Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.
Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.
So Fairfax and the Guardian are “spewing lies”? But if people don’t read them fine, but don’t make a big show of saying that they don’t. And then STFU about them.
Victoria says: Monday, July 2, 2018 at 12:39 pm
Afternoon bludgers
Back from my trip and glad to be back. No place like home.
Although not too pleased with latest newspoll result.
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Welcome Back, Victoria – hope you had the trip of a lifetime.
The LNP, Turnbull and Trump – all need to feel the pain of your sting !!!!!
G’day Victoria. Best wishes.
Hi Victoria
Did you love the Cinque Terra as much as I did? I stayed for a week on the edge of Cornelia in a little hotel-pensione -the Resturant Albegori (spelling) with stunning views of the oil groves, village and sea in between back in 2002.
AE,
Your ‘editorialsing in favour of maintaining reasonable levels of tax and social services’ will still always come from within the world view of the rich. It will even with the best of intent only come from a view distorted by power and privilege. Maybe Bezos does have a completely hands off approach to editorial. But he still puts the people who set the editorial policies in place. These will always be from a privileged minority.
Murdoch doesn’t micro manage the editorials of his outlets. There’s no need, he just puts in place the people who know what’s required. Even if a Bezos came to it with good intent, they aren’t going to put in place the sort of people who are going to attack the very basis of his power and privilege. These people are going to be on his bus. So at best you get a milder less toxic form of the same problem. You just have to look at the trustees of the Guardian to see that the educated, privileged, mainly white perspective is all that can be on offer. Only the overt malignancy is a variable.
There is probably not a mass media solution to the problem.
Lizzie/Phoenix
The flight home was no fun!
Italy was great for its natural beauty and history.
They don’t come close to us Australians as far as friendly service and attention to detail We are definitely a huge cut above in this area!
Surely freedom of speech includes the freedom not to listen to it!
Welcome back Victoria.
Donald has been thriving in your absence.
Kay Jay
Cheers
Sexy Rex – So determined are you to bang on with Lib-Lab:same-same you ‘miss’ the reason why the tory economics editor of the West Australian has a parting shot at Labor, vis:
“And Labor is more focused on getting rid of costly tax handouts and then spending that largesse without any thought as to the broader economic ramifications of the individual policies or its total tax take.”
In other words, according to Wright, Labor is to be condemned for doing what you demand them to do. …
Lovey
‘ But if people don’t read them fine, but don’t make a big show of saying that they don’t. And then STFU about them.’
So now you’re denying people freedom of speech.
Andrew Earlwood
I stayed in La Spezia for a week.
Cinque Terra Port Venere and Santa Margherita were great. Best part of the trip for me!
Rex
Haha…how long will it be until these minor progressive parties are in a position to form government?
Face facts, there will be no progress on the issues that matter to progressives until the next ALP government.
Al Pal
I see Trump has succeeded in North Korea ramping up their nuclear arsenal.
I am waiting for FIFA World cup to conclude before any new serious developments in this Imbroglio.
Yep. The Truth Hurts.
My thoughts:
Labor’s change of position on company tax cuts will wash through very quickly; pretty much already has. Considering the media hysteria, the move in the polls was pretty much negligible. The task for Bill Shorton will be to gain back the initiative. His record suggests he will indeed be able to do this. Meanwhile, the energy wars in government ranks are coming and will once again expose their own disunity. They are somehow going to have to come up with a policy that will appease the rwnjs, but will also be acceptable to the states. Good luck with that!
As for Albo, I think he is finished as far as ever being Labor leader goes, and I say that as someone from the left. Those fantasising over a leadership change to Albo fail to explain how it will actually come about given the Labor leadership rules, and make the in my view completely incorrect assumption that because he won a membership ballot five years ago that he would win one now. He completely lost me way before his recent speech. His failure the day after the last election to rule out a challenge, before we even knew the results and when Labor had completely exceeded expectations told me he was not fit to lead the party.
North Korea Expands Key Missile-Manufacturing Plant
New satellite imagery indicates Pyongyang is pushing ahead with weapons programs even as it pursues dialogue with Washington
SEOUL—North Korea is completing a major expansion of a key missile-manufacturing plant, said researchers who have examined new satellite imagery of the site, the latest sign Pyongyang is pushing ahead with weapons programs even as the U.S. pressures it to abandon them.
The facility makes solid-fuel ballistic missiles—which would be able to strike U.S. military installations in Asia with a nuclear weapon with little warning—as well as re-entry vehicles for warheads that Pyongyang might use on longer-range missiles able to hit the continental U.S.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-expands-key-missile-manufacturing-plant-1530486907
I’m afraid that ‘Albo’ as leadership material has become a figment of some peoples’ fevered imaginings, in a similar way in which Trumble was once considered progressive, because he wore a leather jacket on Q&A or something.
