BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

No change in voting intention, but Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is at its strongest in nearly two years.

The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.

The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

872 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 18
1 2 … 18

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I’ve had a really bad cold for the last couple of days and slept in until 7 this morning. I’m on to the Dawn Patrol now.

  9. Dan Gulberry says:
    Saturday, May 19, 2018 at 9:47 pm
    How can people watch the Royal Wedding knowing that one person a week is being torn to shreds by crocodiles in NE Queensland?
    ———————————————–

    Dan where the hell is NE Qld?

  11. A lesson for Latika. Why write “quire” with quotes to draw attention to it?

    A quire is one twentieth of a ream of paper, consisting of twenty-four or twenty-five sheets. Quire may also refer to a unit of paper used in medieval manuscripts, consisting of four large sheets of paper folded together in order to form eight leaves, which renders sixteen pages.

    A choir is a group of singers that practices and performs together, especially in a church. Choir may also refer to the area in a church in which such a group of singers stands.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/didn-t-watch-the-royal-wedding-here-s-your-top-five-moments-20180519-p4zgco.html

  12. Is there an argument that the more threatened Malcolm has looked, internally, the better he has rated in popularity. As Bug1 said a while ago it is possible that the Lib vote is very soft. Some voters are not saying they will vote liberal so much as they want a stable government that goes the distance without another change of PM. For the moment they have locked into the status quo. But when the election is called, of course, all bets are off. I’ll be waiting to see if, at that point, the Govt’s popularity takes a dip. We shall see.

  13. “It’s described as the largest feral cat eradication project in the world, that will eventually span 100,000 hectares.”

    It’s one of Australia’s most significant pieces of conservation infrastructure and will eventually restore the vast landscape to what it was 200 years prior, before feral cats and foxes arrived.

    The next phase will see the fence stretch more than 185 kilometres protecting 70,000 hectares of land.

    But for the fence to be successful all the cats must be caught and removed from inside the fenced area.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-17/feral-cat-proof-fence-to-be-built-in-australia/9766830?pfmredir=sm

  14. lizzie

    Thanks for link.

    This bit got up my craw: ‘Far from the innocent domestic variety, …’

    There are around 4 million pet cats in Australia and, between them, they kill over a billion critters a year. We can’t fence nature off from them. It is high time that cat enclosures became the compulsory norm.

  16. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    AB11,
    I don’t know if you saw it the other day but I asked whether you might give me the name of the book you mentioned that you are reading at the moment and it’s author. I’d like to buy a copy for my son.
    Thanks

  17. Boerwar

    I missed the “innocent” bit. A few decades ago I was involved in running a survey on the rate that “dear little pussy” kills creatures in the Melbourne region. This was before some Melbourne councils brought in the “shut them up at night” rules.

    The problem is that people simply won’t believe that their pet becomes a killing machine when let out at night.

  18. Lizzie

    Latika Bourke may have been demonstrating her superior knowledge and brought the item to our attention by using “quotes.

    I was very impressed with her piece, in particular

    Harry could be seen swallowing nervously but his face broke into a smile as she reached the altar.

    *******************************************************************

    Illustrated Dictionary of British Churches – Quire Definition

    History and Architecture

    Quire

    An alternative spelling for choir, the place where services are sung. Choirs are commonly in the chancel, at the east end of the church, generally separated from the nave by the chancel arch and possibly a screen.

