Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.
Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.
Albo speaking in qld today appeared ‘chastened’ Tristo. Didn’t have his usual ‘fighting tories’ demeanour. Whether or not he was agitating for the leadership … the past week seems to have effected him
Rex Douglas @ #393 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:57 pm
I do not think Bowen would get membership support NOR strong support from his faction.
Tanya would probably win the membership vote by a mile. She would probably also get strong caucus support
@Greensborough Growler
I should have said that is what Liberal Party are anticipating that Albanese would replace Shorten as Labor leader.
@jenauthor
That is good that he has come to his senses. However I still predict an spring election even if Labor retains both Braddon and Longman and swings to them are considered ‘modest’. Large swings to Labor in one or both electorates will delay the election until next year.
jenauthor @ #404 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:59 pm
Exactly how I observed Albanese at the NSW conference. Lonely as a cloud, a much diminished figure.
That’s what you get relying on the Murdoch media for your support for a leadership insurrection.
Tristo @ #403 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 7:01 pm
NACITFW!
The Project doing their best tonight to Concern Troll the latest Newspoll.
Some of the above comments are a joke. Tristo says Turnbull calling a double dissolution election in 2016 was poor judgement. Fact is he won a majority in the house and achieved a better senate than the previous one from 2013 to 2016. Certain legislation passed this term would not have had a hope with the previous senate. Fact is the only time the Coalition have led the polls in the previous two and half years was during the 2016 election campaign. So he got the timing right as well. He could only have a house election during his honeymoon period when he comfortable led the polls over Labor so did not go during that time. And if he can find a way to win the 2019 election with the new senate voting, with 16 senators with 6 year terms, he could get 17 or 18 senators elected and potentially have around 34 senators, plus bernardi, hanson and even centre alliance x 2 and requires one more friendly cross bencher and things will happen.
Golly says they are trying to wreck the place. Yeah they have only almost turned the budget around from the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd disaster when Abbott in 2013 copped an absolute mess with massive debt and unfunded liabilities such as Gonski and NDIS. The economy is now flying, I think whoever is elected in 2019 will have a lot less problems than the mess left in 2013.
Sue Leyonhjelm first and Sky can’t be seen to support him.
Win the case against Leyonhjelm and only then sue Sky.
To include Sky today would see Leyonhjelm and Sky piggyback their efforts and defend each other to the hilt.
daretotread. @ #402 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 7:01 pm
Sure, spend five years of building the profile and credentials of an individual and then ditching him for a complete unknown before an election where he and his Party have lead for over two years?
What a load of rubbish.
GG – rofl not. How about telling the rest of us what you mean rather than using acronyms …. it is too late in the day
itsthevibe @ #374 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:26 pm
Well, you can’t be talking about me then. 100% rock-solid support of Labor in 2013.
Tania Plibersek is more popular than Albo. IMO swapping Shorten for Plibersek would hand Turnbull another term on a platter. Ditto swapping Shorten for Albo.
Meanwhile, I have the epitaph for Turnbull’s political tombstone, to be inscribed shortly after the polling closes in the next Fed election.
‘Veni, vidi, voti.’
We came, we saw, we voted.
michael @ #408 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 7:04 pm
Neo-lib policies have failed society. That’s a fact.
Michael 😆
jenauthor @ #410 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 7:07 pm
I don’t usually give hints in my special quizzes.
But, because I like you, the first three words are” Not a chance”!
“Neo-lib policies have failed society. That’s a fact.”
Not like we’ve had elections, or rights to vote or anything like that just the magic neo-lib thing happened and no one is to blame. Seems divorced from, you know, actual history.
michael,
Yeah they have only almost turned the budget around from the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd disaster
No, it wasn’t the ‘R-G-R disaster’, it was the Neoliberal’s Global Financial Crisis disastrous mess that Labor had to clean up!
Plus, are you seriously thinking no one can count how big the Deficit is now, and compare it to what it was under Labor!?!
More fool you.
WeWantPaul @ #417 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 7:11 pm
Voters need to have the courage to step off the neo-lib merry-go-round.
Tristo says Monday, July 2, 2018 at 6:54 pm
If Labor moved against Shorten I doubt Turnbull could get to Yarralumla fast enough.
@michael
Actually the Coalition had a strong lead in the opinion polls in the months after Turnbull became Prime Minister which disappeared by early 2016, then it alternated between either Labor or the Coalition leading slightly until the election.
The intention of the double dissolution election as I remember, combined with Senate voting reforms (which the Greens supported) was to clear the Senate of various micro-party senators.
It did do that, however I don’t think the government anticipated the cross-bench that was elected. Although I do admit the cross-bench that was election in the double dissolution election has been useful to the government.
bc @ #420 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 7:13 pm
I still think it won’t happen as Labor doesn’t have the mettle. They’d rather risk losing with Bill than removing him.
Tristo @ #421 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 4:16 pm
Michael is right about Turnbull’s timing of the DD.
It was perfect, his poll lead basically evaporated straight after the election. 🙂
Jenauthor@6:59pm
C@tmomma@7:02pm
Yesterday I was watching ABC report on NSW ALP conference. One of the camera shots was on Albanese and he did not look happy (his face looked rather sort of ashen)
I used to have a lot of respect for him when he was Manager of Parliamentary business and Minister in Gillard government. He obivously worked very hard for G government although he did vote for her in leadership ballot.
But what changed was the way he panicked from Greens challenge in 2016 elections and took the help of Murdoch press (Daily Tele). One smack down speech from Keating was enough for him to win with increased 2PP vote.
Peta Credlin tees off!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1013701193011326977
I am curious to know why Neo Lib policies are regarded as a total failure.
We have free universal health care at the highest level of technical competence ever.
Australians have never been wealthier.
Our food is, by historical standards, cheap. It never runs out.
Our food meets stringent health standards.
No one in Australia goes to bed hungry.
No one in Australia starves to death.
Nearly everyone can afford clothes to keep warm and dry.
We have, in the NDIS, the most massive attempt in the history of the Federation to address disability.
Our spending on social security at around $180 billion a year from the Federal budget alone, is the highest ever.
We have totally free education to end high school level.
We have heavily subsidised education at tertiary level.
Australians, at a population level, have never been better educated.
We live the longest we have ever lived.
We have instant access to all of the best music every played.
We have instant access to all the literature ever produced in the whole history of humankind, in any language we care to choose.
We are nearly all cooled in summer and warmed at winter – whether at home, at work or at school.
We have more housing space per capita than we have ever had.
Our sewage is all treated.
The water we drink is plentiful and is close to the highest quality in the world.
By way of contrast, every single real attempt to deliver socialism has been a total disaster.
Michael @7.04pm
You are a perfect example of the moronic lemming like commenting from followers of the Murdoch press and Sky.
Broaden your reading and accumulate some accuracy. Have a look at the budget deficit.
Seven year projections! You exemplify exactly the bullshit we need to eliminate.
@Rex Douglas
I meant hypothetically of course, I agree the Labor party caucus have enough common sense not to do that especially the party has been consistently leading in the opinion polls for such a long time.
The next Federal Election will be the first to be run under the new Senate Vote Counting regime, or whatever the technical terminology is for it, that was the reason for Turnbull calling the DD. I’m no fan of Turnbull, but very happy to credit him with improving the outcomes of Senate voting so that the Unrepresentative Swill are at least slightly closer to being representative of what people thought they were voting for.
I just cannot believe that the ALP would knife Shorten before the next election unless their FP vote went south of 25%. But, then again after R-G-R, I never thought the LNP would be so stupid as to knife a first term PM.
Boerwar – Every one of those listed achievements have come about as a result of social democracy a.k.a. democratic socialism. Neoliberalism would see all of those things abolished, and the money saved in the process funneled to the super-rich.
‘JimmyD says:
Monday, July 2, 2018 at 7:27 pm
Boerwar – Every one of those listed achievements have come about as a result of social democracy a.k.a. democratic socialism. Neoliberalism would see all of those things abolished, and the money saved in the process funneled to the super-rich.’
Something does not parse here. Why do people not blame democratic socialism for our the catastrophic situation they believe they have identified in Australia?
@Compact Crank
I agree the government introduced very sensible senate voting reforms. However they should have scrapped above the line voting while they were at it. However I just don’t think Turnbull anticipated such a varied cross-bench being elected due to the double dissolution election.
