BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The BludgerTrack pendulum swings back to Labor after a good result for them in this week’s Ipsos poll, both on primary votes and respondent-allocated preferences.

The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.

As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!

Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,512 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 26 of 31
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  1. poroti,

    Sounds familiar.

    Sshhhhh, Don’t provoke Labor Right members and supporters.

    Pointing out Shorten is appropriating a Corbyn slogan would be a tad provocative for some.

  2. ESJ: “we are marginally less bad so vote for us. Just doesn’t cut it for 35% of the population it seems.”

    If that was all I could say about Labor the difference would be vastly more than marginal. You are right (sort of) in that a large portion of the population is unimpressed with either main group – more like 26% than 35% based on the numbers above. Funnily, it’s the Coalition who keep most of their true agenda hidden and talk about the other side.

  3. I reckon you are all being cruel to Georgina Downer.
    Heartless and cruel.
    She has done nothing!!
    She has done absolutely nothing.!

  4. ”
    Rossmcg says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 6:02 pm
    So alleged greens attack shorten over adani.

    If adani gets its act together ( unlikely but possible) and Turnbull holds off on the election for another year and the Nats organise some slush funds the project could start.

    Rex will blame Shorten.
    ”
    Ross
    There are lot of ifs in your statement, which makes it a bit iffy. Rex will blame Shorten anyway even if your ifs does not come true

  6. ”
    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 5:54 pm
    DG, p et al
    Youse guys are in form this evening!
    boomy1 says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 6:42 pm
    I reckon you are all being cruel to Georgina Downer.
    Heartless and cruel.
    She has done nothing!!
    She has done absolutely nothing.!
    ”
    BM and boomy1
    Indeed!

  10. Zooms right about children’s literature.

    From 3 little pigs to Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (7 the rest of that series) … propaganda galore.

    Religious, political you name it

  11. Irish election slogans.
    In the 60s Labour had “From cradle to grave”
    Fine Gael went one better with “From Sperm to Worm”
    But as usual Fianna Fail won with “From erection to resurrection”

  13. Hey Rex, Pegasus and ESJ,
    Have you done anything to try and solve the Housing and Homelessness crisis this weekend?

    I have.

    Have you done anything to try and develop modalities for improving the job prospects of Indigenous Australians this weekend?

    I have.

    So, seeing as you have been as useless as you ever were, can you take your snark about the Right of Labor, and whatever other pathetic anti Labor points you are pathetically attempting to make, and shove them into your bourgeois quinoa tabbouleh!?!

    ESJ, you are just irrelevant.

  16. C@t:

    I’m glad you’ve had a productive weekend. D&M was looking for you at one point, did you end up meeting her?

  17. PvO picks up my point about that silly Sky program with the old, white males. It’s the culture the program enables. Sky should take it off, it certainly doesn’t inform anyone of anything meaningful.

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    16m16 minutes ago
    Don’t blame the producer, it’s the culture of a show like that being allowed on air in the first place. This is far from the first incident of slander and offence. Allowing it on air unfettered erodes the morale of hard working decent people who cringe at being associated with it

  19. Oakeshott country @ #1248 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 6:27 pm

    Last time I went to the NSWALP conference there was a guy sitting on the right of the rostrum who kept repeating “you’re a c@nt, you’re a dead c@nt” whenever someone from the left was speaking. Very off putting

    Shows how long it’s been since you went to a conference then. Nothing remotely like that happened this weekend.

    Oh, except for once when some tosser from the bourgeois Balmain ‘Left’ tried to count down a speaker they didn’t agree with. They didn’t try it again. 🙂

  21. Mumbai showing the way!

    So-nasty-Li Dev
    ‏

    @Sonali_Dev
    Follow Follow @Sonali_Dev
    More
    All (disposable?) plastic has been banned in Mumbai. As in: no plastic shopping bags, no plastic takeaway boxes, no plastic straws (hello paper straws!). If you’re found in possession, you’re fined something fierce. This is the cleanest I’ve ever seen the city I grew up in.

  22. ”
    sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 6:55 pm
    One of the biggest cheers at NSW conference was for these delegates from the ABC
    ”
    How Bizarre Sprocket. The more ABC steps up its criticism of ALP in general and Federal ALP in particular (even for small things like Ads of ALP) on the complaints of LNP, the more ALP supports it.

  23. Confessions @ #1266 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 7:02 pm

    C@t:

    I’m glad you’ve had a productive weekend. D&M was looking for you at one point, did you end up meeting her?

    No! I didn’t have a chance to look at the blog. I’ve been flat out like a lizard drinking!

    I would have gone to some of the Fringe events with her!

  28. Oh dear @ person is back from the party.

    Only 2 people voted not to send the @ person down the poop chute in the plebiscite btw.

  30. When this or a future Coalition breaks up and sells the ABC, the Banana suits will be the first thing to go.

  34. Under-representation of women there.

    You do realise the mining sector is a heavily male-dominated industry?

  36. Fess

    PVO is right. SkyNews puts on this “shock jock” show to titillate its Murdoch toady executives, and to fill up SkyNews social media feeds as “shock jock” click bait – they have no viewers, less than 20,000 in recent reports.

    the ‘guests’ they have on include such luminaries as Mark Latham, Craig Kelly, Daisy Cousins and Rita Panahi.

  38. Ven,

    That could be put another way — the more ALP says it will save the ABC, the more the ABC cosies up to their captors … I call it Stockholm Syndrome

  41. sprocket_ @ #1285 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 7:17 pm

    Fess

    PVO is right. SkyNews puts on this “shock jock” show to titillate its Murdoch toady executives, and to fill up SkyNews social media feeds as “shock jock” click bait – they have no viewers, less than 20,000 in recent reports.

    the ‘guests’ they have on include such luminaries as Mark Latham, Craig Kelly, Daisy Cousins and Rita Panahi.

    They’re strapping themselves to the Trump style phenomenon. There’s a small market for it here in Australia that must be worth pursuing I presume.

  42. Sprocket:

    It’s completely unfair they suspended the producer when it was the Senator who made the comments, and I’d bet London to a brick none of the show’s hosts chipped him for it. They probably laughed and slapped him on the back instead.

  43. “Disrespecting women doesn’t always result in violence against women but all violence against women begins with disrespecting women.”

  45. Of course u would say that Steve 77 you were one of the two no votes recorded in the plebiscite.

    Hi GG hope your doing ok and being ethical in the loan broking whilst ur at it.

  47. Remember that Howard as treasurer froze salary and wages increases

    So put the fault for double digit inflation, unemployment and interest rates with Commercial Bills discounting at 25% with workers

    Then there was the blind eye turned toward the “Bottom of the Harbor” tax evasion scheme until the Costigan RC into the Maritime Union shone the torch on it

    The Tory DNA

  48. “PvO picks up my point about that silly Sky program with the old, white males. It’s the culture the program enables. Sky should take it off, it certainly doesn’t inform anyone of anything meaningful.”

    Why would Sky take it off, that is key Sky programming, this is a fox / Murdoch hate propaganda channel, it is any legitimate journos who are the ‘odd programming out’ now I’m not huge fans but PvO and Maiden left this place, they were giving it a fake appearance of credibility at the same time as theirs leaked out.

    This is the home of Sean Hannity and Trump’s for choice for all the sexist, racist hate you can get leading into your day … that is what sky is, that is its purpose and function.

  49. Willian

    Re the ‘Donation Drive” a suggested alternative to the song you featured. The Flying Lizard’s “Money (That’s What I Want)”.

    I want money
    That’s what I want
    That’s what I want
    That’s what I want

    Your love gives me such a thrill
    But your love don’t pay my bills

    I want money

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W25_jgiY51I

  50. Curiously PHON has a half page advert in our local paper. An advert for a Senate candidate, not a HoR by-election candidate.

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