every single good thing but that is a good thing. It is better than what you will get in most of Africa, South America and Asia. Go on, admit it!
‘Yep, neo-liberalism has had a profound effect on Australia.
By way of contrast, every single real attempt to deliver socialism has been a total disaster.’
Lets’ have a look at some of the socialist policies that have been “imposed” on Australians shall we?
Medicare? (fought against every step of the way by the forces of neo-liberalism)
Superannuation? (fought against every step of the way by the forces of neo-liberalism)
Minimum wage?(fought against every step of the way by the forces of neo-liberalism).’
I was referring to completely socialist states, not to social democratic states based on capitalism and a varying interplay with liberalism/neo-liberalism.
‘Yep, all of these things have been an unmitigated disaster for Australians. What a pity that neo-liberalism hasn’t managed (despite mighty efforts) to eradicate these aberrations.’
‘Your post is so filled with so many inaccuracies, untruths and utter bullshit, I’m starting to think you’re really Scott Morrison, or at the least, his press secretary.’
Yet another sign that our education system could do with improved teachers.
Sounds like the usual excellent standard of reporting by 4Corners.
You clearly haven’t seen the cover up by the ALP Ministers in relation to Roebourne.
Are you aware of how many children have been abused? The number of offenders? The fact that the abusers and abused are still in the same community and the ALP Ministers refuse to answer questions on what protections are or are not in place.
Another reason why political animals shouldnt be running vast portfolios.
I wonder if anyone will make the link between the budgets of Border Farce and Biosecurity/Quarantine.
But hey, its all laissez-faire until somebody loses an eye.
Are you seriously suggesting that Australia has been a socialist state, except when it has been interrupted by the Coalition?
Have a look at Venezuela. THAT is a socialist state run into the ground by real socialists.
Joyce and AG vehemently and successfully struggled against being corralled into Dutton’s Stasi.
But perhaps that might not have been such a bad idea after all.
And my oh my didn’t the right throw shit at Labor for the Desal plants 🙂
Sportsbet in Braddon now $1.50 Labor and $2.20 Lib. Longman is LNP $1.82 Labor $1.90 and PHON $16. Some punters seem to have taken the PHON preferences to LNP in Longman as a big plus for LNP. We will see but the “anti” nature of most PHON voters makes it a bit unlikely that the preference decision to LNP will make a lot of difference. Some pro Labor PHON voters are likely to take a short cut to directly support Labor which might mean a higher preference flow to PHON from the remainder but no real effect.
Lets hope a lot of PHON supporters put money on at $16. It will bump up the pool for other punters.
I was waiting for that one because I knew someone would throw it in. DG might have to cease sniffing at Perth’s water, after all.
Boerwar @ #544 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 7:23 pm
WOW! Are you trying to out-Chavez Chavez? Talk about “capital flight” if that one’s ever introduced, which thankfully no-one ever will.
The US has declared an economic jihad on Venezuela and that means deep shit for them no matter who runs the country.
One of the things that will happen in Longman for sure is that the Liberals will arrange for people to stand at every polling booth to hand out PHON HTVs.
This should stiffen the pref flows somewhat, compared to some other PHON election involvements.
steve 777 neoliberalism might be more a consequence of imperialism – a later stage of social development – human society is not struggle of fittest or raw in tooth etc, that is an erroneous shibboleth … if any to social thing we should return to social foundation – however idea of global trade based on treaty has much merit – societies have always traded across borders – problem is how it is controlled
Can someone explain to ESJ what cognitive dissonance is? Thanks.
Monday, July 2, 2018 at 9:52 pm
The US has declared an economic jihad on Venezuela and that means deep shit for them no matter who runs the country.’
It has been a big negative, I agree. But spending it all before you get it, and then not getting it at all, is a socialist state sort of thing to do. Chasing private capital out and chasing social capital out of the country was done by Chavez, not the US. He has gutted the middle class completely.
Did ESJ do something?
america has been economically whiteanting venezuala for yeaars – most of woes caused by sanctions and export of capital and cessation of business, all on because of vested interests of course
So, you want to go Bonobo rather than Chimapanzee?
It might work.
boerwar — socialists did not run venezuala into ground – it was economic conspiracy by business that achieved that
poroti- not me. Holding them to account for cost and schedule overruns is the job of Opposition. How’d the ALP go getting Perth Children’s Hospital and the Stadium Bridges across the line?
Unfortunately they did build a couple of new base load coal fired power plants to run the desalination plants and employ the denizens of Collie.
Poroti asked me what I would do if I were the Emperor. On the whole I lean to Caligula rather than to Hadrian or Vespasian. Why should the Neo Liberals have all the fun?
Compact Crank @ #554 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 9:28 pm
And the Coalition, who have had carriage of the Indigenous Affairs portfolio for the last 5 years, don’t either. Moreso because they are actually in a position to do something about it but have not.
‘hungry jack says:
Monday, July 2, 2018 at 9:58 pm
boerwar — socialists did not run venezuala into ground – it was economic conspiracy by business that achieved that’
It was not either/or. It was both.
Good night all. Peace be with you. I wish you sweet dreams.
Mexico – rooted one day, absolutely f^**#d the next. 5 years it’ll need IMF intervention or be heading down the Venezuelan path and the Wall will have been built because of the undeclared civil war.
Or, they might deliver on their promises. Yeah, right.
Compact Crank @ #570 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 9:46 pm
Remind us how long the ALP have been in power in WA again, Cranky? Then tell us how long Emperor Coin was in power. Then tell us how long Emperor Colin and the fedrral Coalition were both in power at the same time?
Cat momma- ALP have been in for a year and a half – when do they get off their L plates?
Compact Crank @ #592 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 10:02 pm
Cranky, you do know that Donald Drumpf has plans afoot to blow up the WTO? No more freely-flowing markets for you! Strap yourself in for a wild ride! I advise you putting your hard-earned into some WA Gold. 🙂
Catmomma- so the ALP now has no responsibility and the Minusterial cover ups and non-answers in QT and Estimates is completely acceptable- a paragon of transparency.
When will the Turnbull government take responsibility for anything, its been 5 years atleast?
Compact Crank @ #594 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 10:04 pm
ROFL, Cranky. Emperor Colin never got off his arse! He let the problems fester and exacerbated them, and likely led to a lot of them by attempting to throw Indigenous West Australians off their tribal lands and shuttered their communities.
But yeah, keep playing the Conservative tune of, ‘We’ll screw it up and then whinge at Labor for not fixing it up!’
Must do better, Cranky. Your motivations are entirely transparent. 🙂
Compact Crank @ #596 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 10:06 pm
Prove it with evidence, rather than just your say so.
Nicko – when the Senate allows them to govern unhindered.
Compact Crank @ #594 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 10:04 pm
It will take a LOT longer than 18 months to fix up the clusterfugging omnishambles in WA that Emperor Colin left behind.
I’m not sure how well or badly the Minister is going at resolving the issue, but whatever they are doing it couldn’t be worse than the LNP’s racist and stupid intervention.
CC’s over the top stuff makes me think this much more about racism than it is about the real problem. That is just how the LNP are.
Catmomma – read this:
Compact Crank @ #600 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 10:11 pm
I think I’ll save this one for after Labor wins the next federal election and the Coalition and the Conservative Crossbenchers try and frustrate their mandated agenda. 🙂