The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.
The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:
WeWantPaul @ #431 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:50 am
Oh twaddle. How naive and silly can you be. They are talking it up at every bloody moment. Mind you I think they may have started to think in a new direction. increasingly they are coming out very badly. This insider stuff will be very, very, very damaging.
WWP. Do not abuse me if you do not want to get return fire. Your comment is ignorant and outdated.
There is no long list. There is a case against Manafort for crimes in 2005. Judge Ellis may well rule that Mueller has no power in this indictment.
Flynn has retracted his guilty plea. It was a pretty trivial offence anyway and indeed may well not have been an offence at all. Now he MAY have taken payments from Turkey that were improper but I do not think these are part of the indictment.
There were 13 Russian hackers – low level kids in basements – not in the US so no indictments or trials likely.
Some obvious Russian spy agencies of long standing.
No statements of any deliberate collusion by anyone in the Trump team.
So far anyhow Mueller has delivered nothing at all. Perhaps he is keeping his powder dry for the “BIG ONE” but somehow I think his tent is damp and it will all prove to b fizzers.
Last week there were also a ton of stuff that was anti Democrat. If you do not grasp that the possibility of the FBI having deliberately planted a spy in the Trump campaign is not a bigger than Ben Hur deal then there is no hope for you. Which will fire up the public. Some dossier from an MI6 Brit or an “Obama” spy in the Trump camp. Yes I do know that the Republicans probably did the same in 2008 but it is getting caught that matters.
Not sure why you have that idea. Try reading something other than Rachel Maddow.
Quite
Nate now has the generic polling data difference at 4.6 – pretty well the same as RCP. The trend is narrowing. But as I said there is still 5 months to go, so much could change.
No this is stupidity. They need to focus on policy messages eg health care, wages and JOBS. What you seem unable to grasp is that the voters do not give a rat’s arse if trump is corrupt. They knew it all along. They want to see Wall St trashed. They do not really care about Russia at all. It is passe. I am not interested in reading Dem partisan crud
I get it all in parrot fashion here. It is predicable and dull and out of touch.
Trump will collapse becaue of his own weakness and failure. Note his backtrack on the Chinese tariffs. That is what will destroy him, not some two year old stuff on collusion. However while the economy is or seems to be improving he will survive. if the economy tanks then he is histroy.
Mind you the dems had better get a good message going or some crazed third party will steal the show.
Quite agree. Yours was a hilariously dumb post – really really bad the WORST
I think Alinta were hoping to get on board a train that would involve a lot of Government subsidies. Their ‘just give me liddel’ was transparently a stupid offer unless they were hoping the Govt would give them tonnes of taxpayer money and some political muscle to make the bid work.
Equally AGL will be hoping for a lot of free govt money and the best way to get that is to hold onto the asset.
AR,
You forgot to factor in air resistance.
All models are wrong, but some are useful.
Bushfire Bill @ #489 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 11:16 am
Another excellent post! I am becoming quite a fan of your posts.
I don’t understand the problems people have with Charlie either. I have taken a passing interest in him over the years, as we are of the same generation, think he does have a few rather eccentric ideas but is also quite good on environmental issues.
The ‘Sanders type candidates’ I assume are the ones who are making a point of not receiving corporate PAC money.
Recently several establishment Dems expected to run in 2020 have announced they will no longer take PAC money. Is this a bad consequence of Bernie’s presence in the party?
Libertarian Unionist @ #499 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 11:28 am
When AGL announces the closure of a coal-fired power plant before its planned decommissioning date, then it will be time to celebrate. Not before.
ItzaDream @ #384 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:58 am
Prognosis on such matters is a minefield, but you’ve got ten years at best. Phil The Greek looked crook didn’t you think?
Speaking of thinking, I have to say I thought of you as I saw what the team of mowers had delivered – such perfectly presented greens through which the newly weds paraded – and thought of that little bit of Windsor nestled there in Newcastle, green and clipped and loved to the last blade.
******************************
I did think Phil looked his age. They were, as were we, once happy and full of fun and now heading to join with the universe for ever, although not today, I hope.
I have been mowing and weeding again today.
I have a new Solid State Drive for my main computer and will now sign off and set to reloading into this marvelous toy.
♫It went zip when it move, bop when it stopped, whirr /when it stood still
I never knew just ♪what it was and I guess I never will. ♫
There’s a great picture on the net of the queen with a grim expression looking at Megan.
Caption underneath says.
“When you’re plotting a car crash, but remember you already used that idea once before.”
I have seen one or two Rachel Maddow clips but is she someone I should be reading? I assume there is a MSNBC website, but it feels like too much work. If DTT thinks she is bad perhaps I should give her a look.
The current crooked media ‘With Friends like These’ pod has Jon Favreau talking about the dems differences stuff, so if he says anything interesting about the Bernie DNC stuff I’ll be sure to share.
Who is celebrating, P1?
It’s early in the week to be constructing strawmen.
“Recently several establishment Dems expected to run in 2020 have announced they will no longer take PAC money. Is this a bad consequence of Bernie’s presence in the party?”
Isn’t it occurring despite Bernie not being in the party at all?
Libertarian Unionist @ #509 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 11:38 am
Do they burn well? 🙂
Hey LU since you are here, in Australia generally is there any chance of coal fired going onto a kind of ‘care and maintenance’ ready for emergency status because their opex is greater than the capex and opex of new renewables?
I think I saw something that suggested the new coal plants in India and China will probably have less than 20 years in them regardless of their expected closing date?
LU
I am celebrating because it means normal business has made a rational decision on energy policy.
Not cave into ideological bullying by a government.
Thus bringing some reality to the Energy Wars.
The ideological mob in the LNP have been mugged by reality trumping belief.
HIH showed how useless ASIC and the courts are.
One senior manager/director was in offices the morning when it was to be placed in receivership at noon. He directed a clerk to draw a bank cheque for the $100,000 he had with HIH as loan to HIH from one of his companies before midday.
Police later laid charges against him when they found out, magistrate dismissed the charges.
Why would you continue doing that sort of work when you get that sort of result, why bother.
DTT@9:55am
I presume Your post is based on the assumption that Queen and Charles will be alive for the period you mentioned(you may say why not because queen mother was alive for over 100 years and queen is now 91)
BTW, how does it matter to people where queen is monarch whether Blacks like charles?
Remember Brexit will be determined next year
WWP
The reason the Democrats let Sanders have the role he does is because it advantages them politically.
Sanders brings independent votes to the Democrats. Remember the “division” is like that of the Labor division. Lots of media hype making a mountain out of a molehill.
Bushfire Bill @ #455 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 11:16 am
BB
1. Tend to agree.I know someone who met charlie in the course of his employment (a good lefty) who said charlie was a very nice chap
2. I assume you are counting only to time from seeing it at its maximum height, not the time from when it emerges from the volcano.
3. Absolutely
guytaur @ #487 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:13 am
It was decriminalised in NSW years ago.
Ven @ #480 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 11:44 am
Ven
Yes obviously re the life span. Betty will last a while – 5 years sems reasonable before she abstains.
Somehow looking at Charles he does not seem quite as robust as his parents. So I give him to 85.
Re the black supporters – I was thinking of people within Britain – there is a large black population and of course also within the wider Commonwealth.
However the Monarchy is a huge tourism driver in the UK so I cannot see it ending soon.
DG
Really? Why the drug sniffing dogs then?
Just MDMA?
Another “how smart are you” quiz.
http://definition.org/how-smart-are-you-quiz/
The Silver Bodgie.
Given Cambridge Analytica the smart answer of course is not to do the quiz.
Hey LU since you are here, in Australia generally is there any chance of coal fired going onto a kind of ‘care and maintenance’ ready for emergency status because their opex is greater than the capex and opex of new renewables?
Yep, but gas will be mothballed first, because of the merit-order effect.
For example, Swanbank E (Qld), Tamar Valley (Tas) and Torrens Island (SA) have all been mothballed for periods recently. Swanbank was brought back online to reduce prices and volatility in the Qld region (i.e. they could make a buck). Tamar Valley was recommissioned after the Basslink cable mysteriously shorted. Torrens Island is receiving a very handsome reliability payment to be online almost all the time because of a bunch of technical reasons I’m not going to start on.
BUT:
1. None of the filthy brown coal stations will be mothballed because their is no competing use for their filthy brown coal. Some thermal coal from Qld might face sufficient international price pressure to be decommissioned, not sure about NSW black coal.
2. Maintaining a steam turbine is costly (I know less about the steam boilers, but can imagine they are too), so there must be a very good chance that the station will be called upon in the future for it to make sense to bear the mothballing costs, rather than just knock it over.
Libertarian Unionist @ #523 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 11:54 am
This is precisely why we desperately need an Emissions Intensity Scheme. If we just leave it to “business as usual” or the ridiculous NEG, then we will continue to burn coal while mothballing the less polluting (but more expensive) alternatives.
WWP I watch Rachel Maddow most nights … the clips/segments are separate so you can not watch that which is irrelevant to what you’re interested in.
One thing she does do is tease out the argument/issue in a way that is easily understood.
Friday night she showed the parallels between actions of Nixon and Trump … at first I couldn’t understand why she was doing the expose on Nixon and his tapes … but when she got to the point of parallel the penny dropped! It was well worth sitting through.
She also gets on the authors of many of the NYT/WP etc. articles that make the news of the day and then get them to explain the detail. Often rounds out understanding
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show
Alice Workman tweets
Head of security branch of DPS now being asked if he said: “I’m going to burn this security division to the ground and start again”.
He doesn’t deny saying it: “it sounds like something I might have said. #estimates
guytaur @ #520 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:52 am
Possessing less than a 1/4 of an ounce (in old weights) is decriminalised. They take down your name and address and confiscate the “goods”. No charges are made or laid. On the third time you get caught with the same amount you get compulsory rehab.
As for sniffer dogs, yeah, probably for harder substances. Cynical NSWelshmen say the cops take small amounts of pot from punters so they have some to sell back onto the streets.
Any amounts larger than 1/4 oz get a fine, and above a certain amount (not sure what it is), you’re deemed to have “intent to sell” which is whole different kettle of fish.
So, if you take a joint to a pub or concert, you’d just get your name and address taken and your joint confiscated.
DG
Thanks 🙂
DTT@11:52am
Yesterday I heard on ABC radio that megan is a mature bride when compared to recent royal brides and hence she should be able to handle royal duties without much difficult
The reporter mentioned she is of Harry’s mother age when she died.
If this news shocks you, you haven’t been paying much attention.
“NAB has changed its cash rate call and is now predicting a 25bp increase will now come in mid-2019.” – Fairfax markets live
It’s funny to see banks delaying their rate rise expectations by 1 month every month, such that we have been forecasting rate rises “in 12 months”, for about 18 months now.
DTT I read your post, don’t see a lot of point in responding to any of the particular points but at a high level:
November will tell its story in November, I’ll continue to listen to what Nate, Claire and Cohen say about the race numbers, and I’ll continue to listen to crooked media and their take on the #resistance efforts and strategies.
I did just hear someone on a crooked media pod roast Maddow for being too focused on Affaire de Rousse, as they call it on the Lawfare podcast. So perhaps you are watching too much Maddow, and confusing a media organisation which MSNBC is with a full on propaganda machine that is Fox, I’m guessing you watch a lot of that too.
I’m not quite sure where Brookings / Lawfare are coming from, they seem very establishment right wing to me (in non-political stuff) but there are suggestions they have a liberal lean.
I don’t expect Trump to be impeached (even if there is a massive blue wave and dem senate) I don’t think there are enough republicans that would put Country ahead of party. I do think he is a very stupid third rate criminal and any competent Congress / Senate of either party that supported the rule of law and put country ahead of party would have impeached him already.
Early prediction that the big losers of the Trump experiment, other than the US as Country, will be the NRA and the religious right. In particular the religious right will be laughed at next time and every time they get onto a moral soapbox having supported Trump.
I do not think the US as a voting collective is very smart, for example they collectively have failed to notice guns as the key ingredient in gun massacres, this weekend preferring to look at doors as the main culprit. So they may revert to their pretty stupid norm rather than turf Trump.
DTT I read your post, don’t see a lot of point in responding to any of the particular points but at a high level:
November will tell its story in November, I’ll continue to listen to what Nate, Claire and Cohen say about the race numbers, and I’ll continue to listen to crooked media and their take on the #resistance efforts and strategies.
I did just hear someone on a crooked media pod roast Maddow for being too focused on Affaire de Rousse, as they call it on the Lawfare podcast. So perhaps you are watching too much Maddow, and confusing a media organisation which MSNBC is with a full on propaganda machine that is Fox, I’m guessing you watch a lot of that too.
I’m not quite sure where Brookings / Lawfare are coming from, they seem very establishment right wing to me (in non-political stuff) but there are suggestions they have a liberal lean.
I don’t expect Trump to be impeached (even if there is a massive blue wave and dem senate) I don’t think there are enough republicans that would put Country ahead of party. I do think he is a very stupid third rate criminal and any competent Congress / Senate of either party that supported the rule of law and put country ahead of party would have impeached him already.
Early prediction that the big losers of the Trump experiment, other than the US as Country, will be the NRA and the religious right. In particular the religious right will be laughed at next time and every time they get onto a moral soapbox having supported Trump.
I do not think the US as a voting collective is very smart, for example they collectively have failed to notice guns as the key ingredient in gun massacres, this weekend preferring to look at doors as the main culprit. So they may revert to their pretty stupid norm rather than turf Trump.
@RepSwalwell @BradleyTusk @BuzzFeed “Secure internet voting is a bit like the phrase ‘safe cigarettes.’” – Professor Ron Rivest, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/last-thursday-our-science
WWP@11:38am
Rachel Maddow is very good.
“WWP I watch Rachel Maddow most nights … the clips/segments are separate so you can not watch that which is irrelevant to what you’re interested in.”
Thanks Jen, as someone who doesn’t live in America their domestic debates aren’t that interesting, like just dumb they don’t have healthcare but it doesn’t impact me. But the affaire de rousse is fascinating.
“You want mind boggling!
I visited Krakatau and as you walk up it’s side you see boulders more than a metre in diameter resting in impact craters in the ash.”
Visiting Lake Toba in sumatra boggled me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory
Event that may have had serious implications in human evolution, and whatever….was an awfully big bang.
And this one:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acraman_crater
Apparently the impact tossed sizable rocks all over what are now the Flinders Ranges?
Ha, ha.
A 100 tonne basalt boulder, or a similarly-sized great glob of molten lava falling from a height of less that a few hundred metres (probably less than a few kilometres) wouldn’t worry too much about air resistance.
You could always stand under one and see if it is a factor, of course. Come back and tell us how it goes. If you’re right, I’ll cheerfully amend my equation, and the drinks are on me.
The only active volcano I have ever been on is that one in the middle of the caldera at Santorini, the one where your shoes start to catch fire if you linger too long in one place.
To really appreciate the power of a volcano though, you need to be sitting in a cliffside restaurant in Thira town, drinking lots of Mythos, gazing down at the large ships in the harbour below you that look, for all the world, like Dinky Toys.
Then contemplate that the caldera you are staring down into, thousands of feet deep and tens of kilometres wide, was “excavated” in probably just a couple of seconds.
FYI for those writing equations and temperatures.
Hold the ALT key down and type 0178 = ²
as in 9.8m/s² – a number which of course differs depending on where you are in relation to the geoid (the global equipotential surface) if you reference it to the gravity potential that equates to 9.8… IIRC.
Hold the ALT key down and type 0176 = °
as in the temperature never gets above 12°C in the freezing miserable winters in the shadow of Mount Lofty.
“A 100 tonne basalt boulder, or a similarly-sized great glob of molten lava falling from a height of less that a few hundred metres (probably less than a few kilometres) wouldn’t worry too much about air resistance.”
Same same applies to something largish rocky or icy coming in from space. If it comes in at a steep angle it is simply is not in the atmosphere long enough for air resistance and ablation to be relevant.
The physics of large rocks hurtling through the air is fascinating. Provided your not underneath one……..
Ven @ #494 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 12:03 pm
Ven
Yes I heard that too.
I must admit that until Saturday I knew nothing of the lady but I was rather impressed at her CV. She seems smart and genuinely committed. probably a bit too good for Harry.
Not as well as your arguments. Those are pyrophoric 🙂
I think it is probably the worst part of the political process but if we are going to pick teams and engage in US liberal on liberal violence, I’m going to be team: Kirsten Elizabeth Gillibrand, although I have lots of sympathy for Team Kamala Devi Harris.
I’ve only just noticed Jason Kander and I’ll listen to his Majority 54 podcast a bit before I decide if I’ll pencil him into 3rd place.
Obviously I’ll have to adjust this as I learn more, but Kirsten will be hard to beat from the top of my list.
A pyrrhic victory?
WWP –
“Like Bernie, who isn’t a democrat at all, the Bernie type democrats will be a huge problem for the democrats. You gotta meet voters where they are and take them with you, you can’t setup camp 100 kms away and yell at them to come to you.”
This. The same could be said of the corbynistas in the UK, the Green wiggle and unreconstructed ALP Left in Australia.
That’s a nice spot for a cold one, BB 🙂
Yeah, that may have been the magic mushrooms they put in their omelettes tho. I felt quite boggled after one of those. It made the ensuing moped trip off to a nearby waterfall an interesting one.
Voice Endeavour
Is that a delay in expectations for the next rate rise? This would be of interest to me due to exchange rate implications
The NT News displaying the correct amount of reverence.
WeWantPaul @ #495 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 12:03 pm
WWP
Without trying to restart the nastiness, I do not watch Maddow or indeed any basic US news service. I scan several alternative left leaning sites (Information Clearing House if you want to know what is happening really in the world without Murdoch spin) and Mike Whitney Grasping at straws which has links to socialist sites – good for economic stuff.
I also scan RCP which tries to be unbiased. Now you actually do not need to read the links at RCP, because scanning the headlines quickly informs you of the debate. You can pick and choose.
So you read Mueller is getting close from the WaPo or NYT followed immediately by
Mueller has overstepped and is failing in the Washington Examiner or the Hill etc. So you know there is a debate happening and you do not need to spend too much time reading the minutiae.
For polling I use RCP mostly because it is easier to follow but also I go to Nate, especially as the election gets closer.