BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

No change in voting intention, but Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is at its strongest in nearly two years.

The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.

The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

872 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 18
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  1. KayJay @ #49 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 6:38 am

    Barney in Go Dau (Block)
    Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 9:19 am
    Comment #46

    KayJay @ #37 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 9:13 am

    One of the very, very favourite daughters told me how much she liked “The DaVinci Code”.
    I guess I can console myself with the thought that .
    Wrong. No consolation.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Shut up KayJay.
    Yes Brown Bear. ♡♡

    Time is something you can never get back, so it’s best to learn from the experience.

    The best thing about the Da Vinci Code was that it was a very quick read and I had the time to spare! 🙂

  3. Socrates @ #50 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 6:41 am

    As for news and politics I am still dismayed by this story, which was the real news of the week. 50 unarmed protestors shot dead by Israel and Australia and USA are the only two countries to oppose an inquiry.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/19/australia-and-us-oppose-un-move-for-independent-inquiry-into-gaza-violence

    Paul Matthewson is correct – both Labor and Liberal are well to the right of both the Australian electorate and the rest of the world. Time for some democracy.

    I don’t think Australia and the US are against an inquiry, I’m sure the Israeli one will be very thorough.

    It’s the idea of an independent one that worries them! 🙂

  5. Onebobsworth,
    A government victory in Mayo would certainly embolden Turnbull and deflate the Opposition.

    I don’t agree that a Liberal victory in Mayo would deflate the Labor Opposition. They aren’t really expected to win Mayo but simply to give aid and comfort to Rebekha Sharkie so as to target their political enemy, the Liberal Party. Thus, it is neither here nor there to them specifically if the Liberal Party win. Though they desperately want Sharkie to prevent Downer getting through.

  6. In an unprecedented insight into behind-the-scenes campaigning for corporate Australia to promote more women, Mr Corrigan told The Weekend Australian that companies were “following the mood of the moment” to pursue gender equality. “Well there’s nothing wrong with that, except that it means we don’t necessarily have the best person for the job,” Mr Corrigan said.

    Ironically he resigned and was replaced on the board by a woman with more experience than he has. 🙂

    Mr Corrigan resigned from the Qube board three days after Ms Blakey’s letter. He was replaced by Sue Palmer, a former construction and mining executive and director of three public companies. He said the super fund campaign — as well as a refusal by the Qube board to back his preferred strategy of dealing with it — “was not an insignificant reason” for his resignation.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/chris-corrigan-attacks-business-gender-targets/news-story/f2fcb8607a28ebb5abbc5bfcffbcdf39

    The only people seemingly arguing against gender equality on boards or in politics are men!

  7. On Labor running in Mayo.

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    5m5 minutes ago
    There is no virtue, it’s tactical. Labor doesn’t want its votes to bleed to the Liberal instead of Sharkie. So they run but run dead to keep their vote low (so she gets over the top of them) and direct preferences her way. Not sure it will work for them but worth a try I guess…

  9. Interesting Mayo vox pop on SKY – every woman interviewed hoped Sharkie would be re elected, every man said Alexander Downer had been a good bloke, therefore his daughter would be good, too (wtte).

    I’m really not gender-warring here, I just found it interesting!

  10. Gratuitous bit of crap at the end Insiders promoting the latest slogan push by the government…what hope does Labor have with the entire MSM in Malky’s corner.

  11. In a bizarre and disappointing move, the New South Wales government has announced that a proposed cull of wild horses in the Kosciuszko National Park will be scrapped, and any future cull will be outlawed.

    The enormous damage caused by wild horses to the high country is widely documented. It is estimated that around 6,000 wild horses live within the Kosciuszko National Park in NSW. Plans to cull them have been supported by scientists and environmentalists but opposed by people who claim they represent part of the cultural heritage of the mountains. While this is certainly true, they are also massively destructive and a responsible government would be working to reduce their numbers.

    Now the NSW government is moving to rule out any culls in the park.

    https://themountainjournal.wordpress.com/2018/05/20/horse-cull-to-be-banned-horses-to-be-built-in-to-future-planning-for-kosciuszko/

  12. At least Labor run candidates.Albo said in Perth the Liberals got 42% at the last election but are running away in case their result this time is a lot worse.

  14. Sharkie can expect a second-term surge, on top of a swing against her opponent’s party generally. She should be safe anyway, but Labor preferences make it almost certain. Her only problem is that some voters will be searching in vain for NXT on the ballot paper.

  16. zoomster @ #59 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 10:01 am

    Interesting Mayo vox pop on SKY – every woman interviewed hoped Sharkie would be re elected, every man said Alexander Downer had been a good bloke, therefore his daughter would be good, too (wtte).

    I’m really not gender-warring here, I just found it interesting!

    So because Alexander was a “good bloke” they are expecting Georgina to be a “good bloke” too?
    Either that or they have no gender bias. 😐

  18. I don’t know why either. Presumably Labor ran when Sharkie was elected the first time, so I can’t see why she can’t be re-elected.
    ____
    There was a large anti-Briggs backlash and he’s not there this time.

  19. Confessions @ #65 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 10:06 am

    C@tmomma @ #57 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 8:00 am

    Why doesn’t PvO think Labor’s tactics in Mayo will work? I think it makes perfect sense.

    I don’t know why either. Presumably Labor ran when Sharkie was elected the first time, so I can’t see why she can’t be re-elected.

    It is not easy to do well, but not so well that you pull ahead of Sharkie.
    Labor would need to come in 3rd so that the preferences then flowed to Sharkie and it would want to have enough of those preferences distributed her way.

  20. Ante Meridian says:
    Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 10:05 am

    Sharkie can expect a second-term surge, on top of a swing against her opponent’s party generally. She should be safe anyway, but Labor preferences make it almost certain. Her only problem is that some voters will be searching in vain for NXT on the ballot paper.

    She should win quite easily.

  21. BK:

    I don’t necessarily see that being a barrier to her re-election. From all accounts she’s been a solid local member so surely people would be inclined to give her another go rather than ditching her for an unknown who doesn’t even live there?

  22. Confessions
    I think you are underestimating the animus built up towards Briggs here in Mayo.
    I do hope that Bek does get up and see off that vacuous, disingenuous blow-in Downer.

  23. Would it be legal for the ALP to run political advertising in the electorate if it weren’t fielding a candidate? Perhaps they are just planning a deluge of negative ads (they can start with Downer’s professed loyalty to Victoria) and leave Sharkhie to use her more limited resources to promote her own candidacy.

  25. Anyone can run ads during an election as long as they are “authorised” in accordance with the Electoral Act.

  27. Morning all. PvO has gone back to his cynical best, it appears.

    I was intrigued by the #Insiders continued validation of Coalition policy. Crowe has become the ultimate tool for the conservatives – every analyst worth his salt has said the million jobs were a direct result of population increase and would have happened anyway, but Crowe wanted to lord the conservatives over it.

    Am continually struck by the ‘innocent bias’ this kind of analysis (or lack thereof) suggests. Govts of all persuasions want to take credit for good that happens beyond their control, but want to blame their opposing number for the bad beyond (both) their control.

    About time there was some reality … (sigh … it’ll never happen)

  29. jenauthor says:
    Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 10:44 am

    Morning all. PvO has gone back to his cynical best, it appears.

    vO is a Lib. He will construe things to support his worldview.

  31. Briefly – I know PvO is a conservative, but since leaving SKY he’s been somewhat more objective in his critiques of policy

  32. It seems Downer has re-located from Melbourne.

    Days after Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie quit the seat after being caught up in Parliament’s rolling dual citizenship saga, Downer, 38, had relocated from her adopted home town of Melbourne and was out talking to voters on the campaign trail.

    As the looming super Saturday of byelections approaches, she’s living in Normanville on the Fleurieu Peninsula, and has her eyes firmly on the national capital.

    http://www.afr.com/news/georgina-downer-dyed-in-the-wool-tory-from-the-age-of-6-20180517-h10677

  35. Downer strikes me as a more socially adept Pauline Hanson. Why would any so-called conservative cheer on Trump? He’s the total antithesis of conservatism. My guess is that she only cheered on Trump because she couldn’t stand the thought of a liberal woman being elected president.

    She cheered Donald Trump’s 2016 victory and takes pride in having been one of the few Australian commentators to predict Britain’s vote to exit the European Union, an area of research at the IPA, calling the result the most important victory for freedom and democracy since World War II.

  37. I actually agree that Brexit was a triumph of democracy. Not because I like the result, but because of how it was arrived at. Instead of a powerful few telling the plebs what’s good for them, everyone who was affected had an equal vote, and the result was accepted even by those who don’t like it.

    Should be more of it.

  38. Mikeh:

    She is presuming Brexit is good for Australia.

    “I don’t think anyone, even the 52 per cent in the UK who voted to leave, thought it would straightforward and easy and there are lots of different choices about the type of relationship the UK will have with the EU,” she says.

    “For a country like Australia, Brexit is a great opportunity … with a prospective free trade agreement and the prospect of the UK becoming more engaged with our region.”

    http://www.afr.com/news/georgina-downer-dyed-in-the-wool-tory-from-the-age-of-6-20180517-h10677

  40. In reply to two responses to my post-
    Barney,are you being tongue-in-cheek or aren’t these by-elections? Are they elections? Please clarify.
    As for Labor being deflated if Mayo goes to the Government- I stand by that comment. I know Labor itself can’t win Mayo, but if Sharkie is defeated, it will have a huge,negative affect on Labor and a huge lift for the Coalition. That result would have huge implications for all 3 major Parties involved.
    That said, here’s hoping Sharkie wins comfortably.

  41. On Georgina Downer
    “calling the result the most important victory for freedom and democracy since World War II.”

    Oh yes, Russian campaign money and illegally obtained personal details of people’s social media accounts are always on the side of freedom ans democracy 🙁

  44. And, on a related matter, at least the meeja like Albo.
    And they use his nickname….you know, like scomo, who they also like…..

  45. ” They aren’t really expected to win Mayo but simply to give aid and comfort to Rebekha Sharkie so as to target their political enemy, ”

    Somehow, someway, the Fibs will spin this as the ALP plotting to keep women out of parliament.

    Yes Sharkie is a woman but is she a woman of quality…like women Liberal candidates are ?? 🙂

  46. I assume Sharkie won Mayo because of the then NX brand. It was riding high.
    That brand is now in tatters.
    No doubt the contest with Downer will be tight for many reasons – mainly the historical fact that by-elections in marginal seats tend not to be won by Governments.
    But a re-elected Sharkie would surprise.

  49. bemused @ #66 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 10:11 am

    zoomster @ #59 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 10:01 am

    Interesting Mayo vox pop on SKY – every woman interviewed hoped Sharkie would be re elected, every man said Alexander Downer had been a good bloke, therefore his daughter would be good, too (wtte).

    I’m really not gender-warring here, I just found it interesting!

    So because Alexander was a “good bloke” they are expecting Georgina to be a “good bloke” too?
    Either that or they have no gender bias. 😐

    Good Blokes shoot their families too 🙁

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