BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

No change in voting intention, but Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is at its strongest in nearly two years.

The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.

The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

872 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 18
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  1. This article gives an insight into how McDonalds worldwide operates to minimise its tax obligations. It seems to shift countries over time according to prevailing tax regimes. Australia is not exempt from this legal but ethically questionable behaviour.

    Fast-food giant McDonald’s has defended its long-standing practice of paying hundreds of millions of dollars of royalties offshore, which has the effect of reducing its local taxes, as perfectly legitimate.

    The company’s latest financial accounts for the year ending December 31, 2017, show McDonald’s reduced its domestic tax bill by using a legal loophole that allows it to pay its head entity – previously based in Singapore but now based in Britain – a “service fee” amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/less-tax-still-on-the-menu-at-mcdonald-s-20180516-p4zfow.html?utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

  5. What might a woman do? I have some ideas, but, for now… over to the women on that one.

    I can’t say that what I do is the right or wrong thing to do, and, let me tell you, genetics and conditioning, that is, what kids see as they grow up, are powerful influencers with regards to behaviour exhibited later in life.

    Nevertheless, all I have had in my power to do is to talk. And explain. Constantly.

    Talk about what they saw when they were young. It wasn’t normal, nor, more contemporaneously, is it what they, themselves, should ever think about resorting to as a way to ‘resolve’ a domestic flare up.

    Try to think about de-escalating, quickly and aggressively, when it feels like things are escalating quickly and spiralling out of rational control.

    Also, after an incident occurs, if it has, spend the time talking it through together. Analysing what was done right and what went wrong, and why.

    Strategise about new and innovative ways to tackle these situations. Especially with a view to preventing catastrophic outcomes in the future. Incorporate new technology if you can think of ways to do it.

    Call out faults on both sides. It takes two to tango.

    Apologise. Even if you think you were the one wronged. Sometimes it may be the case that you have committed minor wrongs, if not the major ‘crime’.

    Try and extract a promise, as far as all parties are concerned, to do better and be more mindful in the future about other people’s feelings and their worth as human beings.

    Re-establish physical intimacy with all family members. This can be as simple as a hug.

    Maintain a constant dialogue. Even when only minor incidents occur in the future. If you don’t address them, often they can fester and blow up in a major way down the track as they pile up into an insurmountable mountain of grievance.

    Make sure that the peer group doesn’t exert undue negative influence.

    Other than that, I don’t know. I’m no expert. 🙂

  6. Been thinking about the international system and the rise and fall of empires.

    There seems to be a pattern.

    It takes 200 years for an empire to emerge and grow to a peak. Then there is a 30 year period of decline, although the initial period is steep but tails off more slowly. Thus we usually have perhaps 5 empires still powerful at any given time. Two emerging, two declining and one at its peak.

    Thus in 1300 we saw the rise of the Ottoman Empire. It lasted quite a while – really 600 years but was gone by 1920 . The Portugese Empire started about 1400, reached its zenith about 1600 but again took 300 years to decline completely. Then came the Spanish about 100 years after the Portuguese, zenith in the mid 1600s, replaced by the Dutch, who lasted 400 years disappearing in the post war decolonization period.
    , but again it is not quite deceased.
    The British empire lasted quite a long time, starting quite closely with the Dutch, but taking almost 300 years to reach its first peak. The dip post establishment of the USA was a set back but it restarted and reached its peak about 1900. Its decline has lasted only 100 years, but I suppose with the Commonwealth still and various colonial relics it is not quite deceased.

    The French empire got going about 100 years after the British one, was at its peak under Napoleon and declined quickly. It was a short lived empire but is not quite deceased.
    The Russian empire got going in the early 1700s was at it peak about 1900 and then collapsed completely. I guess however it more or less had a dynastic change and perhaps is still in the early stages of final decline or perhaps is a new empire – Jury out on this one.

    The most recent empire ins the USA which despite the rhetoric is an empire. it started in the early 180-0s with acquiring lands close by (as do all empires) but soon spread west to the Philippines and Hawaii and reached its peak I think in about 2000, with the collapse off the USSR.

    If History is to be any guide the USA is past its peak and on the downhill slope. It will of course be a major player for another 50-100 years but not the only or dominant major player.

