BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

No change in voting intention, but Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is at its strongest in nearly two years.

The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.

The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

872 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

  1. “This. The same could be said of the corbynistas in the UK, the Green wiggle and unreconstructed ALP Left in Australia.”

    I have mixed feelings. It is a long story that bores me, but I’ve ended up in a Left Branch, having not been a member for more than 8 years. I’m very comfortable with debate inside parties, both Corbyn and the left in Australia are inside their parties. It will take a Corbyn like character to be elected to see how they go.

    The Shortens and the McGowans (WA premier) seem to be unaware of the political tide, the ALP seems to produce non leader, leaders. It could be worse we could produce Abbotts and Turnbulls. Perhaps the NZ PM is a middle road leader model we should think about some more. But yeah the media loves left on left wars so best we avoid them as far as possible.

  2. AE

    Your bias is showing. Sanders has advocated for Universal Medical Care using Australia as an example

    Sanders has been advocating for a living wage.

    These are now policies in the Democrat party on the living wage. Democrats moving more towards Universal Medicare as well.

    The Democrats are more untied than divided.

    Like here its the right that is divided but we don’t hear the hype.

    As for Greens being bad for Labor I have news for you. Preferences go to Labor.
    The Greens are not to blame for the actions of the LNP.

    Keep that in mind and you can have a rational discussion on those to the left of the right forces talking up left division and talking down the division on the right.

    Left division is the little trickle running down the gutter. The right division is the Amazon River.

    Don’t forget Sanders campaigned for Clinton.
    Despite the Russian Bots talking up the division and trying to get voters to stay home or vote Trump.

    Remember many of us saying if you voted Sanders why the hell would you vote Trump? Rational did not count with the bots but instead it was emotion and division as outlined by Cambridge Analytic.

    Don’t fall for the Labor v Green the media is going to try and make out of the by elections.

    Its progressive v ideological extremists on the right. Even in Braddon never forget Jackie Lambie voted for coal by voting against Labor’s ETS scheme.

    Lambie’s vote was not a Green vote.

  3. imacca @ #538 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 12:14 pm

    Same same applies to something largish rocky or icy coming in from space. If it comes in at a steep angle it is simply is not in the atmosphere long enough for air resistance and ablation to be relevant.

    The physics of large rocks hurtling through the air is fascinating. Provided your not underneath one……..

    Different use-case though. Comets and things from space aren’t falling to Earth due to Earth’s gravity. They’re “falling” towards the sun, and the Earth just happened to be unlucky enough to get in their way. They’ve built up enough initial velocity, relative to Earth, that their interaction with the (lowest 90% of the) atmosphere is over in a second or less.

  4. “So you read Mueller is getting close from the WaPo or NYT followed immediately by
    Mueller has overstepped and is failing in the Washington Examiner or the Hill etc”

    It was buzzfeed that had the big break last week, stuff Mueller has had since December from memory. The problem with Mueller’s probe is he is very professional and it isn’t leaked, so you end up getting stuff 4 months old leaked by various third rate mafia colleagues of Trump for their own purposes.

    And it was just that kind of leak last week with the third rate Trump operatives and criminals Felix Slater and Michael Cohen providing the new Russia link news last week, even though the investigation has had it all for months.

    None of the mainstream media deserves all that much credit when the porn stars lawyer seems to have got further in a couple of media loving clown works out more in months than they have in years.

  5. IIRC, assuming the lava bomb is thrown straight up, the energy required to lob it to a particular height is the same as its potential energy at that height i.e. P.E. = mass (kg) * g (9.8m/s²) * height (m)

    e.g. A 10kg lava bomb that reaches 100m in height required 9.8 kJ of kinetic energy to get there.

