BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

  1. And the idea that FP interactions with a nuclear-armed agitator, including cessation of joint military exercises didn’t require the input or at least cursory consultation with the CJCS is just nutty excuse-making as usual.

  2. Lovey @ #1436 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:01 pm

    DTT

    You have interesting ideas. I am far from convinced the USA is “broke” and would scrimp on, of all things, military expenses.

    Also Saudi Arabia is Sunni not Shia.

    But inexplicably, and counterintuitively, he does seem to have achieved a breakthrough. If the Koreas want to make nice, what is the rationale for USA involvement?

    Thanks for a sensible reply

    The issue of the US being broke is of course highly controversial but it IS is serious debt and should China stop lending there would be serious implications – mostly for interest rates and spreading into a more general economic downturn. Now recent actions by China and Russia are certainly putting the US dollar under pressure and providing some additional places where China canpark its money earned from trade, other than the US$. This is true for quite a few other countries too. any rational US government would be looking at trying to reduce debt levels by any possible ways.

    Cutting the military is one option, However they would NOT want to cut back on manufacturing armaments (needed to support manufacturing) nor even recruitment (unemployment is never good). However cutting back of actual exercises does save money – fuel, wasted ordinance, wear and tear on equipment etc. It might also give a little time for some boats and planes to go in for repair/maintenance. In the case of the Pacific Naval command, training seems to be an essential need – like how to look out the port hole and steer the boat.

    Now as for Saudi being Sunni I was a s surprised as you to find out that while the ruling elite are Sunni, much of the population are in fact Shia. In the oil rich areas the Shia are in a majority – or at least in part. That is why they fear Iran so much – it is the prospect of internal revolution that they fear. Same reason as the current attack on Yemen. The Shia population are currently very repressed. It is estimated that the Shia population is 10-15% but since 30% of the population are imported workers it would seem that for the actual resident population it is about 55% Sunni to 15% Shia.

    So I mis-remembered – Shia are the majority in some regions – but not overall. They are still a large portion of the population

  3. Burgey @ #1446 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 10:17 am

    When Labor wins the next election, they should knee cap the IPA by conducting an inquiry into it, thereby exposing it for the sham it is, then removing its tax exempt status. it will be a great day when they do.

    Any body with tax exempt status should have full and public disclosure of it’s operations and finances!

  4. guytaur

    ‘The Victorian State Conference could not even debate it because the ALP is scared that voters in marginal seats are racist.

    Thats the bottom line on shutting the debate down.’

    No, at the time the STATE Conference was held, it was assumed that the NATIONAL conference would shortly follow.

    It is normal practice in these circumstances for Labor to defer National issues to the National Conference – it would be absurd, for example, to have a State policy on a National issue which contradicted National policy, and create unnecessary problems (for example, if you are a Victorian Labor Senator, would you be guided by the State Conference decision or the National conference one?)

    To avoid silly conflicts like this one, federal issues get shunted off to federal conference to thrash out.

    Of course, that’s too simple a concept for some people to grasp, but there we go.

    What happens, of course, is that people who want to generate publicity for an issue exploit this for their own purposes.

  5. The Commonwealth Bank had many detractors like Observer in its early days, but proved them all wrong. It became a great bank in its own right. Most important, it helped to keep the bastards honest.

    I look forward to the second coming.

  6. daretotread. says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 1:23 pm

    The issue of the US being broke is of course highly controversial

    This is not controversial. The US is not broke. China does not “lend” to the US. Like any other investor it buys securities issued by the US Treasury. It can buy and sell these securities at will. It does so, and in 2015-16-17 sold more than it bought. China buys these securities to balance its accounts. For every unit in assets held in, say, the US, an identical unit in liabilities exists inside China.

    It is more accurate to say that China holds some of its national savings outside its own monetary system. This enables it to balance its own monetary system and its economy. China needs to do this in part because its own currency is not fully convertible. China really needs a large liquid non-yuan market for its national savings. Considering the size of the Chinese economy, it needs a really very large pool in which to place its savings. The US Treasury market is about the only choice now available to it. It’s also buying gold, which is really just another counter-weight to dollars.