I just read this morning’s column from David Crowe.
Apparently the answer to everything is tax, in particular the difference between 25% and 27.5% company tax on the profit high-turnover corporations. Nothing else is discussed as being a possible input to the campaign. Even up at our local pie shop this morning there was an animated discussion on the forthcoming corporate rates and their effect on the NAIRU, as well as GDP (just kidding).
Tax, according to Crowe, will define the election. And naturally, Bill Shorten and Labor are on the wrong side of the argument. Not only are Labor wrong on tax, but their policies will never be legislated anyway. So what’s the point?
One wonders why anyone bothers proposing anything. Better to just have an Albo-style “business friendly” policy, like Turnbull’s. In fact, forget Albo. If Turnbull’s the real deal, then why change?
I’ve seen so many policy areas that will “define the election”, making it a “referendum on {insert policy here}” that I wish I had a dollar for each of them.
@Matt31
I have had my doubts about Anthony Albanese, I don’t believe Labor would have done as well as it did in 2016 with him at the helm instead of Bill Shorten. It seems those doubts have been confirmed with these recent events
@adrian
Malcolm Turnbull I believe had to adopt a lot of what was the Abbott agenda in order to become Prime Minister. Because those Liberals who made him Prime Minister more opposed Abbott’s governing style, not the policies.
I can’t believe that someone earlier on said ‘Labor is not ready for office’….I seem to remember that many LNP apologists use this cop out when it looks they might lose. I remember some woman – smug sounding Liberal supporter I guessed – who thought when the 2007 election was being fought, that while ‘Mr Howard’ was probably passed his best, ‘that the Labor party needed some more time in opposition”. For what, I could never figure.
Shorten has now been Labor leader for 5 years is it? I am sure if and when he wins the coming election, and he gets sworn in by the GG………he will not only act as a very good PM, he will be it and look it.
One only has to look at puffed up Mr Abbott to see, that once out of office, he is proving to be just as poor leader as he was when PM. The same will apply to our current PM. Not that he will stay around, because, as soon as he loses, he will resign. After that, it will be a raffle/scramble among the right-wing of the Liberals to find some head-kicker to see them through for awhile. Take your pick – they have quite a few of this ilk to chose from.
Matt31 wrote:
It’s pretty clear now that Albo ran (or was a principal component of) a 5th Column operation for Rudd against Gillard, from 2010 to 2013, when he finally got to be Deputy PM and then LOTO-in-waiting. Except it didn’t pan out that way after the election. And as Matt31 notes, it didn’t pan out that way after the next election, either.
I am starting to suspect that Albo is a serial plotter and a sore loser and I am losing any respect I once had for him.
Victoria @ #197 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 12:39 pm
Vic, Good to see you back.
Hope the trip went well.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/02/revealed-39m-cost-of-defending-australias-tobacco-plain-packaging-laws
To my mind this money was worth every penny – it has shown many other nations around the world that you can beat Big Tobacco and use your sovereignty to look after the health of your citizens.
This attitude is why the Labor Party loses elections.
Weak as. Lift your game.
booleanbach
NZ was one such country. They were set to go but said they would wait to see how Australia got on. Plain packaging became law in March of this year.
Boomy….I’ve always fancied myself a numbers man : )
Dave
Cheers. All went well. Made me appreciate home even more
You are a troll mundo. You haven’t even got pride left.
As for Albo, I think he is finished as far as ever being Labor leader goes
I suspect that would be the great majority of the membership’s view.
None of us KNOW how much of the media nonsense is just hacks going on a frolic and how much is Albo or his peeps feeding it, but I doubt too many wouldn’t suspect there’s at least a bit of Albo being happy to let it run. And I don’t think the membership would be particularly pleased about it.
Albo was the senior member of caucus as the outgoing DPM in 2013, was well known and liked for his ‘fighting Tories’ persona within the party membership, and was about the only member of the party that had got good press for his role in the RGR wars. (we can debate if the good press was justified, but he certainly had it)
That he would get a majority of the membership vote back then was no great surprise. But really against a relative new comer like Shorten (who had gotten extremely bad press over RGR) Albo badly underperformed with the membership so much so that the caucus cost him the leadership.
I’d happily bet my own money that the one thing the membership won’t want a bar off is a return to the revolving door leadership. Even many of those who might feel Albanese would be more likely to win an election would be pissed off with Labor’s leadership becoming an issue when Labor is so well placed to win and win well. The membership simply wouldn’t reward destabilising a leader who has done the job of having Labor in the box seat as well as Shorten has. They’d expect a singular focus on making Shorten PM at the next election and anyone that outed themselves as not being 100% on board that train would get smashed if they were stupid enough to give the membership a chance to have their say on the matter.
The prankster who punk’d Trump into a phone call
John MelendezVerified account @stutteringjohnm
Breaking: Secret Service contacted me agent & wants me to meet with them tomorrow. Stay tuned, Avenatti, can you come with me?
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Rick WilsonVerified account @TheRickWilson
Rick Wilson Retweeted John Melendez
do not walk into that room without a lawyer. And I’m guessing most lawyers would advise you not to walk into that room even with the lawyer.
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I am meeting with the Secret Service tomorrow at 10am. @MichaelAvenatti I need your help.
Great news I have just spoken to my new attorney @MichaelAvenatti who has agreed to represent me on this. Stay tuned.
Because those Liberals who made him Prime Minister more opposed Abbott’s
governing stylepolling record, not the policies.fify
Tanya’s line about the PM having a gap year with the working class is a very good one. Want to see more like it.
Plus ca change…
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jul/02/the-brownout-strangler-how-a-smiling-psychopath-terrorised-wartime-melbourne?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
phoenixRED @ #233 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 1:30 pm
Interesting. So instead of encouraging the President to be less of a gullible moron and/or reprimanding the staffers who let through a prank call in the first place, the Secret Service is going to intimidate the prankster as an example of what happens to anyone who dares embarrass the ruling party.
That’s some straight-up Gestapo shit, right there.
Lovely, I just blocked you – sue me.
Libertarian Unionist @ #196 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 12:35 pm
I’m having trouble producing such a small fraction of a chip. I propose converting all wagers to cryptocurrency.
antonbruckner11
Damn, why didn’t I think of that! 😉
It was lovey mate. Only saying this coz how tragic would it be to block someone by accident
a r says: Monday, July 2, 2018 at 1:36 pm
phoenixRED @ #233 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 1:30 pm
Interesting. So instead of encouraging the President to be less of a gullible moron and/or reprimanding the staffers who let through a prank call in the first place, the Secret Service is going to intimidate the prankster as an example of what happens to anyone who dares embarrass the ruling party.
That’s some straight-up Gestapo shit, right there.
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WELL SAID a r …….. Impossible to predict – but Avenatti is turning up in all places, Daniels. Cohen ……and now to help, John Melendez …… Trump must be sick of him and his ability to self promote – but fingers crossed Avenatti is a good guy that contributes to the toppling of Drumpf
Gestapo you say – Ripping desperate children from their mothers’ arms; using the “big lie” & state media to brainwash citizens; scapegoating, race baiting, & dehumanizing; calling the press “enemy of the people.” I wonder where Trump got these ideas?
if Albo never said a word in public the Tory press would have him silently plotting.
The fact that he is preferred labor leader of so many in the Tory cheer squad should be enough to sound alarms. They see shorten as the real threat he is and will do anything to see him gone.
What have we learnt on PB this morning?
Many here do not read the newspapers because they don’t conform to their specific world view or if they do read one it is wrong if it’s conclusion is different to theirs. 🙂
What’s a newspaper?
Burgey — you should watch Plibersek’s entire speech from yesterday — she did what Bishop tries to do (and fails miserably at) — make the opposing look like a fool.
How much use is Frydenberg’s Department of Environment and Energy ?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/probe-reveals-organised-crime-forgery-driving-australia-s-illegal-wildlife-trade-20180629-p4zok2.html
I voted for Albo – would not now. Not because he was agitating — that is something still unproven.
It is just that Shorten has shown he can be a good leader. Albo is a fantastic warrior, but warriors rarely make great leaders … anybody who has studied ancient Roman history would understand why … i.e. they focus on the immediate battle and rarely see the big picture.
Shorten said it today, he doesn’t pay attention to the daily personality politics — he is focussed on the end-game in ALL our interest (not just his own). Of course some might say it ambition speaking — but personal and national ambition need to align and he is showing that he can do that.
“In a letter to the prime minister, John Curtin, prominent anthropologist Prof AP Elkin explained that “people … in touch with the business world” were telling him that “our leading business and financial folk” would capitulate because they preferred a Japanese victory to a Labor government. ”
That Elkin story was interesting.
Labor bashers bring up claims about the wharvies sabotaging the war effort but appeared to have overlooked liberal backers barracking for Japan.
Elkin also was very influential in aboriginal policies, promoting assimilation as the way to go.
Assimilation is what I was taught at school was best for the aborigines, best thing was to assimilate them and let the race(s) die out.
Boomy1
“The Truth Hurts.”
I THOUGHT that we’d met before!