The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.
The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:
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My wife’s Aunt Eileen was a resident in Tinonee gardens and I took my wife to visit now and then.
Knowing what I do now I should have gone with my wife and been visiting much more often.
I occasionally have a look at the local aged care facilities and the complaints about them.
Tinonee Gardens is a regular failer of the accreditation process.
Summary
Serious risk decision
On 4 August 2017 a delegate of the CEO of the Australian Aged Care Quality Agency made a decision that Tinonee Gardens the Multicultural Village Ltd failed to meet one of more expected outcomes in the Accreditation Standards in relation to Tinonee Gardens – The Multicultural Village and that this failure has placed, or may place, the safety, health or wellbeing of a care recipient of the service at serious risk.
Mr. Wyatt may be well intentioned, he may be amazed, astonished and appalled that many aged care residents get no visitors at all. He may be a true believer in the idea that combining three agencies, thus:-
will make a positive difference.
I suppose there are many who obtained satisfaction from the above three agences, in dealing with a complaint. There are many more who had complaints dismissed, rejected, found unsubstantiated, without merit….and so on.
I found all three agencies to be in a symbiotic relationship with the Aged Care industry. I still have very long letters advising that what was being complained of was, essentially, untrue.
Short break for musical interlude.
♫Now ladies, you must take warning
From this time ♪on and learn
♪Never speak harsh words♫♪ to your true love or husband
He may leave you and♫ never return.
This song inspired by Bemused reference to the Blues Brothers church scene.
And so, as my wife was wont to say, the Wedding Vows should be amended to read
something like.
I promise, love, devotion, care, ever and ever
and wipe and clean your body/bottom should you be unfortunate enough to be ensconced in an Aged Care Facility (of the Non-Care Variety).
I will wash and clean you, cut your fingernails.
I will read to you, sing to you and love you and call you darling.
I will fight them on the beaches ………..
I will befriend solicitors, barristers, politicians and get the dirt off them so as to be able to blackmail said spruikers to act in your defense.
And a very good morning to all.
Peace and all that. ☮
Coffee too. ☕
citizen @ #396 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:10 am
Charles is divorced. His wife Camilla is divorced. Not since Henry VIII was there such a prospect, and Henry was annulling his marriages, not divorcing his way out of them. I reckon Very Rich Betty Windsor Majestic ERII (can you imagine actually calling someone Your Majesty) and titular head of The Church would prefer to see the Crown pass directly to William.
I loved the Gospel choir, and the ranting Episcopalian.
My forebears are from Maynooth, just outside the pale, ie beyond.
@Ven – the Queen understands that Australia (and several other countries) will never bow to King Charles, or King William. Abdicating would bring the dissolution of the ‘Empire’ forward, and the Queen will never do it.
Voice Endeavour @ #402 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 6:28 am
What Empire is there to dissolve? 🙂
Abbott says AGL’s decision is a “strike against the national interest”. He then goes on to compare “companies like AGL” to “militant unions” @2GB873
Greensborough Growler @ #404 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 6:33 am
That’s beautiful!!!
By dividing business he makes it much more difficult to defend business!!!! 🙂
So are the coalition going to clarify their own s44 issues before announcing super Saturday by elections?
Well known Socialist calls for Nationalising of Private Enterprise!
http://www.afr.com/business/energy/agl-rejects-alinta-bid-will-close-liddell-in-2022-20180520-h10bb5
GG
I guess saying militant unions enough times makes it true.
When was the last time there was a really disruptive strike by any union?
Very clever move by Rosenstein in response to Trump’s Twitter tantrum and demands…
This move by Rosenstein makes it even harder for @RealDonaldTrump to fire him on false charges of insubordination; and it confirms precisely nothing that Trump would like confirmed. CF @comey “investigating” if @BarackObama “wiretapped” Trump pre-election.
VE
I think everyone dislikes Charles but there is a lot of love and respect for William. As a republican Charles is our best asset.
Ian Verrender in form….
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-21/how-our-media-folds-under-pressure-catherine-brenner-amp/9781914
Victoria @ #408 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:44 am
militant
ˈmɪlɪt(ə)nt/Submit
adjective
1.
favouring confrontational or violent methods in support of a political or social cause.
“the army are in conflict with militant groups”
synonyms: aggressive, violent, belligerent, bellicose, assertive, pushy, vigorous, forceful, active, ultra-active, fierce, combative, pugnacious;
Militant would be far better applied to the likes of Abbott, associated political parties, and members.
Victoria @ #409 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 7:46 am
What “move” was this?
Itzadream
Agreed
Dan G
Look at statement linked above by Rosenstein
Dan G
Look at statement linked above by Rosenstein
Simon² Katich® @ #411 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:46 am
Poor little rich girl. Makes me puke.
