Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A slight gain for the Coalition from the latest Newspoll, as Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings maintain their improving trend.

Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.

Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. BiGD

    Many here do not read the newspapers because they don’t conform to their specific world view

    We have to read them to know they don’t conform to our specific world view so that we can then not read them.

    I only don’t read things in principle, not in practice.

  5. Attacking Albo (or any other potential leader) doesn’t necessarily make Bill Shorten look any better.

  7. I’m asking only because all I’ve caught up with is the snide comment made by Leyenhelm (sp) in parliament last week.

  8. Fulvio
    What, in Law, are the alleged words said to constitute the actionable defamation?

    IMO, they are not fit to print here, but suffice it to say, they were specific enough to Senator Hanson-Young to be considered defamatory.

    Edit: Fulvio, Leyonhjelm then repeated his comment, and made an additional, much more defamatory comment, on Sky News.

  9. There won’t be a public interest defence and if SHY has a partner the damages will be pretty steep!

  10. Abuse per say, even vile and disgusting abuse, doesn’t necessarily constitute defamation.

    I hope she’s had some preliminary advice.

  11. Fulvio: the
    Oh, and if Leyonjhelm gets sued, it’s hard to see how Fox could pick up the tab (that would make it a political donation!)

  15. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sarah-hanson-young-threatens-legal-action-over-david-leyonhjelm-s-sexual-comments-20180702-p4zozm.html

    Former prime minister Tony Abbott – who was also minister for women while PM – described Senator Leyonhjelm’s initial slur in the Senate as “just tacky” and called on him to apologise.

    “All of us I suppose get carried away but when you make a mistake, fix it,” Mr Abbott told 2GB on Monday. “People should be better than that.”

    The offending comments were broadcast on Sky’s Outsiders program on Sunday, hosted by Rowan Dean and Ross Cameron. Sky News political editor David Speers reprimanded the pair for failing to call out Senator Leyonhjelm’s remarks during the broadcast.

    “The comments were completely unacceptable and should have been called out by Rowan and Ross at the time,” Speers tweeted. “There’s room for plenty of opinions, but basic human decency should come first. Sexism is never ok.”

    Greens leader Richard Di Natale said the apologies from Sky were “hollow” given the only person punished so far had been a junior, female producer. He also called on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten to publicly condemn Senator Leyonhjelm.

  17. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jul/02/sarah-hanson-young-legal-advice-sky-news-sexist-progamme

    In a statement on Monday morning, Hanson-Young said she was seeking legal advice in relation to the commentary between Leyonhjelm and the hosts, as well as on 3AW Weekend Breakfast on Sunday. She also called on Leyonhjelm to resign.

    :::
    But Leyonhjelm, who recently called Channel Ten’s entertainment reporter Angela Bishop “a bigoted bitch” for saying his slur was pathetic, is unrepentant.

  18. Leyonhjelm actions are just political maneuvering.

    The motion to relax the ban on tasers and such for women as protection was to test and show support for his backers and probably a pitch for the shooters and fishers vote to say we are there for you on gun control.

    He would get support for his reactions to SHY, reports putting his side say he was reacting to insinuations that all men are rapists when all that was said was that women didn’t need weapons to protect themselves when the problem was of men attacking women that needed to be addressed.

    His stance on Sky news just carried along on a similar theme. The five who backed the motion are all competing for a similar base of voters, white males ignored by society.

  20. Could all you devoted members of the NSW and Victorian right wing put a spoke in it and STOP doing the work of Turnbull and Rupert.

    So Albo is positioning himself for a leadership bid in the event that Shorten does not get over the line.This is possible and it makes obvious sense for people to position themseves. That does not make himdislyal or a Labor rat or amny of the other vile accusations thatare thrown at him

    Would he be the better leader – jury is out but I lean towards NO BUT only a bleeding fool would not be a little concerned at the direction of the polls.

    Shorten has copped two stuff ups this year and the strain is telling. First the citizenship fiasco where he is blamed for his statement that everything in the ALP house was rosy. Of course it was not his fault but he did mishandle it. Far more serious from Shorten’s position is that it has catapulted his real danger into the parliament a few years too soon and on a wave of glory. I am speaking of Ged. I assume Albo is also worried hence his positioning.

