Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential’s post-budget poll records a gentle shift to the Coalition on voting intention, and a generally favourable response to the budget.

Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Tracey Spicer tweets

    I’ve been keeping this a secret but it’s time to share. In August, I will be in conversation with Pulitzer Prize winning journalist @RonanFarrow at the @MelbWritersFest. Tickets are here! http://ow.ly/HxO130k2x3M

  3. Bernard Keane
    ‏Verified account @BernardKeane
    10m10 minutes ago

    Takes a special kind of gutless cruelty to watch the Awassi Express footage & think ‘we’ll give the sheep a tiny bit of extra room, enforced by the same hack bureaucrats who’ve “regulated” the live export trade to date, and she’ll be right.’ Hope you’re proud, @D_LittleproudMP.

  6. B
    Sadr was the leader of one of the biggest battles against us…
    Meanwhile, the Afghanistan Government us negotiating with the Taliban.
    Hopeless stuff.

  7. I will add another to my list of automatic denials to gun licence requests: anyone who is involved in a separation or divorce proceedings or custody dispute.

  9. Australian Unions tweets

    The Turnbull Govt has serious questions to answer over their knowledge of events that led to blackmail charges against working people’s elected representatives John Setka & Shaun Reardon, who were charged after taking action on safety. https://www.actu.org.au/actu-media/media-releases/2018/turnbull-govt-has-questions-to-answer-after-cfmmeu-charges-withdrawn-1 #auspol https://twitter.com/unionsaustralia/status/996940700217307136/photo/1

  14. Vic – if he is genuinely questioning – then he must do the same for those on his side who produced similar letters from Embassies.

  15. Hawker Britton
    ‏ @HawkerBritton
    1m1 minute ago

    NZ’s Finance Minister Grant Robertson today delivered the Labour-led Government’s first Budget, focused on significant increases in health, education and housing while delivering a $3.7b surplus. Hawker Britton’s Occasional Paper available here: http://bit.ly/2KsgtIX #nzpol

  16. So did the Government conspire with executives of a construction company to bring trumped up charges against officials of an inconvenient union? I don’t know, it wouldn’t surprise me. This will no doubt be mostly ignored in the media, but had there been any hint of such a conspiracy between a Labor Government and union officials, tomorrow’s Daily Telecrap would be converted to a broadsheet to accommodate the size of the headline.

    EDIT: it’s probably not ‘trumped up’ so much, but I can see Government representatives sitting down with company executives and asking: “is there any credible charge we could bring against…?” The charge doesn’t have to stick, just go to trial. The Unions’ enemies would regard it as another case of people they consider wrongdoers going free.

  23. booleanbach

    The Bush crowd will be apoplectic. Sadr was very high on their shit list. His Mahdi Army gave the yanks a bloody nose .

  24. Depends Grimace. Coalition are not averse to having a different standard for themselves … we’ve seen that attitude all along (exception with Mr Tennis) in that Joyce didn’t resign. Nash only resigned and notified at the end of play even though she knew.

  28. William Bowe says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 5:45 pm

    …”Your comments have been going into moderation because you changed your name, and “new” commenters get moderated to prevent spam”…

    …
    Yes, I understand that, but posts under my “real” name were not appearing at all.

    I went today and purchased a $2 SIM card and paid $10 for credit in order to set up a new gmail account, specifically for this blog.

    Unfortunately, I now do not feel a moral or fiduciary duty to remit my regular monthly contribution to you for this month.
    I am sure you will struggle through without it.

  30. bemused says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 5:50 pm

    …”I am sorry I missed what you posted yesterday. Must have been something interesting”…

    …
    2 bottles of red wine, and I foolishly allowed myself to be aggravated by a nitwit.
    You didn’t miss anything worth reading, and I am quite pleased you didn’t see it.

  31. Disavow all Empathy @ #925 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 5:54 pm

    William Bowe says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 5:45 pm

    …”Your comments have been going into moderation because you changed your name, and “new” commenters get moderated to prevent spam”…

    …
    Yes, I understand that, but posts under my “real” name were not appearing at all.

    I went today and purchased a $2 SIM card and paid $10 for credit in order to set up a new gmail account, specifically for this blog.

    Unfortunately, I now do not feel a moral or fiduciary duty to remit my regular monthly contribution to you for this month.
    I am sure you will struggle through without it.

    WB,

    I’ll add another $5 to cover!

  32. Vinnie Mahon tweets

    Australia’s most expensive daily publication AFR in overdrive that prosecutions recommended by Heydon RC haven’t proceeded. Here’s a tip. Hearsay, political rhetoric & fabrications don’t pass muster for evidence. #auspol #TURC

  36. Disavow all Empathy @ #930 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    bemused says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 5:50 pm

    …”I am sorry I missed what you posted yesterday. Must have been something interesting”…

    …
    2 bottles of red wine, and I foolishly allowed myself to be aggravated by a nitwit.
    You didn’t miss anything worth reading, and I am quite pleased you didn’t see it.

