The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.
The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:
“des,
There sure is! But I’d focus on franchising and related forms of sham contracting, because it is such a scam in this country, and has been for more than a decade. ”
I would always have agreed with this but I think there is a broader pattern.
As a young articled clerk (trainee / probationary lawyer) I remember a client coming into my office claiming the local paper had defamed her. My boss’ response was ‘well tell her to put $50k in trust and we’ll get right on that’.
At one point I drafted a letter for company that ASIC commenced investigating (before I knew ASIC was a complete and total joke) and I drafted a response for the directors sweat pouring off me, shocked and very concerned. The director’s unconcerned response “All the money will be gone before ASIC get the stickers onto their case file” I’ll sign off on whatever you’ve written.
I also sat n the office next to the lawyer who lead our Commercial Legal Team’s franchise practice. The franchise legal web / trap is designed well before you as a franchisee get anywhere near it. And it is then protected by money.
So to link these weird events that happened decades apart as I’ve meandered through the edges of commercial legal practice is that our legal system is a system that takes a lot of money to use, but as soon as you are the one with that money and the ability to use it, and I know it isn’t an Australian example but like Trump, it is an awesome weapon to use against almost anyone. You don’t have to be in the right, you will usually win if you have the money and can wield the legal system as a weapon. As we’ve seen with 7 and Amber …
It is a very complex problem and parts of legal system understand this problem but it isn’t something that I expect to change quickly.
It is why business has worked so hard, and to be fair to them, so successfully to discredit regulation and regulatory bodies. If you take away the actual rules that protect people #winning (and don’t get me started on self regulation) and the next best thing is to make sure there is no effective enforcement. All you have then is those that can afford the law using oppressive or scam contracts with the full force of the law behind them.
Enough of a rant, I’ve actually done a 180 in the age of Trump, having being trained and working in or near the Australian legal system I’d always had a very ‘what the hell are they doing in the US with their litigation and class action disease’, but I’ve realised, and I still think they are a very very poor tool, a poor substitute for good regulation and strong enforcement, but in the US class actions are one of the few ways the legal system lets those who are usually its victims seek a small taste of justice.
Victoria @ #415 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:53 am
Which linked statement?
allan moyes @ #422 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:01 am
Every remaining Commonwealth realm gets to become an instant Republic. And the UK public can have a one-time windfall of tons of royal assets. And people generally are then freed to come up with reasons to show deference and respect to someone that are better than merely “because they were born into power/prestige/royalty”. Also the number of $45m weddings would probably decrease markedly.
Overall I think those things will benefit many people. Apart, perhaps, from people working in the wedding industry.
You give me far more credit than I deserve. As a dual U.S./Australian national I know U.S. things and kind of have some vague idea about Australian things, but don’t have a clue when it comes to UK things.
UK politics is as incomprehensible to me as cricket. 🙂
From the Arty Farty section – but there are many relevances to recent discourses, from a feminist in the truest sense, the amazing Jane Campion :
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/may/20/jane-campion-unconventional-film-maker-macho-force
DTT
What a load of crap. The elections have shown the opposite.
Confirming the polling trend we have seen.
The only question is it a tsunami big enough to overcome the Gerrymander. Remembering that Pennsylvania has been redrawn by the Courts so that advantage to the GOP has gone.
I love the text under that news screen…
🙂
DTT
Also in the Primaries the liberals are winning more than the moderates in the Democrat Party.
You know the Bernie Sanders types. Its the Democrats Tea Party time.
daretotread. @ #435 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:24 am
Inscrutable was the direction I was heading.
The next monarch will be male. Most alive today will not know that experience.
WWP,
The franchise legal web / trap is designed well before you as a franchisee get anywhere near it. And it is then protected by money.
This is very true.
Thanks for the rest of your observations.
I advised a friend a few years ago not to by a franchise. He was happy with the advice.
