Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll returns after three weeks to find the situation all but totally unchanged.

One Nation are off two points on the primary vote, from 8% to 6%, but the latest Newspoll is otherwise as dull as it gets. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48, both major parties are unchanged at 38% on the primary vote, the Greens are up one to 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 40% and 50% respectively; Bill Shorten is down one to 33% and steady on 55%. Turnbull leads 46-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday, presumably from a sample of about 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

891 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 18
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  1. PeeBee @ #391 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 3:57 pm

    ‘Most men are concerned about the safety of the women in their lives. They see it as part of their responsibilities.’

    Anyone suggesting that a man should keep quiet if their nearest and dearest are going to do something risky because it is their right to go into risky areas is living in LaLa land.

    Exactly!

  3. adrian – well said, Boewar if you are offended by the term men opposed to ‘most men’ may i respectfully suggest there are more important things to get offended by and / or spend your energy on.

    Personally have no problem as a man with a wife and two kids ( i have this discussion with both my son and daughter) saying all men are responsible for addressing and making changes in values and norms that lead to violence against women.

    Seriously if we all think change will occur if we say ‘ some men’ instead of men we are wrong

  4. Grimace,

    To be fair, I’ve had it both ways and my experiences more often match what you write.

    But I’ve had a few shockers too.

  5. adrian @ #392 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 3:58 pm

    Of course it is victim blaming. If only she’d been more careful, if only she’d been more aware of her surroundings, etc etc etc.

    This is something that is rarely told to men in the same way of course.

    Nonsense! I was told that plenty of times by my parents when a young man. I told my sons exactly the same thing.

  6. BTW – and I hope this came through in my post – I’m not at all offended at the suggestion that all males have to take responsibility for the problem of sexual and other violence against women.

    All men are, to a greater or lesser extent, slaves to the testosterone coursing through our bodies, and none of us can truthfully be 100% certain of how we are going to behave in all conceivable circumstances. So, in that sense, we would all do well to reflect frequently on how we relate to the women in our lives, and those we meet in passing.

    However, I would suggest that the proportion of males who would lie in wait in parks late at night to attack random strangers is always going to be pretty small. It’s down one end of a very broad spectrum of bad male behaviour, and is therefore something that is going to be much harder to ask most men to relate to than, say, something like making unwanted advances to a woman at a party after a few drinks.

    That’s why I don’t consider it to be a very productive issue on which to attempt to raise male consciousness.

  7. grimace
    I have never quite recovered from not being invited to the kindergarden mothers end of the year morning tea. This was in a small county town and there were many well-entrenched views about the rightness and wrongness of things. I was the only kindergarden dad. I put it to the women that the times were changing, as they ought, and perhaps they should reconsider the exclusion. After some hesitation, they agreed. I was told afterwards that there was all sorts of things the women would normally have talked about but could not, because a man was there but that it was rather fun and interesting to have a man there.
    So I have been a sort of honorary woman or a trojan horse or a false flag carrier for a very small time in the entire history of the war between the sexes.

  8. Sadly the scourge of the corflute has begun in Mayo. At this stage in my area Sharkie seems to have more on stobie poles than Downer but that is only a sample from the area around which I live. From the burghers I speak with Sharkie seems to be more popular, but with 6 weeks to go who would know.

  9. Challenging men is not ‘man hating’, seriously this sad group speak can be improved.

    Man hating?????? Seriously

  10. ‘SCOUT says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 4:09 pm

    adrian – well said, Boewar if you are offended by the term men opposed to ‘most men’ may i respectfully suggest there are more important things to get offended by and / or spend your energy on.’

    I spend my energy as I will.

    I was trying to ensure that you were more effective in getting our message across. But you are apparently less interested in being fully effective on behalf of all of us than you are in being offensive to some of us.

  12. lizzie says: Monday, June 18, 2018 at 4:05 pm

    Sara‏ @_sara_jade_ · 12m12 minutes ago

    Malcolm Turnbull on TPP “I stuck with it, I kept my commitment to protect Aust jobs.”
    BL TONGUE POKE CONTEMPT, NOSE TOUCH LYING, EYE RUB the brain’s attempt to block out the deceit & avoid looking at faces. IMO he is the most cunning, greedy PM we have ever had. #auspol

    *********************************************

    All that nose touching, eye rubbing etc are body language giveaways in that he KNOWS he is just talking bullshit but he stumbles over his lies and carries on like nothing untruthful has happened to come out of his mouth …..

  13. Boewar – thanks for your advice.

    Again if you are offended by grouped in all men, you are a sensitive soul.

    Maybe all of us blokes could start by asking women what they want, quite a few have told me they are over being told to make sensible choices for survival.

  14. Greensborough Growler says @ Monday, June 18, 2018 at 3:42 pm

    This incident resonates very strongly with me. One of my daughters is exactly the same age, lives in the same vicinity and moves in the same circles as this woman did.

    However, I’ve always taught my children to be aware and not naive and not to take chances with their safety. I totally agree that women should be able to go where they want and conduct their personal affairs without the threat of violence or anything else that would impinge their personal safety.

    The unfortunate thing is that this is not always the reality. Yes, there are predatory males about. In recent years we had the killing of Jill Meagher and now this young woman. How many more have to die for this feminist ideological mantra that it’s about all men that is being propagated at the moment?

    meher baba says @ Monday, June 18, 2018 at 3:49 pm

    There probably isn’t a city, town or village on earth where walking alone through a badly-lit downtown park in the early hours of the morning isn’t a risky activity for anyone: male or female. The threat of being murdered, bashed, robbed or (in the case of women) raped is ever-present. Most of us, particularly when we were younger and couldn’t afford taxi fares, have taken this and other similar risks. Occasionally – as happened to a male friend of mine a few decades back, who was bashed and robbed in a park in Sydney – the ever-present risk turns real. My friend was a victim, and was not to blame in any sort of moral sense for what happened, but he was told by the police that he had made a poor choice in choosing to walk there, and he agreed with them. I can’t see that the police were in any way “blaming” him for what happened here, they were just talking realistically about risk.

    And surely, no matter how much male consciousness-raising might ever be achieved in our society, young women walking alone late at night in dark parks in central Melbourne are going to be at significant risk for many decades, if not centuries to come. With modern airline transportation, males from all over the world can land in Melbourne and, if they are so inclined, attack victims in dark parks on the very day of their arrival. So we don’t just need to raise the consciousness of all Australian men, but all men around the world. And, while I would assume that a considerable proportion of the male population is capable of violent acts against women (date rapes, domestic violence, etc), I believe that the proportion of males who would attack strangers in dark parks late at night is relatively small.

    We as a species are very bad at evaluating risk. These are very rare events. As a generalisation, women are at far greater risk of being killed by a partner or someone else they know, than by a complete stranger when walking alone.

    Very rare events, whether it be the rape and murder of a young woman or a terrorist act, receive a disproportionate amount of publicity. As a result people think they are at far greater risk from such events than they actually are. Ms Dixon did nothing wrong. She was just very, very unlucky.

  15. Along with shouting at people, I also find using language, expressions and rhetorical devices that offend them to be a remarkably effective way of engaging them, bringing them into a discussion, and convincing them of the merits of my arguments.

  16. Very rare events, whether it be the rape and murder of a young woman or a terrorist act, receive a disproportionate amount of publicity. As a result people think they are at far greater risk from such events than they actually are. Ms Dixon did nothing wrong. She was just very, very unlucky.

    Every now and then you read a sensible post.

  17. From The Grauniad blog:

    Over the three-week session, Australia will work with other UN members and civil society to protect and promote human rights worldwide.

    Except in Australia.

  20. Libertarian Unionist @ #403 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 2:09 pm

    Grimace,

    To be fair, I’ve had it both ways and my experiences more often match what you write.

    But I’ve had a few shockers too.

    I’ve had very few shockers fortunately, and that’s having lived in 2 states with my son.

    My wife gets angry because she very rarely gets any of the special treatment, claiming that society expects a woman with a baby to be organised and prepared for anything that happens, and if she’s not, its her fault for not being better prepared.

  23. On what planet do these people live?

    One of the four federal Liberal vice-presidents, Karina Okotel, confirmed to Fairfax Media that she voted in favour of the motion.

    A member of the conservative wing in Victoria, Ms Okotel was elected to the federal executive last year and has been named as a potential candidate for the Senate at the next election. Ms Okotel also moved a motion, passed unanimously, to seek a review into funding for SBS.

    The motion is an aspirational statement by the membership that in the 21st century the days of needing the government to fund a national broadcaster in metropolitan areas are over,” Ms Okotel told Fairax Media on Monday.

    The private sector produces content faster, cheaper and more efficiently, and to ask them to compete against the government is completely unfair.

  24. bemused @ #395 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 4:05 pm

    So people should be gaoled or otherwise detained ‘just in case’? Very totalitarian.

    Well, if you’re going to accept GG’s premise that autistic people can’t be expected to control themselves around others, then yes. It’s not a ‘just in case’ event if the person involved is literally biologically incapable of not raping and killing others. That proposition makes it strictly inevitable that someone will be raped and killed.

    However I never said I accepted GG’s premise. In fact, my entire post was rejecting that premise.

    My proposition is much simpler. People, even people with autism, are capable of controlling their actions; particularly when it comes to not raping and murdering others around them. Anyone who fails to do so is accountable for their own actions and gets 100% of the blame. Their victim(s) get 0%.

  25. SCOUT says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 3:52 pm
    Darn – another bloke making comments on safety?

    Yep all you blokes have the right not to be offended by being lumped in with others.

    I have read repeated comments by men saying she wouldn’t have been killed if she made the right decision

    Yep sorry to offened all your prescious sensibilities it IS victim blaming, !!,!

    Start asking what causes this, both in the unreported instances in homes etc and this one

    Is it therefore ok to ban men from citys aft

    Scout

    The problem with your argument IMO is that you are confusing causality with culpability. They are not the same. If you want to talk about blame, yes I agree. The victim is not to blame. There is only one person who can be blamed and that is the perpetrator.

    But if you want to talk about cause, you have to recognise that there were two basic requirements for this terrible incident to occur. The perpetrator had to be there and the victim had to be there at the same time. To that extent the victim being there was part of the cause. That is undeniable. It does not mean that she was in any way to blame for what happened to her.

    That is the message the police and others are trying to get across. Don’t make yourself part of the cause of these terrible events. See the risks in advance and avoid them. You will never be anything other than innocent if the worst happens to you, but that is not going to get your life back. You only get one crack at it.

  26. LU ‘Along with shouting at people, I also find using language, expressions and rhetorical devices that offend them to be a remarkably effective way of engaging them, bringing them into a discussion, and convincing them of the merits of my arguments.’

    Doing this while drunk, makes them super receptive to your ideas.

  27. Telstra have a big announcement to make to the stock exchange on Wednesday.

    My prediction: massive job cuts and a cut to dividends.

  28. What a stupid argument is being waged here about “men should change their ways”

    1. Of course that proposition refers to “all men”. Understandably, good men supportive of women and helpful to them would be offended. I suspect this would include the majority of men.

    2. It is patently ridiculous to assert that any man or woman should be able to walk anywhere, and if they are harmed in a well known risky environment they are blameless. Being alone in a dark park at night throws up many risks for all people, ranging from simple robbery with minimal violence (snatch n grab) to murder, and everything in between.

    3. What would we say of a parent who did not at some time in their kid’s life teach them that there are some places they should not frequent because of danger. And if that advice was ignored but the kid was unharmed, what parent would nevertheless not castigate the kid and say “I’ve told you not to do that; you got away with it this time but DO NOT GO THERE AGAIN”

    4. Within society there are many attitudes disrespectful of women. In fact such attitudes may be widespread. They include such attitudes as that a woman’s place is in the kitchen and the bedroom, that women don’t deserve equal pay, that women can’t do the job as well as men, that women are less intelligent than men, that to some degree or other women are less important than men, that women are poor managers/bosses, that you can tell a slut by the way she dresses, and that “no” means “yes”. Many men hold some of these attitudes, but many women hold some of these very attitudes too.

    5. If there was a direct link between holding these attitudes and rape / murder, there would be many more rape / murders.

    6. The extreme anti-all men comments here, notably by Scout today and PMTD whenever she’s here, (always supported by sycophant Adrian if perchance Bemused is involved in the discussions) appear to me to be extreme, illogical, incorrect, and political correctness gone berko.

    7. IMHO all kids and adults should always be mindful of risk, and avoid any situation with a large probability of danger. And their friends and acquaintances have every right and responsibility to give them appropriate advice, if they put themselves at risk.

    8. We all have a responsibility to contribute in any way we can to making our’s a more caring society.

    9. There are complex reasons why our imperfect society has ended up as one where murders like Eurydice’s, Daniel Morecome’s etc are fairly common 9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_major_crimes_in_Australia ) and they can only be addressed slowly and over time, regardless of what might be simplistically argued here ie “men should change their ways”

    10. Some of the reasons include the dog-eat-dog aspects of our society (free market capitalism; win at all costs), possible flaws in our imperfect justice system (wrong judgements by parole boards; the rigour of “beyond reasonable doubt” allowing baddies to sometimes go free); our poor mental health system; poverty and unemployment; the drug industry and its sequelae; corrupt institutions etc etc. And to introduce a bit of levity to this grim topic, of course in the mind of extreme Christians, original sin and the innate badness of humans who have not “chosen” Christ is the major player.

  30. Prior to this latest rape and murder of a young woman by a stranger, the only 2 recent ones I recall in Melbourne were perpetrated by an offender, with a history of serious violence, who should have been in custody for parole breaches or other offences. The unfortunate victims were Jill Meagher and Masa Vukotic, I won’t name the offenders.

    So what tools, other than incarceration, are there to ‘change’ the behaviour of such men?
    What happens when their sentence ends?

  31. Cheers Boerwar, time to move on

    You are good at handing out advice useful or not, does not seem like listening is a skill you have developed.

    Darn – she not did make herself part of those terrible events. She did not cause it. The perpetrator did.

    We can do better than this .

  32. PeeBee,

    Ken oath!

    Pouring beers on heads is yet another persuasive technique that I’ve discovered. Definitely engages your audience.

  34. a r @ #423 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 4:36 pm

    bemused @ #395 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 4:05 pm

    So people should be gaoled or otherwise detained ‘just in case’? Very totalitarian.

    Well, if you’re going to accept GG’s premise that autistic people can’t be expected to control themselves around others, then yes. It’s not a ‘just in case’ event if the person involved is literally biologically incapable of not raping and killing others. That proposition makes it strictly inevitable that someone will be raped and killed.

    However I never said I accepted GG’s premise. In fact, my entire post was rejecting that premise.

    My proposition is much simpler. People, even people with autism, are capable of controlling their actions; particularly when it comes to not raping and murdering others around them. Anyone who fails to do so is accountable for their own actions and gets 100% of the blame. Their victim(s) get 0%.

    I don’t know enough about autism to comment on it.
    But I do know we don’t lock people up ‘just in case’ they might commit a crime.

  35. ‘SCOUT says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 4:51 pm

    ‘You are good at handing out advice useful or not, does not seem like listening is a skill you have developed.’

    You are all class, Scout. Anothery for LU and PeeBee.

  37. Labor, Greens, Centre Allianse, Nats etc need to point out that the people who voted to privatise the ABC are the same people controlling preselections for the Liberal Party. How can anyone in the Liberal Party say that the Liberal will never privatise the ABC.

  39. No wonder the LNP want to sell the ABC/SBS – just look at how much more efficient & reliable the private (Optus) sector is.

  40. This came up with the Me Too Movement, against “ the casting couch” . Male famous actor felt the issue was serious, as they said, when they thought of their daughters suffering the same treatment. They had been complicit with Harvey Weinstine for their careers , they all knew what was going on.
    Why do women have to be the ones standing up for a better safer society for women. The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.

  42. I spent a fair bit of time coming and going as I wrote my previous comment.

    I have just read other comments posted in the meanwhile, and acknowledge the sensible words of GG @3.42, Boomy1, Bemused, Meher, Boerwar, AR and Darn.

    The common thread in all their comments is a recognition that the causes and cures for assaults and murders are complex, and don’t really lend themselves to solution by simplistic PC cliches repetitiously shouted on a blogsite.

  43. Steve777

    You know in your heart of hearts you know that our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon and Mayo and also the next election by a landslide and Turnbull will be PM for 10 years and pls stop lying about it

  44. What is ‘mansplaining’? Please explain!

    it’s when they hang their dicks out.
    Once that’s done it’s self explanatory.

  45. grimace @ #437 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 4:55 pm

    bemused @ #435 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 2:53 pm

    PeeBee @ #426 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 4:43 pm

    Telstra have a big announcement to make to the stock exchange on Wednesday.

    My prediction: massive job cuts and a cut to dividends.

    The prediction I heard on ABC radio this morning?

    Don’t forget there will be some reason or other that the board of directors are getting even higher than expected bonuses.

    I worked for a while with its predecessor, Telecom Australia, when it was still publicly owned.
    I would wager that executive salaries are now a large multiple of what they were in those days.
    Is Telstra more efficient and delivering better services?
    Yes, but this comes about far more from Technical change than the genius of any CEO or Board.

  46. I’ve just seen an ad about ensuring you get value out of your health insurance. It got me thinking, I’ve never claimed on my house insurance or my car insurance despite paying the premium for years, and its about time I “got value” out of my house and car insurer.

    When I get home tonight I’m going to make sure that I crash my car into the house in a way that ensures that I write the car off, do substantial structural damage to the house and make sure I need hospital treatment so that from one event I “get value” out of my house, car and health insurance all from a single event.

  48. According to Tom Richardson of InDaily, there has been a third poll from Mayo, this one by ReachTEL for Channel Seven, and it too has Rebekha Sharkie leading Georgina Downer. However, I can’t find any mention of it anywhere online. Has anyone seen this?

  49. LU, poking their chest helps get the message across because of the extra emphasis of your ideas, especially if a little a spittle lands on their face because your face is only inches from theirs and the excess alcohol has made your speech very moist.

    What can go wrong?

  50. Bemused good question, i have worked with sexual assault sevices and they recognize the need to work with perpetrator ( which i found confronting due to the trauma they work with). This needs to occur early when signsare recognised. CASA’s

    There are services that provide counseling / referral / housing etc for those impacted by sexuaul and domestic assault of both genders, while ALSO providing prevention programs. They have every right to be just angry because of the trauma they witness (and witness the circle) but they see the need for prevention. There are programs etc for perpetrators

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