    Oh dear! 😆
    I know the feeling.

  37. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 5:56 pm

    …”I’ll add another $5 to cover!”…

    …
    I have seen a picture of you, wearing a pair of stubbies and a 20 year old BIG W t-shirt, in front of your house.
    I doubt you’d have 2 bob to rub together.

  38. Disavow all Empathy @ #937 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:05 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 5:56 pm

    …”I’ll add another $5 to cover!”…

    …
    I have seen a picture of you, wearing a pair of stubbies and a 20 year old BIG W t-shirt, in front of your house.
    I doubt you’d have 2 bob to rub together.

    Sounds like my summer wardrobe.

  39. I have read accusations that you have say letters stating they are from various Egyptian government agencies such as embassies written for the right price.

    However if the attempt to force Anne Aly to re-contest Cowan succeeds, is going to backfire big time and will likely result in an double-digit swing to Labor. Also the whole by-election is going to get really nasty and there will be all sorts of personal attacks on Aly and she will get even more of a sympathy vote from the voters for undergoing such attacks.

    It is best that the Coalition not challenge the legitimacy of the letter from the Egyptian embassy regarding Anne Aly.

  41. bemused says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 6:07 pm

    …”Sounds like my summer wardrobe”…

    Me too, but they were his Sunday bests, and he had just arrived home from the weekly service.

  42. Disavow all Empathy @ #934 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:05 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 5:56 pm

    …”I’ll add another $5 to cover!”…

    …
    I have seen a picture of you, wearing a pair of old stubbies and a 20 year old BIG W t-shirt, in front of your house.
    I doubt you’d have 2 bob to rub together.

    Just another thing you are wrong about!

  43. Sounds like my summer wardrobe.

    Dressed in my summer finery just last week, I walked across the road to enjoy a conducted tour of a neighbours garden.

    She, dear lady complemented me on my pyjamas.

    With pretend indignation I had to explain the tee shirt and mickey mouse shorts constitute my everyday wardrobe. The Bugs Bunny shorts are for Sunday go to meeting.

    Now was that not a lot of not much at all?
    Yep.

    Goodnight all. 💤💤💤

  44. Makes for a great headline eh ? But as I posted here at the time the claim was made, normal population growth would deliver pretty much 1,000,000 jobs. All without the Coalition doing a thing. Population now is probably even more than was projected back then so they could do even more sitting on their arskes.

    Was it just population growth ? Well it sure would answer this question from Labor “Labor asks why jobless rate is not falling :”

    ‘Phenomenal growth’ More than a million new jobs in five years meets Tony Abbott’s goal”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/17/more-than-a-million-new-jobs-in-five-years-meets-tony-abbotts-goal

  47. This what Egyptian Law 26 1975 says about if Anne Aly was stripped of Egyptian citizenship when she became an Australian Citizenship.

    Article 16:
    The Ministers Council may issue a decree stripping the Egyptian Nationality off anyone
    enjoying it, in any of the following cases:
    1. If he enters a foreign nationality, in a manner other than what is set forth sub
    article 10

    Article 10:
    An Egyptian may not acquire a foreign nationality except after obtaining a permission
    therefor, to be issued by decree of the Minister of Interior. Otherwise, he shall
    continue to be regarded in all cases as Egyptian from all points of view, unless the
    Council of Ministers decide to strip him of the nationality according to the provisions
    of article 16 of the present law.
    An Egyptian who acquires a foreign nationality shall forfeit the Egyptian nationality, if
    he has been permitted to obtain the foreign nationality.
    However, a permission to acquire a foreign nationality, may also comprise the
    permission for him, his wife and minor children, to retain the Egyptian nationality. If
    within a period not exceeding one year from the date he acquires the foreign
    nationality, he declares his wish to benefit thereby, they shall retain their Egyptian
    nationality, despite their acquiring the foreign nationality.

    Therefore Anne Aly is total in the clear in this regard, she obtained Australian citizenship without asking for permission from the Minister of Interior. I am not sure when Anne Aly became an Australia Citizenship, she was 8 when this law was passed.

  49. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 6:13 pm

    …”Just another thing you are wrong about”…

    …
    Well, I’m only drinking beer tonight so the likelihood of you getting under my skin is close to nil.

    It was in the local paper.

    There were you, in yer stubbies, left agit precariously close to slipping out the side of your undies.
    The image is permanently imprinted on my tiny little brain.
    I do not believe that you could have forgotten your moment of infamy so easily.

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