Saw another acquaintance lose a lot of (her Dad’s) cash on two franchises. She was an idiot to start with, and now blames the Qld State Labor Govt for her predicament. Fools and their money, eh.
And back to the volcano for one post only. If s= 1/2 a t squared, then if it takes 3 seconds for the molten rock to fall from it’s highest point the distance it falls would be 5 times 9, or 45m. If it takes 4 seconds it would be 5 times 16, or 80m. My imagination struggles.
ItzaDream @ #412 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:49 am
I’d like to see the MSM become more creative with the use of the word ‘militant’, currently only reserved for terrorists and union ‘bosses’.
ItzaDream @ #365 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:42 am
Do you have a time line ?
I may need to make arrangements. I am thinking I may have a farewell with all the family while I can still enjoy it. 😵
Sky News tweets
.@sussanley: We are very confident that new processing capacity can be delivered. In eastern states, we’ve already effectively phased out the live sheep trade because its the local processors who demand the offtake of sheep and lamb.
MORE: https://bit.ly/2wVEJ4d #SkyLiveNow https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/998364271187656704/video/1
adrian @ #459 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:44 am
Ever so optimistic, with creative and MSM in the same sentence 😉
guytaur @ #442 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:31 am
Don’t tell Mark Kenny or David Crowe.
Late Riser @ #458 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:43 am
Depends if it is volcano distributed fallout or modelled from the last eruption.
“The democrats have I think made a mistake with the Mueller Inquiry. It has gone on too long, the public are bored and it has shown nothing of significance.”
Hilariously absolutely stone cold wrong and totally dumb. Let me count of some ways:
The democrats have almost ZERO to do with the Mueller Inquiry, it is a DOJ / special counsel inquiry and almost all the staff are republican not democrat. Could be confusing as the republicans involved seem to have a respect for the rule of law we aren’t seeing as a general characteristic of the party.
It has a long list of indictments and a couple of very senior people have plead guilty. It is clearly and transparently something that would have destroyed any other US administration. Just last week (I think) Trump’s disclosure documents were referred to the DoJ for obvious perjury. Again any other President would be all but destroyed by a dishonesty offence the whole world knows actually happened, the crime was committed in public. It is dumber than Trump, unbelievably bucket of hammers dumb to suggest there has been nothing of significance. There is so much of significance that every week crimes, many of them committed out in the open, that would bring down any Presidency are crowded out of the news cycle by even bigger even dumber crimes.
Every actual piece of information suggests that the US public, or at least large parts of it, are more energised than ever. This may or may not create a blue wave in November, time will tell, but all the field tests (ie elections) in this cycle point to a wave still.
There is some issues with the generic ballot softening, listen to Nate Silver and his guys at 538 from time to time if you want to learn to outwit a bucket of hammers. I could speculate about their polling methods and them not picking up the tide that has been washing away republicans in elections but I’ll leave it to Nate, Claire and Micah.
The democrats do have some issues with how to run against the criminal mafia organisation in the whitehouse and need to balance their health, education and equality messages with their anti-gun massacre message and their anti-Trump message. The best suggestion I’ve seen is that they use a pretty general ‘corruption’ message, Trump and the repubs are clearly openly corrupt and there is still a real risk that the ‘drain the swamp’ sentiment that Trump and the Russians rode to an improbable victory is the thing that actually gets Trump. If you want to understand what the dem partisans are thinking and doing give Crooked Media and the Obama bros that run it a listen.
But yeah hilariously dumb post, bad really really bad the WORST.
Emma Alberici tweets
Terrific piece of analysis here by my colleague Ian Verrender: Money & Power: How our media folds under pressure: “Unlike sport or politics, anyone engaged in critical analysis of the finance world runs the risk of being castigated as “anti-business” http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-21/how-our-media-folds-under-pressure-catherine-brenner-amp/9781914?section=business
LU,
There’s a consistent pattern of business owners and investors claiming to be stifled by too much government regulation. Until they lose their shirt, at which point they blame the government for not regulating enough.
