Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A slight gain for the Coalition from the latest Newspoll, as Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings maintain their improving trend.

Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.

Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. We live in a complex mish mash of a system, contributed to by a variety of ideologies. It is far too simplistic to attribute where we are today to a single ideology.

    In any case, my suggestion is to start by working out common definitions or you’ll just end up talking past each other. Define neoliberalism and socialism :P.

  2. – – Otherwise, it is an embuggerance that stops the will of the voting public being enacted by the elected Government. – –

    Except when it saves the country from an elected government enacting legislation no-one voted for and few want.

    Or when it sheds light on hidden agendas and covered up facts.

    Damn those pesky senate embuggerers.

  3. GG

    She was suspended for writing in the ‘strap’ (text below the picture?) what L was saying live on air without Cameron (or the other bloody outsider goose who was on at the time) stopping L.

    I hope she sues Sky’s arse off.

  4. Brisbane was largely unsewered until the sewerage system was put in place through the 1960s and 70s. Lord Mayor Clem Jones championed this, and is widely recognised for the achievement. He was a Labor mayor.

    Please identify the liberalism in this. Or ‘neo’ if it makes you feel more current.

  5. DN
    You would have to ask the Greens how to define ‘socialism’. After all, that is what most of them aspire to.

  6. Tristo,

    You have no way of being able to make that claim with any certainty. Only through the changes to Senate Voting and Counting will the effects of unknowable preference swap deals be killed off.

  7. Leyonhjelm defends himself with the claim that SH-Y accused all men of being rapists and does not resile from what he has said to her.

    Sounds familiar.

  8. @Compact Crank

    Not to mention the powers that the Australia Senate has, including blocking supply. There are not many upper houses in the world with the powers that the Senate has.

  9. Fairfax headline now:

    Hanson-Young engages lawyers over comments
    Senator Hanson-Young’s office confirmed legal letters had been sent to Senator Leyonhjelm, Sky News and 3AW radio.

  10. I like this. Found it when searching back through Humphries twitter feed.
    Hope it works….


  11. Peg
    What DID SH-Y say, exactly?
    Apart from calling L a ‘creep’ to his face, which which I have no particular issue.
    His response is reported by SH-Y as being, ‘F*** Off.”

  12. @Compact Crank

    I was looking at who was elected in 2010 and 2013, a large number of that likely cross-bench I proposed were elected in 2013.

    If there had been a half senate election in 2016 One Nation would have just gotten one senator elected from Queensland. Along with perhaps a senator from the Xenophon group in South Australia.

  13. Well, I’ll be voting Labor whoever leads it come the next Federal election. The agenda of the current Government is poisonous, its incompetence in advancing it being its only saving grace. And I wouldn’t vote for the candidate for any party that would have a fascist misanthrope like Dutton as a member, let alone in a prominent position and a serious possible future leader.

    Bill Shorten stumbled last week, but he’s hardly a patch on Stumblebum-in-chief, aka Malcolm Turnbull, who leads a party determined to block action on climate change in spite of his past expressed beliefs, who foisted an absurd, wasteful and divisive fake plebiscite on the community against his previously stated beliefs and hasn’t lifted a finger to advance the cause of the Republic, in spite of having led the cause in a past life. And, of course, Labor’s leadership problems are nothing compared to the Government’s, no matter how much the media talk one and downplay the other.

  14. Boerwar
    If you want to have a productive discussion you have to use the same language. *Both* sides stating their definitions to check if they match is a good starting point. In any case, some non-existent collective personality labelled “The Greens” is not even involved in this discussion, it’s between you and other <keyword>individuals</keyword> on PB.

  15. C
    I believe it interviewed L who may have taken the opportunity to dig his hole a bit deeper.
    Sky has already apologized without reservation.

  16. C@tmomma,
    Your return to our Bludgers’ discourse this evening could not be more timely and welcome because of your profound understanding of the complexities that are part and parcel of decision making/deal cutting within the Labor Party.

    The ubiquitous MSM speculations about Shorten’s leadership call to mind that famous line from H. L. Mencken, one of the most perspicacious political/cultural pundits in American history: “There is always an easy solution to every human problem — neat, plausible and wrong.”

  17. Boerwar
    This begs the biggie: how wealth is generated in the first place.

    Well I think we can both agree that cutting taxes on the big end of town when average people are feeling insecure in their employment and housing is not going to expand the pie.

    I, for one, believe in the Labor ethos that it is education that creates opportunities for wealth and prosperity. A government that cuts funding to public schools and universities, and lowers the HECS threshold, is not a government that believes in expanding the pie, but instead believes that those who already have most of the wealth should have even more of it.

