Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

After a spike to Labor a fortnight ago, it’s back to business as usual in the latest Essential Research poll, which also finds Donald Trump slightly less unpopular with Australians than he was a year ago.

Labor’s two-point gain in last fortnight’s Essential Research poll has proved to be an aberration, with the latest result snapping back to 52-48. This is matched by the primary votes, on which the Coalition is up two to 38% and Labor down two to 35% (we will have to wait for the full report later today to see how the minor parties have gone). According to The Guardian’s report, the poll also finds 50% favouring Labor’s tax policy over the Coalition, with the result for the latter not stated, except of course that it’s lower; 79% supporting the first stage of the government’s tax cuts, targeting lower and middle income earners, but only 37% for stage three, whereby the tax scales will be flattened to the advantage of higher income earners; support and opposition for company tax cuts tied at 39% apiece; support for higher finding for the ABC, though we will have to wait for hard data on which areas of the broadcaster’s activities were most favoured.

Other questions relate to international matters, with 35% responding that the North Korea summit would make the world safer, 8% less safe, and 41% no difference. On foreign leaders, Justin Trudeau (up nine on last year) and Jacinda Ardern (on debut) both scored 54% approval, and if I’m reading this correctly, Theresa May scored 42% (up nine) and Donald Trump 22% (up six) – I believe other leaders will have been canvassed as well, but further results will have to wait.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential here – the Greens are up one to 11%, and One Nation down one to 7%. Further international leadership approval ratings include a 43% for Angela Merkel, unchanged on last year, 42% for Emmanuel Macron, up one, 19% for Vladimir Putin, up three, and, if you could credit it, 9% for Kim Jong-Un. Fortuitously, this comes as the Lowy Institute publishes results of a survey of 1200 respondents on Australian attitudes to the world, which similarly finds high levels of confidence for Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron, and low ones for Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un.

Also out today is further results from the Newspoll in The Australian, finding Malcolm Turnbull favoured by 47% as best leader to handle the asylum seeker issue (down five from December) and Bill Shorten on 30% (up two). It also finds 26% expecting Labor will “improve the policy”, 37% that it will “open the floodgates”, and 24% that it will make no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,271 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Just listening to Life Matters on ABC RN ….. discussion of the same topic that prevailed here last night.

    One reflection I liked from some “expert” was this:

    If it is the case that “men” are responsible for the rapes, murder, violence towards women, we need to change “men’s” values and attitudes. To do this we must be nuanced and sophisticated in the discussions because anything else will harden “men’s” attitudes and be counter productive.

  2. ABC report on last night’s Liberal love in!

    The man said an elderly lady inside the cafe was “trampled on”, and a man who tried to intervene was “ganged up on”.

    “They started bashing him … they took him outside and started kicking him.

    “To be honest I thought he was going to die.”

    The man also said some people tried to film the incident, but their phones were taken and smashed.

    There’s obviously potential for some of these with the Potato and his Department.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-18/liberal-party-brawl-at-arncliffe-cafe/9883926

  5. “Andrew Wilkie outlines an alternative to Mandatory Detention. Given his security experience this should be seriously considered”

    Hmmm…had a read of his proposed bill. Looks like something that should go somewhere (but probably wont 🙁 ). One issue is that it does not seem to address the issue of people who’s applications fail for any reason. That’s a thorny one and i think any bill of this nature should at least speak to that.

  8. “The man also said some people tried to film the incident, but their phones were taken and smashed.”

    Be interesting to see where that one goes. Assault and property damage?? charges to follow??

  9. Darn,
    Thank you for the vote of confidence. 🙂

    I tried really, really hard to avoid the verbal biffo last night but the comment wtte that Eurydice Dixon was, in effect, titillating herself and virtually asking for what happened to her by walking home alone in the dark late at night, just got my goat. The rest, as they say, is history. Next time, I think I’ll just let those people speak for themselves and let their insensitive words do the talking for me. To do otherwise only encourages them to exact upon me the sort of public humiliation I just don’t need in my life. 🙂

  10. psyclaw
    In other words, “men” are snowflakes and hurting their feelings is a more important than violence against women.