    I think it is always hard to see just who is the emerging empire in its early stages. Rationally it should be some nation that got its act together about 1900 and is about to emerge. Actually Japan more or less filled this role in 1900 – 1940, but perhaps the Atomic bomb and the decision to take on the USA too early in the era derailed its rise. So maybe the USA will get an extra 50 years of dominance.

    This sort of fits with China, emerging in 1950, clearly on the rise. It should dominate (or be nearly the major) from roughly 2050 to 2200. China’s replacement is yet to show its face – wait 30 years and we may see. (or those of you under 60 anyway)

  8. “I don’t know. I am no expert”

    Simply there are no experts because every set of circumstances differ

    As my wife of now 20 plus years says “people are born bad and have to work at being good”

    Human nature does not change

    Past that the only observations I would make are that I said to my children that life is for the living – so it is the future we focus on

    And that I was their Dad

    The caveat has been that if they wish to discuss past times my door is always open – no matter the subject or the question and they never have accepted that invitation – in 25 years

    Even in response to a school essay same 10 years on I said to my son I had read it, gave him a hug and told him his Dad loved him – even the school rang me about the content of that essay and I said I was torn in addressing it or just reinforcing my love for my child – and I had decided the latter

    To me dredging over the past serves no purpose – it is the life they have lived with their Dad since which is the driver

    I trust I have evidenced to them right from wrong – and that is a life lesson

    I am reminded of a parenting course where the presenter said the most dangerous elements in your children’s lives were parents – the parents of other children

    And there is fact in that

  10. mikehilliard @ #89 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 8:30 am

    I see Brexit as a step backward in freedom even if that decision was arrived at via a democratic vote.

    Freedom, that’s one of the things that supporters were voting against when they voted yes.

    Many didn’t like the freedom of movement that membership gave especially allowing the eastern Europeans to come in and take all the jobs that they didn’t want to do!! 🙂

  11. poroti @ #156 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 2:53 pm

    The eruption in Hawaii hotting up.

    I’ve only watched the first link, but the contrast between the images of flowing lava and the calm weather report nature of the voice over is impressive. And it’s not like the report isn’t alarming. “…at the current rate (the lava) may cross the highway in the next 4 to 7 hours…”

  12. Boerwar @ #5490 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 1:26 pm

    Sentences that begin with ‘Men…’ (which means ALL men) are generally statistically incorrect. ‘Some’ or ‘Most’ or ‘Those men who…’ generally work better when we are trying to reach an understanding of what is going wrong and what we need to do. Ditto, sentences that begin with ‘Women…’

    The individuals who seek to blame ascribe, blame shift, blame deny or blame share are, IMO, part of the problem because we all already know that very many women and proportionately fewer men suffer domestic violence. We know that domestic violence inflicts terror, injuries and death.

    In short, we know we have a huge societal problem.

    What this man tries not to do, is to turn discussions about domestic violence into a sort of fruitless blame spraying or equally fruitless verbal game playing. Both these approaches, IMO, waste valuable energy that might better be directed at gaining a better understanding of domestic violence and what each one of us might do about it.

    So, let’s just move on from fruitless discussions.

    Let’s start discussing what we can do as individuals, as family members, as members of genders, as professionals, as Party members and as voters.

    What might a woman do? I have some ideas, but, for now… over to the women on that one.

    Thanks BW. Well modeled.

  16. Onebobsworth @ #90 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 8:30 am

    In reply to two responses to my post-
    Barney,are you being tongue-in-cheek or aren’t these by-elections? Are they elections? Please clarify.
    As for Labor being deflated if Mayo goes to the Government- I stand by that comment. I know Labor itself can’t win Mayo, but it Sharkie is defeated, it will have a huge,negative affect on Labor and a huge lift for the Coalition. That result would have huge implications for all 3 major Parties involved.
    That said, here’s hoping Sharkie wins comfortably.

    Not really, considering no by-election has been called yet.

    The Libs appear to be in no rush and that leaves open the option of an early election.

    The story about the Vic Libs and the delaying of pre-selections probably means Turnbull won’t go early but it’s an option.

    The other event on the horizon is the ALP national conference.

    They might want the campaigning to be during this to take advantage of any issues that come out or are raised during it. 🙂

  18. Late Riser

    The footage is a good reminder of who the boss is on planet earth, not us . Yes, good calm reporting. A pleasant change from the more common US “OMG! OMG! OMG!” style 🙂

  20. steve davis says: Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 3:32 pm

    Barney
    No need to blow your top over my comment!!

    ******************************************

    Its OK Steve – we all know Barney is a lavable guy !

  24. Bushfire Bill @ #163 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 3:23 pm

    Can’t find any comments on this morning’s Insiders show.

    That bad, eh?

    From Bemused (obviously).

    bemused (Block)
    Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 12:11 pm
    Comment #102

    I am sorry I missed the Royal Wedding.
    Had I know Rev. Cleophus and the Triple Rock Choir would be involved I would have watched in expectation of Jake and Elwood doing a cameo appearance.

    Insiders was good this morning with poor old Gerard providing just the right amount of comedy relief without having too much of him.

    TTFN

  25. Our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon and Mayo and the greens will win Perth and freemantle and ALP will have to dump bill shorten if they want to win the next election or Malcolm Turnbull will be returned as PM by a landslide……..

  26. Can’t find any comments on this morning’s Insiders show.

    They had a dull, un-insightful panel. I think people prefer to watch the program when there’s a chance they’ll get some actual insights.

  28. steve davis says: Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 3:47 pm

    That was Waynes volcano joke.

    **********************************************

    You should be ash-amed to admit that

  29. poroti @ #167 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    Late Riser

    The footage is a good reminder of who the boss is on planet earth, not us . Yes, good calm reporting. A pleasant change from the more common US “OMG! OMG! OMG!” style 🙂

    I do enjoy watching the lesser reporters being stuck out in the miserableness though.

    And coincidentally I just recently finished a 3 book series by N.K. Jemisin, “The Broken Earth” specifically about the shit you’re in if the earth doesn’t like you. Maybe that’s why this eruption is more than usually interesting to me.

  31. Thanks for those Hawaii volcano links and videos.

    I have a friend in Hawaii at present, so have a reason to keep tabs.

  32. Steve Davis

    You know it’s true that our great LNP are going to win three of the by elections and Greens will win the other two by elections and that our Great LNP are going to win the next election by a landslide and ALP will still be in opposition till 2025…….

  34. Confessions@12:39pm
    If that is the calibre and standard of research at IPA, no wonder this government is getting such bad advice from IPA, where they think free trade with UK is more beneficial to OZ than free trade with EU.
    But I am of the opinion that when a cooutry with small economy free trades with a country/block with Large economy it is large economy that benefits. But when you trade with a economy with diminishing economy, it is country which is trading with diminishing economy that loses.

  35. poroti

    Best comment so far from family members watching the live lava feed over my shoulder: “Better than the wedding.”

  36. Wayne says: Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 4:00 pm

    Steve Davis

    You know it’s true that our great LNP are going to win three of the by elections and Greens will win the other two by elections and that our Great LNP are going to win the next election by a landslide and ALP will still be in opposition till 2025…….

    *******************************************

    I bet Steve is just erupting in laughter …….

  42. Ven says: Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 4:11 pm

    C@tmomma @1:11 pn
    If you look at the the dress with Harry face, it also conveys something else.

    *********************************************************

    I know I will regret this – Harry – a “beard” ( slang ) ????????

  43. Phoenixred

    You also know that our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon Mayo and our great LNP will also go on to win the next election by a landslide and ALP will be in opposition till 2025 and Turnbull will be the best PM Yet……

  45. Wayne says: Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 4:23 pm

    Phoenixred

    You also know that our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon Mayo and our great LNP will also go on to win the next election by a landslide and ALP will be in opposition till 2025 and Turnbull will be the best PM Yet……

    *******************************************

    Whatever Wayne – I was just blowing my stack at Steve for his magnanimity …..

  46. Re: Ven –

    “C@tmomma @1:11 pn
    If you look at the the dress with Harry face, it also conveys something else.”

    Dress? I thought they were swimsuits. The Harry face one has the advantage in that the wearer doesn’t have to worry about her bikini line when wearing it in public …

  47. phoenixRED @ #195 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 4:30 pm

    Wayne says: Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 4:23 pm

    Phoenixred

    You also know that our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon Mayo and our great LNP will also go on to win the next election by a landslide and ALP will be in opposition till 2025 and Turnbull will be the best PM Yet……

    *******************************************

    Whatever Wayne – I was just blowing my stack at Steve for his magnanimity …..

    How Pompeiious of you!

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