    Neoliberalism is utterly opposed to government policies that redistribute wealth in the name of creating equality. Neoliberalism posits that inequality is fundamentally GOOD. Hayek was the number one proponent of this abhorrent idea.

  18. DN
    The Greens are involved in this discussion because every single Greens who ever ignored where they are taking the environment is just as vehemently certain that Neo Liberalism is the font of all evil and that only proud Socialists like Corbyn will ever rescue the UK from the mire and proud Socialists like Tsipras will do the same for Greece and only a proud socialist like Maduro will lift Venezuela from Chavez’s mire. Naturally no sooner does Mexico elect a president who promises to copy Chavez than the Greens start wetting their collective pants.

  19. Confessions @ #436 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 7:36 pm

    jenauthor @ #432 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 5:30 pm

    Trioli goes Leyonhjelm on 7:30

    Wow I’m surprised he fronted!

    Why, that’s his style.

    I’m surprised the ABC got him yet another venue to spout his bile. He was aqlso on Richard Glover’s drive show on Sydney ABC radio, where he was apparently given the opportunity to repeat the slur three times.

    I hope she sues the Sky surrogate, the ABC as well.

  20. “Embuggereance” – great word.

    Of course, the Senate is a party house, not a States’ house. However, it has the great value of being elected by proportional representation.

    It’s funny how the enthusiasm of conservatives for bicameralism waxes and wanes (not ‘Waynes’) according to the political exigencies of the day.

    I don’t have much sympathy for the view that minor party members and independents have excessive power. The big parties hand it to them by insisting that their own members be cyphers for the party line.

  21. JD

    Never has the pie been bigger than it is now and never has more wealth been redistributed in Australia than is currently the case, I believe.
    I suspect that there are three systemic issues that may wreck the joint: (1) middle class wealth (stocks and flows) is being redistributed both upwards and downwards (2) international capital is essentially out of control of the demos and has almost completely severed its realationship with the cost of labor in any one polity (3) globally the latter issue will become worse not better, not as a result of more or less education but as a result of AI and robotics.

    In terms of investing more in education, I believe that the TAFE system needs to be renationalized, decorrupted and upgraded significantly. Trade skills training in particular needs to be ramped up.

    Apart from that, education may serve to displace some of the 900,000 foreigners who are working in Australia. But not many, IMO.

    At the same time, never has there been so many people with degrees not applying them directly to their employment.

  22. ‘DisplayName says:
    Monday, July 2, 2018 at 8:06 pm

    Stop being a coward and hiding behind The Greens.’
    Sticks and stone. The Socialists in the Greens Party are hiding behind the environmentalists and parking the environmental vote where it is have zero impact. But they are far too gutless and cunning to admit that they are not an environmental party.

  23. I have no doubt that if Shorten were PM, and a Liberal party, in opposition, had been ahead for 35 or so polls, the conservative media would howling at the moon like a pack of wolves.
    Gillard found herself in this situation and her every move, from falling down or loosing her shoe was seen as a portent of disaster. And to think Rudd had a 52-48 lead in the polls when he was turfed out. Who can make any sense of politics and its reporting?

  24. Boerwar, you are discussing this issue with individuals on PB. The least you could do is look at them while you’re talking, instead of at some fictitious hive mind.

  25. S777

    The big parties hand it to them by insisting that their own members be cyphers for the party line.

    Give that poster a pack of never ending Tim Tams.

  26. adrian :

    I can get him turning up to a cozy all male environment, but not to be interviewed by a woman!

  27. So lets go through Turnbulls achievements shall we;

    Cut school funding and called it Gonski 2.0

    Reinstated the ABCC, more industrial deaths have followed.

    Done nothing of substance with energy policy, NEG aims to do nothing, in the mean time prices have gone up, and emissions continue to increase.

    Destroyed the NBN, now will be stuck with a broadband network that struggles to achieve even a minimum of 12/1, this a big drag on the economy i will be for many years.

    Got rid of the tribunal that tried to improve trucker conditions in order to reduce road incidence. Now their have been a spike in Trucking deaths.

    Initiated a 144 Billion tax cut based on fanciful economic predictions, will most likely create a massive debt bomb in a few years time, and I haven’t included the company tax cuts they want to ram through.

    Wage stagnation, cut in penalty rates is hurting, and he has nothing to address it but faith in the same old trickle down nonsense with his tax cuts.

  28. This is a moment in time re shy . Senator L should not be able to get away this it is disgraceful, not only on a national broadcaster but in our parliament.

    Please Australia do not make this about poor men, leadership is needed.

    Hope Senator HY takes him to the cleaners, should not have to he should be kicked out by now.

    Moment in time

  29. GG

    Good article, IMO. One line is only partially true, IMO:

    ‘Male politicians are not routinely subjected to sexualised innuendo when they express legitimate views.’

    Males politicians are routinely castigated as ‘dickheads’, ‘pricks’, ‘wankers’ and we even had a poster on PB who thought that some male politicians must be behaving the way they were because they ‘have little weiners’. ‘Balls up’ is used as a term to indicate a stuff up. ‘Scrott’ is clearly a play on ‘scrotum’. And so on and so forth.

    That small point cleared up, the weight of bastardry in this domain clearly lies with the L’s of the world against the SH-Y’s of the world.

  30. ‘DisplayName says:
    Monday, July 2, 2018 at 8:14 pm

    Boerwar, you are discussing this issue with individuals on PB. The least you could do is look at them while you’re talking, instead of at some fictitious hive mind.’

    I will spell it out for you. I am deliberately ignoring your rude juvenile name calling, your pathetic analysis, and your fascist attempts to tell me what to write in my posts.

  31. “Sadly the objective reality is labor has flatlined Under it’s present leadership”…. Edwina, your Liberal stormtrooping skills are getting flaccid…. just like Turnbull’s future…

    It’s 51% ALP at the latest Newspoll…. and the only thing that has flatlined is the losing position of Turnbull and his mob: 35 consecutive negative Newspolls…. and counting…. and Abbott is ready to take over as leader of the Liberal party in Opposition…

    It’s time to start thinking how is the Liberal Party Civil War going to further unfold in Opposition…. will the Party of Menzies survive?… and if so, in what shape?

  32. Michelle Grattan

    If David Leyonhjelm hasn’t apologised to Sarah Hanson-Young by the time parliament resumes next month, the Senate should tell him to do so.

    The recalcitrant Liberal Democrat senator might tell his upper house colleagues to go jump, but the Senate needs to take a stand for the sake of its own reputation.

    The outraged Greens have already flagged they’ll move a censure over Leyonhjelm’s smearing of their senator.

  33. If Labor was sensible it would kick out the 3 weakest performers in shadow cabinet and invite Di Natale and 2 colleagues to join . That would be a transformational move.

  34. Boer-

    “We have free universal health care at the highest level of technical competence ever.
    Australians have never been wealthier.
    Our food is, by historical standards, cheap. It never runs out.
    Our food meets stringent health standards.
    No one in Australia goes to bed hungry.
    No one in Australia starves to death.
    Nearly everyone can afford clothes to keep warm and dry.
    We have, in the NDIS, the most massive attempt in the history of the Federation to address disability.
    Our spending on social security at around $180 billion a year from the Federal budget alone, is the highest ever.
    We have totally free education to end high school level.
    We have heavily subsidised education at tertiary level.
    Australians, at a population level, have never been better educated.
    We live the longest we have ever lived.
    We have instant access to all of the best music every played.
    We have instant access to all the literature ever produced in the whole history of humankind, in any language we care to choose.
    We are nearly all cooled in summer and warmed at winter – whether at home, at work or at school.
    We have more housing space per capita than we have ever had.
    Our sewage is all treated.
    The water we drink is plentiful and is close to the highest quality in the world.”

    Given that list, can it be truly argued that Australia ever embraced “neo liberalism” – whatever that means, especially under labor governments? Or is “neoliberalism” just a convenient label for Greens and Trots to chant “lib-lab: same-same”?

  35. Boerwar

    I will spell it out for you. I am deliberately ignoring your rude juvenile name calling, your pathetic analysis, and your fascist attempts to tell me what to write in my posts.

    I will spell it out for you. It is disrespectful to the people you are purporting to have a conversation with, to use the pretence at conversation with them as a proxy for your propaganda regarding some entity which isn’t even present.

  36. [Sue Leyonhjelm first and Sky can’t be seen to support him.
    Win the case against Leyonhjelm and only then sue Sky.
    To include Sky today would see Leyonhjelm and Sky piggyback their efforts and defend each other to the hilt.]

    Suing parties sequentially is bad business especially when you have a meritorious claim.

  37. An early picture of the struggling family in Vaucluse. By the way, 5000 pounds would be worth $155,000 today.

  38. “Katherine Murphy( she calls herself a progressive)”…. But she is not really. She is an anti-Labor Turnbullite. She is only “progressive” in so far as she is definitely against Abbott, but in favour of Turnbull and the Libs. Are the Libs “progressive”?…

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