  11. Confessions

    “IMAGINE if every time a school shooting happened, police advised all parents to homeschool their children instead? …………………. Yet almost every single time a woman is raped and murdered the police response is to tell women — not perpetrators — to modify their behaviour.”

    I am surprised that an apparently learned woman can not see the fallacy here.

    Every time there is a school shooting, everyone from the President down suggests modifications to school practices ……. armed teachers, armed guards, armed students etc etc, and many other suggestions about which I disagree.

    Even in NSW the government has been busy over the past 20 years enclosing every single school with 2 metre high, spiked, difficult to climb fences.

    The environment where crimes are generally committed has always been a subject of forensic interest in regard to risk assessment. No new news there, and all proper.

  17. imacca @ #105 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 10:09 am

    “Andrew Wilkie outlines an alternative to Mandatory Detention. Given his security experience this should be seriously considered”

    Hmmm…had a read of his proposed bill. Looks like something that should go somewhere (but probably wont 🙁 ). One issue is that it does not seem to address the issue of people who’s applications fail for any reason. That’s a thorny one and i think any bill of this nature should at least speak to that.

    Plus, add to that, the very real security issue of dangerous people that are detained before being deported. For example, in Sydney, we have had people on tourist visas and backpackers who have gotten into violent brawls. Or done other illegal things. So you need somewhere safe and secure to put them, after they have served their custodial sentence and before you send them back to their home country.

  18. @Barney

    Labor or Greens should not support any subsidy of “Tax Cuts” until the companies pay their taxes and pay back all their taxes owing.

  20. We will hear more about the Liberal party meeting

    From the ABC article Barney posted

    Police are yet to determine how many people were involved in the incident and are appealing for anyone with vision of the incident to come forward.

  21. Barney in Go Dau @ #116 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 8:16 am

    Over to the Greens!!

    Labor agrees to split bills

    Labor has decided it will only support the first stage of the government’s income tax plan – and wants to split stage two and stage three into separate bills.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/jun/19/coalition-labor-abc-tax-politics-live

    Well I think we can safely say where this will go: the Greens will vote with he coalition to oppose Labor’s proposal.

  23. RM

    “It’s up to everyone to challenge those attitudes and behaviours, especially the men who consider themselves “good blokes” who don’t deserve to be lumped in with the baddies.”

    Agree, noting that there are many good men, not good just good ‘blokes’, who do so already. Good on us, right?

    ‘But suggesting men might bear even the slightest responsibility for challenging violence perpetrated against women is like waving a red rag at a bull, if the bull had zero self-awareness, raging insecurity over a failed political career, and the name “Mark Latham”.”

    This is true for some, perhaps many, perhaps most, but not for all men. I don’t know the right proportion.

    The problem with this formulation is that it carelessly sets up a straw (wo)man and takes the discussion into a dead end. Just like exactly the same formulation took last night’s Bludger discussion into a dead end.

    The red rag for some men is that some women use language that effectively accuses men, all men, of being either rapists or complicit with rapists.

    The notion that men, all men, and hence myself and ALL of the men I know really well, are anything at all like the repulsive, reprehensible, raving ratbag Latham is, quite simply, absurd.

  24. grimace @ #115 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 10:16 am

    guytaur @ #89 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 7:39 am

    Bette Midler tweets

    How do they keep track of the children they have separated from their parents? Tattoo a number on their wrists?

    One of the problems is that they have no effective way of doing this.

    One effective solution would be to not separate them from their parents in the first instance. Parents generally know best who their children are.

  26. Confessions

    The Greens have already said they are blocking the whole thing. They want money to go to services as being more effective for low income people.

    Having money available for things like raising Newstart for example.

    The Greens gave Labor the balance of power on this bill. The LNP either accept Labor’s position to split the bill or see it voted down.

    Thats the crux. The Greens dealt themselves out already. You can call the Greens position naive etc all you like. However don’t blame the Greens for giving Labor the balance of power on the bill and the ability to put the pressure onto the government.

  28. BW

    The argument is don’t give the likes of Latham the excuse. Call them out for their toxic masculinity of victim blaming.

    Thats mens business.

  29. “Well I think we can safely say where this will go: the Greens will vote with he coalition to oppose Labor’s proposal.”

    Cynic. 🙁 You could well be right fess, but i really hope the Greens go with splitting the bill into 3 parts. I’d see that as the rational response to the crap the Govt are trying to get through.

    Also makes it clear that its the Libs stopping any short term application of personal tax cuts by dummy spitting on “its a package”. There is NO economic management reason for insisting on that, just pure politics, and i think the ALP can hammer that message.

  31. “Thats the crux. The Greens dealt themselves out already. ”

    Damn! Its all gotten too hard for them and they retreat.

  32. guytaur @ #126 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 7:22 am

    Confessions

    The Greens have already said they are blocking the whole thing. They want money to go to services as being more effective for low income people.

    Having money available for things like raising Newstart for example.

    The Greens gave Labor the balance of power on this bill. The LNP either accept Labor’s position to split the bill or see it voted down.

    Thats the crux. The Greens dealt themselves out already. You can call the Greens position naive etc all you like. However don’t blame the Greens for giving Labor the balance of power on the bill and the ability to put the pressure onto the government.

    The choice for the Greens is whether they will support splitting the bill.

    That doesn’t mean they then have to vote in favour of any element of it.

    If they choose not to split the bill then it is more than possible that the whole package will get up.

  33. Cynic. You could well be right fess, but i really hope the Greens go with splitting the bill into 3 parts. I’d see that as the rational response to the crap the Govt are trying to get through.

    They will oppose Labor because it suits their interests to do so.

  34. @Barney

    For many people, Tax Cuts don’t do nothing. Especially in the low income.

    We spend all our income on basic stuff each week.

    We would rather have payments increased to keep up, and rules relaxed surrounding Newstart/Youth Allowance/DSP.

    I give you a good example.

    My wife and I living with my mum and Dad,

    Most of the money is spent on paying Rent, Food, Transport, Phones and Medical.

    Other couple’s have more bills to pay such as Child Care, Education etc.

    If we have a job, we earn less than $18,000 a year anyway, and would qualify for tax free threshold, my mum only works 22 hours a week, to give you an example.

  35. imacca

    Its not a retreat.

    Its a policy position. Given the realities of mathematics it has forced the LNP to negotiate with Labor.

    Thats a win win in my book.

    Not a cowardly retreat because things are too hard.

    So much spin on this blog if this is Labor thinking no wonder the LNP gets to wedge Labor. Reality thrown overboard in the hype of spin

  37. Most here are smart and secure enough not to take personal offence at over-simplistic generalisations, but instead play devils advocate, imagining ourselves as one who would take offence.
    It is in this position that we argue against such generalisations, for the sake of alienating a large number of people that would otherwise be fully supportive.
    One could even imagine some disturbed individual, having been riled up and angry at being cast alongside the murderers and rapists, that they may even act to confirm that place, and actually hurt someone because of what is said in generalisation.
    This is how radicalisation works.
    So you are being counterproductive in the extreme and complicit in the very acts you are trying to prevent.

    Luckily this platform is generally more educated than say, a random social media group.
    But the so-called ‘anti SJW’ group is scarily loud and strong, especially online, and easily moulded into something not far from nazism. So it would be wise to temper your accusatory generalisations with some qualifiers

  39. Zoidlord @ #134 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 7:30 am

    @Barney

    For many people, Tax Cuts don’t do nothing. Especially in the low income.

    We spend all our income on basic stuff each week.

    We would rather have payments increased to keep up, and rules relaxed surrounding Newstart/Youth Allowance/DSP.

    I give you a good example.

    My wife and I living with my mum and Dad,

    Most of the money is spent on paying Rent, Food, Transport, Phones and Medical.

    Other couple’s have more bills to pay such as Child Care, Education etc.

    If we have a job, we earn less than $18,000 a year anyway, and would qualify for tax free threshold, my mum only works 22 hours a week, to give you an example.

    It’s certainly a real issue but unfortunately for you it’s not the issue at hand and something this Government has no will to address.

    Sorry!!!

  40. Have The Greens tried to think laterally for once? How about this for an idea?

    They vote to split the Tax Bills. That way the Working Poor get immediate Cost of Living relief.

    Then, they vote not to allow the 2nd and 3rd tranche of the tax cuts, which should be more than enough money saved to fund an increase in Newstart.

    Win-win!

  41. Barney

    The whole package will only get up if votes change.

    Not going to happen. The government does not have the numbers. Hitch won’t vote for the whole package for one.

    The government splits the bill and it gets Labors votes.
    Thats the best the LNP can hope for. Its that or the whole lot gets voted down.
    The government does not have the numbers to get the whole bill passed

  44. @Barney.

    And yet Labor can because they are supporting Phase One of the Tax Cuts.

    Which means they can do something.

    Otherwise, they just as bad as LNP.

  45. If it is the case that “men” are responsible for the rapes, murder, violence towards women, we need to change “men’s” values and attitudes. To do this we must be nuanced and sophisticated in the discussions because anything else will harden “men’s” attitudes and be counter productive.

    Eggsackery!

    The problem with the language prevalent around this issue isn’t nearly so much that it is largely built on a glaring fallacy of composition (“most rapists and murderers are men therefore men are rapey and murdery” or the milder form where men just have ‘responsibility’ for all this rapey and murderiness). The problem is the simple counter-productiveness of it.

    I find Zoomster’s contributions on this interesting. As a smart person who has done a fair bit of campaigning (with some success) I doubt she would use the same approach to try and get Coalition voters to listen to the campaign message. You didn’t go around telling Coalition voters they bore responsibility for the dumb stupid crap Coalition politicians do did you Z? The causal relationship was far stronger, but it would be politically stupid to go out pissing on the potential recruit as an opening gambit.

    The ongoing cause of reducing male violence is not advanced by the language being used. That might not be ‘fair’ and ladies you can feel superior telling yourselves how men are such snowflakes and SHOULD get the fuck over themselves from here to eternity if you like. But it’s real.

    Most men aren’t going to take the time to analyse why your language on this one strikes a jarring note and offer a friendly critique. They are just going to go Fuck This and head for the comfort of the sort of regressive reactionary dickheads the right use as their recruiters because they don’t get blamed for shit they have barely any connection to by those pricks. Sucks, but hey the real world is pretty shit.

    Choose who you are recruiting for.

  47. guytaur @ #141 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 7:34 am

    Barney

    The whole package will only get up if votes change.

    Not going to happen. The government does not have the numbers. Hitch won’t vote for the whole package for one.

    The government splits the bill and it gets Labors votes.
    Thats the best the LNP can hope for. Its that or the whole lot gets voted down.
    The government does not have the numbers to get the whole bill passed

    The Government won’t split the bill.

    The bill will only be split if Labor, Greens and cross bench unite to amend the bill in such a way.

    If the Greens agree to this then the numbers appear to be there to do so.

    So the splitting of the bill is now entirely in the Greens hands!

  48. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, June 19, 2018 at 10:22 am
    Confessions

    The Greens gave Labor the balance of power on this bill.

    The Gs are denying low income earners a tax break. That’s the long and the short of it.

    They have the opportunity to support Labor. But they would rather freeze taxes paid by workers than give Shorten a win. No wonder the Gs are a fading force….that they are on a unity ticket with Palmer.

  50. ratsak

    The same excuses are trotted out for appeasing homophobia.

    The gays better be nice and well behaved so the homophobes can accept them

    All as part of the whole make them invisible and ineffective.

    Nope some things have to be in your face.

    Calling out violence and the culture that supports it is the responsibility of all men.
    Thats what is being said. No one is saying all men are responsible personally for the violence. They are just saying all men have a role in combatting the violence by challenging that toxic culture.

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