BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

  1. Nicholas
    “Not only are the ALP offering excessively tight fiscal policy, which renders their entire economic and social program grossly inadequate to the scale of the challenges that we face ”

    Remind me again how many seats the Greens have in the House of Reps. How many more do they need to form government?

  2. Labor has been foolish in retaining him as leader.

    Their main problem is that their economic policies are too austerity-biased to be truly useful, and on rights-based issues such as national security, freedom of speech, asylum-seekers etc they fall meekly into line with the LNP. Even the most charismatic person (and there aren’t any of those within the parliamentary ALP) would struggle to sell policies that suck.

  3. Their main problem is that their economic policies are too austerity-biased to be truly useful, and on rights-based issues such as national security, freedom of speech, asylum-seekers etc they fall meekly into line with the LNP. Even the most charismatic person (and there aren’t any of those within the parliamentary ALP) would struggle to sell policies that suck.

    You reckon charisma is all that’s needed, Bob Hawke in a really nice suit saying all the words you want to hear, LOL

  4. You are in fine fettle today, Greensborough Growler. 🙂

    Did I tell you that one of my sons has become a Roman Catholic?

    You have a lot to answer for! 😉

  5. One would hope FPMJG would be invited on October 22 to attend the national apology to victims of institutional child sexual abuse.

  6. Nicholas @ #1200 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    Labor has been foolish in retaining him as leader.

    Their main problem is that their economics policies are too austerity-biased to be truly useful, and on rights-based issues such as national security, freedom of speech, asylum-seekers etc they fall meekly into line with the LNP. Even the most charismatic person (and there aren’t any of those within the parliamentary ALP) would struggle to sell policies that suck.

    Mark Butler would have a better chance of selling a policy framework that wasn’t as craven and weak as Shortens.

  7. Sorry to interrupt. For anyone still interested, or who might have got stuck in the same loop as I am after an upgrade to Win 10, this is the link I’ve found.

    https://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/forum/apps_windows_10-outlook_mail/mail-account-out-of-date-after-ugrade-to-w10/860d2079-3657-4842-a80e-6e63a0147989

    This did not appear on my upgrade to Win10 until I am trying to move to a new desktop. Curiouser and curiouser.

    There appears to be no answer provided. Does anyone have one?
    (NB My account is still functioning on my mobile, so I don’t want to mess with that. Sync is apparently not able to work back from device to desktop.)

  8. Holy crap that’s a particularly ridiculous idea.

    Why? They aren’t necessary for fiscal policy or for monetary policy. The bonds are currently used to maintain the central bank’s target interest rate (through the central bank’s buying and selling of the bonds in the secondary market), but they aren’t necessary for that purpose. If the central bank wants an official interest rate that is above zero, it can simply pay interest on reserves at whatever level that it chooses. There is absolutely no need for the US Government to issue debt instruments.

    The financial sector likes it because it is a guaranteed interest-bearing asset for them. That isn’t a good enough reason to do it.

    They claim, self-servingly, that bonds are needed as a “benchmark asset” against which other assets can be valued, but if they want such an asset they can create their own. They don’t need a hand-out from the central bank.

  9. C@t – He’d have just ‘moved on’ to his latest anti Labor rant.

    Interesting how often the so called gurus are totally wrong.

    Not that it would bother them.

  10. You reckon charisma is all that’s needed

    No, actually I said the opposite of that. The content of the policies is important to how persuasive the leader can be. If your party’s sole ambition is to be somewhat less bad than the LNP – which is the case with the ALP – then of course the party won’t be highly regarded by many people, no matter how charismatic the leader is.

  11. No, actually I said the opposite of that. The content of the policies is important to how persuasive the leader can be. If your party’s sole ambition is to be somewhat less bad than the LNP – which is the case with the ALP – then of course the party won’t be highly regarded by many people, no matter how charismatic the leader is.

    So Richard Di Natale is a massive fail then.

  12. poroti @ #1466 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:07 pm

    bemused

    I believe Australia Post has a Banking Licence and is in an ideal position to become a publicly owned bank to fill the role the CBA once did.

    That is the path NZ took to bring back a state owned bank. The post office based bank was revived with ‘Kiwibank’.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiwibank

    Lots of possibilities.
    Emubank: We’ll kick the shit out of your savings.
    Echibank: Our spines cover your assets.
    Sharkbank: Truth in advertising. Trust us.
    RedBank: One bite is all it takes.
    Others… Barrabank, Ozbank, Koalabank, ??

    Seriously though. What role did the Commonwealth Bank once fill? Was it just “Keep the bastards honest?”

  13. Either Greens policies suck or the leaders have been duds.

    Or both.

    I tend to the latter view though I am prepared to cut Bob Brown some slack.

  14. Trump, being a typical salesman, will make any number of promises in order to land the deal—most of which he is unlikely to make good on (if his past is anything to go by).

    All these people who have the naive hope that this will herald a new beginning for world peace need to take a reality check and wait until some actual action happens.

