Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.
Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.
The SMH for years has been aimed at those living in affluent suburbs not far from the city. It’s only natural that they would find a “typical” family within their readership who happened to be struggling on $350k pa. Writers like Crowe represent that attitude.
The Canberra Times is similar. If you live in one of the older, more affluent suburbs in “old Canberra”, then the Times is for you. Every gripe and grievance against the ACT government gets prominent coverage. If you live further afield, then forget it.
Shorter Newspoll. Labor wins another poll. Turnbull racks up 35 successive losses. All results within MOE.
Carry on!
“I have been watching ABC News 24 for over 90minutes now …….”
My sincere condolences.
ESJ@7:15am
I agree ALP should be 56-57 2PP. Also, 51-49 is due to Shorten being opposition leader. However, MSM and CPG stopped counting for how many polls MT government has lost newspolls because they are bored with it. Even ABC news breakfast stopped mentioning it. They are now making up this leadership tension. Do you know how many newspolls did MT lose? 35. Even Gillard government lost only 33 polls before she was replaced. I believe 35 is new record, which no other government has recorded till now since Newspoll started polling.
MSM journalists say that the polls are 51-49 because Shorten made a blunder. That shows one thing very clearly public has very short fuse for ALP.
What is the blunder Shorten made. He said he will repeal tax cut for companies earning more than $10 million. Is it worse than the carbon tax Abbott repealed, which was actually working as intended? Is Climate change a lesser issue than tax cuts to companies earning more than $10 million dollors. If so, then this country has priorities completely wrong.
Morning all.
We have the optimistic optimists and the pessimistic pessimists out in force …
Situation is almost identical as last week …. and paypackets are going to be smaller for many next time.
mundo:
Turnbull may well be doing Shorten slowly…has that thought occurred to anyone not looking through their special koolaid glasses?
Is, ‘doing Shorten slowly’, the new Liberal talking point? After they’ve had 5 years and failed! So, basically, what we have is Liberal HQ offering us up their latest arse-covering excuse and some numpties falling for it.
Well said, Ven. But you do know that you will never stop the bitter reflections of those such as ESJ? They live to twist the knife. Even if it is only a butter knife. 🙂
Mundo
If you reckon there is an obvious trend away from the ALP, based on current polling, you had better let Mr Bowe know that his bludgertrack chart is broken.
Remember that with McCain on sick leave the Senate is effectively 50-49. Senator Collins is in the Democrat camp if Sessions and Trump try to sneak through an anti-abortion justice.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2018/07/01/susan-collins-says-she-wont-support-supreme-court-nominees-who-demonstrates-hostility-to-roe-v-wade/?utm_term=.2aee0c9cae1b
Rupert Murdoch: The media mogul says goodbye to much of the company he built
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/rupert-murdoch-the-media-mogul-says-goodbye-to-much-of-the-company-he-built/2018/07/01/ab546216-7a23-11e8-aeee-4d04c8ac6158_story.html?utm_term=.039894f59a8d
jeffemu @ #50 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 8:39 am
SMH & AFR have Labor/ Shorten well down page, you have to go looking to find it, but even then they haven’t taken their feet off Shorten’s throat –
https://www.afr.com/news/bill-shorten-sharpens-class-warfare-attack-on-malcolm-turnbull-ahead-of-byelections-20180701-h123jr
They may change article order as the day goes on but don’t hold your breath.
Swannie takes a swing though –
https://www.afr.com/news/the-top-end-of-town-gorging-themselves-wayne-swan-20180701-h123hx
To paraphrase Ross Gittins, in the article listed by BK, it’s wages, stupid.
I have been out of the workforce for five years but in our last EBA it was 2pc or nothing.
My sons, who work in smallish companies beyond the reach of EBAs, tell the same story.
Tax cuts for business and high income earners won’t do anything for them. The only trickle down they feel is when the boss pisses them off at the annual performance review for the third or fourth year in a row.
On Fairfax and it’s front page treatment of the $350,000 pa battlers.
Given the collapse in the rivers of advertising gold that made the MSM great you’d think that Fairfax would be looking to establish itself as a different brand than the rest of the herd before they all trundle off the cliff into oblivion in just a few years.
Fairfax has given ‘Tory lite’ a go. This doesn’t seem to be a success. With the hiring of David Crowe they seem to be repositioning itself as Rupert 2.0. It doesn’t seem to occur to them that the RWNJ market in this country is already saturated and nobody can make any money out of it.
Perhaps Fairfax should consider an alternative brand. How about taping into that 35% of the population that always vote Labor no matter what? The demographic that might actually buy a dead tree newspaper or subscribe to the electronic editions? Folk that are by their very nature highly loyal? Maybe, just maybe a centre-left media outlet would actually fill a massive void – a space that even the ABC have been cowered into vacating?
If Ruprick can build himself an American media empire by filling the alt-right void created by a saturation of liberal media outlets, why can’t the opposite occur down under?
There is an article in AFR by Aaron Patrick that female Liberals are worse under MT than under Abbott (pardon my english but that is the title of the article).
Everything is worse under MT because when Abbott was PM he was atleast trying to please the so called moderates of the party but in case of MT he is trying to pander to the extreme right of the party. As Jericho once said when Abbott was PM there was some hope that things will be better under MT. Now that things are worse under MT there is no hope because there is nobody better than MT in LNP
There’s no way either side of politics is going to be maintaining a poll lead up around 55-57%. It doesn’t happen. There are too many rusted-ons supporters of both sides for it to happen. 53-54% is considered a wipe out.
If the best the government can do after the week Shorten had is gain one point which is well within the MOE of the poll, then the game is up. I was actually hoping for a 50-50 or even a 51% LNP lead, in the hope it might cause Turnbull to run off to a general election.
That Herald article is a disgrace. I’m sorry, but if you’re struggling to make ends meet on a family income of $350K plus, you’ve set your own ends too far apart.
Lastly, for the zillionth time, I’m still waiting for the ALP to simply say they won’t cop arguments on tax policy from a bloke who parks his own cash in the Cayman Islands.
poroti @ #38 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 8:10 am
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-coming-collapse/
Great article Poroti
On the $350k income households facing a cut to childcare:
If you’ve budgeted to be repaying a million dollar mortgage, your wife has gone back to work after only a few months maternity leave so that she can keep her position, and then $5-10k suddenly dissapears from your incomings, you might also be a bit pissed off.
Yes, your level of wealth is great, and yes, it’s only for a few years, but changes like this mess with people’s plans, and that pisses them off.
Burgey @ #65 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 9:17 am
To use a favourite expression of the MSM – that article is class warfare.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/02/shortens-original-decision-to-scrap-tax-cuts-supported-by-voters-poll-finds
Ven @ #65 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:15 am
Bullsh!t !!!
When did Abbott ever give consideration to the moderates on his side?
Some of the voters polled in the Newspoll would have been polled before Shorten reversed his decision.
Newspoll is in the field, Thursday to Sunday. Decision to reverse tax position announced on Friday morning by Bill Shorten. So the effect on the question would be marginal. At best.
Where do the journalists find those families at short notice for their stories anyway!?!
Oh, as you were. They are their friends and neighbours. 🙂
Turnbull hasn’t got the political smarts to do ANYONE slowly, let alone Bill Shorten who played him like a fiddle at the last election. As Paul Keating correctly said, Turnbull is a political dunce.
And those who keep saying the polls will move towards the Liberals as soon as the election is announced have very short memories. At the beginning of the election campaign in 2016 the polls were indicating a resounding win to the Liberals, suggesting they could win up to 85 seats or even more. In the end they just fell in with a one seat majority.
Urban Wronski gets it right today when he calls Craig Kelly, Matt Canavan, Tony Abbott et al, the ‘Coal Lobby’. That’s all they are.
There is a cure for masochism these days.
Of course AM managed to get in a mention of Newspoll.
Just because Sabra ask a Liberal Lane is on holidays, doesn’t mean her replacement Kim Landers can’t rise to the occasion.
At the end of super benign interview which even failed to mention the SMH’s $350k couple, she asked Simon Birmingham if the government now had a swing in its step as a result of the latest Newspoll.
Amazingly standard anti-Labor diatribe ensued. Who would have thought?
Malcolm has the millionaire looks but not the brains of doing anyone anything.
$350k couple should be ashamed of themselves.
Darn
Yes, the history is a bit inconvenient for the Tory cheer squad.
The so called slipery , slimy, unloved Shorten, inspired by desires for a class war and armed with a suite of policies that would end western civilisation as we know it, reduced Turnbull to a gibberish mess on election night.
Surely, all this screaming about “class warfare” in the right-wing press is manna from heaven for Labor. They’re holding up a big sign that says: Labor really does stand for something different.
Darn @ #73 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 9:35 am
The tories ‘do’ scare campaigns and propaganda pretty well though.
One of their strengths is to get people of modest means and income to vote against their economic interests, against good education, health and other vital policies. Over and over again.
The last election, Labor played them at their own game, because of the truth that the tories would love to cut or abolish Medicare.
So far the memes are tax cuts and killbill plus an opposition being held to a higher level of account then the government.
Maybe the by elections will give us a better idea of things.
So Shorten’s plan had majority support. No surprises there. Whenever you hear a lot of sound and fury from the CPG, you have to ask where it’s coming from. Mostly it’s generated within their own bubble.
Labor should be careful not to blindly accept the CPG’s narrative for reality – first ask what they built their narrative on.
Okay…you all win.
I’ve got my glasses back on and clearly Labor will romp in!!
Malky is a basket case Bill is like awesome and everyone needs to get with the program.
As long as all those ALP voters who can’t stand Bill follow through and vote Labor as they say they will we’re looking at maybe 105 seats…maybe more!!!
More koolaid Mrs Mundo, why thank you darling, may I pour you one….? 🙂
I read the excerpt from Katherine Murphy’s new book. I won’t spend my money I am afraid.
But … from what I read I got that media STILL sees themselves as by-standers in the process.
The argument seems to be ‘everyone is caught up by the changing dynamic’.
It’ll only be when they ADMIT their intent as actors in the process will we start to return to a basis of truth in journalism.
I told you all that our great LNP are coming back to win the seats of Longman Braddon mayo and also the next election by a landslide
Two points
What wages are those employed by Child Care facility operators on?
And remember ABC Learning with its political affiliations?
And, when a business is under revenue and margins pressure including overheads such as rental on leased premises (long term leases) and utility costs, what do they do to retain profit and survive?
They cut staff and they cut inventory
Normally, except for Telstra and NAB, we see the Share Price increase on the announcement of a reduction in operating overheads, which is code for retrenchments including at Murdoch
Mundo Hanrahan. … I still havent recovered from last week’s blunders. You might be right, but labor has bearly started to deploy its $400 billion warchest it has accumulated. $6.3 billiion of well targeted infratsructure promises for western Sydney over the weekend is just the start.
Upon reflection and sounding out my own ‘labor insiders’ who presently occupy senior front bench positions over the weekend I get the sense that rather than Bill being 100% rolled on Friday, he was looking for a way out because he already wanted to change tack: keep the focus on the tax cuts for the very top end in focus BUT start rolling out the warchest.
I still think the Friday backdown was a massive blunder, mainly because the CPG and MSM more generally are just going to report ‘leadershit’ to the max and gloss over (1) how much the tax cuts for large business and top income earners stinks, (2) how good labor’s postive programs really are. I also dont think in the present economic climate that so-called battler businesses with turn overs above $10 million (and defeinetly those abobve $25 million) deserve a tax cut. In fact I agree with Princess Peg – turn over is a pretty stupid way of determining who should get a tax cut on profits.
In the longer term I think the outcome of the byelections are going to be very important. A win for labor in Longman and Braddon, even if its below the usual anti-government swing, will be a real boost to Bill and Labor. Loses in either and anything could happen, but most of the senerios would appear pretty bleak.
Thank goodness for Mr Earlwood.
Sanity reigns.
Sky News is all Lib cheer squad, the 51-49 means with MoE they are equal (i kid you not). If Labor does not win the two by elections Bill is a goner. The leaders approval ratings mean Mal is magnificent and Bill is toast.
Leadershit, breathless anticipation of the Turnbull turnaround and dear hope that Bill fails.
It reminds me of the 4th Division local football team desparately trying to wrangle enough points out of the final rounds to avoid relegation to the Amatuer League.
mundo @ #82 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:53 am
Mundoom!
You go on about Shorten but last week highlights that Labor are more than just the leader.
The change was as a direct result of arguments within the Shadow Cabinet.
This has been a strength of Shorten’s leadership.
Last week he projected Labor’s message further than what had been stated before and in a way that did not account for changes coming into effect yesterday.
After Cabinet, Labor was able to present a much cleaner simpler policy position and Shorten, to his credit did not let his ego get in his way, accepted this and got on with the job.
Shorten’s strengths are as an organiser and facilitator, he uses the knowledge and ability of those around him and he’s not afraid to listen.
You seem to be looking for a President.
We don’t have those in Australia!!!! 🙂
Katharine Murphy nails it.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/02/clickbait-and-gotcha-moments-how-political-conflict-became-a-commodity
Maybe she should take up carpentry rather than journalism then.
Jim Acosta lashes out at Fox News for being Trump’s ‘MAGA-phone’: ‘We have a system of state supported media’
“There are folks on the conservative side, I refer to them as the ‘MAGA phone,’” he continued. “They by and large just echo what the president wants to hear and what he wants to say. We see that a lot happening over on Fox News.”
Acosta said that many of the Trump supporters who attack him at campaign rallies “are developing their impressions of us by watching [Fox News host Sean Hannity] and so on. Watch us and make up your own mind.”
“Listen, if they want to send me to hell, I’ll still be shouting at the devil,” the CNN reporter continued. “We have a job to do. I’ve said this times before and I’ll say it again. They can kick us out of the briefing room, out of the White House. We’re still going to do our jobs.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/jim-acosta-lashes-fox-news-trumps-maga-phone-system-state-supported-media/
The past week is an example of what KM writes about. Yet there she was along with the rest of the CPG with the same narrative about stumbles, captain’s calls and leadership rumbles. The CPG converge so quickly on the same narrative that you wonder if they’re not some kind of group mind.
KM:
It’s nice that KM is reflecting, but you have to do more than reflect, you have to actually learn from it and change your behaviour. No evidence of that, unfortunately.
“Katharine Murphy nails it.
You just jumped the shark.
Reading that Spud Murp piece I am reminded of Oscar Wilde: “all criticism is autobiographical …”
Capital Gazette Calls Out Trump’s Violent Rhetoric After Mass Shooting In Their Newsroom
In an open letter, the staff of the Capital Gazette said that their will never forget those who lost their lives in a mass shooting in their newsroom. They also said that they will never forget the death threats and those who call them the enemy of the people.
Via an open letter:
Here’s what else we won’t forget: Death threats and emails from people we don’t know celebrating our loss, or the people who called for one of our reporters to get fired because she got angry and cursed on national television after witnessing her friends getting shot.
We won’t forget being called an enemy of the people.
No, we won’t forget that. Because exposing evil, shining light on wrongs and fighting injustice is what we do.
Trump has fed his supporters nearly daily rhetoric that demonizes journalists and the free press, because he doesn’t want facts to be reported, and he doesn’t like negative coverage. Trump wants all of journalism to be like Fox News.
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/07/01/capital-gazette-calls-out-trumps-violent-rhetoric-after-mass-shooting.html
Wayne @ #84 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 10:04 am
“Daisy, Daisy….”.
AE,
Public trust in, and regard for, politicians, is at an all-time low.
Why is that so?
Adrian,
Murphy would make a lousy carpenter.
Her house would have a neglected left wing while the right would be lovingly decorated and polished.
Pegasus
It’s the vision thing. Totally missing.
Lizzie & Grumplestiltskins
KFC hasn’t paid Weekend Penalty Rates for almost a decade – their union, the SDA, gave them away. It’s the same for MacDonalds and other large fast-food chains. That’s why the majority of small businesses owners wanted at least a reduction on Sundays Award rates – so they are competitive.
Strange that the ALP isn’t going to also reinstate those Weekend Penalty Rates.