Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.
Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.
Nicholas – at 5:33pm
Bingo!
My daughter’s family could be case study 2, except she has 3 girls under 8, not just 2. Her husband works, but because granddaughter No.1 has significant health issues, she cannot do anything from ad hoc work. Combined family income is south of $80K pa. She is lucky to have ‘the bank of Andrew’ help out to the tune of tens of thousands per year. I simply cannot comprehend how her peers who are in a similar position but without fairly well off parents cope at all.
Call me silly but isn’t the current state pollbludger swing applied to the result at the last election, probably the best guide to how the bi-elections are going to go, particularly given the terrible record of individual seat polling?
Wayne understands politics about as well as he understands punctuation.
And, I feel very strongly that if the Coalition win the next Federal election, there will be no coming back for Australia. Privatisation is proceeding apace, in ways that do not need legislative approval. The outsourcing of so many Public Service jobs to SERCO and similar companies will be completed in the next term of the coalition.
The tax cuts, business and personal, will kick in, meaning that the tax take will be tiny. Reversing that here will be just as difficult here as it currently is on the US.
WeWantPaul @ #351 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 5:56 pm
WWP,
There is no sex (bi or otherwise) in by elections apart from the fact that voters will continue to be “rogered”.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #349 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 5:47 pm
I feel those are poor metrics across the board because they’re dealing in income after all available tax deductions have been applied. Someone on a high (or even, very high) income who’s good at coming up with deductions, has lots of negatively-geared investment properties, and so on may still end up with a relatively small taxable income and then inaccurately feel entitled to label themselves as middle-class.
Come up with some figures that look at total income before deductions, or taxable income plus investment value, or something along those lines.
Douglas and Milko
This is why I have moments of sadness, remembering how Australia used to be. But that was a long time ago.
David Leyonhelm trippled down on his comments about SHY on 702 Sydney.
Sorry for the misspelling and perpetually bad grammar … at one point on at least one browser I had a speller and grammar nazi tool helping me …
Everything has been thrown at Shorten and Labor this last cycle with media lackies working overtime and blatantly displaying their bias. Shorten helps with a miss step and they hone in like crazy to against something most Australians want. They do not care about this or any other detail, the only agenda is Kill Bill. All this effort and they still trail. a terrible time for Labor and this is their best result and also the newscorp campaign for Albo is derailed. A warning for Labor but I predict this is a good lesson and we will see the polls return back soon.
Ides of March.not logged in @ #358 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:05 pm
Publicity and notoriety is his only hope of re-election.
Ignore the cretin.
SHY does not deserve this shit regardless of whether I agree with her or not.
WeWantPaul @ #359 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:07 pm
Off to Auschwitz for you then!
@WeWantPaul
I believe Labor will win both Longman and especially Braddon.
Regarding Braddon, Labor since 1998 have only lost it when it got trounced nationally which was in 2004 and 2013. That has been pretty much the same as neighboring Bass, Tasmania has been consistently at a federal level the most pro-Labor state in the country. They have won a majority a two party preferred vote in the state at every election since 1993. I don’t think the Liberals are going to win Braddon in the by-election or win any seats in the state at the federal election.
Longman I predict will be a quite close contest, however Labor will over the line. That is due to Labor winning it last time only through quite favorable preference flows from the minor that would normally had been the case.
DTT – I am surprised you still think Labor just needs someone with passion and intellect for leader.
The days of the Great Labor Messiah went out of the window with Kevin Rudd.
The Light on the Hill and that kind of guff went out to the window long ago.
The current leader has to be nimble and out-hink the forces of conservatism. No easy matter these days. There is no White Knight – a la Bob Hawke – waiting in the wings to take the Labor party into government – just someone like Shorten who has done 5 years hard slog while the Liberals have turned over a couple of leaders and have been behind in 30+ opinion polls. The situation is not a winning one just yet, just who would you suggest could land the bacon between now and the next election?
GG exactly. He’s studied Trump and likely thinks it’s his route (heaven forbid he gets a root 😆 ) to staying in senate.
Methinks gonski
I think it is very important for journalism, if it is to be a tool helpful to democracy, to find a way to self regulate such that they can clearly (and early) identify fox (and sky in Australia) as something separate to, and distinct from journalism.
There are a number of journos who get really cranky when they are assessed collectively with fellow journos from the same stable, the reality that they are rightly assessed with journalism as a whole seems to beyond their understanding.
That is not to say one cannot differentiate between stables and individual journos and of course in ones personal consumption of journalism one does, but journalism as a whole can and should be assessed on a national collective level, and at the moment by their ongoing choice to include the fox affiliates in the definition they belittle their own whole endeavour.
hat currently in Australia Sky, and other fox affiliates in Asutralia
GG, Jen
If he gets left of the Libs on the senate ticket than he might have a reasonable chance.
“I believe Labor will win both Longman and especially Braddon. ”
That is what bludgertrack is definitely saying, in fact there is a few points of comfort for late movement / error (gods forbid)
@Tricot
I agree with your assessment, I seriously believe Bill Shorten is very underrated as a political leader and potentially make a great Prime Minister. I don’t believe either Albanese or Pilbersek would have been as good as political leaders as he has.
Labor almost won in 2016 and Coalition lost virtually all of the lead they had after Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as leader. Bill Shorten’s only flaw in my opinion, he is not bold enough and his support for high immigration levels (which is not justifiable given unemployment and underemployment levels).
Lizzie
The LNP Coalition will not win the next election. They ‘re trying to wreck the place before they leave. A bit like unruly tenants. Such irony.
The LNP media, polling companies and trolls have achieved much to keep the despots in power and no matter how long they hold on to no hope, they will be removed because they haven’t acted in the best interests of all Australians. They have completely trashed fairness and balance. The well off should be thankful that Labor is not as vindictive.
The troll rubbish that gets a fair go on this site are just that rubbish.
Rex owns hypocrisy, ESJ a failed comedian and dwayne just basic.
The CPG and print media are both part of a sunset industry. Ask any schoolkid whether we should continue to use carbon based fuel and they’ll dismiss you as an ignorant relic of a past its use by date.
Look towards a better and more efficient future.
You all agree with me that our great LNP are on the come back trail and Turnbull will lead our great nation again after the next election
grimace says Monday, July 2, 2018 at 5:51 pm
My wife already does for many things. However, shipping books using freight forwarders is rather expensive.
Golly
I don’t really believe that LNP can win, but I’ve never counted my chickens, etc.
The greatest danger is, rather as D & M has suggested, that Truffles will hold on for as long as possible before going to an election, and in that time will drag us further down the slope of inequality and unfairness. And coal 🙁
I note with faint disgust that most of the pearl-clutching about Labor “rats” is, as usual, coming from those self-proclaimed loyalists who were themselves quite happy to rat on the party at the ballot box in 2013.
@lizzie
Turnbull go to an election in spring, even if Labor retains both Braddon and Longman (which I am predicting). Since I also predict the swings to Labor will be ‘modest’ and be seen as a good result for the government. Plus I believe the government is of the opinion they would be toast if Bill Shorten gets replaced as Labor leader.
Turnbull has had a history of making judgments which were quite poor. His decision to go to a double dissolution election in 2016 was an prime example.
Tristo
So who do the Libs think will replace Shorten and wipe the floor with them?
itsthevibe @ #374 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:26 pm
My calendar says this is 2018.
The trouble with nostalgia is that the past was usually less rosy that we think AND is highly selective
Rex Douglas @ #379 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 3:38 pm
Good, it was a pathetic and irrelevant comment!
itsthevibe
I thought votes were secret.
Rex Douglas says: Monday, July 2, 2018 at 6:38 pm
Rex at last posts something I can fully agree with.
lizzie @ #377 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:33 pm
Good point. Why they’d want Shorten replaced is a mystery given his unpopularity.
“And, I feel very strongly that if the Coalition win the next Federal election, there will be no coming back for Australia. Privatisation is proceeding apace, in ways that do not need legislative approval. The outsourcing of so many Public Service jobs to SERCO and similar companies will be completed in the next term of the coalition.
The tax cuts, business and personal, will kick in, meaning that the tax take will be tiny. Reversing that here will be just as difficult here as it currently is on the US.”
agree. and it is pretty apparent that corporate australia – including most media groups including fairfax – knows it too. There will be a concerted effort to get Turnbull back in.
We could dream that Leyonhelm gets bankrupted and expelled from the senate.
Sarah should sue Sky (now fully owned by News) as well as Leyonhjelm.
Tricot @ #361 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:12 pm
Tricot
It is not as simple assaying passion.
It is the X factor, but defining it is difficult. I think if there is anything that the US pattern can tell us it is that “hard slog” is just not delivering. Now we are not in the US and the patterns are different but we cannot assume that steady just may not get over the line.