    Now recently he stuffed up on the tax. His problem was NOT what he said but his failure to consult. Moreover I am reluctantly leaning towards Andrew’s pessimistic view that the backflip did damage.

    However my real concern is that Turnbull and co seem to have their act together. I am not sure Shorten can win against Turnbull without the endless stuff ups. I am wondering if some sort of a deal has been brokered within the LNP, such that the Monkey pod pull back. Maybe Dutton is to become deputy. Bishop may be set to resign. She seems to have lost interest.

    I am just guessing but lately there has GASP seemed to be some unity in the Libs.

    This is my concern. I do not think Bill Shorten is the man to take on a united Liberal mob. For that you need colour and passion. Which I might add leaves out most of the leadership. They are all competent but few are colourful

  21. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/02/newstarts-hand-to-mouth-existence-cant-go-on-for-another-25-years

    With our federal politicians receiving pay increases from 1 July, and their strong advocacy for tax relief for the top end of town, it seems timely to remind ourselves that the unemployment benefit hasn’t budged in a quarter of a century. The situation is now so dire that even business groups and conservative economists believe something needs to be done about it.

    :::
    Any increase to the payment was noticeably absent from the federal government’s latest budget. The Labor party has promised to look into it if it wins the next election, with opposition leader Bill Shorten saying his party will give welfare payments a “root and branch” review. Both the Coalition and Labor have been aware of the dire situation since the 2009 Henry Review, which recommended that the Newstart allowance be raised.

    They were reminded of it again in 2012 in a National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling report which said indexing Newstart to the consumer price index rather than income growth was ensuring “that these households continue to slide further behind the rest of the community in terms of economic resources and opportunities”.

    Bill Shorten was workplace minister then and said the Gillard government would consider raising the payment. They never got around to it. Maybe they’ll be moved by the Newstart choir, which has rewritten the words to Gough Whitlam’s 1972 election campaign song, It’s Time, to call on Labor to lift the payment in order to provide the unemployed and underemployed with “a real start”.

  22. Reporting back from Centrelink with updates:.

    Centrelink has now approved the section 24 application and now owe us 3 months payments, on top of what they owe us from the AAT Tribunal.

  23. Shorten has passion — just need to watch yesterday’s speech to know that.

    BUT

    He is taking the ‘energy’ out of the hysteria that began with Abbott … I suspect trying to return some integrity to the discourse

  24. @Peg

    It’s LNP fault for not raising the new start stop blaming Labor for something they haven’t done yet.

  26. Zoidlord says: Monday, July 2, 2018 at 2:34 pm

    Reporting back from Centrelink with updates:.

    Centrelink has now approved the section 24 application and now owe us 3 months payments, on top of what they owe us from the AAT Tribunal.

    *********************************************

    Good News Zoidlord – maybe you and your wife now have a few $ to celebrate with …..

  28. @Peg

    Greens are equally to blame.

    @phoenixRED

    Cheers ph!

    Long time coming, almost a year in our book, next step is compensation, with Act of Grace.

  29. Rex Douglas @ #167 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:55 am

    C@tmomma @ #157 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:43 am

    Rex Douglas @ #152 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:34 am

    C@tmomma @ #146 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:24 am

    I also note that on the weekend ‘Albo’ was a much-diminished presence. No one likes a Labor Rat.

    So Labor continues to be consumed with division and factionalism. Hopeless.

    No, that’s Albo’s schtick. Everyone else is on a unity ticket. 🙂

    So there’s a rat in the ranks but we’re all on a unity ticket.

    Labor logic.

    No. You can’t understand logic. One swallow does not a summer make. So one rat in the ranks does not a disunited party make.

    I can only classify what you have stated above as clutching at straws. You use them to make your straw men..

  30. jenauthor @ #269 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 2:39 pm

    Shorten has passion — just need to watch yesterday’s speech to know that.