    Related: Arch Chancel Chancel Arch Choir Nave

    Boston Stump, Lincolnshire

    Boys and girls we will all sing Hymn No 42

    Shall we gather at the river.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u6KCzMc3Lw

  19. Goo morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Greg Jericho exposes the Liberal party as being all care: no policy. Quite a good spit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/20/all-care-no-policy-liberal-party-pretenders-exposed
    And Katharine Murphy looks at the problems emerging in said party in Victoria. It’s a bit frightening really.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/19/a-conservative-putsch-is-fast-turning-into-the-liberals-victorian-problem
    Paula Matthewson writes that Malcolm Turnbull’s Coalition and indeed Bill Shorten’s Labor Party are grappling with a serious existential problem – the community has jumped to the left, while the major parties are stepping to right.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/05/18/major-parties-crisis/
    Since the Turnbull government flagged plans to implement new national security laws last year, talk of Australia’s “hostility” to China and Chinese people has risen.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/is-talk-of-australia-s-anti-china-bias-a-weaponised-narrative-20180503-p4zd4a.html
    Here’s an alternative structure for aged care.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/meet-the-residents-living-in-an-aged-care-micro-town-20180518-p4zg2s.html
    And here’s an example of the use of A in medicine.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/africa/simple-piece-of-technology-saving-lives-20180518-p4zg7l.html
    There’s been a lot of doom and gloom this week about the future of Australia’s once-invincible national telco company Telstra, but experts say the titan’s woes are actually good news for consumers.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/your-budget/2018/05/17/telstra-dramatic-fall-big-winner/
    These struggling café owners expose how rife wages theft is.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/19/as-cafe-owners-we-know-that-wage-theft-is-rife-but-there-is-no-excuse-for-it
    Teacher Nicola Philp doesn’t think much of John Howard’s views on sex education.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/john-howard-on-sex-ed-thanks-but-no-thanks-20180518-p4zg2m.html
    Scott Philips writes that what the banking royal commission is laying bare is that issues of culture and incentives are at the heart of most of the problems in the industry, not a lack of “rules”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/banking/show-me-the-incentive-and-i-will-show-you-the-outcome-20180518-p4zg6g.html
    Jacqui Maley tells us about the woman problem in the Liberal Party.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/they-only-wanted-me-to-pour-tea-enid-lyons-and-the-liberals-women-problem-20180518-p4zg5g.html
    Bill Gates has unloaded on Trump.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/05/18/bill-gates-mocks-donald-trump-hiv/

    Cartoon Corner

    Jon Kudelka’s idea of the wedding.

    More ABC bashing from News Ltd’s Zanetti.

    Australia mourns the sudden death of TV legend Ossie Ostrich.

    Mark Knight at that particular wedding.

    Dermot Brereton brings Sir Les Patterson to China.

    Alan Moir and the wedding.

    David Rowe’s take on the battle of the board room.

    Some good ones here including a ripper from David Pope.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-may-20-2018-20180519-h109xq.html

  21. I wasn’t aware that Ireland has an upcoming referendum to change their Constitutional ban on abortion until I read the article below.

    Interestingly at the end of the article they talk about foreign attempts to influence the referendum on Facebook.

    I wonder what countries these are coming from?

    Ireland’s referendum has attracted interest from groups from around the world seeking to influence the vote. A significant proportion of Facebook posts aimed at influencing voters were shown to have come from pages managed partly or entirely outside Ireland. Even some groups registered with Ireland’s ethics watchdog, the Standards In Public Office Commission, had Facebook pages managed from abroad.

    Facebook said it was blocking all foreign spending on advertising around Ireland’s referendum on abortion in an effort to adhere to the “principles” of the country’s election spending laws.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/20/all-care-no-policy-liberal-party-pretenders-exposed

  25. Good point made by Meredith Burgmann:
    What is ‘Merit’? Who decides what ‘Merit’ is in relation to Liberal Party candidate preselections?

  26. KayJay

    Naughty. You chose the only definition from google which allowed “quire”, and David Ross, the writer-photographer of the book you quoted, is South African. (I thought he must be American).

  27. C@t:

    The people in the Liberal party who decide what merit is are the ones that benefit from a ‘merit-based’ system.

  28. The soporific Gerard is on the couch this morning.

    Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    2h2 hours ago
    On #Insiders at 9am, @barriecassidy interviews @AlboMP + @mpbowers talks pictures with @smithycartoons. On the couch are @SatPaper’s @KarenMMiddleton, @australian’s Gerard Henderson + @smh’s @CroweDM. PLUS a delicious new masterpiece from @rabbitandcoffee. Join us! #auspol

  29. C@tmomma @ #25 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 5:42 am

    Good point made by Meredith Burgmann:
    What is ‘Merit’? Who decides what ‘Merit’ is in relation to Liberal Party candidate preselections?

    Any system based on “merit” would have no voting involved.

    It would have clear guidelines and whoever best met them would be chosen. 🙂

  30. Confessions @ #28 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 5:52 am

    The soporific Gerard is on the couch this morning.

    Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    2h2 hours ago
    On #Insiders at 9am, @barriecassidy interviews @AlboMP + @mpbowers talks pictures with @smithycartoons. On the couch are @SatPaper’s @KarenMMiddleton, @australian’s Gerard Henderson + @smh’s @CroweDM. PLUS a delicious new masterpiece from @rabbitandcoffee. Join us! #auspol

    I suppose they needed someone to gush on about events in the UK!

  31. From the BK files.

    Teacher Nicola Philp doesn’t think much of John Howard’s views on sex education.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/john-howard-on-sex-ed-thanks-but-no-thanks-20180518-p4zg2m.html

    I think Nicola should be grateful that our former Prime Minister Mr. John Howard (Man of Steel) ❊ does not want to be a demonstration model.

    ❊ Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin (18 December 1878 – 5 March 1953) was a Soviet revolutionary … Joseph Stalin … Children, Yakov Dzhugashvili ….. language word for steel (stal), and has been translated as “Man of Steel”.

  33. This might seem obvious to many…but the far right supports all types of ‘men’s groups’ and the whole ‘men are hard done by’ narrative.
    Is the far right actively trying to remove all LNP women from Parliament? Since the party’s swing further and further right, the number of LNP women in Parliament has plummeted, and now they all seem to be being targeted, right up to Kelly O’Dwyer (who is so senior she should be untouchable).
    The party has been cleared of wets, most ethnics and other ‘undesirables’, I suppose women are next.

  34. Boerwar @ #14 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 8:15 am

    There are around 4 million pet cats in Australia and, between them, they kill over a billion critters a year. We can’t fence nature off from them. It is high time that cat enclosures became the compulsory norm.

    Surely they’re just doing their bit to reduce biodiversity? 🙂

  37. lizzie @ #29 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 8:43 am

    KayJay

    Naughty. You chose the only definition from google which allowed “quire”, and David Ross, the writer-photographer of the book you quoted, is South African. (I thought he must be American).

    Sincerely. It was the first one that popped up. (other references refer to obsolete.)
    I posted a few days (possibly foolishly) about some of the journalists being very clever and demonstrating such cleverness in the manner of

    short break Gerard Henderson on Insiders

    resume transmission…

    in the manner of The Da Vinci Code where the author has the protagonist going around in ever decreasing circles and finally,metaphorically, disappearing ……..leaving this reader rendering a self ass kick for being so stupid as the think a Dan Brown book worth reading.

    I wasn’t looking to be argumentative, simply trying to get a clue as to Latika’s pearl.
    ☮

  38. Scott Morrison parroting this word ‘Retirees’ as if Labor’s removal of cash refunds on Dividend Imputation cash refunds on no tax paid applies to EVERYONE’S Nanna.

    It’s a load of disingenuous crap.

  39. Is the far right actively trying to remove all LNP women from Parliament?

    Yes.

    Liberal women have always had a tough job persuading preselectors they can come to Canberra and balance a political life with their home lives – the party has always had trouble attracting what Tony Abbott might (and did, unfortunately) call “women of calibre” – but if the party becomes more dominated by motivated conservative Christian activists, this can only spell trouble.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/19/a-conservative-putsch-is-fast-turning-into-the-liberals-victorian-problem

  40. Torchbearer @ #33 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 6:01 am

    This might seem obvious to many…but the far right supports all types of ‘men’s groups’ and the whole ‘men are hard done by’ narrative.
    Is the far right actively trying to remove all LNP women from Parliament? Since the party’s swing further and further right, the number of LNP women in Parliament has plummeted, and now they all seem to be being targeted, right up to Kelly O’Dwyer (who is so senior she should be untouchable).
    The party has been cleared of wets, most ethnics and other ‘undesirables’, I suppose women are next.