  15. lizzie @ #1507 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 3:44 pm

    Sorry to interrupt. For anyone still interested, or who might have got stuck in the same loop as I am after an upgrade to Win 10, this is the link I’ve found.

    https://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/forum/apps_windows_10-outlook_mail/mail-account-out-of-date-after-ugrade-to-w10/860d2079-3657-4842-a80e-6e63a0147989

    This did not appear on my upgrade to Win10 until I am trying to move to a new desktop. Curiouser and curiouser.

    There appears to be no answer provided. Does anyone have one?
    (NB My account is still functioning on my mobile, so I don’t want to mess with that. Sync is apparently not able to work back from device to desktop.)

    Did you follow the directions on teh Telstra website I provided a link to?
    Alternatively, did your follow KJs directions?
    Both of these address your real problem.

  16. ‘If your party’s sole ambition is to be somewhat less bad than the LNP – which is the case with the ALP – then of course the party won’t be highly regarded by many people, no matter how charismatic the leader is.’

    Right. But it’s the opposite way around with the Labor party – it is more highly regarded than its leader.

    Of course, this explains the electoral dominance of the Greens – they obviously have ripper policies…oh, wait.

  17. Cracked myself up laughing at Nicholas’s post earlier saying Shorten/Labor’s policies are too austerity based.

    WTF?

    ALP will be spending a lot more than the Coalition on the electorate — the coalition’s ONLY spending measure is to goive money to the rich and for the 90% it is pure austerity. Less money for social services, less tax cuts for ordinary Australians, cutting welfare in every place possible (and impossible, for that matter).

    Sorry Nicholas, others might have let your nonsense statement go through to the keeper but I certainly won’t!

  18. Late Riser @ #1514 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 3:57 pm

    poroti @ #1466 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 2:07 pm

    bemused

    I believe Australia Post has a Banking Licence and is in an ideal position to become a publicly owned bank to fill the role the CBA once did.

    That is the path NZ took to bring back a state owned bank. The post office based bank was revived with ‘Kiwibank’.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiwibank

    Lots of possibilities.
    Emubank: We’ll kick the shit out of your savings.
    Echibank: Our spines cover your assets.
    Sharkbank: Truth in advertising. Trust us.
    RedBank: One bite is all it takes.
    Others… Barrabank, Ozbank, Koalabank, ??

    Seriously though. What role did the Commonwealth Bank once fill? Was it just “Keep the bastards honest?”

    I think that was more the effect than the purpose.

  19. j

    I don’t think you fully understand Numpty Money Theory aux Nicholas and the Greens.

    Di Natale is planning to make up around $4 trillion dollars to pay for the Pipples Bank Of Greensland and the UBI.

    Anything less is Bad Austerity and Bad Neo-Liberal Economics.

    They want to emulate Venezuela.

  20. ‘If your party’s sole ambition is to be somewhat less bad than the LNP – which is the case with the ALP – then of course the party won’t be highly regarded by many people, no matter how charismatic the leader is.’

    I have found that you can’t argue with these people.
    Much as they think that people supporting the Labor party are the Devil incarnate or even, at best, misinformed, they just don’t wan’t to know what they don’t know. It’s beneath them.

  21. Boerwar @ #1523 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 4:10 pm

    Di Natale is planning to make up around $4 trillion dollars to pay for the Pipples Bank Of Greensland and the UBI.

    While I’m quite dubious about the idea of a public bank (though bring on renationalization of electricity, water, roads, Internet, and similar basic, essential, universal services), I think the idea that there’s some sort of huge cost associated with running one is farcical.

    Just look at the financial reports of any of the big 4 banks. Their quarterly profits routinely top $1 billion. You can slap one with $700m in fines for facilitating money laundering and it doesn’t even blink.

    There’s no apparent basis for believing a public bank would be a drain on public funds. If anything, the public bank could undercut the private banks by 50% across the board and still rake in hundreds of millions in profits each quarter. Which could all be returned to the public purse (and put towards a UBI, or whatever).

  22. Major Republican primary elections today were won by Trumpistas:

    Challenging Virginia’s Democratic Senator Tim Kaine (Clinton’s 2016 running mate) in November will be Cory Stewart, despite that state’s Republican leaders having backed Nick Freitas. Stewart pals around with white supremacy/anti-semitic groups and, of course, is pushing for the return of public Confederate monuments.

    Trumpistas also won nominations in competitive seats for the Senate in North Dakota as well as for the House of Representatives in Nevada and South Carolina (defeating incumbent Mark Sanford, one of the few Republicans in Congress who have been critical of Trump on occasion).

    Frightening to know that soon America’s gerrymandered and corrupted, if not hacked, electoral patchwork is the chronic voting system that will be employed to decide the immediate future of Mueller’s investigation and consequently, by the end of President Pence’s second term, whether our descendants will be battling with the imminent threat of the earth’s GW tipping point.

  23. boomy1 @ #1524 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 1:12 pm

    ‘If your party’s sole ambition is to be somewhat less bad than the LNP – which is the case with the ALP – then of course the party won’t be highly regarded by many people, no matter how charismatic the leader is.’

    I have found that you can’t argue with these people.
    Much as they think that people supporting the Labor party are the Devil incarnate or even, at best, misinformed, they just don’t wan’t to know what they don’t know. It’s beneath them.

    But what they “don’t know” is nearly their entire policy platform!

    It’s largely thought bubbles and theories with little idea how these policies will play out in reality and how they will interact with each other.

    A Society is not a thing that you experiment with in such a way.

    While I can see merit the many of the ideas, change needs to be managed.

    Many good ideas have been murdered because people didn’t understand this! 🙂

  24. There are many policies that Labor will implement that I support and which will make Australia a more prosperous, more equal and a happier place. One thing they have not yet committed to, and which they should, is to significantly improve unemployment benefits. They should also design a system that actually works to generate employment for those who lose their jobs, who are re-entering the workforce after an absence, or who are seeking work for the first time.

    We should see this as

    – the redress of market failure
    – investment in our human potential
    – economic justice for working people

    There is absolutely no justification for saying to the unemployed “You are to blame for your misfortune. The best thing we can do to help you is humiliate, deprive and punish you.” This is the Tory answer to unemployment. It is not good enough and we can change it.

  25. Prof Higgins,
    Sanford was defeated after Trump Tweeted that Mark Sanford was ‘trouble’. Apparently in reference to the fact that Sanford had an adulterous relationship while in office.

    Trump’s hypocrisy is breathtaking.

  26. Nate Cohn has written a piece in the New York Times about the wash-up of the Californian Primaries which were held recently and their implications for the Mid Term American elections in November:

    The results of the California top-two primary elections on Tuesday won’t be final for weeks, but the initial returns offer a useful if rough indicator of the general election.

    Over all, the results were in line with national expectations for November: a competitive, if perhaps Democratic-tilting, race for the House.

    The results were not as good for Democrats as the special congressional elections over the last year. But they’re consistent with recent so-called wave elections, like those in 2006 or 2010.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/06/upshot/california-results-are-consistent-with-a-competitive-house-race.html?em_pos=small&emc=edit_up_20180611&nl=upshot&nl_art=4&nlid=70388838emc%3Dedit_up_20180611&ref=headline&te=1

  27. C@tmomma says: Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 4:35 pm
    Prof Higgins,
    Sanford was defeated after Trump Tweeted that Mark Sanford was ‘trouble’. Apparently in reference to the fact that Sanford had an adulterous relationship while in office.

    Trump’s hypocrisy is breathtaking.

    *******************************************************

    There were reports today that his great mouthpiece lawyer, Lil Ol’ Rudy, has been having a bit on the side – and after all the abuse he has heaped on Stormy Daniels morals

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    Oopsies! Maybe Rudy shouldn’t have cast that first stone?

    Rudy Giuliani’s wife says he’s a cheating liar

    Rudy Giuliani’s wife told The Post on Tuesday that her estranged husband is lying when he says he hasn’t been having an affair — and insisted that the illicit relationship began before they were separated.

    https://pagesix.com/2018/06/12/rudy-giulianis-wife-says-hes-a-cheating-liar/?utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=P6Twitter

  28. Meanwhile you lot talking about who is better leader, tossers that you are.

    More importantly issues:

    http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/2150279/new-twist-scandal-hong-kongs-hk971-billion-sha-tin?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1528768792

    Rail project corruption in Hong Kong cutting corners.

    Zoidlord, have I told you you’re a fucking idiot lately? Because you are, and apparently you could use being reminded.

  29. No matter what Labor propose, no matter who leads them, the Ns of the world will never be reconciled to Labor. They hope only for its destruction, as indeed do their political siblings, the LNP.

  30. C@tmomma,
    True. Amazingly, Sanford had no problem winning this Congressional seat for the past three elections despite some bizaare actions during his affair while the state’s Governor, yet he couldn’t survive after copping these relatively mild Trump insults of “unhelpful”, “MIA” and “better off in Argentina”.

  31. Vote to retain ranked choice (i.e. preferential) voting in Maine passed.

    Michael Shepherd
    @mikeshepherdME
    Just in: @DecisionDeskHQ has called it for Yes on Question 1.

    Ranked-choice voting will survive. Race call at 12:05 a.m. #mepolitics

  32. Bemused

    That only goes up to Windows 8.
    For this link: “change -a- mailbox-password”: File not found.

    Go to the link I provided and you’ll see that there is a problem in Win10.

  33. “What ever happened to the Tea Party?

    Have they just latched onto Trump?”

    I think they have been Trumped into irrelevancy among the RWNutjobbies demographic? Probably biding their time until Trump is gone. Their kind of idiocy can lie dormant for ages…..similar to anthrax.

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