BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

  1. Are the Liberals that destitute of talent that their best bet was a name?

    She more than most would have an appreciation for what’s required and any self awareness would have told her that she was not up to it at this moment in time.

    🙂

  2. Barney @ 10:33 today:
    It still doesn’t alter the fact that you hear IPA types on TV & radio all the time – not the pollies themselves (who nevertheless reinforce and regurgitate the IPA programme when they are called upon to comment)- so to my mind the ALP still needs a ‘ginger group’ (not the pollies and not the party apparatchiks) to take up the fight in a similar fashion, as well as the ALP party people doing their thing.
    I am not sure that the IPA is a formal part of the LNP or even that they have to be card carrying members of the LNP to be employed by the IPA.

  3. BK@6:03pm
    Ms Downer looks very tired in that photo
    Hopefully she looses so that she can enjoy her IPA job and appearances on ABC news breakfast.
    In one of her appearance after brexit vote she said brexit is good for UK. She explained now UK can have free trade with Australia. I thought “Amazing” like in” Get Smart” show

  4. Congratulations to Maria on her award, and Don.

    Don,
    You and Mara are a credit to your community and the world is a better place for having people like yourselves in it.

    My best wishes
    Puffy.

  5. Boerwar @ #1523 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:10 pm

    Di Natale is planning to make up around $4 trillion dollars to pay for the Pipples Bank Of Greensland and the UBI.

    ROFLMAO.

    After being caught out on your lie about nationalising the banks, you then claimed that it would need 2 trillion dollars of public money to set up a “People’s Bank”. Now that claim has grown to 4 trillion dollars.

    There’s your real “numpty monetary theory”. I’m looking forward to it being eleventy trillion by next week.

    Some people should stick to what they know best. In the case of boerwarmonger, it’s his weaponry fetish.

  6. The Commonwealth Government set up the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in 1911 without trillions of dollars (or the 1911 spending-power equivalent). Whether it should do so now is a question I’m open to. If it damages the banking cartel by forcing its members to behave, so much the better.

  7. Shorten just gave one rude journo a metaphorical sock in the teeth, during his WA presser. “I will answer your colleagues question first.” “I will take that as a comment.” when he would not shut up. I would love to know who the numpty was, IPA stooge no doubt.

  8. If you ever needed an example of how bad IPA operatives are in the real world look no further than WA opposition leader Mike Nahan.

    When he put his hand up for politics after a stint at the IPA he was described as a “policy wonk” and was touted as the man to bring intellectual rigour to WA politics.

    He eventually made his way into the ministry and worked his way through the ranks to become Treasurer in the last years of Barnett.

    Like most of his ilk he found that sniping from the ivory tower as he had done in his IPA days was very different to actually having to make decisions about spending money and how that would affect people’s lives.

    He is only opposition leader because no one else among the remnants of the Barnett government wanted the job and he has a hide like a rhino, still capable of arguing black is white and how none of it was his fault.

    How people from the IPA can be taken seriously in any forum is a mystery to me.

  9. Dan
    I am not going to go through all the numbers again. One set of numbers should do the trick for even you. UBI @ $25,000 per adult @ 20 million adults is half a trillion a year or two trillion over forward estimates. You can tip in 40% of the UBI @ 5 million children and you can subtract the total current social security spend and Di Natale STILL has to find an additional $1 trillion dollar.

    The $2 trillion in personal debt that he is promising to pick up by way of successful competition with the existing banks has to come from somewhere.

    He has not bothered costing his policies. He has not bothered identifying any offsets. He has not bothered to identifying the funding.

    In other words Di Natale is a populist charlatan.

  10. I see that Berejiklian is rewarding farmers for failing to take global warming into account in their farm management plans.

    She has also approved the culling of more kangaroos. But not the sacred feral horses.

  11. I can’t believe the IPA has not for profit tax free status or whatever.

    Also, why are the always referred to as a “progressive think tank”? I would think right wing lobby group would be more appropriate.

    Anything that produced the likes of James Paterson, Tim Wilson….

  12. Shorten just said FPM Julia Gillard should have a place at the National Child Abuse Apology day,

    Well said, Bill. Over to you Malcolm.

  13. We have some worrying things going on in the City of Sydney, that seem to be mostly aimed at cutting services to the poor and disadvantaged, particularly in the Redfern-Waterloo area. This area has a large percentage of Dept. Housing dwellings. In 2003 when I moved to Waterloo, 70% of the population of the suburb were pensioners.

    We are about 3 km from the CBD, so the developers have taken a big interest. So far they have been demolishing old warehouses to build the Green Square development, which provides nice (extremely small and expensive) apartments for Hospital, University and CBD workers. These new parts of the suburb have so far brought increased services for us all, and brought us way up in the income rankings!

    However, now, the poorer residents are finding that their services and facilities are being shifted to the new wealthy areas.

    Waterloo library is closing, after a sudden announcement, to be moved to the heart of the new development:
    http://www.southsydneyherald.com.au/action-group-wont-be-shushed/#.WyDeSal9hR0

    And my mother, who has just moved here from the Blue Mountains, was told today that all of the City of Sydney’s aged people’s activity centres will stop serving lunch in 2 weeks due to budget cuts. The lunches were not free, but were probably subsidised. People were given the number for meals on wheels, and told to contact them.

    The problem is not lack of lunches, it is the destruction of the social gathering for people with mobility problems, who are now well into their 90s in many cases.

    I am trying to find out more, but I do know that the City of Sydney is a wealthy council, so these cuts to services targeted to the less well off is worrying.

  14. ‘Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 7:06 pm

    The Commonwealth Government set up the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in 1911 without trillions of dollars (or the 1911 spending-power equivalent). Whether it should do so now is a question I’m open to. If it damages the banking cartel by forcing its members to behave, so much the better.’

    The current personal debt in Australia is close to the highest in the world per capita. It comes to $2 trillion. The problem here is that Di Natale has promised that he will set up a Greensland Pipples Bank to compete successfully with the private banks for that $2 trillion in debt.

    Did he understand what he was committing to? I doubt it. He was doing cheap populist stunts at the time. The Pipple’s Bank just brainfarted out of his mouth during the Banking RC.

  15. Boerwar @ #1610 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 4:15 pm

    I see that Berejiklian is rewarding farmers for failing to take global warming into account in their farm management plans.

    She has also approved the culling of more kangaroos. But not the sacred feral horses.

    The horses will go when they allow highland grazing again.

    You can’t have them eating all the pasture! 🙁

  16. I forgot to mention that I’ve been polled twice this week on my mobile, both for Federal voting intention.

    The first time was by an organisation whose name I didn’t recognise and whom I don’t recall. The second time was by Reachtel.

  17. Senior Citizens’ Centres have (largely) been in decline here for a while due to decreasing demand and use. There are some centres which are vibrant, offering a range of services for clients – our one here opens for lunch and opens to everyone, occupying prime real estate in the CBD it provides lunches to some office workers, not just seniors or members. And they trialed a lunchtime delivery service (tacked onto their meals on wheels program) at one point, but it didn’t catch on.

    I can recall several reviews and feasibility studies completed in WA over the last decade into these centres, all of them concluding that their ongoing viability will be an issue.

  18. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1487 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:44 pm

    I see DDT is extra feisty today.

    Now I love a good sledge and don’t mind in the least being on the receiving end so long as I can return fire.

    However, isn’t interesting what a glass jaw DTT has? My sledges of her are ‘cyber bullying’ but hers go further. Much further.

    I was genuinely sorry when I seemed to have hurt her fealings a few weeks ago, but on reflection I think the following advice is apt: “if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen”.

    That and also stopping writing mad woman’s shit. …

    Andrew

    I called you out for being a fly by bully, which you are. If you disagree with me have the courage of your opinions to point out why. What I despise as cowardly bully stuff ie “mad woman” – sexist too, or just casual remarks thrown in when I had not even been participating – like mad as DDT sort comments. Fly by bullying.

    Now in case you are wondering it was GG who started today’s abuse, so each comment should be considered as largely directed at him. If he says I cannot think he can take the heat. Someone else joined in – I have forgotten who- there are so many.

    Now I am not going to be a victim and allow it. Because it is dangerous to society when otherwise intelligent and probably decent people unthinkingly behave in this manner.

    Now I am not in anyway mad although I am passionate about causes and very often think outside the box. People who call me mad are simply demonstrating that they are narrow minded. I have maverick leftwing positions. That is not mad and those who say so are showing ignorance and bias. No I cannot respect their intellect or ability.

    Now Meher Baba comes on here occasionally. I rarely fully agree with him but I can agree he can put together a solid argument well reasoned etc. i can respect him even if I disagree. I expect others to do likewise not childishly say “mad woman”. I have no problems at all in having a sensible well reasoned argument put to me and will either accept in full, or in part or reject, hopefully explaining why.

    Now I am often (almost always) abuse on here for being long winded etc. Hence comments about reading etc.

    I suggest you follow the exchange with GG before calling me out. I will continue to give as good as I get but I will not (I hope) ever start an abusive exchange, but start and I will reply.

  19. DiN is proposing the RBA use its balance sheet to undertake lending for housing. This would mean central banking would be combined with commercial banking, as was the case with the CBA until the creation of the RBA.

    There’s no reason this could not be done, but it would be very unusual. The RBA sets interest rates for the entire system. It would face a real conflict of interest in setting rates not only for its own household customers but also its competitors as well as the Commonwealth.

    Besides, banking clients usually borrow for many different purposes, are also savers at the same time and use the banking system to give effect to all kinds of payments and transactions. None of this is likely to be segregated from lending for housing. Effectively, DiN is proposing the RBA become a retail bank. This is a half-assed idea. A really half-assed idea.

    There is no central bank anywhere that operates as a retail bank.

  20. Confessions @ #1613 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 5:17 pm

    Puffytmd @ #1806 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 5:09 pm

    Shorten about turnbull. “he has spent more time in the USA than WA.”

    The feds and the Libs are on the nose here.

    The Liberals are so on the nose that Darling Range is being talked about as winnable by Labor when, all things being equal, it should be completely unwinnable for Labor.

    Labor are running a massive field campaign in the seat and have called or door-knocked nearly half of the electorate (~30,000) voters. If we lose this one, it won’t be through lack of trying.

  21. Confessions,

    Thanks for your reply. It sounds as though City of Sydney is following other local government authorities in discontinuing this service. At least this gives me some idea why this may be happening.

    When mum was in the Mountains, she went to U3A, Older Women’s Network, and other community things. I assumed she would able to find these down here, but I think there may be a decline in interest in these things everywhere.

    Where I work, we used to have a big second-hand book fair each year, and I knew retired people who were involved. However, they discontinued the book fair about 5 years ago. According to my older retired friends, retirees now are too busy/ travel too much to be involved in volunteer organisations.

    Also, what is clear now, in 2018, is that the bottom has fallen out of the second-hand book market. Glee Books, in Glebe, has closed its second-hand book store 🙁

    The times they are a changing…

  22. Briefly
    Quite so.
    If Di Natale is proposing to restrict the Pipple’s Bank of Greensland to mortgage lending he only has to find, say, $1.4 trillion to add to the $1 trillion he has to find for his UBI.

  23. daretotread. @ #1625 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 7:43 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #1487 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:44 pm

    I see DDT is extra feisty today.

    Now I love a good sledge and don’t mind in the least being on the receiving end so long as I can return fire.

    However, isn’t interesting what a glass jaw DTT has? My sledges of her are ‘cyber bullying’ but hers go further. Much further.

    I was genuinely sorry when I seemed to have hurt her fealings a few weeks ago, but on reflection I think the following advice is apt: “if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen”.

    That and also stopping writing mad woman’s shit. …

    Andrew

    I called you out for being a fly by bully, which you are. If you disagree with me have the courage of your opinions to point out why. What I despise as cowardly bully stuff ie “mad woman” – sexist too, or just casual remarks thrown in when I had not even been participating – like mad as DDT sort comments. Fly by bullying.

    Now in case you are wondering it was GG who started today’s abuse, so each comment should be considered as largely directed at him. If he says I cannot think he can take the heat. Someone else joined in – I have forgotten who- there are so many.

    Now I am not going to be a victim and allow it. Because it is dangerous to society when otherwise intelligent and probably decent people unthinkingly behave in this manner.

    Now I am not in anyway mad although I am passionate about causes and very often think outside the box. People who call me mad are simply demonstrating that they are narrow minded. I have maverick leftwing positions. That is not mad and those who say so are showing ignorance and bias. No I cannot respect their intellect or ability.

    Now Meher Baba comes on here occasionally. I rarely fully agree with him but I can agree he can put together a solid argument well reasoned etc. i can respect him even if I disagree. I expect others to do likewise not childishly say “mad woman”. I have no problems at all in having a sensible well reasoned argument put to me and will either accept in full, or in part or reject, hopefully explaining why.