    As long as the US is willing to supply reserves to the world economies – that is, remains willing to always accept other currencies in exchange for dollars – and other countries are willing to hold dollars, China will continue to buy dollar-denominated assets. End of story.

  7. Barney in Go Dau @ #1450 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:23 pm

    Burgey @ #1446 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 10:17 am

    When Labor wins the next election, they should knee cap the IPA by conducting an inquiry into it, thereby exposing it for the sham it is, then removing its tax exempt status. it will be a great day when they do.

    Any body with tax exempt status should have full and public disclosure of it’s operations and finances!

    And anyone with PB commentator status should have a full audit of their apostrophe usage by a certified pedant!

  8. It’s quite possible for citizens to swap from any of the existing commercial banks to a co-operative credit union. It is not compulsory for us to bank with the rogues.

  9. Observer @ #1445 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:14 pm

    And a “People’s Bank” is an abject nonsense

    What is it going to do other banks do not?

    Take on more risk using taxpayer money?

    So become lenders of the last resort?

    Been there, done that

    Remember?

    Those Balance Sheets did not have the strength to survive – and they did not

    As I say, an abject nonsense

    “Peoples Bank” has a distinct Soviet ring to it.

    It is a pity the CBA was privatised as in public hands it served to keep the others honest.

    I believe Australia Post has a Banking Licence and is in an ideal position to become a publicly owned bank to fill the role the CBA once did.

  10. adrian @ #1458 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 10:53 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1450 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:23 pm

    Burgey @ #1446 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 10:17 am

    When Labor wins the next election, they should knee cap the IPA by conducting an inquiry into it, thereby exposing it for the sham it is, then removing its tax exempt status. it will be a great day when they do.

    Any body with tax exempt status should have full and public disclosure of it’s operations and finances!

    And anyone with PB commentator status should have a full audit of their apostrophe usage by a certified pedant!

    🙂 Guilty!!!!!

  11. Oh dear… now the Chinese want to buy APA, the company running all our major gas pipelines.

    No foreign company should be allowed to own any strategic assets.

  12. J341983 @ #1445 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:21 pm

    And the idea that FP interactions with a nuclear-armed agitator, including cessation of joint military exercises didn’t require the input or at least cursory consultation with the CJCS is just nutty excuse-making as usual.

    You seem not to understand principles of democratic accountable government. The role of agencies is to provide reliable information or deliver services as directed. It is to be assumed that Mike Pompeo at a minimum was fully briefed on all the relevant data regarding Korean defence and the whole military situation in the region. Thus it is He a CIVILIAN who is consulted, not the military service provider.

    Of course it is an open question as to whether Trump when going into the meeting had any grasp at all of the military situation. This is the more significant issue, but sadly we are not really in a position to know how aware Trump actually was. The standard meme is that he is thick as a brick, never reads anything and lacks understanding. There is plenty of evidence for this but I hesitate to accept it at face value. How much of it is play acting?

    It is of course to be expected/demanded that the various military and intelligence services provide accurate and relevant briefings to Pompeo and the sec of Defence.

  13. Greensborough Growler @ #1458 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:56 pm

    daretotread. @ #1457 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:51 pm

    For those with year 8 reading ability, this is a good article

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/49614.htm

    Too advanced for you then.

    Definitely for you. Can you in fact read? I have never seen any evidence of you reading anything other than the parish news.

    I think Noddy and Big ears is more your reading level. Perhaps Spot the Dog

  14. daretotread. @ #1473 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:11 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1458 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:56 pm

    daretotread. @ #1457 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:51 pm

    For those with year 8 reading ability, this is a good article

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/49614.htm

    Too advanced for you then.

    Definitely for you. Can you in fact read? I have never seen any evidence of you reading anything other than the parish news.

    I think Noddy and Big ears is more your reading level. Perhaps Spot the Dog

    Super lame.

  15. adrian @ #1468 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:08 pm

    bemused @ #1462 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:02 pm

    briefly @ #1459 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:53 pm

    It’s quite possible for citizens to swap from any of the existing commercial banks to a co-operative credit union. It is not compulsory for us to bank with the rogues.

    A significant number of those credit unions have become banks.

    But they don’t behave like banks. Not the big four, anyway.

    Yes, I agree with you. I wasn’t meaning to imply they did suddenly start acting like the Big 4.

  16. daretotread. @ #1473 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:11 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1458 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:56 pm

    daretotread. @ #1457 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:51 pm

    For those with year 8 reading ability, this is a good article

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/49614.htm

    Too advanced for you then.

    Definitely for you. Can you in fact read? I have never seen any evidence of you reading anything other than the parish news.

    I think Noddy and Big ears is more your reading level. Perhaps Spot the Dog

    That would be you!

  17. It would also be good management practice to let agencies, including the military, know what their illustrious leader has decided on their behalf. It would seem to be a stupid oversight to sign a document saying that military exercises were going to be cut without telling the military.
    Sure Donny can decide to withdraw all his troops, but he has to tell them that or they won’t do it. I don’t think the military will act on a tweet.

  18. Hong Kong’s CK Infrastructure Holdings has made a $12.98 billion takeover offer for Australian gas pipeline company APA Group, offering a hefty 33 percent premium to tap into a hot gas market.
    The deal would expand the private Chinese firm’s pipeline and electricity transmission holdings in Australia at a time when soaring gas and power prices have become a big political issue.

    CK Infrastructure, leading a consortium with CK Asset Holdings and Power Assets Holdings, offered $11 cash per stapled security, APA said, well above APA’s last close of $8.27 and its record high of $9.90 hit a year ago.

    “It’s a decent premium. What it basically shows is there is a disconnect between how the private market wants to value these assets and how the stock market values them,” Vertium Asset management chief investment officer Jason Teh said.

    APA said it would evaluate the bid and agreed to open its books for the consortium to review, while leaving the door open to other potential suitors. It told shareholders to take no action.
    “Based on the indicative price of $11.00 cash per stapled security, the APA Board considers that it is in the best interests of APA’s securityholders to engage further with the consortium,” APA said in a statement.

    APA is one of three gas pipeline companies which dominate transportation of gas on Australia’s east coast, where the southeastern states are increasingly dependent on supply from Queensland in the north.

    The deal would be subject to approval from Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board as well as the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, both of which APA said CK Infrastructure has already consulted…

    https://www.acbr.com.au/hong-kong-group-bids-13bn-apa

    Not so much the Government of China as a HK-listed company…..

    My own view is that utility companies should be nationalised.

  19. poroti @ #1464 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:07 pm

    bemused

    I believe Australia Post has a Banking Licence and is in an ideal position to become a publicly owned bank to fill the role the CBA once did.

    That is the path NZ took to bring back a state owned bank. The post office based bank was revived with ‘Kiwibank’.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiwibank

    Article by Adele Ferguson last weekend, in her series about franchising, pointed out that Australia Post suckered a lot of franchisees in by selling this fantasy. People bought in on the fantasy. It is still not a reality. As such, estimated business returns aren’t being met.

  20. Roger Miller @ #1479 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:18 pm

    It would also be good management practice to let agencies, including the military, know what their illustrious leader has decided on their behalf. It would seem to be a stupid oversight to sign a document saying that military exercises were going to be cut without telling the military.
    Sure Donny can decide to withdraw all his troops, but he has to tell them that or they won’t do it. I don’t think the military will act on a tweet.

    Yes, there is a little thing called ‘chain of command’ which will inhibit them.

  21. ajm says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 2:21 pm
    briefly @ #1480 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:19 pm

    I’ve said it before. I’ll say it again. dtt posts a lot of rubbish. Stunning effort.

