ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor in Darling Range

A week out from the McGowan government’s first electoral test in Western Australia, a new poll suggests Labor will do rather a lot better than they might have feared.

The West Australian had a ReachTEL poll yesterday of voting intention for next week’s state by-election in Darling Range, which Labor won by a 5.8% margin after an 18.9% swing at the state election last March, and which is now being vacated by Barry Urban after it emerged his CV had been littered with falsehoods. The result is remarkably strong for Labor, who hold a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. The online report is a little vague on the primary vote, but it seems after exclusion of the 10% undecided that the primary vote for Labor candidate Tania Lawrence is little changed on the election result, while Liberal candidate Alyssa Hayden is up from 30.4% to around 34%. One Nation look to be around 10%, and the Greens on around 4%. More than half the respondents said Barry Urban’s resignation (and presumably also the first choice of Labor candidate, Colleen Yates, after it emerged she had exaggerated her educational attainments on her LinkedIn profile) would not affect their vote, with around a third saying they were less likely to vote Labor and 16% somehow registering that they were more likely to. The poll had 600 respondents; the field work data is not provided, but I’m assuming it was Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

19 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor in Darling Range”

  1. I must admit some surprise that Labor is not only ahead in this particular poll but the margin is a wide as it is. If ever a party should get a kick in the pants for the mess in Darling Range, it is/was Labor on this occasion. The sample seems small but then it is only one electorate after all. Good luck to the Labor candidate in any event. Mike Nahan is on a hiding to nothing as Liberal leader at the moment regardless of the outcome in the election. However, who else is there? Bit like Labor in Queensland not so long ago. The current Opposition would fit comfortably in a small bus.

  2. It looks to me as if they badly need John Howard to interpret the polls over there. Otherwise the Liberals will never win a thing.

  3. Nice to see a hopeful result here. As I noted in the general thread, Labor seem to be pulling out all the stops whereas the Lib campaign appears almost non-existent at the northern end of the electorate.

    As for Colleen Yates, if bigging yourself up on your LinkedIn profile is a political hanging offence then that’s, oh, I dunno, maybe 98% of those with LinkedIn profiles excluded from public office ;).

  4. Before MN got into parliament he was for ever on the local airways telling us the virtues of the “Free Market”…………Since being in parliament he has found the whole political thing a lot harder then shouting advice from the sidelines…………..He seems a nice sort of bloke but he is leading a ragtag lot of survivors and none of them inspire any kind of confidence.
    While the next election is the best part of three years away, despite all, Labor can only lose the election at this point, rather than the LNP winning. However, if we get a Labor government in Canberra, and while no WA politician loses votes kicking the Canberra can, the LNP seem to get more out of it……… least in the days of Rudd and Gillard when both were considered political poison in Perth.

  5. I suppose we should credit Nahan for one thing: he was prepared to serve while the rest of the so-called liberal leaders in waiting disappeared back to their electorates and have barely been heard of since.

  6. William Bowe @ #8 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    Mike Nahan should resign if the Liberals don’t win this by-election, and also if they do.

    Who do you propose replaces him? There’s very little talent left that is not damaged goods, and the Liberals squandered an opportunity for renewal at the recent by-election with a candidate who’ll be in his 70’s when the Liberals are next competitive in a WA election.

  7. I would think that if the Liberals roll Nahan then he’ll resign from Parliament. He’s currently 67 and I wouldn’t think he’d be much interested in doing the hard yards of an opposition backbencher with no realistic prospect of returning to a senior position and who would be unlikely to be on the government benches until he was in his mid 70’s.

  8. Grimace

    There was talk soon after the election trying to get joe Francis back in the parliament ASAP as he was seen as leadership material with a tough approach needed to take the fight to magowan.

    That was said in the context of Barnett quitting early but the Cottesloe Libs were never likely to accept Francis

    But if Nahan was to go I guess that would open the door for him.

  9. William Bowe says:
    Sunday, June 17, 2018 at 8:24 pm
    Mike Nahan should resign if the Liberals don’t win this by-election, and also if they do.

    Choice, William, choice!!!

  10. As the old joke used to be – usually used against Labor in such instances – that the next leader of the Liberals in WA is still at school. Their lack of depth was apparent when Colin was chief and now the cupboard seems totally empty of leaders. Perhaps Head Kicker Joe is an option? Maybe Matt Birney? Who knows? They have to find a seat they can win, and as Darling Range seems to be turning out, this is no sure bet.

  11. Maybe Christian Porter might like to go back into state politics if the people of Pearce deliver an expected killer blow to his Federal career?

    Wasn’t Liza “homelessness is the fault of the charities” Harvey supposed to be the leader-in-waiting?

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