Trioli goes Leyonhjelm on 7:30
Boerwar,
At the very least you should acknowledge the imperfection of the Neoliberal agenda, which led to the Global Financial Crisis?
Boerwar
I’m speechless!
Fairness, balance perhaps, continuity………
Boerwar
We did not have universal healthcare because of neoliberalism we have is despite it. Remember wee Johnny was keen to put the boot into that. Stopped only by his learning it is electoral death. Neoliberalism and clean water? Ask the people in flint how it is going. We did not have the full serving of Neoliberalism but you get the idea from looking at the US of A and you can stick it where the sun don’t shine..
jenauthor @ #432 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 5:30 pm
Wow I’m surprised he fronted!
C
I might have added to the above list that never in the history of Australia have women earned so much relative to men or had so much wealth relative to men. 58% of tertiary students are women. 150 years ago the figures was 0%.
Beyond that, I can’t think of any system that is perfect and I can think of no system that can’t do with significant improvement.
By way of contrast, Countries that seriously adopted socialism generally succeeded in making everyone poorer, sicker, less educated with food, air and water that were rather more dangerous to use than is the case in Australia ATM.
All systems have crises, IMO, and the upshot of the GFC might just as readily be taken as a sign of system resilience as a sign of system failure.
Tristo,
He never had any power to change the outcome for the Cross-bench at the 2013 election – but he had to call the DD as soon as the changes to the Senate voting were through because the Nutjob Cross benchers would have gone from herding cats to herding jellyfish.
The sooner we get rid of the Senate the better – gerrymandered unrepresentative swill.
Pro-guns, misogynistic and given plenty of opportunity to spread his filth.
poroti
Something does not parse here.
Everything that was bad, is bad or is going to be bad is a consequence of neo liberalism and everything that was good, is good or is going to be good is a consequence of social democracy AND the two systems somehow live side by side, at the same time, and in the same economy?
The Senate is the State’s house
Hence the 10 Senate seats from each State – before Territories
So should the Territories (NT and ACT) also have 10 Senate seats?
My view is “Yes” to retain the integrity of the Parliament
So 80 Senators
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-02/mexico-elections-what-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-victory-means/9932218
Today’s seismic result shows voters, weary from a war on drugs that has failed to staunch the bloodshed, have decisively rejected the two major parties’ platforms.
This political upheaval is unprecedented in modern Mexico.
:::::
Mr Lopez Obrador is a left-wing firebrand who journalists compare to Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sander
BW – because we have a Coalition run by kleptocrats and spivs who are hell-bent on cutting taxes on their mates, selling everything that’s not bolted down, and slashing funding to whatever’s left. Not only that, we have a government that plots to cut wages and working conditions, destroys our environment, and cedes our cities to money-grubbing developers. That’s neoliberalism for you.
Those legacies you cited are exactly that – vestigial legacies, likely, and soon, to be lost in a new era of war of all against all.
Except that Obrador actually won.
Peg
He is already talking like Chavez.
If he ACTs like Chavez then three things will follow as night follows day: (1) capital flight, (2) social capital flight, and (3) queues for toilet paper.
Observer – the charade that the Senate is the State’s House has a figment of the imagination. The only way it might slightly be seen as that is when you have one vital vote such as Harridine who pork barrelled the buggery out of Senate voting. Otherwise, it is an embuggerance that stops the will of the voting public being enacted by the elected Government.
@Compact Crank
With a normal half senate election in 2016, the cross-bench (expect for the Greens) would be likely the following.
Pauline Hanson, Glenn Lazarus, Ricky Muir, Bob Day, Jackie Lambie, Zhenya Wang, David Leyonhjelm, Nick Xenophon and probably another person from the Xenophon group. Also the following election would have gotten rid a large number of them.
Medibankwas introduced in 1975 by the Whitlam Government as Medibank, and was limited to paying customers only in 1976 by the Fraser Government. Hawke reintroduced it as Medicare in 1984.
Please identify the ‘neoliberalism’ here.
(Why did liberalism attain the prefix????? It is not new or different from liberalism).
JD
So the difference between social democracy and neo liberalism is how, when and what wealth to share. This begs the biggie: how wealth is generated in the first place.