BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

No change in voting intention, but Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is at its strongest in nearly two years.

The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.

The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

872 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

  1. It’s misleading because they’ve actually allocated 3 pages to the wedding (or 4 if you count the cover page), versus 2 pages for the shootings.

  2. Late riser@10:34am
    That is roughly 45% women voting LNP on 2PP.
    That is what I mentioned yesterday. So where is Women problem for LNP even though they have only 22% parliamentarians as women. LNP knows this & hence they treat women parliamentarians like they do.
    Also, they got 1 seat majority in 2016 federal elections only because of woman MP. How? LNP won only 1 seat from ALP in 2016 i.e. Julia Banks seat of Chisolm. Still they treat women as they do because they know 45% women vote for them anyway

  3. Bernard Keane
    ‏Verified account @BernardKeane
    28s28 seconds ago

    Bernard Keane Retweeted Paul Brown

    Failed WA Nationals MP Paul Brown resorts to misogynist abuse to defend live exports.

  4. daretotread @ 12.57pm

    I think you may be thinking of another. I was with the Attorney-General’s dept in Canberra for many years, taking (very) early retirement in 1999. Although I have voted Labor all my adult life, I’ve never been a party member. Not really sure why. Probably too shy and retiring. 🙂

  5. Michael Koziol
    ‏Verified account @michaelkoziol
    2m2 minutes ago

    This is awkward. Public Service Commissioner John Lloyd is flat out refusing to say whether he is under investigation over his relationship with the IPA #estimates

  6. Ven @ #600 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 1:58 pm

    Late riser@10:34am
    That is roughly 45% women voting LNP on 2PP.
    That is what I mentioned yesterday. So where is Women problem for LNP even though they have only 22% parliamentarians as women. LNP knows this & hence they treat women parliamentarians like they do.
    Also, they got 1 seat majority in 2016 federal elections only because of woman MP. How? LNP won only 1 seat from ALP in 2016 i.e. Julia Banks seat of Chisolm. Still they treat women as they do because they know 45% women vote for them anyway

    I am hoping to see if there will be a change in the next Newspoll or Ipsos, since the increased attention given to the proportion of women in the L-NP. But given the ‘natural’ swings in the proportions published by William it would have to be a big shift to be unambiguous. Also a small difference can count for a lot. That is, the difference between 49% (lose) and 51% (win) is only a 1% swing.

  7. a r @ #588 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 1:25 pm

    I like how the journalist proclaims it a “valuable lesson” for Trump, as if Trump is the sort of person who learns things.

    This journalist analyses why that will never be so:

    With North Korea and other challenges, President Trump can succeed where others have failed, we are told, because he is so unpredictable.

    In fact, he is proving to be the most predictable of presidents.

    He is predictable because he makes decisions based on instincts and biases, many acquired decades ago. Advisers can delay but not dislodge him from his ruts. He is proving impervious to fact, argument or new learning of any kind.

    Since his prejudices are well-known, his decisions should not surprise.

    What are these predispositions? Allied nations, and especially Japan, play the United States for a chump. Dictators are strong and decisive and therefore to be admired. Immigrants and people of color are suspect. Wealthy people usually know best, while intellectuals are not to be trusted. Trade deficits are the ultimate sign of national weakness, and manufacturing is the linchpin of any economy. Anything Barack Obama did should be undone.

    That canon of gut feelings can explain most of what Trump has done — and predict what he will do.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-proving-to-be-the-most-predictable-of-presidents/2018/05/20/694ec8dc-5ab3-11e8-8836-a4a123c359ab_story.html?utm_term=.57f6c1d80f88

  8. Simon² Katich® @ #537 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:12 am

    FYI for those writing equations and temperatures.

    Hold the ALT key down and type 0178 = ²
    as in 9.8m/s² – a number which of course differs depending on where you are in relation to the geoid (the global equipotential surface) if you reference it to the gravity potential that equates to 9.8… IIRC.

    Hold the ALT key down and type 0176 = °
    as in the temperature never gets above 12°C in the freezing miserable winters in the shadow of Mount Lofty.

    Just think of it as 285K!!!

    It’s 305K here!!! 🙂

  9. I thought that was an Anglican Church and Anglicans are not into the cult of Mary.

    Yes. No. Anglicans do the Hail Mary.

  10. Barney in Go Dau @ #611 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 2:18 pm

    Simon² Katich® @ #537 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:12 am

    FYI for those writing equations and temperatures.

    Hold the ALT key down and type 0178 = ²
    as in 9.8m/s² – a number which of course differs depending on where you are in relation to the geoid (the global equipotential surface) if you reference it to the gravity potential that equates to 9.8… IIRC.

    Hold the ALT key down and type 0176 = °
    as in the temperature never gets above 12°C in the freezing miserable winters in the shadow of Mount Lofty.

    Just think of it as 285K!!!

    It’s 305K here!!! 🙂

    298K here. 🙂

  11. “Rachel Maddow revisits the history of Richard Nixon trying to use the IRS to audit his personal political enemies and notes the parallels with Donald Trump’s attempt to punish Amazon with higher postal rates”

    I would have recommended ‘Slow Burn’ but I’m guessing Rachel kinda summarised that.

    Trump is used to the law being a tool he uses against others, he has no comprehension of it being a negotiated moral line in the sand, nor of it as something that ever prevented him from doing whatever he wanted. He is basically a third rate mobster and trying to run the whitehouse like a mafia headquarters. Any comparison to Nixon is well unkind to Nixon who was quite a lot smarter and quite a lot better president.

    But I take her point.

  12. C@tmomma @ #609 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 2:15 pm

    a r @ #588 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 1:25 pm

    I like how the journalist proclaims it a “valuable lesson” for Trump, as if Trump is the sort of person who learns things.

    This journalist analyses why that will never be so:

    With North Korea and other challenges, President Trump can succeed where others have failed, we are told, because he is so unpredictable.

    In fact, he is proving to be the most predictable of presidents.

    He is predictable because he makes decisions based on instincts and biases, many acquired decades ago. Advisers can delay but not dislodge him from his ruts. He is proving impervious to fact, argument or new learning of any kind.

    Since his prejudices are well-known, his decisions should not surprise.

    What are these predispositions? Allied nations, and especially Japan, play the United States for a chump. Dictators are strong and decisive and therefore to be admired. Immigrants and people of color are suspect. Wealthy people usually know best, while intellectuals are not to be trusted. Trade deficits are the ultimate sign of national weakness, and manufacturing is the linchpin of any economy. Anything Barack Obama did should be undone.

    That canon of gut feelings can explain most of what Trump has done — and predict what he will do.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-proving-to-be-the-most-predictable-of-presidents/2018/05/20/694ec8dc-5ab3-11e8-8836-a4a123c359ab_story.html?utm_term=.57f6c1d80f88

    The tactic that is also predictable is that whenever bad news is imminent for him or hsi family then there is a major pre-emptive distraction.

  13. A controversial Australian marine scientist who rejects research showing major human-caused impacts on the Great Barrier Reef has been fired from Queensland’s James Cook University for alleged multiple breaches of its code of conduct.

    Peter Ridd was fired on 2 May, according to the termination letter posted on Ridd’s website, after ignoring previous warnings and disciplinary action from the university.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/21/university-fires-controversial-marine-scientist-for-alleged-conduct-breaches?CMP=soc_568

  14. Emma Alberici tweets

    The #BankingRC today heard that 97.5% of all Australian businesses have less than 20 employees. They are predominantly in construction, farming and fisheries. 80% of all small business lending is secured by real estate

    Edit: Maybe the way we should define small business should change for tax purposes.

  15. Libs showing how thin skinned they are. Not OK to call Mal “arrogant & out of touch” but OK to call Shorten “shifty”.

  16. Wow Turnbull is desperate going back to the already discredited grannies need to fear rhetoric. Or maybe the arrogant out of touch is getting to him

  17. Michael Koziol
    ‏Verified account @michaelkoziol
    5h5 hours ago

    Tony Abbott says it’s the government’s job “to get rid of undesirable people in our midst who do bad things” and laments that courts and tribunals are “always seeming to get in the way of what the government was elected to do” #auspol

  18. Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    48m48 minutes ago

    what a disgrace – “homeless youths are being left out in the cold due to tough Centrelink rules requiring welfare recipients to have a fixed address”

  19. Zoidlord @ #627 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 2:42 pm

    Michael Koziol
    ‏Verified account @michaelkoziol
    5h5 hours ago

    Tony Abbott says it’s the government’s job “to get rid of undesirable people in our midst who do bad things” and laments that courts and tribunals are “always seeming to get in the way of what the government was elected to do” #auspol

    Hang on. You can’t get Australian citizenship (as an immigrant) without knowing certain basic things about Australia.

    I think you shouldn’t be able to be the PM or an MP of Australia without knowing certain basic things about separation of powers and the rule of law. That seems fair; the bar is clearly set too low currently.

  20. Shorten_Suite

    ‏ @Shorten_Suite
    2m2 minutes ago

    .@cpyne in #qt complaining about “secret agreements”.

    Also @cpyne:

    #auspol

  21. Michael Koziol tweets

    Penny Wong is not accepting this. “I know it’s embarrassing for you but you don’t actually have the option to say ‘I’m not going to talk about it’.” #estimates

  22. this staged shot of all the available Lib MPs should get the David Attenborough treatment.

    “If the females of the pride don’t mate with the Alpha male, then the species is doomed to extinction”.

  23. Not to be that person but Michelle Landry is LNP and sits in the Nats party room. Not the Liberal……

  24. So if Turnbull loses the election,Joyce and Abbott could become LOTOs.
    Bring it on.These 2 losers will never be trusted again.

  25. PETER VAN ONSELEN
    If Malcolm Turnbull loses the next election, the Coalition may return to Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce for leadership.

  26. WeWantPaul @ #587 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 1:24 pm

    “It seems Magistrates are simply unaccountable for their daft decisions.”

    If you ignore the rest of the Court system, yeah magistrates are unaccountable …. although having said that I think there are some sentences / criminal matters that aren’t open to appeal, but it is a long time since I studied criminal or civil procedure.

    Oh yes, the Cartel welcomes appeals. So much more money for the lawyers. And of course no guarantee of sanity in the higher court.

  27. Greg Jericho tweets

    #qt is an example of what happens when people think they have so much wit they only need to use half of it

  28. guytaur @ #624 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 2:32 pm

    Emma Alberici tweets

    The #BankingRC today heard that 97.5% of all Australian businesses have less than 20 employees. They are predominantly in construction, farming and fisheries. 80% of all small business lending is secured by real estate

    Edit: Maybe the way we should define small business should change for tax purposes.

    You would think that a journalist would know when to use ‘fewer’ rather than ‘less’.

  29. Tomorrow I’ll be asking #Estimates about Dutton’s claim that people were “too scared” to go to restaurants in Melbourne. What’s the scariest thing that happened to you at a restaurant in the last few months?Problems with paywave? Soup too hot? Ran out of the daily special?— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) May 21, 2018

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