    I just finally got to the breaking point and blocked her. Not even worth the time it takes to scroll past.

    I’m on auto-screen. They remind me of commercial am-band radio…loud and empty at the same time.

  22. So has Malcolm Turnbull thanked Julia Gillard for having the courage to defy the Churches and the Catholic Warriors in the Coalition and the Murdoch media and establish the Royal Commission into Institutional Child Sexual Abuse?

  23. Many countries have or had something like a “Post Office Savings Bank”. Trouble here is, Australia Post is probably first cab off the rank for privatisation should the Coalition win the upcoming Federal election.

  24. DTT does a lot of reading from dinky conspiracy sites and gathers information that is sometimes interesting. However, she always starts with a conclusion and then only accepts data that fits her pre-determined conclusions. So her ability to interpret and make logical conclusions based on the data is impaired. You always knows she’s data fitting when she talks about her gut and the like.

    Basically, she’s a catastrophist unable to countenance alternative points of views in her mission to save the world. She also assumes only she has the special insight to know the truth.. She becomes threatening and abusive whenever her opinions are questioned.

    As a practicing Christian I have seen a lot of such zealots in my time.

    I also reckon (gut feel) that she has mental health issues.

    However, her chiding of my Year 10 education is beyond the pale. Year 10 was the best 5 years of my life.

  25. I see DDT is extra feisty today.

    Now I love a good sledge and don’t mind in the least being on the receiving end so long as I can return fire.

    However, isn’t itinteresting to see what a glass jaw DTT has? My sledges of her are ‘cyber bullying’ but hers go further. Much further.

    I was genuinely sorry when I seemed to have hurt her fealings a few weeks ago, but on reflection I think the following advice is apt: “if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen”.

    That and also stopping writing mad woman’s shit. …

  26. C@tmomma @ #1486 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:30 pm

    So has Malcolm Turnbull thanked Julia Gillard for having the courage to defy the Churches and the Catholic Warriors in the Coalition and the Murdoch media and establish the Royal Commission into Institutional Child Sexual Abuse?

    Or as pontificating paul kelly said back in 2012 –

    “Commission on child sex abuse a depressing example of populist politics

    PAUL KELLY, EDITOR-AT-LARGE TheAustralian12:00AM November 17, 2012

    THE dismal, populist and doomed quality of Australian governance has been on display this week with Julia Gillard announcing an in-principle royal commission into child sexual abuse, a panicked Tony Abbott falling into line and an ignorant media offering cheer upon cheer.

    Rarely has an Australian goverment embarked on such a sensitive and vast project in profound ignorance of what it was doing, with virtually no serious policy consideration and driven entirely by politics.

    This is the way Australia now works. The quest is for popular approval, moral legitimacy and gesture politics. Labor took this decision flying completely blind. Gillard’s media conference last Monday was a serial exercise in populist politics and policy ignorance. She knew next to nothing about the royal commission she was announcing. What counted was framing herself as the arch opponent of this “incredibly evil thing” determined to expose those who have “averted their eyes” and allow victims to “tell their story”.

    Gillard’s decision is classic shoot now and pass the mess to others to sort out, in this case, Attorney-General Nicola Roxon. This decision has plunged Australia into a multi-jurisdictional, multi-institutional, state-church, high-cost shambles where nobody knows how the massive expectations of victims can be satisfied.

    It is, however, a perfect fit into Gillard’s political strategy. For Labor, that’s what counts. The media loved it – the combination of a moral crusade, a cast of victims and coming systemic dismantling of the Catholic Church.”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/commission-on-child-sex-abuse-a-depressing-example-of-populist-politics/news-story/e2b4585db900873efa381bb5f8a94f39

  27. Not only are the ALP offering excessively tight fiscal policy, which renders their entire economic and social program grossly inadequate to the scale of the challenges that we face – they can’t even present a coherent, rights-based argument on national security / freedom of speech, and on asylum-seekers. They meekly cave to the LNP on those topics.

