BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

No change in voting intention, but Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is at its strongest in nearly two years.

The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.

The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

872 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

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  5. One Nation is threatening to ­direct preferences to Labor ahead of the ­Coalition, after the LNP rebuffed a secret Longman deal.

  8. ON are dreaming if they believe pref deals with the LNP could be kept “secret”. The success of pref-swapping depends on publicising the arrangement.

  10. steve davis says:
    Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 10:33 pm
    This is the best website for tracking gun violence in the US year to date.

    http://www.gunviolencearchive.org/
    ****************************

    That was set up and is run by a good friend of mine in Kentucky, Mark Bryant.

  13. Excellent description of the marriage in this New Yorker piece, written by a theatre critic, which seems apt.

    Emma Alberici‏Verified account @albericie

    An American divorcée married a man whose brother will only become king because of his paternal grandmother’s father, who only became king because his brother wanted to marry an American divorcée. History goes around in circles. https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/harry-and-meghan-look-to-the-future-but-some-royals-never-change … from @NewYorker

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/harry-and-meghan-look-to-the-future-but-some-royals-never-change

  14. lizzie @ #360 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 6:00 am

    Excellent description of the marriage in this New Yorker piece, written by a theatre critic, which seems apt.

    Emma Alberici‏Verified account @albericie

    An American divorcée married a man whose brother will only become king because of his paternal grandmother’s father, who only became king because his brother wanted to marry an American divorcée. History goes around in circles. https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/harry-and-meghan-look-to-the-future-but-some-royals-never-change … from @NewYorker

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/harry-and-meghan-look-to-the-future-but-some-royals-never-change

    A wonderful article. Somehow in the midst of it my time machine took me back to 1965, a bunch of drunks, including the Padre raucously bellowing such gems as the following priceless items.

    I like the girls who will,
    I like the girls who won’t,
    But most of all I like the girls
    Who say they won’t,
    But look as though they might.

    I don’t know how you find such items but I’m glad you do.

    Back to bed for me. Hooroo ❗ ☮

  15. steve davis @ #358 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 12:14 am

    The ridiculous part about it that the Libs wanted the by elections.Now they running away from them.

    They still want them, I reckon, so they can poke fun at Labor should they lose even one vote from what they received in the election in 2016. Let alone if they actually have a significant swing against them but still manage to hold onto the seat.

  16. Trump has just had a full blown Sunday twitter rant – and if the past is any indication it usually means something big/damaging is about to hit the airwaves …..

  17. Trump makes stunning ‘official demand’ on Twitter that Justice Dept investigate itself and FBI over informant

    President Donald Trump make what amounts to a formal declaration on Twitter that the Department of Justice investigate itself and the FBI over reports that an informant was part of his 2016 campaign.

    Trump made the announcement on Twitter in rather formal language, writing, “I hereby demand, and will do so officially tomorrow, that the Department of Justice look into whether or not the FBI/DOJ infiltrated or surveilled the Trump Campaign for Political Purposes – and if any such demands or requests were made by people within the Obama Administration!”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/trump-makes-stunning-official-demand-twitter-justice-dept-investigate-fbi-informant/

  18. Comey associate: Rosenstein and FBI director will quit if Trump goes through with DOJ investigation demand

    Writing on Twitter, a confidante of former FBI Director James Comey predicted high level non-compliance and resignations at the FBI and the Justice Department if President Donald Trump makes good on a Twitter threat to demand an investigation of both agencies on Monday.

    Trump made a stunning announcement on Sunday, issuing a proclamation on Twitter — of all places — complaining about an FBI informant who was tracking presidential campaign advisers Carter Page and George Papadopoulos in 2016.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/comey-associate-rosenstein-fbi-director-will-quit-trump-goes-doj-investigation-demand/

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. What a couple of weeks on front of us with Senate Estimates and a sitting of the banking royal commission!

    Fresh examples of the big banks’ irresponsible lending and overly tough loan enforcement are set to be put under the spotlight at the royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/unethical-banks-under-scrutiny-as-royal-commission-returns-20180518-p4zg38.html
    Jess Irvine reckons we ain’t seem nothin’ yet from the banking royal commission!
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/welcome-to-the-wild-wild-west-of-lending-20180520-p4zgd4.html
    Australian Banking Association chief Anna Bligh is likely to give evidence as Kenneth Hayne’s royal commission kicks off. This will make her earn her pay!
    https://outline.com/ZDdAwU
    Adele Ferguson says that the royal commission is also working to a short timeline to investigate such a complex, opaque and powerful industry. It is tearing through institution after institution at lightning speed. It needs to slow down, extend the deadline and give more victims a voice to be heard.
    https://outline.com/wfJnBd
    National Australia Bank consumer and wealth chief customer officer Andrew Hagger says executives grilled at the royal commission get no prior warning of the lines of inquiry and have very little power to shape the story that comes out.
    https://outline.com/EzbcXP
    Macquarie Bank wrongly withheld $875,000 from a Sydney couple after using “not unusual” practices that prompted allegations of forgery and misconduct. More fodder for the royal commission?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/21/macquarie-bank-withheld-875000-from-couple-after-loan-dispute
    And the NRA is eyeing 1 million more members as Texas mourns. How sensitive!
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/nra-eyes-1-million-more-members-as-texas-mourns-20180521-p4zggw.html
    The SMH editorialises over the pressing issue of stagnant wages growth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/wage-growth-a-pressing-issue-20180520-p4zgfx.html
    Morrison has confirmed a tax targeting some of the world’s largest and most popular companies is now inevitable, with Labor providing in-principle support for a crackdown on digital companies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-levy-on-digital-giants-sways-crossbench-on-tax-cuts-20180514-p4zf7b.html
    Ross Gittins urges for the parties to outlaw she’ll-be-right budget projections.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/let-s-outlaw-she-ll-be-right-budget-projections-20180520-p4zgds.html
    The Turnbull government’s personal income tax plan will face scrutiny when Parliament returns on Monday, as the Coalition scrambles to pass the entire bill by the new financial year.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/05/20/personal-income-tax-cuts-fight/
    A Queensland MP who spoke out against the dumping of Jane Prentice has been summoned to appear before the LNP’s candidate review committee in a move described by supporters as “politically stupid payback”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/21/lnps-michelle-landry-to-face-party-review-after-criticising-jane-prentice-dumping
    The Liberals have a serious women problem – and it’s time they took action to change it.
    https://theconversation.com/the-liberals-have-a-serious-women-problem-and-its-time-they-took-action-to-change-it-96643
    A nation of shoplifters: the rise of supermarket self-checkout scams.
    https://www.theguardian.com/global/2018/may/20/nation-of-shoplifters-supermarket-self-checkout
    Richo says Malcolm Turnbull is taking long enough to choose a date for the four by-elections, choosing an election date will take forever.
    https://outline.com/ypR5Z8
    Labor will investigate ¬increasing union appointments to the Fair Work Commission to counter what it claims is an imbalance.
    https://outline.com/uUWwzT
    Albo has indicated Labor would have split from the US and backed a United Nations investigation into the killing of dozens of Palestinians in Gaza, arguing Israel’s actions were damaging the country’s reputation. He demanded the Turnbull government explain why it joined the US as the only two countries to oppose the establishment of an investigation into why 62 Palestinians were killed on Monday by Israeli forces responding to Palestinian protests.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-people-with-guns-have-a-responsibility-albanese-demands-explanation-over-israel-vote-20180520-p4zgd9.html
    But Australia has defended its stance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/australia-votes-against-but-un-sets-up-probe-into-gaza-killings-20180519-p4zgau.html
    Julie Bishop is good at selective outrage.
    https://newmatilda.com/2018/05/20/selective-outrage-julie-bishop-israeli-slaughter-russian-suspicion/
    A leaked letter from Foodco Group, the franchisor behind Muffin Break and Jamaica Blue, has attracted the ire of the parliamentary inquiry into the Franchising Code of Conduct. The letter was sent to all franchisees and claims Foodco welcomes the inquiry but then goes on to warn franchisees of “unsubstantiated allegations” against Foodco.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/immoral-and-illegal-inquiry-warns-against-threats-to-muffin-break-and-jamaica-blue-franchisees-20180518-p4zg6a.html
    Funding has been lopped at hundreds of Catholic schools across Australia, with cuts imposed in politically critical areas.
    https://outline.com/fdLg9J
    One Nation is threatening to ¬direct preferences to Labor ahead of the ¬Coalition, after the LNP rebuffed a secret Longman deal.
    https://outline.com/HB7L23
    Two days after a 17-year-old opened fire in his Texas high school, incoming National Rifle Association president Oliver North blamed the problem on “youngsters who are steeped in a culture of violence.” So now is not the time to talk about gun control but it’s OK to talk about this?
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/pro-gun-lobby-blames-drugged-students-and-abortion-for-shootings-20180521-p4zggp.html
    Janet Albrechtsen makes a stand for Christianity.
    https://outline.com/rcKF2d

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe takes us into the royal bedroom with a scene stealer.

    A cracker from Glen Le Lievre!

    Pat Campbell with a Trump trophy.

    Peter Mark Lewis thinks otherwise.

    Alan Moir sums it up nicely here.

    A few more I here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-may-21-2018-20180520-h10b5a.html

  20. Trump Says Anyone Who Supports Mueller Is Not A Real American

    During his Sunday madness tweet storm over the Russia investigation, Trump claimed that anyone who supports the Russia investigation is not a real American.

    Down is up when it comes to Trump. Keeping foreign countries from interfering in US elections, and prosecuting Americans who illegally cooperate with them is considered an unpatriotic act by this president.

    According to Trump if you want to be a real flag-waving red, white, and blue American, ignore the Russia investigation and blindly support the president.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/05/20/trump-says-anyone-who-supports-mueller-is-not-a-real-american.html

  21. ‘An addition count of obstruction’: CNN legal analyst says Trump stepped in it by ordering DOJ to probe itself

    According to CNN legal analyst Paul Callan, President Donald Trump demanding that the Department of Justice investigate the FBI just added an additional count of “obstruction of justice” to the crimes he could ultimately face.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/addition-count-obstruction-cnn-legal-analyst-says-trump-stepped-ordering-doj-probe/

  22. phoenixRED,
    The Washington Post has covered the ‘Informant’ story very well:

    The Trump team’s strategy on the special counsel’s Russia investigation is to foment chaos, throw things at the wall, and worry about the facts later — or not at all.

    The New York Times’s Maggie Haberman on Friday crystallized this in a CNN interview. “The through line is: They don’t care,” she said. “They’re not looking to be seen as making this credible argument. They are just looking to get a win.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/05/19/trumps-increasingly-tortured-claims-about-muellers-russia-probe/?utm_term=.a081bc0aa8cc

    Russia scandal, President Trump and his defenders have cast about for evidence they can use to dismiss the entire probe as tainted. Did a person on Mueller’s staff once contribute to a Democratic candidate? Did an FBI agent privately express a negative opinion about Trump? Was there a single source with less than pure motives? If so, then the entire thing can be dismissed as a witch hunt, a frame job, a conspiracy to destroy the president.

    Here’s the latest iteration of this: Trump and his allies are talking up an informant who was somehow connected to the Trump campaign in 2016 and provided information to the FBI both before and after the Mueller investigation began. The president himself is making some wild accusations about this informant.

    So here’s what we know and don’t know about him or her, and how it fits into the broader investigation.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/05/18/what-do-we-know-about-the-fbi-informant-that-trump-keeps-talking-about/?utm_term=.32fc1d3b0171

  23. C@tmomma says:

    Monday, May 21, 2018 at 7:21 am

    phoenixRED,
    The Washington Post has covered the ‘Informant’ story very well:

    ***********************************************************

    Thanks C@tmomma – experienced US Trump watchers say his Twitter meltdown is his usual unicorn – look over there – distraction for another one of Robert Mueller’s shoes about to drop on his head ……

    For example : from US political commentator :

    Scott Dworkin‏Verified account @funder

    Republican lobbyist just told me that Trump and his White House are “bracing” for indictments of Americans prob for conspiring against US & fraud. Likely to include Roger Stone, Sam Clovis, and more charges against Paul Manafort. Maybe Kushner and Don Jr.

  24. phoenixRED,
    The point was made that the cry of ‘Set up!’ was also made by Richard Nixon as the net closed in on him.

    I thought Nixon behaved like a cornered rat, he’s nothing compared to Donald Trump!

  25. C@tmomma says: Monday, May 21, 2018 at 7:34 am

    phoenixRED,
    The point was made that the cry of ‘Set up!’ was also made by Richard Nixon as the net closed in on him.

    I thought Nixon behaved like a cornered rat, he’s nothing compared to Donald Trump!

    *************************************************

    For those who care – and for the totally uninterested and bored – it would be great to see some major Mueller developments in bringing it to a head ….. ( maybe something like resign or Ivanka goes to jail …. )

    Nancy Pelosi‏Verified account @NancyPelosi

    For months, @realDonaldTrump has insulted & tried to discredit the men & women at FBI & DOJ in self-serving attempts to distract from the Trump-Russia scandal. His conspiratorial fantasies must not be allowed to undermine the proper function of our justice system.

