BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

  1. Breifly,

    Yes of course you do.

    Because we stopped training people when we thought we could just plunder other people’s training academies and businesses for their experts. Who the hell is going to do a tech engineering course when the perception is that all those jobs are taken by overseas workers? Get a HECS or TAFE debt for nothing?

  2. I have a friend who needs engineers . …having trouble hiring them….my brother is a bit of a guru….looking for programmers and can’t get em….has to work 2 much as a result

  3. briefly @ #1800 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 11:53 pm

    I have a friend who needs engineers . …having trouble hiring them….my brother is a bit of a guru….looking for programmers and can’t get em….has to work 2 much as a result

    Unless Perth is somehow different to the rest of Australia, there are plenty of unemployed Engineers and Programmers.
    Or are they specifying unrealistic requirements as a pretext for bringing in cheap labour?

  4. Clem Attlee @ #1807 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 11:59 pm

    My brother is in IT. His company love bringing in Indian programmers because they are cheap.

    A very common practice.
    Typically the company will advertise the job here for a graduate and demand 4 years of experience and other impossible requirements.
    Then when they cannot find someone matching such implausible requirements they say they can’t find anyone and bring in a 457 or whatever it is now.
    The perpetrators are criminal garbage.

  5. briefly @ #1777 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 8:27 pm

    446s were abolished

    456 visas were replaced.

    IIRC from Estimates there are now two classes of temporary work visas.

    The first was referred to as 2×2, 2 year work visa with the ability to extend it once for another two years.

    This is what the 457s would now be on, note there is no path to becoming a resident or citizen through this visa.

    The other was the 4×4, 4 year work visa with the ability to extend it once for another four years.

    This is what people coming to Australia under the skilled migration programme would be on and provides a path for the holder to becoming a resident or citizen.

    🙂

  6. I have never supported “cheap foreign labour.” I have campaigned for the abolition of indentured work. I understand this from the viewpoint of the unpaid foreign worker – I’ve worked with them – and the Australian resident who has to compete against them. I have written about indentured work in WA in the 19th century.

    I was…when I was much younger… an organiser of an anti-slavery group.

    But….ffs….I am not accountable to you pair. Not at all. I owe you nothing. And I expect nothing from you.

  7. You are trying to blame me fir something established by John Howard in 1997.

    I’ve always argued against 457s.

    But I still welcome newcomers to this country. I luv em. …free and equal

  8. briefly @ #1810 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 9:07 pm

    I have never supported “cheap foreign labour.” I have campaigned for the abolition of indentured work. I understand this from the viewpoint of the unpaid foreign worker – I’ve worked with them – and the Australian resident who has to compete against them. I have written about indentured work in WA in the 19th century.

    I was…when I was much younger… an organiser of an anti-slavery group.

    But….ffs….I am not accountable to you pair. Not at all. I owe you nothing. And I expect nothing from you.

    I suggest you go back and read your comments because they come across as favouring foreign workers over locals.

    I haven’t seen anyone suggesting that migrants shouldn’t be able to work, the issue at hand are the 2×2 workers who are being brought over with no prospect of becoming a citizen. 🙂

  9. Briefly is simply delusional on this topic. Whatever the formal position is, the people brought in on such visas are underpaid and often expected to work 10 hour days, 6 or 7 days a week. I have worked alongside them.

  10. bemused @ #1815 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 9:23 pm

    Briefly is simply delusional on this topic. Whatever the formal position is, the people brought in on such visas are underpaid and often expected to work 10 hour days, 6 or 7 days a week. I have worked alongside them.

    And there’s no argument because that is at least what they would expect to do back home!

  11. Bemused…in my family history, going back to the 1850s, a lot has happened…dispossession and exile, child-stealing, violence, expulsion, banishment, poverty, destitution, illness, betrayal, homelessness, humiliation….all kinds of things. And what there was too was a kind of implacable determination not to submit…not to give in to damnation and despair.

    I encounter this as belief in others…in the incredible strength to be drawn from finding ourselves in one another.

    This has put me back on my feet. It helps me stand up, though my limbs are aging now.

    It eases the poverty of my material life.

    I am open to my brothers and sisters who come here with hope in their hearts. I fall for them and I think they warm to me. Human warmth radiates through, even on a cold day.

    You can fault me if you like. I don’t give a fuck about that. I know what has gone before and where strength can be found.

  12. You guys are also functionally illiterate. I have said 20 times I’m opposed to 457s….to indentured work..

    This has yet to sink in.

  13. briefly @ #1818 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 9:34 pm

    You guys are also functionally illiterate. I have said 20 times I’m opposed to 457s….to indentured work..

    This has yet to sink in.

    So what’s your point?

    You posted this.

    briefly (AnonBlock)
    Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 8:53 pm
    Comment #1800
    I have a friend who needs engineers . …having trouble hiring them….my brother is a bit of a guru….looking for programmers and can’t get em….has to work 2 much as a result

    It sounds like they want to employ them from o/s on a 2×2 visa. 🙂

  14. Barney…you’re construing something that’s not written or intended. The point is that even if there are foreign engineers here, my friends STILL looking for 5. My brother is still short of programmers.

    My further argument is that foreign workers add to the productive capacity of the economy. They make it bigger.

  15. Perth is a living illustration of this.. it is s prosperous place because we have brought in so many newcomers from all corners for so long.

  16. briefly @ #1820 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 9:43 pm

    Barney…you’re construing something that’s not written or intended. The point is that even if there are foreign engineers here, my friends STILL looking for 5. My brother is still short of programmers.

    My further argument is that foreign workers add to the productive capacity of the economy. They make it bigger.

    The question is what visa are these workers on.

    If they’re on a 2×2 visa then they should be replaced by Australian workers or migrant workers who can become citizens.

  17. My further argument is that foreign workers add to the productive capacity of the economy.

    Worth considering if domestic labour wastage has been cut to negligible levels. But there is currently a vast amount of waste of people’s abilities. How about targeting full employment with price stability and sustainable resource use? Oh right, ideological objections. Need to mindlessly pursue the nonsensical target of “shrinking the fiscal deficit” and “moving to surplus” instead of focusing on real resource availability and quality of society and quality of natural environment.

  18. briefly says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 10:55 pm
    My nephew is about to become a doctor. He was rejected by every Australian medical school for the most spurious reasons – he stutters at times and “failed” interviews – but was educated in London. He will be a great doctor and he can work anywhere….the world is a better place because he’s been trained and is mobile.

    Congratulations to your nephew!

    My doctor stutters, and it makes not a shred of difference, of course. A great doctor. He was a qualified surgeon in Germany before he migrated here, but had to settle for being a GP in Oz when faced with the many years of hurdles set up by the Australian cartel of surgeons.

  19. Yep prejudice against exploitative employers who look for cheap foreign labour in place of young Australians. The foreigners are victims too. This has been happening since federation.

  20. Clem Attlee @ #1831 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 7:59 am

    Yep prejudice against exploitative employers who look for cheap foreign labour in place of young Australians. The foreigners are victims too. This has been happening since federation.

    If you knew anything about this issue other than mouthing slogans you’d realise that for employers who do not illegally rort the system (less than 1% according to a recent report) there is nothing ‘cheap’ about hiring anyone on a 457/482 visa, and it’s getting more expensive all the time.

    Most employers would save the time, trouble and expense if they could get an Aussie worker to do the job.

    You really have no friggin’ idea.

    And what briefly said.

  21. We have a major problem with the training system in this country, but cutting back on ‘foreign’ workers, while not fixing our training issues is a solution that only an idiot xenophobe would endorse.

  22. Zoidlord @ #1836 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 10:29 am

    Anyone supporting businesses that higher cheap labour is part of the problem not part of the solution.

    It’s not ‘cheap’ labour. And the word is ‘hire’.

    And if you go out and enjoy a nice Thai meal, chances are you’re supporting a business that employs workers on a temporary visa.

    The situation is far more complex than cheap slogans would suggest.

  23. Yeah Adrian there is a shortage of builders labourers in this country and that is why we are hiring Indians to do the work. And you say I have no clue. Seriously? I have a mate who a bricklayer and his boss hires Indians in this job. They lay him off and keep the Indians on weekends because they are prepared to work for a flat rate. You are the one without a clue. Deluded. Gee the neo liberal force is strong with this one. Why do exploitative capitalist love globalism so much…? Because they can do these things to drive down wages and conditions.

  24. Hey Adrian, how many 457 visa workers do you hire? What a twit! I’m shocked at how detached some people are from the real world. Clearly Adrian does not associate with real working class people, if he did he wouldn’t spout such rubbish!

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