Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll returns after three weeks to find the situation all but totally unchanged.

One Nation are off two points on the primary vote, from 8% to 6%, but the latest Newspoll is otherwise as dull as it gets. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48, both major parties are unchanged at 38% on the primary vote, the Greens are up one to 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 40% and 50% respectively; Bill Shorten is down one to 33% and steady on 55%. Turnbull leads 46-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday, presumably from a sample of about 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

891 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 10 of 18
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  1. Boerwar

    I take it that you really do understand “mansplaining” and are being rhetorical.

    In case you’re not, its just another PC cliche which more or less as used by RM is just saying that discussions here by men this arvo are longwinded and are intended to obfuscate, minimise and rationalise the negative role of men in society.

    In other words it’s an oblique back hander to those commenters.

  2. Since no one else has volunteered.

    “Mansplaining” is when a male explains in great and condescending detail something that a woman already knows.

  3. Wayne @ #442 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:01 pm

    Steve777

    You know in your heart of hearts you know that our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon and Mayo and also the next election by a landslide and Turnbull will be PM for 10 years and pls stop lying about it

    Wayne, I think your optimism is admirable.
    Why don’t you back it with a pledge that if the Libs don’t win Longman, Braddon and Mayo, you will give up on PB?
    Show the courage of your convictions. 😀

  4. Darn – she not did make herself part of those terrible events

    .

    Yes she did. By being there. If she had taken the lift offered to her she would be still alive today.

    That is not blaming her. It is just recognising reality.

  5. If Australia has a chance to partner on a Chinese infrastructure project that serves its economic interests, the government would consider it. But it can’t involve bribing local officials, unnecessarily damaging the environment, or leaving the host nation heavily indebted and therefore vulnerable to coercion.

    What does that even mean? We unnecessarily damage our environment all the time! Great Barrier Reef, forest clearing, rising emissions, Murray-Darling , – – -need I go on? So, what yardstick is Ciobo using?
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/asia/china-s-trillion-dollar-project-changing-the-world-20180618-p4zm4k.html

  6. Grimace, read the fine print in your insurance contract before acting to get value from your premium (and don’t do it when pissed). You might be surprised by what you are NOT covered for.

    For instance, I heard of one person who had ‘impact by animal’ as one of the events their house was covered for. They went away for a time and a possum fell through their chimney inside and tore up the drapes smashed stuff off tables and eventually died leaving a terrible mess. When it came to claim, they got nothing. ‘Impact’ meant the animal had to ‘fall’ on the house. Handy if an elephant lost control while flying over your house, but little else.

    For those people living in low areas near the sea, check you policy for words like ‘inundation’ and or ‘flooding’ it may not mean what you think they do and are therefore not covered by rising sealevel events.

  7. ‘lizzie says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 5:08 pm

    Since no one else has volunteered.

    “Mansplaining” is when a male explains in great and condescending detail something that a woman already knows.’

    lizzie, I dips me lid. You were far more to the point and succinct than psyclaw!

  8. SCOUT @ #449 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:06 pm

    Bemused good question, i have worked with sexual assault sevices and they recognize the need to work with perpetrator ( which i found confronting due to the trauma they work with). This needs to occur early when signsare recognised. CASA’s

    There are services that provide counseling / referral / housing etc for those impacted by sexuaul and domestic assault of both genders, while ALSO providing prevention programs. They have every right to be just angry because of the trauma they witness (and witness the circle) but they see the need for prevention. There are programs etc for perpetrators

    Had to scroll back to locate my question!
    I appreciate your informed response. I did have a general awareness that such services existed but I suspect they are totally inadequate.
    One earlier marker is cruelty to animals.
    You may recall a chap named Paul Denyer (now Paula Denyer) who murdered a series of young women in the Frankston area.
    Years prior to this when he was a kid, his family lived at Mulgrave and he was either suspected or known to have perpetrated some pretty serious acts of animal cruelty that made the local paper. For some reason, that and his name stuck in my head and it hit me like a flash when he was named as the killer.
    But if something like that has not happened, how do you identify such people in advance of them doing something bad? And if you do identify them, how do you get them to undertake effective treatment? How can you be sure it was effective and they are not just pretending?

    It is a wicked problem.

  9. Ciobo is a liberal therefore there is no such thing as environmental damage. Perhaps he is thinking of logging forests to destruction, fishing until the fish runout before he and his mates can do it themselves.

  10. We could make up a definition of ‘womansplaining’.
    The rules are that it has to be a put down.
    It has to infer that all women suffer from this shortcoming.
    Preferably it should give a nod to some dopey stereotype about women.

  11. The misandry of some on this site is nauseating. Curiously, some of it is from males who must suffer from massive insecurities or other problems.

    I just died from inhaling my own tongue after reading what someone else wrote with a straight face.

  12. Boerwar @ #455 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:13 pm

    psyclaw
    Oh? Just another gratuitous insult to all decent men? That should work.

    Boerwar @ #459 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:17 pm

    ‘lizzie says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 5:08 pm

    Since no one else has volunteered.

    “Mansplaining” is when a male explains in great and condescending detail something that a woman already knows.’

    lizzie, I dips me lid. You were far more to the point and succinct than psyclaw!

    S, you’re more than a Sentimental Bloke?

  13. William Bowe @ #445 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 2:05 pm

    According to Tom Richardson of InDaily, there has been a third poll from Mayo, this one by ReachTEL for Channel Seven, and it too has Rebekha Sharkie leading Georgina Downer. However, I can’t find any mention of it anywhere online. Has anyone seen this?

    William,
    I saw reference in an article about 3 polls and the implication was that the result was the same as the other two.

    Sorry no more than that. 🙂

  14. boomy1 @ #463 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:20 pm

    The misandry of some on this site is nauseating. Curiously, some of it is from males who must suffer from massive insecurities or other problems.

    I just died from inhaling my own tongue after reading what someone else wrote with a straight face.

    Agree, Elvis has now left the building!

  15. boomy1 @ #464 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:20 pm

    The misandry of some on this site is nauseating. Curiously, some of it is from males who must suffer from massive insecurities or other problems.

    I just died from inhaling my own tongue after reading what someone else wrote with a straight face.

    Heh, I hope it wasn’t too serious.

  16. Bonnie Maie‏ @BonnieMaie

    I am tired and exhausted – all women are, but this is just a tweet to remind you that @TurnbullMalcolm committed more money to a Captain Cook memorial statue than to DV and Sexual Assault Services and Prevention in 2018. Just let that sink in. #auspol #EurydiceDixon #qiyu

  17. PBers
    According to an article by David Crowe in SMH, Liberal Party federal council voted for ABC selling by the margin of (39:10) 4:1 and not 2:1 as reported ealier.

  18. Anybody who uses the phrase ‘politically correct’ or PC should have their arguments immediately discounted due to the fact that it’s a phrase of truly monumental idiocy, and those that use it usually have no idea what it actually means, because it actually means nothing.

  19. ‘lizzie says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 5:25 pm

    Bonnie Maie‏ @BonnieMaie

    I am tired and exhausted – all women are, but this is just a tweet to remind you that @TurnbullMalcolm committed more money to a Captain Cook memorial statue than to DV and Sexual Assault Services and Prevention in 2018. Just let that sink in. #auspol #EurydiceDixon #qiyu’

    Good point, IMO.

  20. Bemused

    Yep i am not a regular poster, usually at work 9_5 but home with my sick daughter,and not good at quoting ( apologies). Regular reader.

    Picking the indicators can / usually occur when young usually overt behaviour etc etc, this is whe services should be in place but funding……. the irony and the hard thing to cope with is lots of perpetrators have often experienced trauma ( similar to what they exhibit) hence my reference to the circle.

    There is a lot of research i am not the ‘expert’ but i am passionate and apologies for offence to others. My passion is about keeping discussion on causes (including men owning up to actions etc) and how to prevent the trauma as the consequences keep going……

  21. Current Labor policy seems to be to commit $70 million to DV services but this seems to be more after the fact rather than prevention. I am not sure.

  22. adrian @ #473 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:28 pm

    Anybody who uses the phrase ‘politically correct’ or PC should have their arguments immediately discounted due to the fact that it’s a phrase of truly monumental idiocy, and those that use it usually have no idea what it actually means, because it actually means nothing.

    I apply this rule whenever I see you posting something that includes the words ABC.

  23. As Chris Bowan implied earlier, the PBO is not happy with the questioning of the their costings.

    So the Parliamentary Budget Office is NOT happy with how its costings have been treated by the government in its commentary today. It has just released this statement:

    Earlier today, comments have been made about the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) estimates of the gains to revenue that may flow from the Australian Labor Party’s (ALP’s) policy to make imputation credits non-refundable.

    “The PBO brings our best professional judgement to the independent policy costing advice we provide. We have access to the same data and economic parameters as The Treasury and draw upon similar information in forming our judgements,” Parliamentary Budget Officer Jenny Wilkinson stated today.

    “We stand behind the PBO estimates that have been published by the ALP in relation to this policy, noting that all policy costings, no matter who they are prepared by, are subject to uncertainty.” In its advice, the PBO is explicit about the judgements and uncertainties associated with individual policy costings.

    The PBO confirms that it always takes into account current and future policy commitments, as well as behavioural changes, in its policy costings. In this case, as outlined at the recent Senate Estimates hearings, these included the superannuation changes announced in the 2016–17 Budget and the scheduled company tax cuts. In addition, the PBO explicitly assumed that there would be significant behavioural changes that would flow from this policy, particularly for trustees of self-managed superannuation funds.

    The PBO was established as an independent institution in 2012 with broad support from the Parliament. A key rationale for the formation of the PBO was to develop a more level playing field, by providing independent and unbiased advice to all parliamentarians about the estimated fiscal cost of policy proposals. The purpose of establishing the PBO was to improve the public’s understanding of, and confidence in, policy costings and enable policy debates to focus on the merits of alternative policy proposals.

    The Guardian blog.

  24. When did this place become the Redpill subreddit?

    I notice the usual suspects who spend all day, every day posting on here and clearly don’t leave their houses are the ones pushing the “misandry” line.

    I can’t wait until this place becomes an Incel forum. Maybe Colton could come back and be a moderator.

    No wonder everybody who has anything interesting to say leaves.

  25. SCOUT @ #475 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:30 pm

    Bemused

    Yep i am not a regular poster, usually at work 9_5 but home with my sick daughter,and not good at quoting ( apologies). Regular reader.

    Picking the indicators can / usually occur when young usually overt behaviour etc etc, this is whe services should be in place but funding……. the irony and the hard thing to cope with is lots of perpetrators have often experienced trauma ( similar to what they exhibit) hence my reference to the circle.

    There is a lot of research i am not the ‘expert’ but i am passionate and apologies for offence to others. My passion is about keeping discussion on causes and how to prevent the trauma as the consequences keep going……

    I admire your passion. But, blaming all men in the case of Ms Dixon is a sure way to be totally ignored as a possible sane or rational commentator on the topic.

  26. adrian @ #472 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 3:28 pm

    Anybody who uses the phrase ‘politically correct’ or PC should have their arguments immediately discounted due to the fact that it’s a phrase of truly monumental idiocy, and those that use it usually have no idea what it actually means, because it actually means nothing.

    Whenever someone decries “political correctness” you really should substitute this for “not wanting to treat others with respect”.

  27. PeeBee @ #462 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    Ciobo is a liberal therefore there is no such thing as environmental damage.

    Actually, there’s some interesting Australian research I found recently (while looking for something else) that indicates that climate denial and insensitivity to environmental damage in general is clearly associated with a ‘literalist’ interpretation of Christianity – perhaps as significant an effect as political conservatism.

    From https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4527763/

    Christian literalists are likely to have a high belief in both human ingenuity to overcome environmental problems and in human rule over nature, and a low belief in earth limits. This set of beliefs is consistent with and may sustain a weak belief in (or even denial of) climate change as a problem and, if there is a problem, a strong belief in human capacity to overcome it. In contrast, those in the Atheist/Agnostic/No Religion group have the opposite views across these three dimensions. They tend to have a strong belief that there is a climate change problem and a weak belief in human capacity to overcome it.

    Of course, when you get a bunch of Christian literalists who are also politically conservative – such as we see in the Liberal Party – you have a double whammy! 🙁

  28. ‘“Mansplaining” is when a male explains in great and condescending detail something that a woman already knows.’

    Indeed. Malcolm does it on a regular basis…….

  29. Greensborough Growler @ #477 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:30 pm

    adrian @ #473 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:28 pm

    Anybody who uses the phrase ‘politically correct’ or PC should have their arguments immediately discounted due to the fact that it’s a phrase of truly monumental idiocy, and those that use it usually have no idea what it actually means, because it actually means nothing.

    I apply this rule whenever I see you posting something that includes the words ABC.

    ABC.

  30. adrian @ #485 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:37 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #477 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:30 pm

    adrian @ #473 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:28 pm

    Anybody who uses the phrase ‘politically correct’ or PC should have their arguments immediately discounted due to the fact that it’s a phrase of truly monumental idiocy, and those that use it usually have no idea what it actually means, because it actually means nothing.

    I apply this rule whenever I see you posting something that includes the words ABC.

    ABC.

    Sit up straight and don’t pout.

  31. OK, so there are places where it is dangerous for a person of either gender to venture at certain hours.

    Question: who poses the danger in these situations?

    Do you tremble in fear at night when you realise that a woman is walking behind you? Or even a group of women?

    And that’s the point.

  32. Seriously GG, please get over this ‘blaming of all men in the case of Ms Dixon’ . The blokes on this forum are getting so upset it is sad.
    It is simple men are the perpetrators why cant this be discussed without every poster / man saying it wouldnt have happened if she kept safe.

  33. I think I might be a communist.
    Been gettin’ these free sensations and wanting to grow a beard.
    That’s commie isn’t it?

  34. “It is not just women who have to be responsible for their own safety, it is men too.

    Until utopia arrives there will be some bad people out there who will do bad things given the opportunity.

    To pretend otherwise is just plain stupid.”

    In agreement with bemused on this one. I have a daughter, and this is a real immediate issue for me as a father.

    Yes things should be different, and hopefully they will become so.

    Women (and Men) should be able to walk the streets or parks any time of the day or night without being under threat. This is what our society should aim for as the norm.

    I once got chased by “poofer bashers” seeking to do me harm simply because i was walking past a park in Sydney. Was in town for a conference and didn’t realise that route back to the hotel was a concern.

    It is FACT that currently it cannot assumed they can do so. There are definitely societal issues here that need to be addressed. In the meantime there are immediately relevant personal security issues that people need to be aware of.

    “Do you tremble in fear at night when you realise that a woman is walking behind you? Or even a group of women?

    And that’s the point.”

    Take your point zoom, and yes, mostly its males responsible. But don’t underestimate female group violence. It does happen.

  35. Serious question.

    Is there any truth to rumours that Luke Foley may be replaced. If so, with who?
    More importantly, if there is a reshuffle, or a new leader, who would get the shadow NSW transport portfolio?

  36. And related, who should (as opposed to would) get the shadow NSW transport portfolio.
    In other words is there anyone competent?

  37. SCOUT @ #474 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:30 pm

    Bemused

    Yep i am not a regular poster, usually at work 9_5 but home with my sick daughter,and not good at quoting ( apologies). Regular reader.

    Picking the indicators can / usually occur when young usually overt behaviour etc etc, this is whe services should be in place but funding……. the irony and the hard thing to cope with is lots of perpetrators have often experienced trauma ( similar to what they exhibit) hence my reference to the circle.

    There is a lot of research i am not the ‘expert’ but i am passionate and apologies for offence to others. My passion is about keeping discussion on causes (including men owning up to actions etc) and how to prevent the trauma as the consequences keep going……

    I appreciate your presence here and hope to see you become more regular.
    That is not to say we will always agree. 😉

    I am not in the habit of personally apologising for the actions of others and think such an expectation is unreasonable. I would, however, certainly intervene if I saw a situation with a woman that required it. I have done so verbally a few times.

  38. ‘But don’t underestimate female group violence. It does happen.’

    Oh, sigh. I have documented here that I have been a victim of this, and that the girls concerned went on to rape another girl.

    96% of murders are committed by men. Therefore there is a problem which is clearly gender linked.

    As I’ve said before, this isn’t a men v women thing but an issue around culture, something we are all responsible for.

    But until we get past that first hurdle of acceptance, particularly in a society which is still very patriarchal in structure, we can’t even begin to work towards solutions.

  39. Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #486 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    Serious question.

    Is there any truth to rumours that Luke Foley may be replaced. If so, with who?
    More importantly, if there is a reshuffle, or a new leader, who would get the shadow NSW transport portfolio?

    Not until after the next NSW State election. If he loses. 🙂

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