  27. Morning

    I think this sums up Trump’s hissy fits

    Ale Retweeted
    Tony Schwartz
    Tony Schwartz
    @tonyschwartz
    ·
    15m
    Trump’s desperate torrent of tweets today are a blend of gaslighting, deceit, deflection, misdirection and fantasy. They reflect what I believe is his growing terror that between Mueller & Justice Department, they’ve got him dead to rights. Only out is to try to discredit both.

  28. This made me chuckle!
    Especially the albino rapist!

    Molly Jong-Fast
    Molly Jong-Fast
    @MollyJongFast
    It’s like Watergate except all the participants are haplessly, deeply, truly, and profoundly stupid. This sitcom also features borscht, russian adoptions, light treason, heavy treason, an albino rapist in a cupboard under the stairs and of course, copious amounts of golf.

  29. And on a serious note

    Rick Wilson Retweeted
    Evan McMullin
    Evan McMullin
    @Evan_McMullin
    ·
    1h
    The president signaled today that he’ll use his power to interfere with the Russia investigation, forcing justice officials to choose between him and the rule of law. We’re entering a dangerous period with a pacified Congress and so we must prepare ourselves to respond civically.

  30. Victoria says: Monday, May 21, 2018 at 8:04 am

    ….. The president signaled today that he’ll use his power to interfere with the Russia investigation …….

    **************************************************************

    Louise Mensch‏Verified account @LouiseMensch

    Somebody’s bigly nervous

  32. Phoenix Red

    I know nothing about US laws or mores, but it seems to me that Trump’s tweets about Hillary C have reached the point she could take legal action. If so, I reckon she should.

  34. Lovey says: Monday, May 21, 2018 at 8:16 am

    Phoenix Red

    I know nothing about US laws or mores, but it seems to me that Trump’s tweets about Hillary C have reached the point she could take legal action. If so, I reckon she should.

    ********************************************************

    I think to some degree, that Trump has some protection of being in office from law suits – but once he is out of office I am sure he is going to be hit for all sorts of ‘crimes’ …… mainly related to money matters that happened before he became President but I am sure there are going to be others like defamation, women abuse, …… even underage human trafficking has been mentioned …….

  37. Good morning Bludgers,

    I’m flying today and on my way through security I was screened by the brightest and best available for minimum wage.The guard bomb tested seven people with the same swab.

    Be alert but not alarmed Bludgers.

  38. The AGL board has just said that it has determined that Alinta’s offer to buy the Liddell power station is not in AGL’s best interests.
    Over to you Malcolm.

  39. Trump’s second tweet complains about a $20million witch hunt against him.

    How about the $80million witch hunt by the L/NP into Labor and unions that has now been totally discredited?

  40. So the LNP in Qld have learned the lesson from W.A. maybe?? Dont do deals with PHON??

    And now this is public the ALP can simply not have any discussions with them on preferences, let them do their own thing which will more than likely work in the ALP’s favor…. slightly…and go for it. 🙂

    Went to function on Sat for the Fremantle campaign. People well up for it and looking at it in context of useful groundwork for the next Fed election, and highlighting the ALP in the state seat of Bicton which was a pickup last time somewhat unexpectedly. 🙂

    I’ll be really interested in th eMayo result though. Downer is such an obvious plant from the IPA, ( but not as easy to place as their last one that was in the Senate and by appointment) that would be really good to see her go down in flames.

  41. grimace @ #386 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 8:40 am

    Good morning Bludgers,

    I’m flying today and on my way through security I was screened by the brightest and best available for minimum wage.The guard bomb tested seven people with the same swab.

    Be alert but not alarmed Bludgers.

    The residue test is just Security Kabuki. Because they get so few positives, the economics of testing mean they use a swab until it reaches or exceeds its calculated test limit, then discard. There are no enforceable standards.

  46. Lizzie@6:00am
    What a insightful article. One quote in particular:
    Queen, for instance, in widely deemed to be immortal-constitutionally forbidden to die”
    On ABC news breakfast show, I heard presenters say that Harry and Megan will attend the 70th birthday of “Prince of Wales”. Let that sink in.
    Charles is still a prince at 70. What ever you want say about her as Queen, can we describe her as a bad mother? She could not sacrifice her throne for Charles.

  47. The Queen doesn’t think much of Charles’ abilities so she’ll probably not abdicate and will die in office.

  50. Ven @ #395 Monday, May 21st, 2018 – 9:06 am

    What ever you want say about her as Queen, can we describe her as a bad mother? She could not sacrifice her throne for Charles.

    How about we go with bad leader, generally? She could not relinquish her family’s royal status for the good of everyone else in society.

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