    One name that surprised me in Paula Matthewson’s piece was James Patterson.

    During ME he was a major apologist for the RWFW proposing amendments to the legislation even though he supported ME.

  41. The party has been cleared of wets, most ethnics and other ‘undesirables’, I suppose women are next.

    Except if they are as hardarsked as Michaelia Cash and Julie Bishop.

  42. KayJay

    No fight. I’m feeling a little feisty this morning. (And seeing Gerard pontificating on Insiders is not soothing me!)

  43. KayJay @ #37 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 6:13 am

    …

    in the manner of The Da Vinci Code where the author has the protagonist going around in ever decreasing circles and finally,metaphorically, disappearing ……..leaving this reader rendering a self ass kick for being so stupid as the think a Dan Brown book worth reading.

    …

    Brilliant!!!!

    You win an unlimited supply of gold stars for this eloquent appraisal of the author’s ability. 🙂

  45. C@tmomma @ #44 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 6:21 am

    Albo: The NAIF, The No Actual Infrastructure Fund.

    🙂

    But it’s a beautiful thing they can trumpet at each election and it can be used in WA, NT and Qld.

    By not spending the money it’s there for the the next election and the election after that.

    Sheer budgetary brilliance! 🙂

  46. I appreciate that the NewsPolls deviation, statistically that is, from the other polls , makes it look as if the polls are closer than they have appeared for a long time, but, surely the upcoming by- elections are going to be somewhat better indicators.
    A return to the status quo should reinforce the current TPP view of the polls. I appreciate that anti-Government swings are common in by-elections and if so, the Government will spin it that way. A government victory in Mayo would certainly embolden Turnbull and deflate the Opposition. A Government victory in Longman, even though it is extremely marginal, would also be bad news for the ALP.
    On the other hand, an ALP victory in Longman, especially with a better margin, would support the trend of the polls. That result of course would be spun out by the Government as I suggested in para. 2
    NewsPoll has made much of the PHON vote in Qld in 2016 in pointing to a lift in Coalition support. Is ON standing a candidate in Longman? If so, a poor result for it would undermine NewsPolls rationale or conversly, a good result for ON would strengthen it.
    A strengthened victory for the ALP would also give adjoining MP Dutton some concerns.
    OK, lots of musing on my part, but these by-elections, I believe, are going to have major implications for both Parties, more so than the latest polls.
    What do you think?

  47. Morning all. Thanks BK and hope you are better soon.

    Overnight saw two english events broadcast on our TV, both dull and both featuring the foreign player scoring. I am glad I avoided both. It leaves me to ask – why did Aussie TV go so overboard on covering a wedding? I doubt it was ratings. I think it was just cheap programming time. Hours of timeslots filled with no actors or athletes to pay. Bargain! They have given up even trying to compete with Netflix.

  49. Barney in Go Dau (Block)
    Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 9:19 am
    Comment #46

    KayJay @ #37 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 9:13 am

    One of the very, very favourite daughters told me how much she liked “The DaVinci Code”.
    I guess I can console myself with the thought that .
    Wrong. No consolation.

    Shut up KayJay.
    Yes Brown Bear. ♡♡

  50. As for news and politics I am still dismayed by this story, which was the real news of the week. 50 unarmed protestors shot dead by Israel and Australia and USA are the only two countries to oppose an inquiry.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/19/australia-and-us-oppose-un-move-for-independent-inquiry-into-gaza-violence

    Paul Matthewson is correct – both Labor and Liberal are well to the right of both the Australian electorate and the rest of the world. Time for some democracy.

Comments Page 1 of 18
1 2 … 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *