BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

No change in voting intention, but Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is at its strongest in nearly two years.

The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.

The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

872 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

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  2. I am sorry I missed the Royal Wedding.
    Had I know Rev. Cleophus and the Triple Rock Choir would be involved I would have watched in expectation of Jake and Elwood doing a cameo appearance.

    Insiders was good this morning with poor old Gerard providing just the right amount of comedy relief without having too much of him.

  4. Oh dear… a DV case in Sydney where it appears a 51 yo man has been shot dead by a woman in her 30s.

    I await the explanations as to how it is yet another example of the ‘toxic masculinity’ which afflicts all men.

  12. bemused @ #36 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 12:11 pm

    I am sorry I missed the Royal Wedding.
    Had I know Rev. Cleophus and the Triple Rock Choir would be involved I would have watched in expectation of Jake and Elwood doing a cameo appearance.

    Insiders was good this morning with poor old Gerard providing just the right amount of comedy relief without having too much of him.

    👍👍

  14. BK@10:20am
    But it is still Georgina Downer who is contesting Mayo. Are you implying Ozzie people accept dynastic democracy like they do in Asia?

  15. Downer: “I don’t think anyone, even the 52 per cent in the UK who voted to leave, thought it would straightforward and easy and there are lots of different choices about the type of relationship the UK will have with the EU,” she says.

    “For a country like Australia, Brexit is a great opportunity … with a prospective free trade agreement and the prospect of the UK becoming more engaged with our region.”

    ‘The Compleat Fuckwit’ autobirography by Georgina Downer.

    1. In relation to the UK once again projecting serious power East of Suez, what a bally good idea! Offset China, wot? This is the UK that folded completely to the Chinese in the Hong Kong handover.
    2. Any UK/Aus trade agreement will be subordinate to trade agreements with the EU for the perfectly good reason that it is in the national interest to trade with an economy that is six times bigger than that of the UK.
    3. The ‘lots of choices’ include Scotland breaking away from England, another bout of the Troubles in Ireland, EIRE vetoing any deal that the UK might care to make with the EU, English retirees being told that they will pay for everything in Spain, and 65 billion quid in taxes being lost as the functions of the City are transferred into the EU.
    4. Some of the choices being exercised as we post: capital investment… new plant and equipment… sending UK jobs overseas… incorporating a sovereign risk premium into UK investments… HQ movements out of the UK… See? Georgina is correctomundo. There ARE lots of choices. Democratic choices, too.
    One point here. Downer, despite all the evidence of the past year and a bit, continues to apply the framing of the Brexiteers. It the UK which will exercise more democracy. And not the 27 countries that form the EU. It is the UK which will tell the EU what the deal will be. And not the 27 countries of the EU. It is the UK which will benefit from Brexit. And not the 27 countries of the UK. Here is the rub. Any single democratically-elected government in any one of those 27 countries can scupper any deal. Plenty of democracy right there!

  16. “Labor people will squirm. But, this is very clever.”

    Mildly funny, but the labor partisans going off below is even funnier. If you can’t have a good laugh at yourself and your team in life something is wrong with you.

    But speaking of ignoring the constitution, or if you are the HC making it up as you go along without much thought, I have found Mumbles take on this and his ‘rush it to a bipartisan referendum with the next election and get it ‘fixed’ before the punters wake up’ to be his worst take ever. Sure make a case for change you know analyse the rights and privileges of dual citizenship, form an intelligent view that people sitting in the National Parliament don’t really need to be dedicated solely to that nation, and then change it appropriately, or even make the case that dual citizenship is something people should be allowed to hang onto as long as possible so give the pollies a process that starts when they are elected to divest the other … meh as I said about the worst take I’ve ever seen mumble take.

  17. Talking about dynastic influence and continuity in Australian politics, I understand that Ms Downer has borrowed Daddy’s fishnet stockings for her maiden stump speech entitled, ‘The things that batter.’

  18. Bemused,
    You really are a misogynist buffoon. And, with that attitude, part of our cultural deviancy which endangers women.

    What have you ever done to address the domestic violence rate in our society?Give us a list.

    Or is all you do is put up your hands and say ‘Not me, it is that other men over there.’ A bit like the media blaming that other media.

    And female Bludgers, you do not have to apologise to the men on this blog for bringing up gender issues.

    And anyone who finds it boring can fuck off and use their scroll finger.

  20. Boerwar:

    Apparently Brexit was a special research topic of Downer’s during her time with the IPA and she has been touted as a subject matter expert on the issue.

    She clearly didn’t research widely if she thought Australia’s trade interests were best served by eschewing the EU in favour of an isolated UK.

  21. I’m surprised bemused couldn’t work out the most likely scenario, which is a toxic male scenario, all by himself based on massive amounts of data.

    Presumably he is expecting it to be that tiny fraction of a percentage where the happily married woman goes out and buys a gun, comes home and kills his loving, devoted, perfect husband so she could have her lover/s move in full time, you know rather than what happens 95% of the time, you’d never expect what almost always happens to happen.

    Although I was reading such a case just this morning. Partner came home from another woman’s place, presumably having enjoyed himself, and wife stabs him in the throat and kills him in the midst of an otherwise pleasant conversation. I’m pretty such the LNP would be seeking the death penalty for partners that kill their cheating husbands or things could go really badly for them.

  22. Puffy:

    What have you ever done to address the domestic violence rate in our society?Give us a list.

    What would you like the men on PB to do?

    Set up illegal vigilante groups knocking on people’s doors and beating up the men and women inside?

    The addressing of domestic violence to both men and women is the proper function of the courts and the police, not individual citizens.

    Come to that, what have you ever done about it? Nothing, I sincerely hope. It is not your job.

  24. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 12:39 pm

    Boerwar:

    Apparently Brexit was a special research topic of Downer’s during her time with the IPA and she has been touted as a subject matter expert on the issue.

    She clearly didn’t research widely if she thought Australia’s trade interests were best served by eschewing the EU in favour of an isolated UK.’

    She explicates ideology.

  25. puffytmd @ #118 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 12:34 pm

    Bemused,
    You really are a misogynist buffoon. And, with that attitude, part of our cultural deviancy which endangers women.

    Arrant nonsense.

    What have you ever done to address the domestic violence rate in our society?Give us a list.

    I have only encountered one case and at the insistence of the woman involved, and my wife, I did nothing. That was nearly 40 years ago and in the same situation now, I would report it.

    Or is all you do is put up your hands and say ‘Not me, it is that other men over there.’ A bit like the media blaming that other media.

    Not much I can personally do if I am not encountering it.
    I certainly do support any actions to oppose domestic violence.

    And female Bludgers, you do not have to apologise to the men on this blog for bringing up gender issues.

    Whoever said they did? All in your imagination Puffy.

    And anyone who finds it boring can fuck off and use their scroll finger.

    When it does get boring, I will.

  26. WeWantPaul @ #121 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 12:42 pm

    I’m surprised bemused couldn’t work out the most likely scenario, which is a toxic male scenario, all by himself based on massive amounts of data.

    Presumably he is expecting it to be that tiny fraction of a percentage where the happily married woman goes out and buys a gun, comes home and kills his loving, devoted, perfect husband so she could have her lover/s move in full time, you know rather than what happens 95% of the time, you’d never expect what almost always happens to happen.

    Although I was reading such a case just this morning. Partner came home from another woman’s place, presumably having enjoyed himself, and wife stabs him in the throat and kills him in the midst of an otherwise pleasant conversation. I’m pretty such the LNP would be seeking the death penalty for partners that kill their cheating husbands or things could go really badly for them.

    Likely scenario doesn’t cut it.
    Let’s see what is revealed by the investigation.

  31. For balance. and a prezzie for Bemused. (sarcasm alert)
    Domestic violence by a woman, which ended in murder.
    Katherine Knight, Australia.
    http://casefilepodcast.com/case-12-katherine-knight/

    The DV situation in this case was harder for the man because being a victim of DV is seen as shameful or non existent. I also do not think she had a mental health problem. Some people are perfectly sane but have a personality disorder aka just an evil bastard.

    This is a rare role reversal that follows the more normalised domestic violence pattern that runs through our society. Women do not set most of the norms of our society. At best women convince the ruling elites to change laws and norms to provide better living conditions for their gender. It works sometimes.

  33. @Torchbearer

    The right wing of the Liberal party are people who identify themselves as Christians and Social Conservatives. Therefore; they are fine with ‘ethnic’ people or women so long as they are Christians who hold socially conservative views.

    However the Liberal party turning into the Australian version of The Republicans in America is going to banish them to almost permament opposition.

    Anyway while there has been narrowing between the Coalition and Labor in the poll tracker. It remains to be seen if that can become 50-50 which is enough for the Coalition to go an election.

    Also I believe by-elections in Braddon, Longman and Mayo will give the government some indication wither or not to go an election fairly soon after that.

    My prediction is that Sharkie will retain Mayo and Labor win both Braddom and Longman with modest swings towards it. That will make the government delay the election as long as possible.

  34. puffytmd @ #130 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 1:12 pm

    For balance. and a prezzie for Bemused. (sarcasm alert)
    Domestic violence by a woman, which ended in murder.
    Katherine Knight, Australia.
    http://casefilepodcast.com/case-12-katherine-knight/

    The DV situation in this case was harder for the man because being a victim of DV is seen as shameful or non existent. I also do not think she had a mental health problem. Some people are perfectly sane but have a personality disorder aka just an evil bastard.

    This is a rare role reversal that follows the more normalised domestic violence pattern that runs through our society. Women do not set most of the norms of our society. At best women convince the ruling elites to change laws and norms to provide better living conditions for their gender. It works sometimes.

    You are again showing your ignorance when you say “Some people are perfectly sane but have a personality disorder aka just an evil bastard.”

    They are a mental disorder and unfortunately very difficult to treat. For that reason many shrinks don’t want to treat patients with a ‘personality disorder’.

    Of course like many other things, they vary in severity from being relatively mild through to being quite severe and at that end of the spectrum are a very serious and disabling illness. It is certainly not a case of being “just an evil bastard” or the female equivalent.

  35. Sentences that begin with ‘Men…’ (which means ALL men) are generally statistically incorrect. ‘Some’ or ‘Most’ or ‘Those men who…’ generally work better when we are trying to reach an understanding of what is going wrong and what we need to do. Ditto, sentences that begin with ‘Women…’

    The individuals who seek to blame ascribe, blame shift, blame deny or blame share are, IMO, part of the problem because we all already know that very many women and proportionately fewer men suffer domestic violence. We know that domestic violence inflicts terror, injuries and death.

    In short, we know we have a huge societal problem.

    What this man tries not to do, is to turn discussions about domestic violence into a sort of fruitless blame spraying or equally fruitless verbal game playing. Both these approaches, IMO, waste valuable energy that might better be directed at gaining a better understanding of domestic violence and what each one of us might do about it.

    So, let’s just move on from fruitless discussions.

    Let’s start discussing what we can do as individuals, as family members, as members of genders, as professionals, as Party members and as voters.

    This man takes domestic violence seriously. This is what he does.

    He is part of a support group for the smashed victim of domestic violence. He finds this very confronting indeed.

    He is offering moral support to a niece who is leaving her husband because of domestic abuse.

    He has discussions with his sons about domestic violence and about respect for others and how you show respect in thought, word and deed.

    He has touched base with his brothers on the issue. Same page.

    When discussions occur within groups of men of which he is a part, he inserts views, evidence and examples of the consequences of domestic violence. He does this with some moral courage because some of the men do not want to hear this kind of thing and get angry with him for not being on their side.

    In due course he will have the same discussions with his grandsons.

    In the plain view of his sons and his grandsons he treats his wife (sisters, daughter) with respect. And gets it in return. There are no implied or actual threats of violence. There are no raised fists. There are no blows. There are no attempts at setting up controlling behaviours.

    What might a woman do? I have some ideas, but, for now… over to the women on that one.

  36. 85% of homeless are men
    76% of suicides are men
    70% of murder victims are men
    92% of deaths in the workplace are men
    7% of men get custody after a divorce
    97% of war deaths are men

  37. puffy:

    For balance.

    Balance? Women are far more likely to experience family violence a the hand of a male partner than men are with women partners.

    Trying to give balance to this issue is like the ABC trying to balance the scientific reality of AGW, overwhelmingly accepted by experts as real, with denialist viewpoints.

  38. 85% of homeless are men

    Not where I live. Our local homelessness services all consistently report that women and women with children escaping domestic violence make up the majority of homeless people here.

  39. Political correctness(from the UK)
    What a morning……
    8:00 I made a snowman.
    8:10 A feminist passed by and asked me why I didn’t made a snow woman.
    8:15 I made a snow woman.
    8:17 The nanny of the neighbours complained about the voluptuous chest on the snow woman.
    8:20 The gay couple living across the street complained that it could have been two snowmen instead.
    8:25 The neighbours on the left, who are vegans, complained that the orange nose, a carrot, this needs to be something else because food is for eating and not to decorate a snowman and woman with.
    8:28 I am being called a racist because the snow couple is white.
    8:31 The husband of Fatima wants the snow woman to wear a headscarf.
    8:40 The Police arrives to see what’s going on.
    8.42 I am told that the broomstick of the snowman needs to be removed because this could be being used as a striking weapon.
    8:50 The Salafi jihadist militant group Islamic State made itself known as the snowman.
    8:52 My phone is being seized and thoroughly checked while I being blindfolded and flown to the police station in a helicopter.
    9:00 I am asked if I have any accomplices.
    Done with this!! I will never make a snowman, snow woman or snow whatever again. It’s too dangerous!!

  40. lizzie says:
    Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 10:03 am
    In a bizarre and disappointing move, the New South Wales government has announced that a proposed cull of wild horses in the Kosciuszko National Park will be scrapped, and any future cull will be outlawed.

    The enormous damage caused by wild horses to the high country is widely documented. It is estimated that around 6,000 wild horses live within the Kosciuszko National Park in NSW. Plans to cull them have been supported by scientists and environmentalists but opposed by people who claim they represent part of the cultural heritage of the mountains. While this is certainly true, they are also massively destructive and a responsible government would be working to reduce their numbers.

    Now the NSW government is moving to rule out any culls in the park.
    https://themountainjournal.wordpress.com/2018/05/20/horse-cull-to-be-banned-horses-to-be-built-in-to-future-planning-for-kosciuszko/

    I remember this matter was pushed some time ago by a former member (whose name I forget) for the state seat of Monaro which includes the Kosciuszko National Park. He, like Barilaro currently, was more interested in keeping alive the ‘mountain cattlemen’ legend (of which the brumbies are really just a symbol) than protecting the very sensitive high country.

    I suspect if the NSW Nationals had their way, the ‘mountain cattlemen’ would be allowed into the National Park tomorrow.

  41. Bemused
    You never attended a rally, signed a petition, raised funds for DV services, written to an MP, written a letter the paper, rand talkback, worked on or put forward any ideas to address DV in your political party, sat around a bbq and deplored the DV to other blokes… or anything unless it is shovedright under your nose? Is your middle name PontuisPilate?

    By the way, I was on the Board of Management of a Womens Shelter in the 1990’s that introduced the first Men’s Worker when we created the country’s first Court sponsored Diversion Program to help men who wanted to address their DV attitudes and actions.

    We also ran programs for children who were victim’s of their parent’s domestic violence.

    We also built the first accommodation for women with disabilities who are victims of DV, wheelchair accessible (let that one sink in for a minute) who could not leave their situations.

    Now, an issue I raised in the 1990’s from reports from the USA, pet fostering services are being offered because shelters don’t take pets and women will not leave their pets to take the brunt of the rage and revenge, as they are hurt s a power `play a lot of the time.

    There you go, there is a lot of ways to demonstrate your concern.

    But in case I am too harsh because of your apparent resistance to these ideas, I have this resource for you.

    And anyone else interested.

    Free, Online, Australian, No prerequisites.
    https://www.avertfamilyviolence.com.au/training/basic-course

    And yes, some of the women we were helping were killed. You can call me too emotional, or you can call me experienced.

  42. Good on you Boerwar.

    What does this woman do? She is a member of the local family and domestic violence action group, which uses social media and events throughout the year to raise awareness of domestic violence, and those who are most likely to experience it. She fund-raises for this group as well as advocates for increased services in this region for women who leave abusive households.

    She has provided refuge to a friend who left her violent partner, in doing so opening her and her pets up to retribution and violence from this man had he bothered to come looking for her.

    In her early 20s when she was renting a flat in a not-so-nice area, she called police to a neighbour’s flat when she heard a woman screaming and crying, obviously being beaten by a man. She did this several times (again, exposing herself to potential violent retribution by the neighbour), until the occupants moved out. She would do it again if she ever found herself exposed to similar situation.

  44. OK Puffy, about to go out for a while and practice a bit of misogyny on my granddaughters aged 4 and 8. Taking them for a swim. 😀

    Relax, it’s a heated pool and they just love going and particularly enjoy the wave pool. They are both excited and the little one hasn’t been able to stop talking about it since she learnt we are going.

    They just love this misogynist and the way he treats them. 😛

  46. Boerwar,
    You have my respect. We need many more like you.
    And I always find your comments interesting, even the ones I disagree with.

  47. puffytmd @ #140 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 1:41 pm

    Bemused
    You never attended a rally, signed a petition, raised funds for DV services, written to an MP, written a letter the paper, rand talkback, worked on or put forward any ideas to address DV in your political party, sat around a bbq and deplored the DV to other blokes… or anything unless it is shovedright under your nose? Is your middle name PontuisPilate?

    By the way, I was on the Board of Management of a Womens Shelter in the 1990’s that introduced the first Men’s Worker when we created the country’s first Court sponsored Diversion Program to help men who wanted to address their DV attitudes and actions.

    We also ran programs for children who were victim’s of their parent’s domestic violence.

    We also built the first accommodation for women with disabilities who are victims of DV, wheelchair accessible (let that one sink in for a minute) who could not leave their situations.

    Now, an issue I raised in the 1990’s from reports from the USA, pet fostering services are being offered because shelters don’t take pets and women will not leave their pets to take the brunt of the rage and revenge, as they are hurt s a power `play a lot of the time.

    There you go, there is a lot of ways to demonstrate your concern.

    But in case I am too harsh because of your apparent resistance to these ideas, I have this resource for you.

    And anyone else interested.

    Free, Online, Australian, No prerequisites.
    https://www.avertfamilyviolence.com.au/training/basic-course

    And yes, some of the women we were helping were killed. You can call me too emotional, or you can call me experienced.

    Puffy, there is more than one deserving cause in society and I have supported a few.
    I admire and appreciate your efforts.
    Cheers.

  49. “She clearly didn’t research widely if she thought Australia’s trade interests were best served by eschewing the EU in favour of an isolated UK.”

    She may have done research but its research done by an idiot. Have watched this one speak on occasion and it is awful.

    Really, as an IPA drone Downer the younger is an “inflatable toy” style candidate. Pull it out of the cupboard, inflate, program in its lines. No actual purpose or aims of its own, simply a grubby object that will reliably meets its owners needs.

  50. A dyslexic friend of mine thought it might help his condition if he joined a poetry club.

    He hasn’t come out with any poems yet, but he’s made some pretty nice jugs and vases and stuff.

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