  28. I really can’t see why Australia Post would start a bank that was premised on public contact. A purely electronic bank would make sense, but Australia Post is in no better position to start this than anyone else. The bit of banking that makes the most money is in lending – in asset creation. Do we need more lenders?

    Australia Post has a somewhat battered brand but it’s not a lost cause. There is a lot that can be done in the post-and-parcels/fulfilment space. Instead of starting a bank, it could focus on improving the fulfilment services it offers in e-commerce. It’s currently being smashed by DHL, these days a subsidiary of Deutsche Post. The whole retailing landscape is changing very rapidly. Australia Post could do a lot more to help this transformation by creating services that add value for on-line stores and shoppers, and in helping integrate Australian goods-and-services suppliers with the economies of our neighbours.

    It’s greatest asset is not its chain of stores. It is its ability to distribute physical items. It should take this capability as far as its possible to take it. In recent times, they have chosen to do less of it. That makes no sense to me.

  29. Nicholas @ #1491 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    Not only are the ALP offering excessively tight fiscal policy, which renders their entire economic and social program grossly inadequate to the scale of the challenges that we face – they can’t even present a coherent, rights-based argument on national security / freedom of speech, and on asylum-seekers. They meekly cave to the LNP on those topics.

    Thank you for your preferences.

  30. In no sense is China a “banker” to the United States Government. The USG has not done any “foreign borrowing”. It has no debts that are denominated in foreign currencies.

    The United States Government has adopted the voluntary accounting practice of matching deficit-spending with debt issuance in USD-denominated bonds. It does not need to do this. The practice of matching deficit-spending with the issuance of bonds is a form of corporate welfare because it provides a guaranteed interest-bearing asset for institutional investors and wealthy people. The USG should stop issuing bonds. And it should simply retire all outstanding Treasury bonds by converting them into reserves (which is a USD asset that does not bear interest).

    When foreigners, including foreign central banks, buy USG bonds, those assets remain within the reserve accounts of the United States central bank. They are not a debt in any meaningful sense of that word. The USG is not financially constrained when it makes payments in USD. It simply uses keystrokes on computers at its central bank to write up the reserve accounts of the institutions that it wants to pay.

    If the USG had large amounts of debt in foreign currencies, that would constitute a financial constraint on the USG because the USG would need to either earn or borrow sufficient amounts of that currency, or sell assets to obtain that currency, in order to have the funds to service the debt. But the USG does not borrow foreign currencies. Instead, what the USG does is unnecessarily issue debt instruments in the currency that it keystrokes into existence. There is an immense difference between those two scenarios.

    The USG issues an unpegged, floating currency, and it enforces tax liabilities in that currency. Consequently, the constraint that it faces is the availability of real goods and services that are for sale in its own currency. That is a real resource constraint. The USG does not face a financial or budget or revenue constraint when it buys things that are for sale in its currency.

  31. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 2:38 pm
    “No foreign company should be allowed to own any strategic assets.”

    Fully agree.

    Where would we start? Media (News Ltd); Mining (BHP, Rio, Glencore, Newcrest); Gas (Chevron, Shell); Telecoms (Optus, Vodaphone); Retail (Aldi); Aviation (Virgin); TV (Channel 10); social media (Google, Facebook); internet systems (Cisco, Amazon); milk products (Fonterra).

    Then again, if we expect to be able to invest in other jurisdictions, how can we also justify excluding others from investing here?

    I think the main distinction should be on whether industries should be in public ownership or not. And if not, then how should anti-competitive conduct be prevented? And then, how can strong, efficient and technically competitive industries be sustained? The aims should be to prevent market failures and to ensure competition at the retail end.

  32. Nicholas says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 2:45 pm

    The less time Labor spend listening to you, N, the more likely they are to win the elections and go on to form a strong and effective Labor government.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *