The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.
The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:
It’s misleading because they’ve actually allocated 3 pages to the wedding (or 4 if you count the cover page), versus 2 pages for the shootings.
Late riser@10:34am
That is roughly 45% women voting LNP on 2PP.
That is what I mentioned yesterday. So where is Women problem for LNP even though they have only 22% parliamentarians as women. LNP knows this & hence they treat women parliamentarians like they do.
Also, they got 1 seat majority in 2016 federal elections only because of woman MP. How? LNP won only 1 seat from ALP in 2016 i.e. Julia Banks seat of Chisolm. Still they treat women as they do because they know 45% women vote for them anyway
LU
Iboih Inn. Where your front doorstep is this….
Bernard Keane
Verified account @BernardKeane
28s28 seconds ago
Bernard Keane Retweeted Paul Brown
Failed WA Nationals MP Paul Brown resorts to misogynist abuse to defend live exports.
Happy to be corrected, SK!
LU
‘cold ones’ in Banda Aceh were a no-no. Thankfully Pulau Weh offered plenty of relief.
daretotread @ 12.57pm
I think you may be thinking of another. I was with the Attorney-General’s dept in Canberra for many years, taking (very) early retirement in 1999. Although I have voted Labor all my adult life, I’ve never been a party member. Not really sure why. Probably too shy and retiring. 🙂
Tony Abbott and company won’t be happy
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/20/pope-juan-carlos-cruz?CMP=share_btn_tw
Greensborough Growler @ #561 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 12:48 pm
I thought that was an Anglican Church and Anglicans are not into the cult of Mary.
Michael Koziol
Verified account @michaelkoziol
2m2 minutes ago
This is awkward. Public Service Commissioner John Lloyd is flat out refusing to say whether he is under investigation over his relationship with the IPA #estimates
Ven @ #600 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 1:58 pm
I am hoping to see if there will be a change in the next Newspoll or Ipsos, since the increased attention given to the proportion of women in the L-NP. But given the ‘natural’ swings in the proportions published by William it would have to be a big shift to be unambiguous. Also a small difference can count for a lot. That is, the difference between 49% (lose) and 51% (win) is only a 1% swing.
a r @ #588 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 1:25 pm
This journalist analyses why that will never be so:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-proving-to-be-the-most-predictable-of-presidents/2018/05/20/694ec8dc-5ab3-11e8-8836-a4a123c359ab_story.html?utm_term=.57f6c1d80f88
Simon² Katich® @ #537 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:12 am
Just think of it as 285K!!!
It’s 305K here!!! 🙂
C@t
Plus coal = good.
Yes. No. Anglicans do the Hail Mary.
Plus
guns = good
God’s Mum, after all.
Barney in Go Dau @ #611 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 2:18 pm
298K here. 🙂
What of wealthy intellectuals, I wonder?
“Rachel Maddow revisits the history of Richard Nixon trying to use the IRS to audit his personal political enemies and notes the parallels with Donald Trump’s attempt to punish Amazon with higher postal rates”
I would have recommended ‘Slow Burn’ but I’m guessing Rachel kinda summarised that.
Trump is used to the law being a tool he uses against others, he has no comprehension of it being a negotiated moral line in the sand, nor of it as something that ever prevented him from doing whatever he wanted. He is basically a third rate mobster and trying to run the whitehouse like a mafia headquarters. Any comparison to Nixon is well unkind to Nixon who was quite a lot smarter and quite a lot better president.
But I take her point.
C@tmomma @ #609 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 2:15 pm
The tactic that is also predictable is that whenever bad news is imminent for him or hsi family then there is a major pre-emptive distraction.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/21/university-fires-controversial-marine-scientist-for-alleged-conduct-breaches?CMP=soc_568
a r,
I’ll just go and ask my thoroughbred unicorn…
WWP
All I can say in reply to that post Is Yes I agree.
Emma Alberici tweets
The #BankingRC today heard that 97.5% of all Australian businesses have less than 20 employees. They are predominantly in construction, farming and fisheries. 80% of all small business lending is secured by real estate
Edit: Maybe the way we should define small business should change for tax purposes.
Libs showing how thin skinned they are. Not OK to call Mal “arrogant & out of touch” but OK to call Shorten “shifty”.
Wow Turnbull is desperate going back to the already discredited grannies need to fear rhetoric. Or maybe the arrogant out of touch is getting to him
Michael Koziol
Verified account @michaelkoziol
5h5 hours ago
Tony Abbott says it’s the government’s job “to get rid of undesirable people in our midst who do bad things” and laments that courts and tribunals are “always seeming to get in the way of what the government was elected to do” #auspol
Bevan Shields tweets
AMAZING shot by @ellinghausen just now. Picture shows all the female members of the Liberal Party in the House of Representatives. Just Julie Bishop and Karen Andrews missing. Four of the women in this picture are facing pre-selection speculation/battles #auspol https://twitter.com/BevanShields/status/998421283611136000/photo/1
Josh Butler
Verified account @JoshButler
48m48 minutes ago
what a disgrace – “homeless youths are being left out in the cold due to tough Centrelink rules requiring welfare recipients to have a fixed address”
Zoidlord @ #627 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 2:42 pm
Hang on. You can’t get Australian citizenship (as an immigrant) without knowing certain basic things about Australia.
I think you shouldn’t be able to be the PM or an MP of Australia without knowing certain basic things about separation of powers and the rule of law. That seems fair; the bar is clearly set too low currently.
Shorten_Suite
@Shorten_Suite
2m2 minutes ago
.@cpyne in #qt complaining about “secret agreements”.
Also @cpyne:
#auspol
BOATS!
Michael Koziol tweets
Penny Wong is not accepting this. “I know it’s embarrassing for you but you don’t actually have the option to say ‘I’m not going to talk about it’.” #estimates
Tony Abbott has well and truly left the reservation, in search of a plot he has lost.
this staged shot of all the available Lib MPs should get the David Attenborough treatment.
“If the females of the pride don’t mate with the Alpha male, then the species is doomed to extinction”.
MH
Nah its unions are criminal
Not to be that person but Michelle Landry is LNP and sits in the Nats party room. Not the Liberal……
So if Turnbull loses the election,Joyce and Abbott could become LOTOs.
Bring it on.These 2 losers will never be trusted again.
PETER VAN ONSELEN
If Malcolm Turnbull loses the next election, the Coalition may return to Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce for leadership.
C@tmomma @ #634 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 2:49 pm
And if he is serious about getting rid of undesirables who do bad things, he should turn his mind to imploding.
That photo!
All window dressing and no window.
WeWantPaul @ #587 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 1:24 pm
Oh yes, the Cartel welcomes appeals. So much more money for the lawyers. And of course no guarantee of sanity in the higher court.
Greg Jericho tweets
#qt is an example of what happens when people think they have so much wit they only need to use half of it
guytaur @ #624 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 2:32 pm
You would think that a journalist would know when to use ‘fewer’ rather than ‘less’.
Amy Remeikis nominates Scott Morrison as the Gretchen Wieners of the Australian Parliament.
http://meangirls.wikia.com/wiki/Gretchen_Wieners
Simon² Katich® @ #614 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 2:19 pm
This former Anglican never once experienced it.
Guardian Australia tweets
Alan Jones case: broadcaster tells court he had ‘no scientific evidence’ for claims https://trib.al/O0n5f8A