  6. LoL:

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    39s40 seconds ago

    Energy Minister @JoshFrydenberg: The Australian energy market operator has found that without the Liddell power plant there would be a shortfall of 850 megawatts of dispatchable power and greater likelihood of blackouts.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2s0uXbc #NewsDay

  7. WeWantPaul @ #516 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 12:30 pm

    “So you read Mueller is getting close from the WaPo or NYT followed immediately by
    Mueller has overstepped and is failing in the Washington Examiner or the Hill etc”

    It was buzzfeed that had the big break last week, stuff Mueller has had since December from memory. The problem with Mueller’s probe is he is very professional and it isn’t leaked, so you end up getting stuff 4 months old leaked by various third rate mafia colleagues of Trump for their own purposes.

    And it was just that kind of leak last week with the third rate Trump operatives and criminals Felix Slater and Michael Cohen providing the new Russia link news last week, even though the investigation has had it all for months.

    WWP

    I have no time at all for Mueller and it has nothing whatever to do with Trump.

    In 001/2 he presided over the atrocious treatment of Hatfield the biological scientist who was initially fingered as a patsy for the anthrax attacks. it was a case of guilty first then trial

    He was shown not to be the culprit but his career and life was destroyed. he is part of the FBI and as such is poorly placed to be unbiased in this investigation.

  8. “Yeah, that may have been the magic mushrooms they put in their omelettes tho. ”

    Wot, me eat that!! 🙂 Ok, did once in indonesia with a couple of friends.
    Then the power went off and we had a thunderstorm break right overhead. 🙂
    Interesting experience.

  9. Wot, me eat that!!

    I wasnt warned! But as the island of Toba was on the hippy trail (and it still showed) I probably should have suspected.

  10. Some of the bolides that have hit Earth in the past have been so big that when their front end touches ground, their arse is still higher than the highest jet airliner can fly. That’s BIG.

    No need to worry, though. There’s only a couple of million of them that size whizzing around in the solar system. And we think we’ve spotted most of them.

    But when you think that a rock about 20 metres in diameter (give or take) is equal to a megaton… and then throw in that won’t know one’s going to hit us until it does… sheesh…

  11. Anyone just see Barnaby Joyce on Sky New?

    Laura Jayes put to him his shelving of animal welfare reports and defunding or animal welfare groups/initiatives while Agriculture ministers. He responds with my enemies are after me and where is the evidence of me being a bad agriculture minister.

  12. Ah the aroma of pork .

    Kristina Keneally
    (@KKeneally)
    What we have learned so far from this #estimates is that the Turnbull Govt decided to grant the largest ever funding for the Great Barrier Reef ‘in Australian history’ – nearly half a billion dollars – to the with no open or transparent process.

    May 21, 2018

  13. KayJay @ 11.22am

    I love your posts, they always make me smile. Thank you. I certainly am old enough to remember the pencil licking days. Also when I grew up in Scotland, the waiting in line at the grocer’s to be served, none of those wobbly-wheeled trolley things or disinterested staff mechanically scanning purchases. The excitement of patting or feeding a carrot to the various horses belonging to the greengrocer, fishmonger, coal man, rag and bone man, milkman – ah, nostalgia! 🙂

    PS: I’ll only be 96!

  14. WeWantPaul @ #516 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 12:30 pm

    “So you read Mueller is getting close from the WaPo or NYT followed immediately by
    Mueller has overstepped and is failing in the Washington Examiner or the Hill etc”

    It was buzzfeed that had the big break last week, stuff Mueller has had since December from memory. The problem with Mueller’s probe is he is very professional and it isn’t leaked, so you end up getting stuff 4 months old leaked by various third rate mafia colleagues of Trump for their own purposes.

    And it was just that kind of leak last week with the third rate Trump operatives and criminals Felix Slater and Michael Cohen providing the new Russia link news last week, even though the investigation has had it all for months.

    WWP

    Trouble is that no matter how seedy the deal was (it probably was seedy) the trump camp will just pull out the Clinton uranium deal as a counter.

    Since everyone knew and understood Trump was a sleazy real estate developer the Russian deal will have zero impact, but selling uranium is certain to anger.

    Look we all have bias. But it is a good idea to step back and consider how the average person will react, not your friends.

  15. allan moyes @ #530 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    KayJay @ 11.22am

    I love your posts, they always make me smile. Thank you. I certainly am old enough to remember the pencil licking days. Also when I grew up in Scotland, the waiting in line at the grocer’s to be served, none of those wobbly-wheeled trolley things or disinterested staff mechanically scanning purchases. The excitement of patting or feeding a carrot to the various horses belonging to the greengrocer, fishmonger, coal man, rag and bone man, milkman – ah, nostalgia! 🙂

    PS: I’ll only be 96!

    Alan

    Were you once a pretty senor Canberra (foreign affairs or Trade guy) and were you in an ALP branch? I am probably mixing you up with someone else.

  16. Guytaur I did a bit of accidental research and I’m pretty sure you were referring to the fight this week in the 7th Texas, where the DNC dropped a dirt sheet on Laura Mosley in the first primary. The runoff primary is this week it will be interesting.

    If you are interested 538 did an emergency podcast on this late last week, but first time I tried to listen to it, it wouldn’t load.

    As a completely irrelevant aside, Harris County is the only place in the US I’ve spent more than a weekend in.

  17. allan moyes @ #566 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    KayJay @ 11.22am

    I love your posts, they always make me smile. Thank you. I certainly am old enough to remember the pencil licking days. Also when I grew up in Scotland, the waiting in line at the grocer’s to be served, none of those wobbly-wheeled trolley things or disinterested staff mechanically scanning purchases. The excitement of patting or feeding a carrot to the various horses belonging to the greengrocer, fishmonger, coal man, rag and bone man, milkman – ah, nostalgia! 🙂

    PS: I’ll only be 96!

    I can remember most of those things in a small country NSW town.

    A horse bolting along a main street is a sight to behold (and to run from).
    I have my new Solid State drive installed and will get on with loading buckets of bits and pieces.

    I try to amuse myself with posting although aged care stuffups upset me.

    You are a very interesting person.
    Be kind to yourself. 🙂
    I haven’t got all my icon tabs loaded yet. Never mind.

  18. “Look we all have bias. But it is a good idea to step back and consider how the average person will react, not your friends.”

    Yeah I have very few friends but they do / would react in a large variety of ways. And clearly the biggest hurdle two Australian idiots have, is neither of us are going to have a good grasp of how a range of different Americans are going to react to any issue.

    I also, through my work, have ready access to a broad range of Australian right wing responses which I provoke from time to time just for kicks.

  19. Idiots invade Church congretation.

    Again? FFS. The confidence to pull off this sort of stunt comes from the whistlers at the top. Try to protest on a chicken battery farm or a private logging plot and see the limits to the RW’s newfound love for free speech come crashing down like a kick to your head.

  20. “he Liberals’ and Labor’s tax plans will worsen inequality and see us lose vital revenue for the essential services people rely upon. Neither of the old parties have a plan to address the tax avoidance system.https://t.co/I2NrBEZsqt pic.twitter.com/SLO6ZxfiQW— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) May 21, 2018″

    Except there is a global plan / response both parties have signed up too … typical RDN rubbish

  21. WWP

    I did listen to the podcast. So yes you will find it very interesting.

    Its why I said appearance of Sanders v Washington Elites.

    The two candidates had very very similar policies.

    Sanders is part of the Democrats narrative because they want him to be. They want him in the tent not outside it thus his people on committees etc.

    After listening to that podcast it was clear to me the division in the Democrats is more talked up than reality. That is mole hill turned into a mountain.

  22. Simon² Katich® @ #550 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 1:03 pm

    Idiots invade Church congretation.

    Again? FFS. The confidence to pull off this sort of stunt comes from the whistlers at the top. Try to protest on a chicken battery farm or a private logging plot and see the limits to the RW’s newfound love for free speech come crashing down like a kick to your head.

    Bowers received a bit of international retweeting last week and I’m guessing this is the response from the forces of stupidity.

  23. “Its why I said appearance of Sanders v Washington Elite”

    Yeah I listened and I understand your POV, but I would still argue it is the sanders types jumping onto a progressive candidate (although as much as the DNC must hate her is materially more progressive than her opponent) rather than a Sander’s candidate.

    IMHO it is much more Sanders, and his social media supporters, riding on the coattails of these kind of candidates, rather than the other way around.

  24. Poroti,

    Malcolm is very generous with my their people’s money.

    Didn’t he give $12m of other people’s money to some flak to do rain seeding experiments.? (it should have gone to CSIRO).

    Didn’t he give $30m of other people’s money to Foxtell to televise womens’ sport? (It should have gone to the ABC so everyone could see it).

    I am sure there are other examples of his generosity, but the half billion to the Great Barrier Reef foundation (who?) is by far the most generous.

  25. I’m guessing this is the response from the forces of stupidity.

    There was a dark underbelly in Gosford when I was there way back. Bikies, skinheads. Pretty sure the bikies owned one of the pubs in the old part of Gosford.

    And of course there are the areas out in the ranges where it seems quiet and serene but if you listen carefully, you will here the distant playing of banjos through the birdsong.

  26. WWP

    Remember when you talk social media types jumping on the bandwagon you have to distinguish between Sanders and social media people who are actually voters or Russian Bots.

    I never thought there was a big Sanders go vote for Trump thing happening off social media.

    That was Russian Bots.
    Not Sanders. As I said mountain molehill.

  27. Boris @ #514 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 11:43 am

    HIH showed how useless ASIC and the courts are.

    One senior manager/director was in offices the morning when it was to be placed in receivership at noon. He directed a clerk to draw a bank cheque for the $100,000 he had with HIH as loan to HIH from one of his companies before midday.

    Police later laid charges against him when they found out, magistrate dismissed the charges.

    Why would you continue doing that sort of work when you get that sort of result, why bother.

    It seems Magistrates are simply unaccountable for their daft decisions.

  28. “It seems Magistrates are simply unaccountable for their daft decisions.”

    If you ignore the rest of the Court system, yeah magistrates are unaccountable …. although having said that I think there are some sentences / criminal matters that aren’t open to appeal, but it is a long time since I studied criminal or civil procedure.

  29. I like how the journalist proclaims it a “valuable lesson” for Trump, as if Trump is the sort of person who learns things.

  30. “Trump outplayed by China in Trade War negotiations..”

    I’ve got a cat I’d back to outplay Trump in trade war negotiations.

  31. “But as the island of Toba was on the hippy trail (and it still showed) I probably should have suspected.”

    Best memory from Toba (apart from hanging with German hippies in the off season getting rained on ) was the ferry trip over the lake. Hit the markets and bought a bag of mangoes before boarding. Ferry course left a trail of mango skin and seeds from me on the top deck.

    Mangoes = Happiness. 🙂

  32. After leaving Lake Toba I got lost in the wilds of Sumatra – well i was on a bus but it it felt like being lost. No one spoke any English and they had not seen a white face for 20 years. My friend (female) was Indian so no white. when I finally got off the bus the police ran me (us) out of town. I guess an unescorted white female was too much of a risk of trouble.

  33. WWP

    Here is an example of how Maddow can be excellent listening

    MSNBC tweeted yesterday
    Rachel Maddow revisits the history of Richard Nixon trying to use the IRS to audit his personal political enemies and notes the parallels with Donald Trump’s attempt to punish Amazon with higher postal rates. https://on.msnbc.com/2LdDfW8

  34. imacca

    Best memory from Toba…

    well, I could tell you that it was either Toba or Pulau Weh that led to my firstborn.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *