BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

No change in voting intention, but Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is at its strongest in nearly two years.

The post-budget poll flurry prompted much confusion, amid divergent headline figures from Newspoll and Ipsos (more on that from me in a paywalled Crikey article), but it has made no difference to the two-party preferred reading from BludgerTrack. What has changed is the seat projection, which is entirely down to the Queensland-only Galaxy poll, which has boosted the Coalition by 2.9% and three seats in that state. Labor also loses one of its two gains from a quirky result in Victoria last week.

The other notable movement this week is the upswing in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, as recorded by both Newspoll and Ipsos. Turnbull’s net approval reading on BludgerTrack is up 6.0% to minus 13.9%, returning him to around where he was at the time of the last election. Bill Shorten is more or less unchanged, and Turnbull’s improvement on preferred prime minister is a relatively modest 2.9%, putting his margin over Shorten at 11.5%. Full results from the link below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

872 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 18
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  1. Boerwar

    Nah. The business model which started but was Seppo thwarted was ‘Cherman’ brand, tech and Russkiy resource and cheap skilled labour. Both made a motza.

  2. Vogon Poet @ #298 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 6:55 pm

    Ven @ #294 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 6:51 pm

    Confessions @5:51pm
    I wonder then why 45% Ozzy women still v0te for LNP. Is it Stockholm syndrome or something else?

    Given the LNP primary vote is polling about 38%, where did you pluck this figure ?

    It stands to reason that these women being 45% (by volume?) voting LNP would have the remaining 55% voting otherwise, possible Labor.

    Whole women probably vote mostly Labor.

    Don’t forget – 中国一年的迪克头

    Goodnight all. 💤💤💤

  3. Women who vote for the Liberals are aspirational voters who intend to be promoted on their merits.

    So few votes. So much disappointment.

  10. The ABC showed a clip of the Young Monarchists function in Brisbane for the royal wedding. They looked exactly like you would expect them to.

  12. Ive seen William ask Wayne a question on this blog so I dont think they are the same person.

    Suffice to say Williams question was far too intelligent for Wayne,so he got no response.

  13. I wonder then why 45% Ozzy women still v0te for LNP.

    Don’t know whether that is true, given the L/NP primary vote of around 38%. However, traditionally, female voters were more conservative, more attracted to talk of ‘family values’, more religious and were more likely to have a distaste for unions. Menzies always got a big share of the womens’ vote.

    I don’t know if this is still true. If it is, it would only be at the margins.

  15. Steve777 @ #312 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 7:26 pm

    I wonder then why 45% Ozzy women still v0te for LNP.

    Don’t know whether that is true, given the L/NP primary vote of around 38%. However, traditionally, female voters were more conservative, more attracted to talk of ‘family values’, more religious and were more likely to have a distaste for unions. Menzies always got a big share of the womens’ vote.

    I don’t know if this is still true. If it is, it would only be at the margins.

    Do the polls publish gender splits?

  18. Do the polls publish gender splits?

    They sometimes do on polls about specific issues or policies, e.g. same sex marriage, pensions or parental leave, but not normally about voting intentions. Although I expect that the big parties would gather this sort of info in their private polling to target their messaging.

  20. Steve777 @ #317 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 7:34 pm

    Do the polls publish gender splits?

    They sometimes do on polls about specific issues or policies, e.g. same sex marriage, pensions or parental leave, but not normally about voting intentions. Although I expect that the big parties would gather this sort of info in their private polling to target their messaging.

    Thanks. Hmm. In the context of the discussion on “merit-based LNP women” I for one would be interested in knowing how the split might be changing.

  21. A couple from Murdoch’s Oz:

    PM’s election options narrow
    7:34PMGRAHAM RICHARDSON
    Malcolm Turnbull is taking long enough to choose a date for the four by-elections, choosing an election date will take forever.

    PM faces budget showdown
    5:44PM
    The government’s seven-year tax plan faces its first hurdle, and the unwanted prospect of splitting the package looms large.

  24. House of Reps and Estimates sitting for the next two weeks so an opportunity exists to ignore Wayne’s brain as we’ll get to see the budget figures fall apart. Turnbull’s mob will find another pile to entrench their feet within, the budget surge almost non existent and the fall back position of reciting the LNP mantra of fear and loathing exploding in their faces yet again.
    Turnbull, like Abbott before him and the under performing squad are a very ordinary bunch, providing no direction or leadership and are in need of a long holiday. Lets hope this weeks sitting provides the catalyst for a much needed election.

  26. ‘steve davis says:
    Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 7:26 pm

    Ive seen William ask Wayne a question on this blog so I dont think they are the same person.’

    It might have been a rhetorical question.

  27. ‘Ven says:
    Sunday, May 20, 2018 at 7:59 pm

    BW@6:10pm
    Turnbull legacies:
    MT was supposed to be greenest LNP PM. He is such a fraud.’

    That very thought had crossed my mind.

  29. Vogen poet @6:55pm
    Let us say population of women voters in OZ is x.
    From 2016 federal election exit polls, LNP got 45% of above x.

  31. Despite the outrage, I would understand that there are significant outflows from self managed Superannuation Funds to managed funds – plus there are outflows from bank owned Fund Managers to other managers including Industry Funds

    No doubt there is also the crystallisation of losses particularly on Telstra and bank shareholdings

    Those still self managing at the advice of Financial Advisers at cost will be further hurt by this trend over and above the Share price of the fully franked dividend paying Companies they have invested in

    The anger will turn on Financial Advisers who promote self management and investment in ASX Listed Companies paying fully franked dividends – for the purpose of receiving a cheque in the mail from the ATO if they have no taxable income

    The Capital lost will see the fault land where it should – probably absolving Costello who changed legislation and added risk, risk which is now crystallising in significant capital losses

  32. Fess

    Think of a Young Liberal. I wager there is a high cross over between Young Libs and Young Monarchists

  33. PM’s election options narrow
    7:34PMGRAHAM RICHARDSON
    Malcolm Turnbull is taking long enough to choose a date for the four by-elections, choosing an election date will take forever.

    He just wants to hang on to the ephemeral boost he has received recently and a poor result in the by-elections, and strong showing by Labor, which has to be what internal polling is telling him will be the case, will burst that bubble.

  34. Observer

    People may retain the SMSF structure, which can still be cheapest option, but divest themselves of direct ownership of the dividend imputation companies. Simply by going out of Australian shares, or accessing them through low cost index funds, or even listed management funds, where the full benefit of the tax treatment is obtained within their portfolios.

    And people will. This is why I think Labor’s “savings” are illusory.

  35. Ven @ #306 Sunday, May 20th, 2018 – 8:13 pm

    Vogen poet @6:55pm
    Let us say population of women voters in OZ is x.
    From 2016 federal election exit polls, LNP got 45% of above x.

    Then surely that number must be on a 2PP basis, meaning that Labor got the other 55%?

    Because on primaries Liberal + LNP + National came in at under 42% in the 2016 election. I don’t believe that’s possible if the LNP got 45% of all women on primaries.

  36. Kyle Griffin
    ‏Verified account @kylegriffin1
    14h14 hours ago

    FBI officials concluded they had the legal authority to open the investigation after receiving info that George Papadopoulos was told that Moscow had compromising info on Clinton, according to NYT.

    NYT says there’s no evidence it was a political move. https://nyti.ms/2IUVmC8

  37. Can’t find any comments on this morning’s Insiders show.

    That bad, eh?

    HENDERSON: To be fair, Mr Tuckey’s been out of politics now for about two decades, as I recall or thereabouts.
    CASSIDY: No, not that long. He sustained the early part of Insiders, I seem to recall.

    For the record, Wilson Tuckey lost his seat in 2010.

  38. Good evening all,

    I think the feedback from labor focus groups may be in.

    Expect a lot of ” if you want to give a $17 billion tax cut to banks vote for Malcolm Turnbull. If you want to invest $17 billion in our kids and schools vote labor. ”

    Re the savings from the dividend imputation policy.

    Who gives a fu*k if the predicted savings may not be realised in two to three years time. The PBO has done the crunching and spat out what they have spat out. The government ,in its haste to play the high taxing card, has confirmed the savings figure most recently on the the front pages of the OZ.

    Confirmed by the PBO, confirmed by treasury. Run with it.

    What the reality is ? Who cares. That will sort itself out once labor is in government.

    Hypocritical ? Who cares.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  39. Golly,
    Senate Estimates have become so much more interesting and fun now that Kristina Kenneally, Kimberley Kitching and Murray Watt are doing the forensics.

  40. HENDERSON: To be fair, Mr Tuckey’s been out of politics now for about two decades, as I recall or thereabouts.

    What was I saying about today’s Insiders panel not being informative.

    Tuckey lost his seat at the election of 2010 and proceeded to unhinge in a spectacularly undignified albeit highly watchable fashion.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEwfXdj35K0

  43. Murray Watt has given Treasury a formal written ” request ” for the breakdown of the year to year costings for the seven year tax plan lauded by Turnbull and Morrison.

    The cost will be horrendous. It will be interesting to see if Treasury complies.

    Lose lose for the government either way. If Treasury does provide the figures the huge cost will be fodder for labor. Expecting the senate to pass legislation to lock in billions and billions of top end tax cuts in seven years time without having any idea how healthy the economy will be is not going to pass go.

    If treasury refuses to provide the costings then the line writes itself from labor ie ” what is Turnbull trying to hide ? ”

    Then, either way, we have the optics of the government playing politics with low and middle income earners by refusing to split the legislation.

    Interesting week or two ahead.

    Cheers.

  47. Shooting deaths in America:

    If the shooter is Muslim, it’s “keep them out of the country”

    If the shooter is Mexican, it’s “build a wall”

    If the shooter is black, it’s “we need more coppers”

    If the shooter is white, it’s “thoughts and prayers”

  48. Labor senator Jenny McAllister has written to Treasury requesting the year on year breakdown of the seven year tax cut not Murray Watt.

    Whoever, labor is onto it.

    Budget estimates are the best time of year !

    Wong, Kitching, Keneally, Watt, Kim Carr ( still very good ) et al. up against the second rate government senators ? No contest !

    So much to come out from the budget and none of it good.

    Cheers.

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