    Now I am often (almost always) abuse on here for being long winded etc. Hence comments about reading etc.

    I suggest you follow the exchange with GG before calling me out. I will continue to give as good as I get but I will not (I hope) ever start an abusive exchange, but start and I will reply.

    You’re lying but,……

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCJpzpd-8us&feature=youtu.be

  24. Boerwar @ #1609 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 5:14 pm

    Dan
    I am not going to go through all the numbers again. One set of numbers should do the trick for even you. UBI @ $25,000 per adult @ 20 million adults is half a trillion a year or two trillion over forward estimates. You can tip in 40% of the UBI @ 5 million children and you can subtract the total current social security spend and Di Natale STILL has to find an additional $1 trillion dollar.

    No-one was discussing the UBI. Straw man non-sequitur.

    The $2 trillion in personal debt that he is promising to pick up by way of successful competition with the existing banks has to come from somewhere.

    You are the only one claiming that the “people’s Bank” would have to take over every loan in Australia. That would only happen if all the banks were nationalised. They are not going to be. You need to learn the difference between competing with, and taking everything over. They are completely different things. Competely.

    He has not bothered costing his policies. He has not bothered identifying any offsets. He has not bothered to identifying the funding.

    I have no idea whether he’s had any costings done on his proposals or not. Neither do you. Of course that will never stop you making shit up though.

    You sir, are the ying to Rex’s yang. You are the Anti-Rex. Both of you post opinions and expect them to be taken as facts. Both of you post variations on the same thing, day in, day out. At first both of you made me laugh. Then I laughed at you. Both are now just sad.

    In other words Di Natale is a populist charlatan.

    On that we can agree, although you seem to be implying that he’s the only one in politics that could be described that way. Sadly, populism is quite popular (hence it’s name) with the “great unwashed masses”. Populism is the reason why Labor are always the same/same on matters of so called “national security” and stripping of civil liberties with the Libs. It wins votes, or at the least, doesn’t lose too many.

    As for Venezuela, it’s problems are more the result of US imposed sanctions (as has been pointed out to you before), and less the actions of the Venezuelans. You are using Venezuela for the same reasons that all right wingers need a bogeyman to rile up the masses. There’s a word for that. It’s populism.

    Anyway, instead of your rants about things you know nothing about, why not regale us all with how your Informal Party is going to right all the wrongs in the world.

    When does the membership of the Informal Party get to vote on what policies it’s taking to the next election. Have these policies been costed yet? If not, why not?

    If the Informal Party can’t, or won’t do any of these things, aren’t they running the risk of getting even less votes than they did at the 2016 election?

    Rex has managed to convince us that Labor and the Libs are the same/same. You have managed to convince us that the Greens and other “populist” parties are not worthy either.

    We the people demand that the Informal Party releases its manifesto with full costings by the PBO so we can have a viable option to vote for. Put up or…….

  25. Regarding the IPA, here’s an oldie but a ‘goodie’ (badie) from 2014: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/institute-of-public-affairs-calls-for-the-abolition-of-the-minimum-wage-20140406-366ve.html

    The IPA called for the abolition of the minimum wage. I think that we can assume that this is what the “Liberal” party wants to do as soon as it is politically feasible. Because they are so worried about the unemployed, of course.

    Justice Higgins got it right back in 1907: “I cannot think that an employer and a workman contract on an equal footing, or make a ‘fair’ agreement as to wages, when the workman submits to work for a low wage to avoid starvation or pauperism . . . for himself and his family,’’ Justice Higgins wrote.

    I am over neoliberal crap. It is a failed ideology to justify the greed of the wealthy and those who aspire to wealth.

  26. Boerwar @ #1623 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 5:38 pm

    grimace
    I assume that you called for the full return of the baby bonus?

    On a serious note no, there are people far more deserving and in need than my wife and I of such Government payments. That we got it for our first, when we were in a substantially better financial position than now, and we’re doing relatively well now, was a disgrace.

  27. When mum was in the Mountains, she went to U3A, Older Women’s Network, and other community things. I assumed she would able to find these down here, but I think there may be a decline in interest in these things everywhere.

    Where I work, we used to have a big second-hand book fair each year, and I knew retired people who were involved. However, they discontinued the book fair about 5 years ago. According to my older retired friends, retirees now are too busy/ travel too much to be involved in volunteer organisations.

    Seniors groups here are struggling too; an ageing membership, and the next generation of ‘seniors’, ie baby boomers don’t have the same interests – where I live we’re seeing a more active cohort of seniors, who join gyms, volunteer and generally lead more active lifestyles.

    You should read Andre Kallache (sp?) who writes of the longevity revolution. He was SA’s thinker in residence a few years back, and his report at the end of his tenure gives fascinating insights into what life will look like for people my age when we retire. In essence we’re more likely to be dipping in and out of both work, study and play.

  28. I am having a bit of a “woe is me” moment about the whole Sydney local govt area.

    I have been told by those in the know that there is no chance of saving the Powerhouse museum at Darling Harbour, despite the fact that it has an enormous amount of support. The people who are authorised to sign the papers for its destruction will do so, and there is no plausible way of saving it.

    I should go and lie in front of the bulldozers when they come. Maybe Ford Prefect would turn up, and I could be a really, really old version of Trillion. I am academically (if not aesthetically) qualified 🙂

  29. Confessions @ #1631 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 5:52 pm

    grimace:

    That sounds encouraging!

    The Darling Range campaign has drafted in support from all the surrounding Labor-held seats.

    Unfortunately, I’m banned from campaigning by Mrs G at the moment so I can’t provide a direct, on the ground report. It’s my understanding that the Liberal Feds have stayed away from campaigning in the seat.

    I hope to be given a leave pass to hand out HTV’s on the day.

  30. Grimace, I was just polled too (on my mobile). I was going to hang up so missed who they were, but then thought I would answer the questions to the best of my ability: I am a 20 something female who is a strong Liberal supporter who is very concerned about border security.

  31. Dan
    I can understand why you do not want to discuss the trillion that Di Natale has to find for his UBI. It is, after all, an embarrassment.
    In relation to the Pipple’s Bank of Greensland, I am as entitled to make my calculations as anyone else, provided I make my assumptions clear. Which I have done. You may be right if your assumptions are correct.
    But until Di Natale ties it down, if he ever does, and until HE costs and funds it, he will just have to put up with the assessment that his multi-trillion dollar policy brainfarts are nothing more than those of a populist charlatan.

    You are up in arms defending Di Natale’s miasma. I suggest you relax until he puts some meat onto his brainfarts.

  32. D&M
    Why not suggest that the Powerhouse site be turned into a horse paddock for the sacred feral horses of the Kosciusko National Horse Paddock?

  33. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 7:49 pm
    Briefly

    Quite so.
    If Di Natale is proposing to restrict the Pipple’s Bank of Greensland to mortgage lending he only has to find, say, $1.4 trillion to add to the $1 trillion he has to find for his UBI.

    Well….every dollar in housing-related credit is usually supported by about 12 cents in lender equity. The balance sheet will have 1.00 in assets (the loans to housing borrowers) and $1.00 in liabilities, of which 88 cents is borrowing from the market and 12 cents is shareholder equity. It’s a geared trade and for that reason is both profitable and inherently risky.

    Australian banks have substantially increased their capital ratios since the financial crisis. The total capital ratio of the Australian banking system has risen by 3¾ percentage points since the start of 2008, and currently stands at 14¼ per cent (Graph 1). The quality of banks’ capital has also improved. In particular, Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital – the highest quality form of capital – has accounted for most of the rise in total capital since it was introduced as a minimum requirement in 2013. The combined CET1 capital ratio of the major Australian banks appears to have also strengthened relative to international banks more recently, and it is estimated to now be in the top quartile of the global distribution. Overall, Australian banks have a substantial buffer above APRA’s minimum regulatory capital requirements.

    The RBA should not be exposed to the risks embedded in the housing market. But aside from this, it needs to be able to act in the interests of the system as a whole. This is necessary for the health of the order and the protection of the taxpayers who underwrite banking in Australia.

  34. Confessions

    You should read Andre Kallache (sp?) who writes of the longevity revolution. He was SA’s thinker in residence a few years back, and his report at the end of his tenure gives fascinating insights into what life will look like for people my age when we retire. In essence we’re more likely to be dipping in and out of both work, study and play.

    Thanks for the suggestion. I will look out for this.

  35. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 7:55 pm
    briefly @ #1632 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 7:52 pm

    Now, now, now, now, now! dtt, you are not a maverick. You’re not a lefty. You’re a Right-Pop Putino-Trumpist happy clapper.
    The delusion is strong with this one Obi!

    All-consuming…

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