However I DO think intellect matters – A LOT. I suspect it is the most under rated aspect of our politicians and one that Labor in particular fails to appreciate.
Despite all the hype by many I do NOT think that voters want the boy next door, the pretty girl over the road or a sports star as PM.
If we just look at the post war period, almost all the SUCCESSFUL ALP leaders have been seen as “intellectuals”
Successful ie winning from opposition
Whitlam AND Cairns both seen as “intellectuals”
Hawke – sure he was a wild man but also an “intellectual, Oxford guy)
Rudd – obviously an “intellectual” – his main positive
Hanging in in a second term
Keating (OK he was extremely smart but probably not seen as an intellectual)
Gillard – deliberately cultivated a bogan image
Unsuccessful
Calwell
Beazely (he was smart but I do not think he had a public image as an intellectual – I might be wrong
Crean – definitely seen as a union guy – not an intellectal)
Latham – definitely seen as a bogan
So I think it is seriously under rated
Has Turnbull made any comment on Leyonhjem, or doesn’t he want to upset his Senate friend?
Hey Rex.
Maybe stop spending the time bashing Labor, but rather spend the time bashing LNP and the lack of inequality of women and lack of Minister for Women.
Otherwise for people like yourself vote in people like zone Nation/pup party/Xenophon/etc fascists of this country.
Like the gun nutter who is being sued.
All yas hypercrits.
And don’t stand against the Murdoch empire!
A hung parliament after the next election wouldn’t surprise me.
As for Reachtel……..they got the result in Darling Range very, very wrong, so I’d take any pronostications from their individual seat polling with a huge grain of salt.
Sohar @ #386 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:47 pm
What’s her loss?
Reputational damage at the edges?
The defendant being a dickhead?
Free publicity?
Him out of parliament and her winning at the next election?
Q&A tonight being hosted by Hamish McDonald – waiting for the complaints on social media that a host of the Project shouldn’t be allowed on the national broadcaster.
@lizzie
Anthony Albanese would be the most likely replacement for Bill Shorten.
I believe the Liberals are attempting to destabilize the Labor leadership and thereby ‘divide and conqueror’.
Evan @ #392 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:52 pm
You really are a dickhead aren’t you!
Hamish hosts the RN breakfast show when Fran isn’t about.
Tristo @ #393 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:54 pm
NACITFW.
Tristo @ #394 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:54 pm
I think Bowen is the next in line.
I feel sorry for Mrs Leyonhjelm.
Ha, ha, ha…. the new “Kill Bill” strategy is not working (as it was obvious it wouldn’t)… The ALP is still on a firm winning position in spite of the desperate re-calculation of preferences allocation from One Nation….
What’s next?…. What’s left in the, by now, pretty empty bag of desperate strategies of the Liberal party and their supporters in the MSM?
Oh, I see, let’s correct the 2PP with a bonus 1% for the Coalition, to be explained…. somehow…. There you go: It’s a TIE, 50% vs 50%…. Ha, ha, ha….
Just call an election, Waffler…. and we will tell you what the 2PP is!!!…. I see that Abbott is ready to recover the leadership of the Coalition…. if circumstances allow it: “‘Let’s see how things work out’: Tony Abbott talks leadership return” (https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/07/02/12/37/abbott-discusses-return-to-leadership)
Turnbull preferred PM?…. Ha!…. he is highly unstable even as preferred leader of the Liberal party!!
Dave@6:07pm
The thing is Shorten initially made the right call with the repeal of tax cuts for businesses over $10 million dollars. But the MSM and CPG journalists like Crowe (he called his decision a blunder and did not atone for it), Hartcher (criticised Shorten for going to war with Business), Katherine Murphy( she calls herself a progressive), Gratten, Phil Coorey(he said the later stance to not repeal was better than repeal) went after him like he has committed a mortal political sin (no such protest when Abbott said “axe the carbon tax”.
The people marked him & ALP down because he went back on his decision (a sign of weakness.).
The nervous nellies in shadow cabinet like Bowen, Charmers did not help.
Albanese with his speech gave an opening to CPG and MSM( although according to Hartcher he got clearance from Shorten office)
ABC’s Sabra Lane put herself in the middle of ad war between ALP and LNP.
I never really cared what Murdoch press wrote. Whenever they argue for something the opposite is right for the country.
Rex Douglas @ #396 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:57 pm
He is a far superior choice to Albanese.
Anyway, Albanese will never get the votes of the NSW Right in Caucus, or probably any other member of the Right in the FPLP.