    BUT

    He is taking the ‘energy’ out of the hysteria that began with Abbott … I suspect trying to return some integrity to the discourse

    Jen

    Up until about 6 weeks ago I would have agreed but now I am not so sure. However it is way, way too lae to even consider a change so all genuine ALP types should shut up and not pour fuel on the fire.

    Bill Shorten is the leader. Perhaps on July 29 we can revisit it but until then we should all put a spoke on it and NOT buy into the meme which is deliberately started by the real enemy to sow discord.

  34. Rex and co are a study in operant conditioning experimentation

    Say the same thing over and over until it is real (in your own mind).

    It was the primary method of mass indoctrination of the Nazi Party … ‘nuff said

  35. “I do not think Shorten is the man to take on a united Liberal mob”

    ??????

    From someone who otherwise tries to convince that they are anti the “Liberal mob”.

    Bastiaan/Sukkar/Cormack/Kennett/Costello/the Establishment

    And that is just in Victoria!!!!

    As Malcolm Fraser once said, the Liberal Party is no longer a Liberal Party – and that is why those sitting under its banner are a “Liberal mob” of misfits each with ego and a self serving agenda

  38. Rex Douglas @ #254 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 2:15 pm

    Attacking an existing Leader is a sure way to drive your party to the fucking ground ya green twats.

  40. I keep on wondering why Rex, whose perception about leadership he believes to be second to none, never attacks an obviously incompetent leader, Richard Di Natale?

  41. C@tmomma @ #277 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #167 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:55 am

    C@tmomma @ #157 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:43 am

    Rex Douglas @ #152 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:34 am

    C@tmomma @ #146 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:24 am

    I also note that on the weekend ‘Albo’ was a much-diminished presence. No one likes a Labor Rat.

    So Labor continues to be consumed with division and factionalism. Hopeless.

    No, that’s Albo’s schtick. Everyone else is on a unity ticket. 🙂

    So there’s a rat in the ranks but we’re all on a unity ticket.

    Labor logic.

    No. You can’t understand logic. One swallow does not a summer make. So one rat in the ranks does not a disunited party make.

    I can only classify what you have stated above as clutching at straws. You use them to make your straw men..

    I wonder if any other Labor supporters here agree with you that Albo is a rat ?

  42. jenauthor @ #283 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 2:56 pm

    Rex and co are a study in operant conditioning experimentation

    Say the same thing over and over until it is real (in your own mind).

    It was the primary method of mass indoctrination of the Nazi Party … ‘nuff said

    The Liberal Party use it all the time.

    ‘Nuff said.

  43. jenauthor @ #283 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 2:58 pm

    DTT

    explain what you mean by ‘genuine ALP types’

    Are you talking the ALP of 100 years ago? 50? 20?

    No I am talking about us – most of us who are members of the ALP or strong sympathisers. We should not be engaging in the leadership stuff, and especially not denigrating ANY leadership contender.

    I was particularly shocked by Cat’s labor rat stuff which was straight out of Young Labor circa 1972.

    As I say if the by-elections go badly then perhaps we should discuss it but even then we should keep it civil

    Lave the nastiness to the obvious LNP trolls.

  44. jenauthor @ #282 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 2:56 pm

    Rex and co are a study in operant conditioning experimentation

    Say the same thing over and over until it is real (in your own mind).

    It was the primary method of mass indoctrination of the Nazi Party … ‘nuff said

    Comparing me to a nazi ?

    That’s a new one 😆

  45. paywalled at the Oz “Abbott says he is willing to lead again if party wants him”.

    apparently they’ve told him they’ll give him a call if herpes, HIV, polio, bubonic plague and Michaelia Cash all turn it down.

    he remains hopeful and waiting by the phone

  47. AE: “…the tory economics editor of the West Australian ”

    I don’t read the West Australian, but if you are talking about Shane Wright, I’ve seen him quite a few times on Insiders and I can’t remember him ever demonstrating any Tory tendencies. And, as far as I am aware, he has never worked for any Lib or Nat politicians. He seems to me to be a little bit to the left of centre.

  49. According to Twitter, Mal is announcing lots of lovely gifts for people, including whooping cough vaccine which was already available free of cost for pregnant women.

    One of Mal’s habits is to re-announce announcements.

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