These people are more employees than franchisees, be a good test case to take on.
The franchisor directs them as to what food/drink items it can sell, it sets the prices, it directs them as to what suppliers it can buy from and sets the buying costs. It directs them on how the stores are run, it directs them on operational and budget matters. Significantly it also directs them on how many hours to work and sets rosters.
Models like this are similar to taxi models where the driver leases the cab and accepts all the risks but these franchisees risk a lot more.
It is like Howard’s work choices applied to franchisees.
[Mr Mirza says Foodco’s business model is fake, its labour costs “a mathematical impossibility” and that Foodco expects all franchisees work for free.
“I have been sent multiple rosters officially where myself and my wife have been rostered to work anywhere from 50 to 83 hours per week each, for zero pay, if I ever want to see any profit,” he says.]
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/immoral-and-illegal-inquiry-warns-against-threats-to-muffin-break-and-jamaica-blue-franchisees-20180518-p4zg6a.html
Voice and Ven
I was thinking a little on the wedding and the Monarchy
Yes the Queen does not regard Charles well (or understands that the public is not ready for him) but by welcoming Meaghan and her mother it seems possible that Charlie and Camilla have cemented in a popular base amongst the black community. Camilla’s warm words about meaghan wil have resonated and Charles may have won a few supporters by deliberately taking Meaghan’ mother’s hand while exiting the church.
As an eccentric old codger I think the whole hatred for Charles will disappear and he will have a short but successful reign.
I think the Queen may be getting ready to abdicate or at least to hand over more duties to Charles. Mind you she can entertain Mahatir and find a HoS older than herself.
Somehow I see the Queen abdicating when Charles is 75. He will reign for 10 years maximum then hand over to William who would then be about 50.
As soon as Charlie’s eldest son reached about 16 years of age, some commentators began calling for the crown to skip a generation in order to “reinvigorate” the monarchy. Which, translated, meant Will was younger and better looking than his father. If Will’s youngest reaches 16 while Betty still hasn’t dropped off the perch, we can expect calls for the crown to skip two generations.
I read a reference in the Fairfax media to an article in The Oz where apparently Pauline H is threatening to give preferences to Labor in key marginal seats in the upcoming by-elections because the Coalition won’t do a deal with her. If thats the case, Newspoll would have to change its Coalition/PHON nexus methodology again. How would that pan out in forthcoming NewsPolls?
If that report is true,and The Oz is not just beating a story up, the Coalition could be seriously contemplating a change of heart.
Alternatively, smarter heads in the Coalition may be reasoning that the PHON impact is over and its far-right supporters are maybe going back to the Coalition/ LNP, so who gives a proverbial….
We shall see.
Lizzie @ 6.00am
A very entertaining article, thank you for posting it. The premise of Harry’s brother only being a future king because….. etc is not strictly correct, however, as it is highly unlikely, although not impossible, that Edward and Wallis would have had children even had he been allowed to marry and keep the throne. A probable scenario would have been that George VI would still have died when he did – he was always a heavy smoker, although one could argue that the stress of being king during the war may have helped shorten his life – so Elizabeth would still have been queen on the death of Edward VIII. She was the heiress presumptive even before her father became king.
a r @ 9.23m
I’d be interested to know how her relinquishing the throne would have affected anyone else in society. She doesn’t exactly “rule” these days and the monarchy in the UK hasn’t for some time now. I’m happy for Australia to become a republic in due course but the system of government in the UK is up to the UK. Currently they, like us and several other nations, are a constitutional monarchy. She couldn’t just step down and abolish the monarchy on her own, abdication would just pass the role on to Charles. Parliament would have to abolish the monarchy, as you well know. In any case, Philip is on record as saying that if the people no longer want a monarchy then so be it, so I don’t think she is clinging to power as you imply.
BW,
How do you like the sound of an RC into Franchising and Sham Contracting?
Tar them with the same brush.
Dan G
It was DOJ statement posted by fess on previous page
Ante M
There was a helluva lot of politics in the whole hate Charles stuff, led by Tony Blair. He presumably saw it as a way to boost parliament a relatively against the Monarchy.
Thanks vic.
I’m loving all these insights into Betty’s mind.
I didn’t know we had such well connected PBers!!!! 🙂
LU
We have a pile of RCs for Labor to set up when next in government. Not sure all of them will be able to run.
Ides of March not.logged in @ #428 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:05 am
I’d imagine the next Labor government will be looking forward and not be bogged in Governing through the rear view mirror.
I get a bit fed up with the eulogizing of Wallis Simpson. She was too close (in possibly many ways) with the German Ambassador at a time when it was obvious war was coming. Along with Edward she was a Nazi sympathiser.
Had Edward VI not abdicated the history of Europe and the world would have been very different. Germany would have controlled most of eastern Europe, there would have been war AGAINST Russia with the UK and probably the US involved. Along with Japan. Russia could probably not have withstood this joint attack and would have been dismembered, but possibly a large resistance movement would have emerged. The US and Japan would have seized the Siberian oil reserves. Japan would have seized most of China.
Britain would have kept her empire for much longer eg Singapore and Malaysia and probably India.
Barney in Go Dau @ #427 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 10:03 am
Barney, she’s an open book, clearly.
Ides,
There sure is! But I’d focus on franchising and related forms of sham contracting, because it is such a scam in this country, and has been for more than a decade.
(My Dad copped a rotten deal on what I now see as a sham contract for years, but felt he had little option but to make the most of it. That was though the 90s until he retired mid-2000’s.)
Exploitative practices are rife throughout many small business sectors – not just retail services and hospitality, but highly-skilled professions such as pharmacy and optometry, and not to forget daycare. Sometimes its the end worker copping the rotten deal, sometimes it’s also the small business owner caught in the middle. The big company that is pulling the strings always profits.
There’s a swag of nominally LNP voters, i.e. small businesses, that Labor can pitch to with this particular line of enquiry.
Good Morning
ABC 24 is showing Sussan Ley introducing her Bill to ban live exports
Political Alert tweets
Greens @AdamBandt has introduced Fair Work Amendment (Making Australia More Equal) Bill 2018 http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;page=0;query=BillId%3Ar6041%20Recstruct%3Abillhome #auspol
Itza
Betty is starting to look old and tired and a bit wobbly. She looked a bit tired in your picture.
Mind you if she can hang on 20 years they could skip two generations and a prince and install Betty’s – double the tiny tot Charlotte, who already looks the part.
Barnaby has had something to say about the AGL decision!
Guess what he doesn’t like it!!!! 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/may/21/government-backbenchers-push-ahead-with-live-export-ban-politics-live
Its great that the Parliamentary day is starting with what looks like a defeat. There are enough Liberals defecting to defeat the National Party with Labor and Crossbench support to see the end of Live Exports.
No wonder Turnbull doesn’t want parliament sitting.
Dan Zifter tweets
1000s of submissions to #bankingRC. The key concerns for #smallbiz?
1. Lax assessment of credit risks
2. Having to put homes as security
3. New conditions imposed, later
4. Default for ‘non-monetary’ reasons. (Making all payments but loans defaulted)
5. Unfair dispute resolution https://twitter.com/danziffer/status/998359103272509441/photo/1
Barney in Go Dau @ #398 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:20 am
It is playing in a window on my screen since yesterday. When I think how far the camera is from the action those plumes must be quite something. Counting how many seconds it takes for the chunks to fall, 4-5 seconds, hmm. What was the equation again?
The assumption that “we have seen nothing yet” from the RC now to look at aspects of bank lending and recovery of those debts by the methods employed is correct
I have attended a submission to the RC as a long since retired former senior banker – going to the abilities of those employed by banks and therefore the culture, since deregulation and continuing
I included the relationships between legal practices, accounting practices and Valuation firms and bankers in regards appointments to loan foreclosure – a sought after revenue stream for those appointed
There is an engraciation practice thru Corporate hospitality
Particularly, a couple of years back, I was asked to assist where Bank of Queensland had lent to a serial convicted criminal from the mortgage originating business immediately following his release from a 7 year jail sentence
The lending, introduced thru a broker, went the only way it was ever going to go
The chronological order from initial proceedings to (again) Bankrupt the criminal borrower to the settlement of the subject property following the Mortgagee Auction are on the public record
But the bankruptcy proceedings were stalled and a Deed of Forbearance entered into between the bank and the criminal borrower
Correspondence confirms that the reason for this was that the criminal borrower had said that his Mother had a terminal condition and he was (correctly) a 1/3rd beneficiary of and Estate resultant upon her death
So Bank of Queensland, under legal advice lay in wait for the death of the Mother
The Mother for her part had told her 2 daughters (who cared for her in the family home and who were estranged from the brother) that she had hoped the period in jail had resulted in a changed character in the criminal brother but if it had not she would revisit her Will
This was not the issue for the 2 daughters who are both of independent means
What was of issue was that immediately upon the death of their Mother and the advertising of the Grant of Probate solicitors acting for Bank of Queensland proceeded to bankrupt the criminal borrower and served on the Executor for the Deceased Estate
8 months AFTER the date of the Deed of Forbearance
The chronological order confirms Bank of Queensland sat in wait for 8 months waiting fir the death of the Mother and then the Grant of Probate
This added a level of distress to the daughters over and above the loss of their Mother
Bank of Queensland introduced the matter to the Supreme Court – and proceedings dragged on at cost pending the statutory 6 months for distributions
The Estate was to the order of $450,000-
Legal costs to the Estate of the Bankrupt ( instructing from Queensland to Melbourne) were to the order of $70,000- impacting on Unsecured Creditors with only the Bank of Queensland debt satisfied (no doubt including penalty interest rate imposts and bank charges whilst the bank awaited the passing of the Mother).
The presiding Judge queried the amount of the Estate, the legal costs (Bank of Queensland could not respond) and why this matter was before his Court
There was no application for the costs to Bank of Queensland to be met by the Estate of the Deceased
The Estate of the Deceased were responsible for their own costs, to the order of $30,000- (so $15,000- for each beneficiary which was not the issue and never was the issue)
The issue was the tactic of the bank, deliberately sitting in wait for the death of a Mother of an individual THEY had lent to, regardless of his criminal record
The bank approved the lending, then looking for recovery relied on the Personal Covenant clauses in the Mortgage document as their strategy as they did
This is a matter of Bank ethics
These are the stories that will hopefully see the light of day now before this RC
The banks use a position of privilege – then act as they do providing rivers if gold revenue to legal, accounting and valuation practitioners and where the bankers avail of hospitality to so appoint
The victims are the Unsecured Creditors
The victims are those grieving the loss of a loved one, then unsuspectingly involved in protracted legal proceedings courtesy of Bank of Queensland deliberately laying in wait ahead of a death
Bank of Queensland defended to the Banking Ombudsman that the Estate of the Deceased was not a client of the bank and could not bring forward a complaint
ASIC and APRA both noted and responded that they would act if further such conduct was reported to them
These are the events that need to come out now, and there will be a plethora of them identifying an unsupportable culture
The legal consequence is as it may technically be
It is the ethics of the bank and the culture of the bank which are under question
Akin to Insider Trading – and the banks have deep pockets in all such matters
Another great thing is to see AGL standing up to the bullying of the government.
Two big defeats for them today if Ley’s bill passes.
The long term defeat of the climate denialists has just happened with business rejecting ideological bullying.
Another great thing is to see AGL standing up to the bullying of the government.
Two big defeats for them today if Ley’s bill passes.
The long term defeat of the climate denialists has just happened with business rejecting ideological bullying.
Is the House actually voting on the live trade bill or has it been simply introduced into parliament.
Late Riser @ #439 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 7:27 am
1/2 g * t^2
So approximately 5*t^2
1 second fall = 5m
2 sec =20m
3 sec = 45m
4 sec = 80m
but then you’re getting into terminal velocity territory, so things change! 🙂
allan moyes
Thank you for the most sensible post yet. I’ll be glad when Australia becomes a republic, then perhaps people won’t feel the need to insult the English so much.
Thank you again William for the link to the gender polling splits. I had a chance to look at the numbers this morning.
1) Newspoll consistently polls more women than men. The differences were: 290, 290, 290, 290, 290, 290, 234. Newspoll polled the same number of people each time (8060) except the most recent poll (6502).
2) Ipsos consistently polls more women than men. The differences were: 63, 20, 21, 96, 24, 6, 20. Ipsos polled different bumbers, from a minimum of 1098 up to a maximum of 1403.
3) More women than men favoured the L-NP on 2 occasions by 1% point and favoured the L-NP the same as men on 1 occasion. The other 10 occasions men favoured the L-NP more than women did, on average by 4% points and in one case by 10% points.
4) Of the 7 respondent allocated results only Ipsos (2018-05-13) had women favouring the L-NP at the same rate as men (47%), the other 6 times women were less favourable than men to the L-NP. (The pattern is exactly reversed for the ALP respondent allocated preferences. Maths!)
6) The most recent data is Ipsos at 2018-05-10 to 2018-05-13, which is before MP Prentice issue flared up.
Now I wait.
FWIW the Republicans seem to be winning the long term battle for the Congress in November. The generic polling is narrowing quite fast and although the democrats will win quite a few seats, the “Blue wave” seems to be receding. Mind you it s still 5 months plus away, so much can change.
The democrats have I think made a mistake with the Mueller Inquiry. It has gone on too long, the public are bored and it has shown nothing of significance.
Tie to get something fresh to actually win the elections rather than old stuff.
Now I am firmly of the view (and this applies pretty much everywhere) that ad-hominem attacks of any kind do more damage than good. There are some short term gains but then potential big losses.
Exceptions are when the attacks are funny or make the person look like an incompetent fool. Trouble is that with Trump he was elected because he was an incompetent fool, so the strategy does not really work even in the short term.
G,
Businesses like AGL don’t get bullied.
Using the term in this context weakens or dilutes its real meaning.
AGL have politely and publicly told the Govt to GAGF.
I can only speculate what they have said behind closed doors. I can only hope it was, “Thanks for the positive publicity; now GAGF.”
Ides
Ley is now doing a presser. I think it was just introduction.