The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.
As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!
Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.
Meanwhile over at the Liberal party conference
And of course the Young Liberals are also in attendance.
Pegasus
Publishers are so scared of losing money. Reminds me of the ABC…
I could write an essay on the rule of ideology, but who would care.
poroti:
That cannot be the Liberal party conference. For a start they aren’t fighting each other!
Simon, distance is irrelevant. Time is the quantity that matters. Its a long way at 70Km/hr. Its not so far at 140Km/hr. Its all a matter of perspective.
You won’t find a bigger advocate of a future proof fibre network than me. I can’t drive (hereditary eyesight) so I’ve been waiting for a time when telepresence is so good that it really is like being in the movies. You’re in a (virtual) room with your colleagues.
However…
Not all jobs are knowledge jobs and lots of highly skilled jobs actually require you to get your hands on the stuff your’re working on. And its still true that in the real world, actually meeting people face to face is the core of that network of trust that makes things happen.
Yes, you can reduce the amount of commuting needed. Considerably so for some jobs. And that’s a good thing. But you will not eliminate the need for nor the benefit of personal transport over tens of Kms. And if you don’t have a fast transport network, you don’t have a city. You have a loosely associated set of sub cities, and that old adage that its not your brains, its where you were born, will still apply. Life sucks. Physical isolation sucks. Disadvantage is real. We don’t need to make it worse by clinging to 19th century technology.
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/penalty-rates-cuts-shows-we-need-rewrite-rules
Here is something to lift Peg’s spirits:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8EMx7Y16Vo
As ACTU secretary Sally McManus told the NexGen 2017 conference “wage theft is a business model” for the bosses.
“The rules that were meant to protect our rights are now not strong enough. They need to be rewritten”, she said on June 25.
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/penalty-rates-cuts-shows-we-need-rewrite-rules
Simon, the reason why we are in the state we are in is because Sydney is physically too large for the technology (transport) in use. The only way out of this is speed. With speed the “long way” isn’t.
errr.. you can guess which bit shouldnt be double quoted.
Btw it lets me edit on the mobile, but not on the pc.
B
All that red at the NSW ALP conference, it must be seething with socialists and communists lol
No worries, when you say something constructive I’m all ears.
But you are a Green, never done anything for anyone . People who can afford the principles they think everyone else should live by.
peg
‘If I had a dollar for every time someone didn’t address the points in my posts ‘
How dishonest of you.
Every time someone tries to engage with your posts, you say wtte of “This isn’t my opinion, I’m just posting it’.
In which case, there’s no point doing anything other than note what you’ve posted.
Here’s another simple observation.
Every where you see a crowded motorway and the transport planners have plans to widen it or reserve a new corridor and duplicate it – there is an open and shut case for high speed rail.
For instance, Brisbane to Gold Coast. The 2013 Phase 2 HSR Study projected the “travel market” in that corridor to 2065. The figures they came up with (tens of millions of additional yearly journeys) looked good in a table. There was only one problem. They gave HSR an 11% mode share. Meaning cars got nearly 90 percent mode share? So, what’s wrong with this?
Go on.. guess..
If there were that many extra car journeys from Brisbane to the Gold coast then we would need an additional 12 lanes on the M1 motorway. Physically impossible. Worse, the calls for a new corridor are getting louder. Madness. Fucking madness.
It gets worse. The same bit of nonsense was applied to Newcastle to Sydney. Cars got the 90 percent share of the projection. In other words the report said we’d need another 8-10 lanes of motorway.
And guess fucking what? The RMS is now planning the M9 motorway? Why? Because its a Trojan horse. Its the first sector of a planned Newcastle to Wollongong motorway. How much is that going to cost? About the same (or a bit more) than a HSR line between those cities, which also happens to provide high speed connectivity within Sydney itself.
We have traffic jams on the M7. Why? Because the train network is painfully slow. How about the M5? Supposedly an artery of commerce but in reality congested by private vehicles. Why? Because the train network sucks.
These are the corridors that need much faster train lines. Not just full high speed rail either. In some cases 130-160Km/hr will do fine. But we need to build them and pay for them knowing that if we don’t we will spend up more on roads, and get less for it.
OK. Prediction time for Newspoll.
Here are mine:
1. 52/48 for Labor
2. Greens 9%
3. PHON 7%
4. ALP 36%.
5. Coalition 36%.
6. Shorten’s netsat down by 6%.
7. Turnbull’s netsat static.
8. PPM same.
Shorten’s excuse to use Sorverign Risk is the same lame excuse used by smoking companies.
