BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

No change in voting intention, but Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is at its strongest in nearly two years.

The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.

The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

872 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

  1. Amy covers a question to Scrott. Those who saw the movie might like to expand on the Gretchen Weiner reference.

    Jim Chalmers to Scott Morrison:

    What is the total cost of corporate tax cuts over 10 years from 1 July this year both legislated and proposed to be legislated, by this government?

    Morrison:

    WORDS, LOUD WORDS, LOUDER WORDS, LOTS OF EXPOSITION FOR A RHETORICAL POINT HE MAKES ALL THE TIME, MORE LOUD WORDS, BAD PUN, WITHDRAW

    ““…If the Labor Party were ever to occupy these benches, what would be the single biggest revenue earner over the budget and forward estimates if the Shadow……………………………………………. And that’s the story of how Scott Morrison became the Gretchen Weiner of the Australian parliament.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/may/21/government-backbenchers-push-ahead-with-live-export-ban-politics-live

  2. Poroti

    Earlier in the day Amy Remeikis compared ‘Unbelieva-bill” to “Fetch” in that its not going to happen.

  3. An off topic question for anyone who has a good grasp of grammar. I’m pretty good at it myself but I’m not sure about this.

    Which of the following two is correct:

    If I were ever to go to England, or

    If I was ever to go to England.

    Is the ‘were’ or the ‘was’ correct in this context?

  4. Darn,

    Tough one, I don’t know the rule, only the usage:

    If I was, or he or she was, or even it was ever to go to England…

    But if you were, or even, perchance, we were to go together to England…

    I think, until someone corrects me.

  5. Darn,

    If you believe in prescriptive grammar, “were” is the correct form of the subjunctive. You can tell this by re-arranging the sentence to read, “Were I ever to go to England”. That is, you wouldn’t say, “Was I ever to go to England”.

    From a descriptive point of view, on the other hand, most people these days replace the subjunctive with the form of the past tense, and thus “was” is acceptable.

    The subjunctive is an endangered species in English.

  6. Josh Taylor
    ‏Verified account @joshgnosis
    19m19 minutes ago

    Public Service Commissioner John Lloyd dragging out answering whether he’s under investigation, and then seeing whether he can make a public interest immunity claim to refuse to comment just made it way more interesting. #estimates

  7. “Oh yes, the Cartel welcomes appeals. So much more money for the lawyers. And of course no guarantee of sanity in the higher court.”

    I have never worked out where your hate of lawyers comes from, bad divorce perhaps, but man it comes from a deep place. But, and I feel I need a shower, I agree with you on the higher courts not necessarily being ‘better’, they are almost by definition more institutional, more inside.

    I don’t know about you clowns on the other side of the Nullarbor ocean and there is a wide range but generally in WA the next Court level up knows who are the ‘rogue’ Magistrates and who are the poor Magistrates, and those Magistrates are readily overturned.

    I know one magistrate, retired, who prided himself on being overturned, he did ‘justice’ Lord Denning style and didn’t care if he was overturned. Clearly doing justice Lord Denning style in a lowest level court is fraught.

  8. Poroti

    The Sydney Anglicans are the more conservative branch of Anglicanism. The rest of the country appears to be more liberal. For instance, our PB and social media favourite Father Rob Bower in Gosford Anglican is very liberal for a priest where as you’d be hard to find a similar priest in the Sydney set.

  9. Boerwar @ #659 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 3:26 pm

    GG
    That photo shows over 50% of female Liberal MPs and less than 2% of male Liberal MPs.

    From Remeikis again:

    In case you didn’t notice it in question time (and honestly, it was as subtle as a sledgehammer) Labor had as many women as possible stand up during question time.

    Anyone would think they were making a point about gender representation in parliament. On the other side of the chamber, a group of the coalition’s (much, much smaller) pool of women MPs walked in around the same time as the prime minister.

    BINDERS FULL OF WOMEN

  10. poroti @ #657 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 3:25 pm

    bemused

    Aren’t some parts of the Anglican church are fairly ‘Catholic’ ? ( High Anglican ?) They could have it.

    The ‘High Church’ is what I experienced. Bell sand smells and all that stuff, but I never once heard a Hail Mary that I recall.
    The other part is the Evangelicals. Even worse IMHO.
    Mike Carlton use to write some hilarious columns on the Sydney Evangelicals.

  11. If you want non-fence sitting, I can tell you I think prescriptive grammar is a crock. I only learn about it on a know-your-enemy basis. But when someone asks “Which is right…?”, that’s usually what they’re asking about.

  12. WeWantPaul @ #662 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 3:27 pm

    “Oh yes, the Cartel welcomes appeals. So much more money for the lawyers. And of course no guarantee of sanity in the higher court.”

    I have never worked out where your hate of lawyers comes from, bad divorce perhaps, but man it comes from a deep place. But, and I feel I need a shower, I agree with you on the higher courts not necessarily being ‘better’, they are almost by definition more institutional, more inside.

    I don’t know about you clowns on the other side of the Nullarbor ocean and there is a wide range but generally in WA the next Court level up knows who are the ‘rogue’ Magistrates and who are the poor Magistrates, and those Magistrates are readily overturned.

    I know one magistrate, retired, who prided himself on being overturned, he did ‘justice’ Lord Denning style and didn’t care if he was overturned. Clearly doing justice Lord Denning style in a lowest level court is fraught.

    Well I did have a divorce but my ex and I were smart enough not to go anywhere a lawyer.

    I have had a few experiences with courts where Magistrates just seemed to be self-important dim-wits, and one experience with a Coroners’ Court where the Coroner seemed to be asleep on occasions and the only fact required for a death certificate that she got correct was the name of the deceased!

    I have also watched a few cases I wasn’t involved in and seem a similar level of stupidity on display.

  13. Penny Wong is basically calling Public Service Commissioner John Lloyd partisan and saying that he should resign. Really narrowing in on conversations between the Commissioner and his former employer…..The IPA.

  14. Thanks LU for the answer several pages ago, can’t remember who it was saying the new coal power plants in India and China had less than 20 years in them.

    On the other hand people, who should know better, still talk of ‘baseload’ and coal lasting in a significant way another 50 years or more.

  15. Ides of March.

    It is not liberal vs conservative just some have retained a number of features/rituals of the catholic church. The Sydney Anglican church are in a different category waaay over ‘there’ somewhere.

  16. Poroti

    Point taken.

    I wager that John Lloyd’s head may be in the offing. Just like Hadgkiss in the Fair Work Commission. He is absolutely falling apart in estimates under pressure from the indomitable Penny Wong.

  17. WWP,

    In Texas, a few <10yo coal plants have been shut down this year due to the amount of cheap and successfully-integrated wind.

  18. Liberal Senator @DeanSmithWA on the by-elections: Politics is about three things; consistency, conviction and momentum. Against every one of those measurements we fail by not contesting in the Perth by-election.

    ‘I think we can win it.’

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2BuFqi1 #Speers

  19. Ides of March

    It woild not be much ‘fun’ being sent out to stonewall ‘The Wongster” .It is not all grim at estimates though.

    Over in communications estimates, Richard Di Natale and Simon Birmingham have had a little fun.

    Di Natale just asked Birmingham whether or not he watched the ABC:

    “Yes, but don’t tell my colleagues,” he answered.

    That sound you hear is Eric Abetz running down the hallway to the senate committee rooms.

  20. Arguments don’t get much more circular than this, surely — the Speaker consulted the AEC, who advised him that Parliament is going to introduce new processes around S44, and that, as Parliament can’t introduce these within the required timeframe, the by elections can’t be scheduled until Parliament does. Meanwhile, the Speaker will continue to consult with the AEC, who will continue to wait for Parliament to act.

  21. zoomster @ #686 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 4:15 pm

    Arguments don’t get much more circular than this, surely — the Speaker consulted the AEC, who advised him that Parliament is going to introduce new processes around S44, and that, as Parliament can’t introduce these within the required timeframe, the by elections can’t be scheduled until Parliament does. Meanwhile, the Speaker will continue to consult with the AEC, who will continue to wait for Parliament to act.

    Looks like the Libs are going to milk having a majority for all they can get in the HOR. Labor could raise the ante by going after the undocumented 14 in the Liberal Party ranks!

  22. What did Penny Wong say?
    Amy R: Listening to Penny Wong in estimates as she talks John Lloyd through his previous (non) answers and all I can say is I am so glad I will never be in the position of one of her children coming home late as a teenager, because wow

  23. GG – But they have already got a majority. Something else is going on. Can’t find good candidates? Want to give Malcolm the benefit of the winter break? OR keep Malcolm’s options open for a full election this year? Mmmm.

  24. Anton

    The leading LNP candidate for Longman is waiting for confirmation is he is not a dual national with PNG. Thats the issue.

  25. PvO on why he thinks a future L/NP opposition would choose Abbott and Joyce as leader and deputy:

    If the polls don’t change and Malcolm Turnbull loses the next election, there is a reasonable chance that the Coalition goes back to the future – electing Abbott and Joyce to lead their respective parties from opposition.

    It’s not as far fetched as it might sound. Both men want to rebuild their political careers. Neither is hankering to do something else with their lives. Neither of them are planning their retirement anytime soon. They are a model of the modern ageing Australia – willing to work beyond the traditional retirement age of 65.

    And let’s face it, the pair of them did their best work when last in opposition: Pouring scorn on a Labor government. Neither mastered government but they certainly know how to master the attacks necessary from opposition to be politically successful.

    https://outline.com/PjTkET

    This just shows what a hopeless position the RW parties are in.

  26. antonbruckner11 @ #692 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 4:32 pm

    GG – But they have already got a majority. Something else is going on. Can’t find good candidates? Want to give Malcolm the benefit of the winter break? OR keep Malcolm’s options open for a full election this year? Mmmm.

    Yeah, but it takes the pressure off that inadvertent losses for legislation on the floor of the House can be avoided more easily. Things like this current push over live lamb exports can be more easily managed.

    But, I don’t necessarily disagree that there are other motivations at work.

  27. IoM – Good point. This govt has had a week to lean on the New Guinea govt about that. So it’s a bit surprising it has not been sorted out.
    I would not be surprised though that if Malcolm really, really does not want to have another budget (even a mini-budget) which shows that the present one was just a load of bollocks and the debt position is in a power-dive. That means August – September.

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