If the Queen relinquished the Throne, Charles would become King by default. If for whatever reason he won’t or can’t take the throne, it goes to the next in line (William). No one becomes a republic unless they initiate the required constitutional / Parliamentary process in their realm to become one.
Late Riser @ #458 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 7:43 am
You want mind boggling!
I visited Krakatau and as you walk up it’s side you see boulders more than a metre in diameter resting in impact craters in the ash.
This is more than 800 metres from the the cone.
What’s the force required to throw a boulder like like these sort of distances? 🙂
Greensborough Growler @ #464 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:49 am
We’ll see where they fall. 😉 (I just counted to 5 for one piece of ejecta.)
Telstra tweets
We’re working to fix an issue impacting some mobile services. Sorry for the inconvenience.
While my own view of the British monarchy is coloured by the fact that I think Oliver Cromwell got it about right back then – I understand that the current Queen has no say on who is her successor. The right to the Crown goes by birth, and unless Charles renounces same, he will be king – all other things being equal. I wondered, when the national anthem was played at the wedding, whether the Queens stands. She does. However, she did not sing the words. How any nation on earth can use a national anthem which beseeches God to “save” one person is beyond me. There are some silly words to heaps of national anthems but for the most part they seem to refer to the nation as a whole rather than glorify one person. Still, that’s the British class system for you.
guytaur @ #419 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:37 am
Guytaur
Keep up to date!
I am referring to the generic polling data. in December the Democtats were a heat of the Republicans by a dizzy 13-15%, with talks of Blue wave etc. However in recent months this has dialled back considerably so that in it now just 4%.
Now firstly the Senate has always been a huge task for the Democrats, simply because of the number of Democrats due to retire.
The House is still possible (even probable) but current polling puts the Republicans narrowly ahead but there are 31 undecided.
It is five months to go. Yes the Bernie type Democrats will certainly be a big help, but I have also read that the more loony Republicans have NOT won primaries which will help them hang on.
A week is a long time in politics and 5 months an eternity.
KayJay @ #460 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:47 am
Prognosis on such matters is a minefield, but you’ve got ten years at best. Phil The Greek looked crook didn’t you think?
Speaking of thinking, I have to say I thought of you as I saw what the team of mowers had delivered – such perfectly presented greens through which the newly weds paraded – and thought of that little bit of Windsor nestled there in Newcastle, green and clipped and loved to the last blade.
KayJay @ 10.47am
If the Queen lives as long as her mother you can look at Charles becoming king around 2028 when he will be 80. Give him another 17 years (both parents are now nonagenarians, so it is possible) so perhaps 2045 before William comes to the throne. He will be around 63. Do you want to prepare the cake and bunting now? 🙂 🙂
It brings a lot of the threads together and it is a bit abstract, but I still had my mind rocked by Ana Marie Cox, a crooked media contributor, when she said something like (this is paraphrased from memory, or lack thereof):
We live in a society of extreme winners and losers, where we fetishize who the winners are and are unconcerned with who the losers are. The rich are ‘good’ and can get away anything while the poor deserve whatever they are given.
I know it is not a new thing, going back to criminology more than 20 years ago the whole ‘rich is good’ in America thing leading to low white collar crime enforcement and really low sentences in the really rare occasions it is applied, if you think about Trump, about the legal system not as a this great thing of justice but a thing to be used by the wealthy against those without money, if you look at the moral vacuum in the Republican leadership, Ana Marie’s lens kind of ties it all together in a beautiful way.
That is the world we live in. Now Australia may not be anywhere near as bad as the US, but we are on the same road driving in the same direction.
Barney in Go Dau @ #469 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:55 am
I think you need to guess the time taken for the initial acceleration, then the trajectory angle (45 degrees), and maybe a 1m boulder weighs about 1000kg (density 2500kg/m^3). I might do the calc if I get bored. 🙂
I wondered, when the national anthem was played at the wedding, whether the Queens stands. She does. However, she did not sing the words.
I noticed that. If she sang the words, they would have to go something like “Send me victorious, happy and glorious, long to reign over you, Oh God save me”
DTT
You have been talking up the GOP from the get go. You were saying there will be no Blue Wave from the get go.
Well facts are there is a Blue wave. We don’t know if its going to be a Tsunami.
Why?
Turnout.
What we do know is the Democrats are more energised and the history of greater turnout for the party that is not that of the President in the Mid Terms.
We also know the GOP has been openly talking about losing the House and fighting to keep control of the Senate.
Thats how toxic Trump has been. Reality has spit the GOP vote. They got their Supreme Court pick.
GOP voters that are not radical may just sit at home. That includes Evangelicals who don’t like a sexual predator in the White House.
We just don’t know. So to predict the GOP is winning is to quote fact check overblown.
It ignores all the evidence to the opposite.
“Yes the Bernie type Democrats will certainly be a big help, but I have also read that the more loony Republicans have NOT won primaries which will help them hang on.”
Like Bernie, who isn’t a democrat at all, the Bernie type democrats will be a huge problem for the democrats. You gotta meet voters where they are and take them with you, you can’t setup camp 100 kms away and yell at them to come to you.
Sussan Ley can introduce her Live Sheep Trade Bill to the House and speak to it, however Christopher Pyne can refuse to let it go to a vote.
Bushfire Bill @ #280 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 6:32 pm
With all due respect I think you are wrong BB and below I put forth my theory of why you are wrong about Wayne/Ray/Lee and how he/they/it came to be.
I think Wayne/Ray/Lee is the latest iteration of a cloning/genetic experiment that has been going on in a secret L/NP IPA bunker since the days of their founding father “Pig Iron” Sir Thingumy Menzies. Back in those halcyon days just before pig iron popped his clogs someone with half a brain cell came up with the brilliant idea of swiping a piece of the afore mentioned person so in the future when technology had advanced enough they could once again resurrect the “cough, cough” great man. An operative was dispatched from the bunker to acquire the required piece of pig iron but not being high enough in the hierarchy to gain access to the “cough, cough” great man, used a bit of initiative and broke into Kirrabilli and swiped a pair of soiled jocks from the bathroom floor, figuring there would be some part of him present and how right he was (the brown stain on the inside rear).
The L/NP IPA sat on this priceless artifact until indeed medical science had advanced so that cloning was now possible, even though it still had its flaws. Realising they couldn’t actually reanimate him in full they decided that they
should only distill the qualities that allowed him to remain PM for so long (There are still arguments going on today as to what those qualities actually where) and inject a few modified cells into a willing host hoping the injected cells would eventually take over the host. So they started hunting for volunteers. The first one they found was little Johnny Howard after his abysmal performance during the 80’s and was willing to do anything to gain
the top job. Lo and behold not long after the injection Johnny became more popular and indeed did win the PMship with that rare ability of being able to bullshit the “battlers” of society. But as time passed the implanted cells
began to die off and Johhny’s ability to sway the opinion of the masses began to wane.
Meanwhile the powers that be realising the implant was failing and the outlook terminal looked around for another willing participant and found one in the person of one Anthony Abbott so they rapidly called him in and found that he was willing to do anything upto selling his arse (although even that point is much masturbated…eeeerrrr mass debated within the L/NP IPA) to be PM proceeded to inject the miracle cells hoping that with a term in oppostion as they were facing that the takeover would have time to be completed and another joyous age would be visited on the country and all would be well. So with a pumped up Abbott waiting in the wings they went through a series of temporary leaders until Abbott could be unleashed on the population. Came his orchestrated first step towards their goal of the PMship when elected leader of the oppostion and with the shit fight that was the current Labor governement knew their time would soon come but they just hoped that the implant would have taken hold. There was much disquiet within the ranks as they observed his performance as LOTO and
thoughts were expressed that the implant had failed but the boffins assured the nervous Nellies within the L/NP IPA that he had the grasp of the three word slogan and appealing to the RWNJ’s and that once Abbott won an
election and became PM that all the best qualities of pig iron would come to the fore in all their brilliance.
Their confidence was shattered after the first Abbott/Hockey budget and they realised thay had created some sort of happy clapping, christian, right wing fuckwit and pressing the panic button began looking for an urgent
replacement. Step up one Malcolm Bligh Turnbull as he seemed to have the suave sophistication that would be an ideal host for implantation so Malcy was approached with a plan to perform the implant and give it about two and a bit years to settle down and take control of the host and THEN they would have a reincarnation of their glorious leader. So they bided their time as Malcy made calming and some what sensible noises to the populace and Abbott drifted off into far RWNJ and fuckwit lala land.
Came the day to challenge Abbott but the brains trust decided that the implant had not had quite enough time to assimilate Malcy so they decided to run an empty chair against Abbott (it didn’t do to bad and someone even
suggested maybe they should implant the chair, on reflection it wasn’t a bad idea). So pig iron was given a bit longer to gestate within Malcy.
So the day was decided and Malcy indeed made his challenge and indeed won, as the powers that be had foretold but with a somewhat slim majority. There was much rejoicing in the land and the leaders of the L/NP IPA
where slapping themselves on the back and congratulating each other on the success of the implant when things started going pear shaped.
They realised that Malcy was no pig iron. He stood for nothing, dithered over decisions and when he did make one it was/is usually wrong and they realised their grasp on power was rapidly going to hell in a hand basket.
They’ve started looking for a replacement but the cupboard is empty and worse they realised that even if there was some one suitable that they didn’t have the necessary cells ready for implantation when a host is found so
started on a crash program of getting the implant ready which leads us to Wayne/Ray/Lee.
He is the latest iteration of the experiment that they can’t quite get right but somebody keeps leaving the lid off the petri dish from where he infects the closest human, cat, dog or gerbil and heads straight to the nearest computer to amuse us with his ravings.
Make of this what you will but it’s my theory. Now I’m going to have a bex, a cup of tea and a good lie down then I’ll call my therapist before anyone on here calls the looney bin.
WWP
Due to the resistance the Sanders type Democrats are winning.
The Democrats have gone left after Hillary in policy. The battle is over appearance.
There was a primary where the DCC intervened to back a moderate. There was a backlash against the Washington Elites and the Sanders candidate won.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/may-8-primary-elections-results/
However as you can see from Nate Silver’s report the reality is every different to the way DTT is painting it.
Bernie Sanders is simply the Ralph Nader of 2016 and 2018. A couple of good ideas, a lot of unimplementable ones and a massive ego and headache for the Democratic Party.
Steve777 @ #478 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 11:03 am
Brilliant.
God save my gracious me.
There’s a desperate need to insert goodness into that, and evoke Peter Sellers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nTBNHwar5o
Barney in Go Dau @ #469 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:55 am
I visited the Mayon Volcano and there were boulders the size of a small car at a distance of what looked like a couple of km from the base. Occasionally one lands on a house or other structure.
I only saw what was close to the road I passed along so there could have been even bigger boulders thrown further for all I knew.
It is probably the same around Krakatau.
The city of Legaspi is disturbingly close to Mayon.
Sky News tweets
#BREAKING: The Northern Territory could become the first jurisdiction in Australia to decriminalise marijuana. https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/998370634987069440/photo/1
Woohooo Go Labor.
“Due to the resistance the Sanders type Democrats are winning. ”
I see the resistance and Sanders as two very different things, although of course I understand that Sanders wanders around campaigns, and I assume the ones he endorses are more or less happy to have his support, but I don’t see them as Sanders types unless you know like Sanders they aren’t democrats at all.
I have no problem with progressive type dems, and I have no problem with them if they use Sanders to help fundraise, I’ve even happy for them to contest primaries against other established dems, if they are better and can win, particularly in California etc that is great. I don’t see it as either a vindication for Sanders or some kind of dem tea party.
You’ll need to be more specific in your link to 538, which I’m well aware of, which candidate were you claiming was a sanders type? Or were you just conflating the resistance with Sanders?
I have only three points to make, all of them unconnected:
1. I quite like Charlie. I like his quirkiness and his environmental opinions.
2. The acceleration due to gravity is 9.8m/s. Using the equation s = a*t^2/2, a/2 = 4.0. So just multiply the square of your lava’s fall time by 4.9 to get the height it has fallen from. Example: 3 seconds fall time gives 4.9*9 = 33.1m, and 4 seconds fall time gives 4.9 * 16 = 78.4m. Another point to consider is that one would not like to be under that lava in any circumstances, even if the fall time was 0 seconds!
3. It appears that Emma Alberici’s eyes have been opened.
Thank you.
guytaur @ #441 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:31 am
Let’s not make AGL the heroes in this saga. AGL would happily keep Liddell burning coal if it made economic sense (it doesn’t), and would probably also be willing sell it to another operator to do the same if the right price was offered (it wasn’t). Alinta tried to buy Liddell on the cheap, and naturally got rebuffed.
AGL is not ideologically opposed to coal – they are in fact the owners and operators of one of the largest and most polluting coal-fired power plants in Australia, along with its associated brown coal mine, which they expect to continue operating for decades yet.
WWP
I am sorry I can’t remember from the Podcast which specific primary gained national attention and turned a local race into a proxy race for the Establishment vs Sanders type Democrat
I am sorry I was not clear I am saying Sanders type candidate not a Sanders candidate.
P1
Exactly my point. AGL have become heroes for standing up for factual business as usual decisions.
They are heroes due not to their own actions but the of the extremists in the LNP.
They are heroes for not caving to bullying and standing up for those business norms. They could so easily have just caved and sold.
We are living in extremist times. Normal business can be radical just being normal.
allan moyes @ #385 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:59 am
Fortunately I have a good supply of balloons and fancy bits and pieces.
If the greats should turn up I have the you beaut jigsaw puzzle ready to trot out.
Meanwhile I can long for the days when I could hide in my bedroom until the visitors left.
Ah. Memories ❗ Memories ❗ ♫♫😵♪♪😵𝅂
Out with my handy calculator. Lets see now. Are you old enough to remember shopkeepers licking the indelible pencil. Great days. How I long for the quality to get them back for us.
Where was I – Oh, yes. Calculator. Seventy Nine next month plus (2045-1939) equals x carry the 7.
I’ll be about 106.
I think I will need a new suit and possible a new hat.
Au revoir. Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ
The Financial Review tweets
The long lesson in the #energy market’s evolution is over and with it the Turnbull government’s flirtation with state socialism, writes @OBenPotter #auspol http://bit.ly/2IXongq
The time the boulders take to rise is immaterial when calculating the distance they fall after coming to the apogee of their path.
So is the tragectory angle at which they are falling (unless we are talking about boulders flying about at a large fraction of orbital velocity, which we are not in this case).
Just multiply the square of the time taken from apogee to landing by 4.9 and you have your answer as to how far they fell.
Bushfire Bill @ #489 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 11:16 am
You forgot to factor in air resistance.
There was a texas race where the DNC just stuffed it up, but I don’t know whether the non-DNC candidate was a Sanders fan or not, nor do I know if Sanders went to texas to help the non-DNC preferred candidate get up?
Bert (AnonBlock)
Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 11:06 am
Comment #392
I salute you. 🖖
I look forward to further revelations from the crypt. 💖
P1,
No one is making AGL a hero, but the Govt is sure making them look like the good guys.
AGL is not ideologically opposed to coal – they are in fact the owners and operators of one of the largest and most polluting coal-fired power plants in Australia, along with its associated brown coal mine, which they expect to continue operating for decades yet.
The bloke who made that decision is no longer employed by the company, and neither are most of the senior execs that implemented it.