And ISDS.
THEY CAN ALL DIE.
Bottoming out: the truth about how to botch Light Rail.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/act/light-rail-intersections-aren-t-being-re-done-due-to-complaints-20180426-p4zbuq.html
Looks reasonable Boerwar
‘And I wouldn’t put money on The Arabian Nights getting published now either – that’s full of djinns.’
Um, this women has obviously not read the original ‘Arabian Nights’. If she had, the djinns would be the least of her worries. It is regarded as a forerunner of modern porn.
‘As Bettelheim said, children’s books answer our most profound needs without our even realising. When we subvert them, we’re depriving children of a refuge, a delight and a way of understanding the world.’
Except, of course, that children’s literature has always been ‘subverted’, if not actually subversive. Nursery rhymes include pieces of propaganda, for example.
I would say the writer’s concerns are misplaced. Just because inane books are published for children doesn’t mean that children read them. And adults are notoriously bad at picking books which appeal to children, anyway.
Zoidlord @ #1215 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 5:19 pm
We all know it has nothing to do with sovereign risk and everything to do with votes in Queensland. Shifty Bill’s not fooling anyone with that line.
“52/48 for Labor”
53/47 for me. Newspoll has a habit of defying perceived recent events.
You sick puppy silver bodgie.
Rex, ‘We all know it has nothing to do with sovereign risk and everything to do with votes in Queensland. Shifty Bill’s not fooling anyone with that line’.
Bashing Labor again.
Do you ever bash the LNP?
PeeBee
Whenever Rex liblabs, he thinks he’s bashing the LNP by comparing them to Labor :P.
as Gillard said peebee “only labor…”
Has Georgina been canonised?
Mother Downer?
Bummer.
The term “Sovereign Risk” is meaningless. It’s trotted out by corporate vested interests and their political allies when they think there’s the slightest chance they might be adversely impacted by Government decisions.
Steve777 says:
Almost ,she is to be ‘canonised’ to Victoria in the byelection.
DG, p et al
Youse guys are in form this evening!
Re Poroti @ 5:53 – that sort of canonnisation has two n’s 🙂
Steve777
Spelling ? Near enough 🙂
Nnear ennuff is good ennuff?
So alleged greens attack shorten over adani.
If adani gets its act together ( unlikely but possible) and Turnbull holds off on the election for another year and the Nats organise some slush funds the project could start.
Rex will blame Shorten.
Sounds familiar.
Let’s put it negatively.
Come election time, via our preferential voting system, Rex and like-minded people will have to choose between the two groups with any chance of forming government:
On the one hand, those who want to cut health and education spending, sell the ABC, wind back pensions and other social security, demonise the victims of the failure of economic policy (a.k.a the unemployed), exploit asylum seekers for political gain, exploit fears of terrorism for political gain, sell off publicly owned assets, subject the public service to deskilling, privatisation, politicisation and dismantlement; and on the other hand, those who don’t.
Lol yes steve77 – labor’s only argument, we are marginally less bad so vote for us. Just doesn’t cut it for 35% of the population it seems.
The Liberals talk down (and enact policies to drive down) Australian wages all the time. It’s never labelled class warfare.
Like what dn , driving down wages like enacting the Fair Work act ?
@EDJ
You do realise that is LNP fault right?
Like getting out on radio and saying that labour costs are too high.
Here’s the thing, you don’t even hear it as class warfare, ESJ, because you think poor people are paid too much. So you just hear it and nod your head. On the other hand, talking down the wages of rich people is class warfare to you, because you think they’re not paid enough.
The use of the label class warfare tells us something about the biases of the person doing the labelling.
When did I say poor people are paid too much dn?
If Georgina Downer does go down in a heap in Mayo will the Libs ever nominate her for ANY seat in the future?
Have we been wowed by PVO yet?
When was the last time you used either of the phrases “class warfare” or “the politics of envy”?
You may not have, if so then I apologise.
Last time I went to the NSWALP conference there was a guy sitting on the right of the rostrum who kept repeating “you’re a c@nt, you’re a dead c@nt” whenever someone from the left was speaking. Very off putting
Pegasus
Where is the outrage from the progressive left over the sexism and bullying in the Fire Services in Victoria. It wouldn’t be the control the UFU has over its former lawyer in Adam Bandt or the hold they have over Daniel Andrews and James Merlino would it ?
Jane Garret tried to stick up for the female fireys and look where she ended up.
Perhaps they will nominate her to ascend to the throne: