One Nation are off two points on the primary vote, from 8% to 6%, but the latest Newspoll is otherwise as dull as it gets. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48, both major parties are unchanged at 38% on the primary vote, the Greens are up one to 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 40% and 50% respectively; Bill Shorten is down one to 33% and steady on 55%. Turnbull leads 46-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday, presumably from a sample of about 1600.
Kevin Bonham says:
#Newspoll 2PP by 2016 preferences probably around 53.0-47.0.
A shooting in the US and a terror attack in France breaking news
@realDonaldTrump tweets
Daniel Henninger of The Wall Street Journal: “This IG Report makes it clear, as did Rod Rosenstein’s memo, that Trump was absolutely justified, unquestionably justified, in firing Jim Comey. So I think the Mueller Investigation is on pretty weak grounds right now.” Witch Hunt!
Yet more lack of movement in the polls – it’s been around 52-48 for over 18 months now, with primaries around 38 apiece, and nothing seems to have shifted the needle much at all, nor is much likely to.
The situation appears to be that we have an ageing, unpopular government, an Opposition that people are not yet completely sold on, and a decent minority of voters (around 25% or so) that are parking their votes with minor parties.
The preferences of those minor parties will end up deciding the election, but you’d generally speaking prefer to be in Labor’s shoes than in the Coalition’s at the moment.
@jaketapper tweets
Breaking from @washingtonpost: Roger Stone says in May 2016 he met with a Russian man who offered damaging information about Hillary Clinton in exchange for $2 million, which Stone says he rejected:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-associate-roger-stone-reveals-new-contact-with-russian-national-during-2016-campaign/2018/06/17/4a8123c8-6fd0-11e8-bd50-b80389a4e569_story.html?utm_term=.3ff6c4597e8c
( I put my poll comments on previous thread)
Regarding the sale of the ABC, and Diogenes’s comments earlier: this seems to me rather like the sale of the Commonwealth Bank. Are things really better now than would have been the case had we still had at least one major bank which was in public ownership, and honestly run? The current problems probably weren’t foreseen when the Commonwealth was sold, and these things are path dependent: there’s no way it can now be bought back. Same with the ABC. For all it’s good and bad points, do we want to be in a situation where the standards of reporting in this country are those of 2GB?
Fromthe previous thread:
Boer – so labor should continue to stay silent? If the left/centre left doesn’t speak out then dutton and co have won.
FFS, Dutton and co win when they win the next election.
Labor strategy and tactics are focused on preventing that outcome. They are showing considerable discipline to not shoot their mouths off and undermine the strategy.
You are doing the enemy’s work.
Shootings in the US and elsewhere, especially with multiple casualties, are really terror attacks.
LU
The polling indicates the LNP beat up about AS is not working.
I think this is because the comments by Sally McManus on temporary visas and infrastructure is working.
Labor can keep hammering that. The ABC sell off is part of the picture of look after the big end of town neo liberal economics too.
Every time AS is brought up Labor should talk wages and visas.
Thats whats got the polls so static. That hip pocket nerve reality is biting.
From the previous bludge:
sustainable future says:
Sunday, June 17, 2018 at 8:50 pm
Boer – so labor should continue to stay silent? If the left/centre left doesn’t speak out then dutton and co have won. Beasley stuffed this up completely by going to water and labor has continued their appeasement policy ever since. The Greens speak up about this and if that hurts labor it it because they are as weak as piss on the issue.
It’s probable that anti-Labor moaning by the Gs on this issue is actually positive for Labor these days. It certainly would not “hurt” Labor as the Gs may fervently wish. Nor can it possible help the Gs when they lash out at the non-G population and label them all as racist.
so labor should continue to stay silent?
Yes, within reason. Labor should be talking about what Abbott, Dutton, Morrison et al don’t want to, not fight them on their turf.
After all, you won’t find the Coalition talking about their real plans for Medicare.
People really have just stopped listening.
This is as much about internal culture wars within the Liberals than using them to incite swing voters.
Forgot to mention Turnbull. Well, he is forgettable.
guytaur says:
Sunday, June 17, 2018 at 10:49 pm
LU
The polling indicates the LNP beat up about AS is not working.
The polling indicates that Labor is ahead in spite of G and LNP skullduggery over asylum seekers, among many other things.
so labor should continue to stay silent?
Labor should not wedge themselves simply in order to gratify the Gs.
briefly
You can phrase it how you like. You are confirming my point about AS (hat is boats) not affecting the polling. The LNP really tried it on this week.
I put above I agree with Sally McManus as to why.
I think Bludgertrack is set up to use the Newspoll-adapted split of ON prefs. Presumably, as ON fades, this factor will also correct itself in Bludgertrack.
The polling indicates the LNP beat up about AS is not working.
Precisely because the ALP are starving the issue of oxygen.
Steve777 @ #11 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 10:54 pm
Don’t need to talk, it’s all documented by the IPA.
LU
Not so. We have had a week of LNP beat up.
It started with the stories about the Victorian State Conference.
If AS was going to bite that would have been enough. As I said previously the AS issue is over hyped by the media.
Unity and the perception of weakness on a policy have more to do with it than the issue itself now.
All Bil Shorten has to do is repeat what he said on QandA. Then talk about wages and inequality.
Thats not being silent on the issue. Its deflecting the LNP wedge of the hip pocket nerve they use to exploit the racist fear of people losing income to refugees.
Remember these attacks are going to increase as the polls stay static.
Attacks the LNP is losing. The Boats bogeyman is falling to the reality of inequality and Labor’s selling of that.
Batman really did show that A-S is no longer a momentum-building issue for the Gs. They have nothing much to run with the days.
I did note that Larissa Waters used the same rationale for wanting to return to politics as Clive Palmer – that is, they reckon voters are sick of “all the other politicians”. So that’s it. Palmer and the Gs are on unity ticket.
52-48
How unsurprisement
G,
I respectfully disagree with your reading of the tactics in play.
As LNP have nothing to work against, they end up looking like shills. Labor discipline at work.
LU not logged in @ #18 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 9:02 pm
Yep. Labor are keeping the pressure on the govt on those corporate tax cuts.
And yet more info comes out. Stone has had more positions on his involvement in Trump’s campaign than I’ve had hot dinners. Here’s another.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-associate-roger-stone-reveals-new-contact-with-russian-national-during-2016-campaign/2018/06/17/4a8123c8-6fd0-11e8-bd50-b80389a4e569_story.html?utm_term=.448c7c58bec0
LU
You are misreading my comments.
I am saying I do not like the tactics. I am not saying they are ineffective.
These are two different things. I hate the fact Labor has to do this. I want Labor to uphold human rights.
I believe they will as they have said they will when in government.
As I said earlier I think its appalling that Labor cannot set a timeline when opposing indefinite detention. However thats how much emotion has taken over from facts in the AS debate.
What I do know is that Labor is right to play to the hip pocket nerve and talk about inequality and the end of neo liberalism trickle down economics. Long term that will do more to end the insanity on AS debate than anything else
The polling tells us after a week of LNP beating up on the AS issue the polls have not moved. They have tried. Boy have the LNP tried. Look at the QT most of us could not watch when Dutton spoke about this.
His over reach is killing this issue for the LNP just like with terror and Treaties with our Indigenous people.
Anyway its time I said goodnight.
Glad of the poll results. 🙂
Whether you like them or not is immaterial, G.
As I said earlier I think its appalling that Labor cannot set a timeline when opposing indefinite detention.
What is appalling is the LNP’s record on AS issues.
briefly @ #17 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 8:01 pm
I thought William only used the primary figures from polls and then allocated his own preference distribution.
If that’s the case, how Newspoll or any other pollster distributes preferences is irrelevant.
I should add that I’m partly playing devils advocate on the ABC selling off. I’m not too fussed but I’d prefer it to stay although I’ve stopped listening to triple j as it seems I’m too old. 🙁
Dio,
Try double j
pedant (from previous thread)
If you’re so worried about them having your email address, open a free account with yahoo or gmail just for that purpose. If you don’t want to be barraged with marketing/campaign emails simply never log into it again.
Simples.
The LNP can’t go to an election on these latest figures which the experts will deem closer to 53-47.
I would like to see some figures for Turnbull in his own electorate.
It just becomes a decision between dragging out the inevitable loss at the next election or dumping the supposedly popular PM. What will the LNP members at risk do next? Dutton is one of these at risk members. Perhaps Turnbull will, with full gallantry, fall on his sword for the sake of the party!
Turnbull, pacing the terrace of his harbourside mansion, in full view of Kirribilli, Shakespearean, evoking the ghost of Tampa, thou didst forsake me for some fault or thereabouts.
The older LNP members would be well advanced with their post political arrangements, the halfway there mob frustratingly annoyed and the younger aspirants perplexed.
The CPG can maintain their self-importance for a bit longer before the reset button is engaged.
Bill Shorten will almost certainly become the next PM. It was meant to be!
Senator MacDonald and Tony Abbott will remain as they know no other.
Morning all. Hola Mexico, and congratulations on beating Germany! And as for the poll result, Mal keeps them coming.
Israel must be consulting Dutton for policy advice. A sure sign their security forces are behaving ethically, under such good quality leadership.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/new-israeli-law-could-outlaw-the-filming-of-palestinian-protests-20180618-p4zm1y.html
The fact that Phon is still on 6% is remarkable. Pauline’s grumpy old men vote is as rusted on as any bloc. Or are they just the anti major vote? No wonder Clive is relaunching his brand. A Semate gig is still worth money.
Barney in Go Dau says:
..
If that’s the case, how Newspoll or any other pollster distributes preferences is irrelevant.
William posted a long article justifying his movement to the News Poll split.
We have now seen the movement to the liberals that resulted from altering the preference flow assumption pretty much evaporate; along with the come back stories. Kevin Bonham’s 2PP result based on the previous election preference split is given at the start of the thread.
It these results hold through the election and preference flow as they did in the last election we a talking about a serious Liberal wipeout.
The Government must hate Storer!
An Independent not afraid to call out Government bullshit and seemingly not willing to sell out his position for a cup of sugar.
I wonder how influential Storer is with his colleagues?
The Greens position is interesting especially in light of guytaur’s efforts yesterday.
It’s another case of, if they hold their position opposing all tax cuts then it is possible/probable that all the tax cuts will get through, while if they support splitting the bill then only the low income rebate should pass.
Do they wish to be relevant or do they just want sit in their tower and say, sorry we didn’t want any of them so it’s not our fault!!!
I can’t see how the Greens can justify not spitting the bill, as it in no way means they then have to vote for any element of it and so they can still maintain their purity!!! 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/18/tim-storer-asks-crossbench-colleagues-to-prioritise-tax-relief-for-lowest-paid
Barney in Go Dau
My money is on the Greens voting with the Liberals on the split in an attempt to shaft Labor. We have seen some shocking outcomes because of the Green tactics; why should this be any different?
frednk @ #36 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 3:19 am
You left out and missed my point.
William works with the primary figures from polling so how any particular pollster allocates preferences is irrelevant.
The BludgerTrack 2PP is his calculation not effected by how other pollsters determine theirs. 🙂
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Here’s the Guardian’s take on the latest Newspoll results.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/18/coalition-gap-labor-latest-newspoll
Jess Irvine sets the scene by saying that almost unnoticed, cost of living pressures have climbed back to the top of the political agenda, just like they did in 2007.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dangerous-territory-as-households-feel-sting-20180617-p4zm01.html
Letter writers to the SMH hand out a big warning to the government about the potential privatisation of the ABC.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/privatising-the-abc-at-your-peril-is-the-warning-to-liberal-party-20180617-p4zm0s.html
And Bill Shorten has warned that the Liberal Party would be “emboldened” by an election victory to sell the ABC, seizing on a Liberal policy vote on the weekend as a key issue at the federal byelections on July 28.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/they-will-sell-off-shorten-moves-to-make-abc-an-election-issue-20180617-p4zlz1.html
Phil Coorey says that with the latest resolution the Liberals are making the next scare campaign as easy as ABC.
https://outline.com/7p68dM
Michelle Grattan hits the nail on the head by writing that a re-elected Turnbull government wouldn’t sell the ABC, whatever scare Bill Shorten might be raising. But you’d have to be an optimist to think that if it wins, it won’t intensify its bullying and denigration of the public broadcaster.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-threat-to-the-abc-is-not-sale-but-more-bullying-98455
The New Daily tells us that there is everything to fear in the Liberal proposal to sell the ABC. It says the ABC’s ‘strategic silence’ isn’t working.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/06/17/liberal-proposal-sell-abc-analysis/
Awaking from her apparent slumber ABC managing director Michelle Guthrie will soon seek to head off a potential staff revolt and strongly defend the national broadcaster from its political and commercial critics.
https://outline.com/pj8nUy
Senate independent Tim Storer has made a last-ditch plea to the Greens, Labor and his wavering crossbench colleagues to split the Turnbull government’s income tax bill to give low paid workers some hip pocket relief while blocking expensive tax cuts for high flyers.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/18/tim-storer-asks-crossbench-colleagues-to-prioritise-tax-relief-for-lowest-paid
Greg Jericho explains how the news was not good this week for those hoping for an end to the weak wages growth – weakening employment figures suggest little chance of wages growth improving, and a speech by the head of the Reserve Bank suggests the problem is unlikely to be improved soon.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jun/17/good-luck-with-telling-voters-they-are-better-off-than-a-few-years-ago
David Crowe writes that Frydenberg is facing demands from the left that the NEG be amended or replaced to set a bigger ambition to cut emissions and help renewables. He says that the arguments on both sides willingly ignore the vital design feature of the NEG – to create a mechanism that can be adjusted if the emission target changes.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/extreme-pressure-is-not-stopping-the-national-energy-guarantee-20180617-p4zm0c.html
In a typical ideological whinge The Australian tells us that power companies were privately told that the national energy guarantee would favour renewable energy sources and the NEG is “an EIS by stealth”.
https://outline.com/tmvVYy
Eryk Bagshaw uses a tragic example to demonstrate how inflexible the government is over provision of childcare.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/everyone-except-the-government-knows-childcare-isn-t-predictable-20180617-p4zlzf.html
Richo says that there is only one exception to the general rule that if you are going to get sick then get sick right here at home in Australia but it is in the treatment of the mentally ill that Australia has been continually out of step.
https://outline.com/hGz79c
In typical form Israel has moved to snap the lens shut on rights groups that monitor its troops’ interactions with Palestinians by introducing a bill that would make it a criminal offence.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/new-israeli-law-could-outlaw-the-filming-of-palestinian-protests-20180618-p4zm1y.html
The operator of Darwin Port is struggling to pay down debt and is reliant on a letter of support from its Chinese owner. This adds another layer.
https://outline.com/tzuWaz
Trump wants free trade, but not on a unilateral basis.
https://outline.com/sUeDD7
In an interesting contribution Lucy Battersby explains how, with the big social media companies having become too big to fail – as opposed to too big to fail – our democracy is more important than Facebook’s profits.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/our-democracy-is-more-important-than-facebook-s-profits-20180613-p4zl52.html
But Paul Chadwick suggests that people may be coming less reliant on Facebook for their news.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/17/facebook-news-publishers-accuracy
Clancy Yeates tells us that property investors seeking to borrow many times their income are tipped to come under increased scrutiny, as banks respond to regulatory pressure to restrict higher-risk mortgage lending.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/highly-geared-borrowers-tipped-to-face-extra-scrutiny-20180615-p4zlp7.html
Deep anger over farm evictions, unconscionable rural lending and the enormous stress placed on isolated families by heavy-handed banks is set to reignite next week when the financial services royal commission sits in Brisbane for a special hearing on farm financing.
https://outline.com/Hg7bCw
Wacka Williams can’t wait for it.
https://outline.com/MDxjHD
Here’s Urban Wronski’s latest offering.
https://urbanwronski.com/2018/06/17/can-trump-and-kims-singapore-summit-farce-alert-us-to-the-dangers-facing-our-own-democracy/
Chinese telco Huawei has written to federal MPs to warn excluding its “world-leading technologies” from the roll-out of the 5G network would inflate costs for consumers and result in an inferior service.
https://outline.com/CExUSa
Europe is fast losing interest in the Brexit soap – it has bigger worries.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/17/europe-losing-interest-brexit-soap-it-has-bigger-worries
Tanya Plibersek has an op=ed on how academic freedom is at the heart of Ramsay Centre furore.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/academic-freedom-is-at-heart-of-ramsay-centre-furore-20180615-p4zls0.html
This does not bode well for Tesla.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/06/17/director-michael-morris-escapes-burning-tesla/
In a remarkable achievement, it took just a single article in an obscure publication for Tony Abbott to destroy the aspirations of the Ramsay Centre for Western Civilisation. What a tremendous wrecker he is!
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abbott-singlehandedly-destroys-ramsay-centre-for-cheering-on-white-people,11606
Concerns about road congestion and public transport links have easily overtaken aircraft noise as the biggest public issues confronting Sydney Airport.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/congested-roads-overtake-aircraft-noise-as-biggest-sydney-airport-gripe-20180617-p4zlye.html
Technology writer John McDulig writes that the Optus’ epic World Cup streaming failure gives Telstra boss a free kick.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/optus-epic-world-cup-streaming-fail-gives-telstra-boss-a-free-kick-20180615-p4zlqj.html
Nine has chosen to be without a major Summer sport, leaving rival Seven with the tennis and cricket.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/nine-walks-away-from-2019-australian-open-after-talks-with-seven-break-down-20180615-p4zltd.html
Cartoon Corner
Two crackers about privatisation from Mark David!
:large
Glen Le Lievre with a landscape of Nauru.
Nice work from Mark Knight.
And from Roy Taylor.
Sean Leahy and the return of Clive Palmer.
Jon Kudelka and the sale of the ABC.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2fa2746b91b58277aee4cc5b3d165166
A few more in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-june-18-2018-20180617-h11hwf.html
Trump confidante Roger Stone admits he met with Russian national offering info on Hillary in 2016: report
According to a new report from the Washington Post, President Donald Trump confidante Roger Stone held a secret meeting with a Russian national who offered “dirt” on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton prior to the 2016 presidential election.
The report states that the man, who identified himself as Henry Greenberg, first approached Trump aide Michael Caputo who then referred him to Stone.
Speaking with the Post, Stone admitted that Greenberg claimed to possess scandalous information on Clinton and wanted Trump to pay him $2 million for the info.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/trump-confidante-roger-stone-admits-met-russian-national-offering-info-hillary-2016-report/
Rick Wilson: GOPers ‘write daily erotic fanfic about Trump’s executive power’ but are silent on splitting families
“The cheering section in the ‘conservative’ media that has been screeching with joy over Trump’s executive orders, his unlimited pardon power, steamrolling the rule of law, etc ad nauseam is STRANGELY silent on why he doesn’t just change the family separation policy by diktat,” Wilson wrote on Twitter.
He, then, fired off a second scorching tweet.
“These people are essentially writing daily erotic fanfic about Trump’s executive power and are mute on this one,” Wilson raged. “It’s almost — ALMOST — as if they’re a bunch of tendentious doucheholes taking pleasure in the misery and trauma the policy causes.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/rick-wilson-gopers-write-daily-fanfic-about-trumps-executive-power-but-are-silent-on-splitting-families/
https://www.texasmonthly.com/news/whats-really-happening-asylum-seeking-families-separated/
The Australian
Front Page
BK
Thank you.
I assume that Newspoll would have been out in the field before the Liberal’s Secret Plan to Destroy the ABC was leaked by the National Liberal Council Meeting.
The Daily Telegraph
Front Page
That Shorten dude. Where has he hidden that 10 billion ❓
The Sydney Morning Herald
Front Page
The ABC is much more than one TV station.
Confessions says: Monday, June 18, 2018 at 7:50 am
Kyle GriffinVerified account@kylegriffin1
4h4 hours ago
“”I’m going to take your child to get bathed.” That’s one we see again and again. … The child goes off, and in a half an hour, twenty minutes, the parent inquires, “Where is my five-year-old?” … And they say, “You won’t be seeing your child again.””
https://www.texasmonthly.com/news/whats-really-happening-asylum-seeking-families-separated/
***************************************************************************
Even Melania has a view about her husband’s cruel border policies.