BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

  1. Thanks William.

    Looks like 52 – 48 is locked in atm.

    May it continue so, with Labor improving as time goes on.

    What I can’t work out is why there is no apparent move to replace Malcolm Bligh Turnbull.

    Perhaps the problem is that there is no alternative.

    Karma is a bitch.

  2. Don
    A mover against Turnbull does him a favour. Turnbull has no friends and is stuck with the privilege of leading the coalition to defeat whenever.

  3. don

    Why would Libs move against MT? No doubt they are firm supporters of the preferred PM narrative. Nothing else is important. 😆

  4. Suggestion.
    Given this admission about the complete irrelevance of the preferred prime minister vote in the opinion polls:
    “The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings”
    Isn’t it time to stop putting the preferred prime minister vote into any prominence? Clearly, it only serves the purpose of somehow cheering the Liberals up as they sink in the 2PP and are heading for Opposition. If that’s the objective of the commentariat: To cheer the Libs up, please be honest and say so. Otherwise I suggest this alternative headline: The Liberal policies and Government are so hated by the voters that they are ready to make Shorten PM even if they don’t quite like him personally.

    The Libs had a last chance with the Morrison’s last budget… For a second they were excited with the trend in Newspoll going down for a couple of consecutive results…. until it started to go up again for the ALP after never having gone below 51% for the ALP.

    I guess that their last hope is for at least one win against Labor at the coming by-elections (to cheer the morale up) and definitely reassuring a dynastic takeover in Mayo with the little IPA-Downer. If they fail on all grounds, will they carry on following Turnbull to the slaughterhouse?…

    Stay tuned…..

  5. “Manslaughter laws are ideological and will hinder production?”
    That’s at the root of capitalism: everything (land, people, wildlife) exploited for profit.

    John Setka‏ @CFMEUJohnSetka · 14h14 hours ago

    When the Swanston St wall collapsed killing 3 people,the only representative Grocon sent 2 the scene was their lawyer. They pleaded guilty & fined $83k per life.The ⁦@mbavic⁩ are now opposing manslaughter laws claiming they are ideological & will hamper production.
    #auspol

  6. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Maybe the electorate is trying to say that they would rather Turnbull had joined the Labor Party? He could have been the Real Malcolm. But then, the Labor Party didn’t want him, so we are where we are.

    So I read the long form piece by Jacqueline Maley on Albo last night, with it’s comparison between Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese, and I can’t say for sure but I think I have gotten to the heart of the Albo question. The question being, of course, does he want to challenge Bill Shorten for the Labor leadership?

    The answer, I believe, is no. I believe that, the reason he is so ubiquitous, is not because he is angling for the leadership, though he would doubtless step into the breach if Bill fell under the Bill Bus, but rather that he feels he is broadening the base of Labor’s appeal among all the people he appeals to that Bill doesn’t resonate as well with.

    There were also some telling statistics in Maley’s article that tell their own story:

    Shorten is still favoured among Labor voters – 39 per cent support to Albanese’s 22 per cent, according to Newspoll – however across the electorate, Albanese is the preferred Labor leader among 26 per cent of voters, with Shorten trailing him on 23 per cent.

    So, Labor voters are happy with Shorten, by a pretty decisive margin, so why change horses midstream? You’d just upset them. You don’t want that. Not to mention how it would affect swing voters who would likely only see a return to the instability of the R-G-R years and desert Labor in droves.

    So, no need to worry about Albo then. He’s just out there doing his best for Labor. As he always has. And, as one ‘Labor Lifer’ said,

    “In personal terms that (Albo’s broad popularity) might be frustrating to people, but why wouldn’t he do it? That doesn’t go to the next step, that he is organising numbers.”

    🙂

  7. I don’t know if grimace has updated people yet, but the baby has landed.

    I expect the expose all national interview to follow shortly.

  8. Does this sound familiar?

    “Because the people who did this are not educated,” Elias says. “Because they only see the dollar. These people make $5,000 a day. They made people rich, but they remained uneducated. They have never learned how to love land.

    “They don’t give a shit about the nation, about wild life or the environment – nothing! Now we are going towards desertification.”

    Not Australia, but it could be.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lebanon-mountains-environmental-destruction-quarrying-construction-industry-beirut-why-a8388006.html

  9. lizzie @ #11 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 7:45 am

    Does this sound familiar?

    “Because the people who did this are not educated,” Elias says. “Because they only see the dollar. These people make $5,000 a day. They made people rich, but they remained uneducated. They have never learned how to love land.

    “They don’t give a shit about the nation, about wild life or the environment – nothing! Now we are going towards desertification.”

    Not Australia, but it could be.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lebanon-mountains-environmental-destruction-quarrying-construction-industry-beirut-why-a8388006.html

    Obeid mentality.

  10. Good morning Post-Dawn Patrollers. And I have very slim pickings to offer.

    Now Chris Masters gets on board with Fairfax with yet more on the special forces story. I found the piece difficult to read and pulled out of it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/special-forces-rookie-blooded-by-executing-an-unarmed-man-20180605-p4zjmw.html
    Greg Jericho explains how there’s a new cultural war – and it’s targeting progressive tax rates. It’s a bit frightening actually.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jun/10/theres-a-new-cultural-war-and-its-targeting-progressive-tax-rates
    Katharine Murphy poses the question of whether women are the forgotten people of the Liberal Party.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/09/are-women-the-real-forgotten-people-of-the-liberal-party
    Chris Kenny tells us that Labor is quietly preparing for a spring election, despite Malcolm Turnbull’s continued assurances of a 2019 poll. Sources confirm the Opposition has recently stepped up its internal processes for completing policy documents, finalising candidates, and mapping out its media buys.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/odds-shorten-on-a-turnbull-backflip-to-a-spring-poll-20180608-p4zkcm.html
    More from Kenny as he reports that a sexual misconduct complaint against Barnaby Joyce appears to have stalled, with neither the complainant nor the accused clear on why and a suspicion that politics and jurisdictional limitations may have hampered its resolution.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-complaint-going-nowhere-20180609-p4zkj6.html
    Tony Walker writes that the government wants to rush through its espionage and foreign interference bills, but more time is needed to make sure these make the country safer without jeopardising freedom.
    https://theconversation.com/government-needs-to-slow-down-on-changes-to-spying-and-foreign-interference-laws-98002
    Martin Hirst has been back to the history books. This week he argues that it is the progressive side of politics that has inherited the right of rebellion against the modern Leviathan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/resisting-leviathan-why-im-a-rebel,11585
    The rise of the mega-commuter.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/the-rise-of-the-mega-commuter-20180607-p4zk06.html
    Peter FitzSimons identifies most troubling line of all in the Barnaby Joyce train-wreck interview being his admission that he had held on to the post of deputy prime minister long after his position was clearly untenable, out of “spite”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/most-troubling-line-in-joyce-s-train-wreck-interview-20180608-p4zkfk.html
    As each day brings a new series of punches and counterpunches between President Donald Trump and longtime US partners, the question appears to be moving beyond the realm of the academic.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/in-trump-some-see-the-end-of-the-world-order-20180609-p4zkj9.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Paul Zanetti gets this one right!

    And it’s goodbye Anthony Bourdain.

    There are a few new ones among these.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-june-10-2018-20180609-h116pe.html

  11. The G-7 summit, summed up in one photo

    There were hundreds, if not thousands, of photos taken at the Group of Seven summit in Quebec City this weekend, a two-day gathering of leaders from member states to discuss everything from climate change to international trade policy.

    But one in particular stood out after it was published Saturday and ricocheted around the Internet for its surreal composition.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/06/09/the-g-7-summit-summed-up-in-one-photo/?utm_term=.ecaa6817d594

  12. Zoomster

    I only caught snippets last night

    I assume you HAVE seen a Dr.

    I caught a discussion on kidney stones. When i has them the pain was a biy like labour pains – they came intermittently, not constantly.

  13. Morning all, thanks BK. Looking at that photo I feel for Abgela Merkel. I am not sure which aspect of Trump is more annoying, the arrogance or the dishonesty?

    He complains that other countries must stop using the US as a “piggy bank” while ignoring the tax evasion of its corporations. He demands others spend more on defence while inflaming wars.

    Maybe the photo plays to his base : “I’m defending you against these foreigners”, but the fact is the US badly needs to export stuff to them to create jobs.

  14. Murphy: Morrison and the ute-led recovery.

    “The tax system does not discriminate on gender. You don’t get pink forms and blue forms to fill out your tax return. That’s not how it works,” the treasurer said.

    “They’re one colour, they assess one thing – what you earn – and you pay tax on what you earn. So it’s just a nonsense of an argument. I’m sorry, I reject it and I’m surprised people are giving it this much credibility. I would have thought you would have seen through that.”

    Bizarrely, some of my male journalistic colleagues appeared duly chastened by this manufactured outrage.

    If you were watching on as a woman, however, you might have felt something else. Annoyed might be a polite way of putting it. Excluded might be another feeling.

    First, your story of economic participation didn’t really feature in the treasurer’s telling of what’s happening in the economy – unless you happened to have bought a ute recently.

    Adding to the ute-led recovery was the gratuitous smackdown on pink forms and blue forms. I mean, really? Seriously? How patronising can you get?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/09/are-women-the-real-forgotten-people-of-the-liberal-party

  15. For me the picture highlights Trump’s obstinate character.

    Arms crossed, indicating he is unreceptive to any argument while the defiant stare says, I don’t give a shit!!

  16. This is turning into quite a story – Brexit-Russia -Trump

    Brexit’s secret Putin connection: Nigel Farage’s bankroller met Russian envoy three times then hooked him up with Trump’s team, as MI5 is urged to act

    Explosive new claims of Russian meddling in the Brexit referendum emerged last night as it was revealed that the millionaire who bankrolled the Leave campaign had a series of secret meetings with Vladimir Putin’s UK envoy.

    Arron Banks had three meetings with Russian ambassador Alexander Yakovenko

    The former Ukip donor is also said to have given Russian officials telephone numbers for members of Donald Trump’s presidential transition team

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5825129/Nigel-Farages-bankroller-met-Russian-envoy-three-times-hooked-Trumps-team.html

  17. Barney in Go Dau @ #26 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 6:48 am

    For me the picture highlights Trump’s obstinate character.

    Arms crossed, indicating he is unreceptive to any argument while the defiant stare says, I don’t give a shit!!

    If you had to thought bubble Shinzo Abe surely it would be “She’s wasting her time. The man’s a gargantuan idiot!”

  18. ItzaDream @ #28 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 5:54 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #26 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 8:48 am

    For me the picture highlights Trump’s obstinate character.

    Arms crossed, indicating he is unreceptive to any argument while the defiant stare says, I don’t give a shit!!

    I see a petulant child still at the potty stage.

    What’s the solution?

    I come across this attitude sometimes in the classroom and still struggle to deal with it! 🙂

  19. Confessions @ #30 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 6:03 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #26 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 6:48 am

    For me the picture highlights Trump’s obstinate character.

    Arms crossed, indicating he is unreceptive to any argument while the defiant stare says, I don’t give a shit!!

    If you had to thought bubble Shinzo Abe surely it would be “She’s wasting her time. The man’s a gargantuan idiot!”

    I’m not so sure.

    This seems to be largely a European response and his posture indicates he’s not in the most receptive of moods! 🙂

  20. Barney in Go Dau @ #31 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 9:07 am

    ItzaDream @ #28 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 5:54 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #26 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 8:48 am

    For me the picture highlights Trump’s obstinate character.

    Arms crossed, indicating he is unreceptive to any argument while the defiant stare says, I don’t give a shit!!

    I see a petulant child still at the potty stage.

    What’s the solution?

    I come across this attitude sometimes in the classroom and still struggle to deal with it! 🙂

    Something Christos Tsiolkas wrote about ? 😉

  21. Trump uses these summits to show off to his base that he’s a tough negotiator unwilling to flinch or compromise. The fact that the other members of the G7 are so upset and outraged is apparently a positive PR for him amongst these groups.

    Trump uses belligerance and petulance continuously. It’s just part of his negotiating schtick.

    Trump gives a lot away for free in his negotiations. He’s not across detail and so doesn’t understand, let alone appreciate the subtleties of diplomacy. It looks like he’s decided to blow up the whole Post WW2 system of international trade because it wan’t invented by him.

    At the end of the day, he’s lots of talk with little result. The rest of the G7 just needs to hang tough and he’ll get bored and move on to something else.

  22. GG

    That’s a good theory.

    As elsewhere, the Christians are already a considerable influence in the WA Libs.

    The point of this story is she came with a handful of votes of third place on the ticket allegedly without mentioning her Christian affiliations and then her husband gave the bizarre sermon.

    If you want to represent god, start a god party.

  23. Greensborough Growler @ #41 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 6:32 am

    Rossmcg. @ #35 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 9:16 am

    So you can run as a Lib and represent God?

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/liberal/wa-liberal-senate-candidate-trish-botha-ng-b88861653z

    She’s in an unwinnable position. So, it might just be a ploy to get out helpers on the day with manning booths and passing out HTVs.

    The Libs are apparently struggling for supporters willing to take on these tasks.

    Isn’t there something in history where mercenaries were brought in to deal with a threat and they liked it so much they took over the Country!! 🙂

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