Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential’s post-budget poll records a gentle shift to the Coalition on voting intention, and a generally favourable response to the budget.

Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Our great LNP are on course to win Longman Braddon Mayo and win all the seats they lose at the 2016 election and Malcolm Turnbull will still PM till 2022

  2. Tristo says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 6:24 pm

    I believe that Aly was 2 years old when she came to Australia and became an Australian citizen as a child.

  3. Steve777, re possible collusion between Boral and the government, apparently the witness reports of the meeting in question changed many times, more than 10.

    Also initial reports by the executives presumably to their management didn’t raise any concerns about blackmail or anything else.

  4. Tristo

    “It is best that the Coalition not challenge the legitimacy of the letter from the Egyptian embassy regarding Anne Aly”

    I doubt the federal coalition will take advice from anyone on this blog and they will pursue any opportunity in order to expose Shorten and the ALP’s sloppy vetting processes.

  5. @briefly

    I knew about her coming to Australia as a 2 year old, I wasn’t sure when she exactly became an Australian citizen. To me anyway it is obvious from the reading of the relvant Egyptian law which I posted, she was stripped of Egyptian citizenship when she became an Australian citizen. Because I don’t think either her or her family asked for permission from the Ministry of Interior before they took up Australian Citizenship.

    How ever is working for Christopher Porter must be really sloppy at their legal research.

  6. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 6:37 pm

    I doubt the federal coalition will take advice from anyone on this blog and they will pursue any opportunity in order to expose Shorten and the ALP’s sloppy vetting processes.

    The former leader of the National Party might say something similar about the LNP’s sloppy vetting process.

  7. Christian Porter and the Coalition just look vindictive the way they are going after Dr Anne Aly with fangs bared.

    I hope Grimace and the gang make that point to every elector in Pearce!

  8. With the Longman by-election in the wind, I found it hilarious that today Turnbull visited Longman but had no candidate to stand next to him. 🙂

  9. GT, couldn’t get your link to work.

    This might be the same news item:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-17/ann-sudmalis-facing-challenge-for-gilmore-preselection/9768590

    Anne Sudmalis faces challenge from real estate agent Grant Schultz in her marginal NSW seat
    Scott Morrison enthusiastically endorsed Ms Sudmalis, urging preselectors to back her
    Dumping Ms Sudmalis could embarrass the PM at a time when female representation in the Coalition is a sensitive issue

  10. Wayne says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 6:27 pm

    …”Our great LNP are on course to win Longman Braddon Mayo and win all the seats they lose at the 2016 election and Malcolm Turnbull will still PM till 2022″…


    You should start your own psephology blog.
    I will pay you $12 per month if I can be member #1.

  11. @C@tmomma

    What ever people think about John Howard, if this has emerged when he was Prime Minister he would have very likely had an independent audit done of every MP. There would have been a large number of resignations and by-elections although.

  12. guytaur says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 6:45 pm
    Don

    Yes same item. Sorry link didn’t work it should have.

    Might be at my end. I have had a lot of trouble getting twitter URLs to work just lately.

  13. Tristo @ #956 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    @briefly

    I knew about her coming to Australia as a 2 year old, I wasn’t sure when she exactly became an Australian citizen. To me anyway it is obvious from the reading of the relvant Egyptian law which I posted, she was stripped of Egyptian citizenship when she became an Australian citizen. Because I don’t think either her or her family asked for permission from the Ministry of Interior before they took up Australian Citizenship.

    How ever is working for Christopher Porter must be really sloppy at their legal research.

    Who is this “Christopher Porter” character?

  14. @bemused

    I meant Christian Porter, I got his name mixed up by accident. Anyway I expect Julie Bishop to retire from politics in the event of a Coalition loss and he gets defeated in Pearce, he will probably replace Julie Bishop in Curtin.

  15. Tristo @ #973 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:55 pm

    @bemused

    I meant Christian Porter, I got his name mixed up by accident. Anyway I expect Julie Bishop to retire from politics in the event of a Coalition loss and he gets defeated in Pearce, he will probably replace Julie Bishop in Curtin.

    There’s going to be a lot of shit to to clean from this particular Augean Stable!

  16. You call that a knife, now THIS is a knife! (with apologies to Crocodile Dundee).

    Back off Anne Aly or else, Shorten warns
    JOE KELLY
    Some government MPs could be hit by the ‘constitutional bus’ if they continue to raise citizenship queries, Bill Shorten warns. (Oz headline)

  17. citizen @ #975 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 4:59 pm

    You call that a knife, now THIS is a knife! (with apologies to Crocodile Dundee).

    Back off Anne Aly or else, Shorten warns
    JOE KELLY
    Some government MPs could be hit by the ‘constitutional bus’ if they continue to raise citizenship queries, Bill Shorten warns. (Oz headline)

    He should be friggen well hitting them anyway!!!!!

  18. They’re quick to blame the state of all politics but did the Liberal’s ever consider they might have pissed in their own pool when it comes to finding suitable candidates given they’ve more or less cut out 50% of the eligible population.

  19. Great to be at the @Purple_Bombers @EssendonFC annual #IDAHOBIT event – great hearing from two members about the positive impact that being part of the group has had on them individually- it’s like a family + important source of support.Means the world when our clubs support us

    What is this referring to?

  20. but did the Liberal’s ever consider they might have pissed in their own pool when it comes to finding suitable candidates given they’ve more or less cut out 50% of the eligible population.

    Unlikely, seeing as their practices don’t change.

  21. guytaur says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 4:59 pm

    …”Good on you Queensland Labor”…


    Thanks.
    At the next branch meeting, I’ll be sure to pass on the news that there is at least one bushwacker from down south who may not think we are all a bunch of provincials.

  22. Barney in Go Dau @ #961 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:44 pm

    With the Longman by-election in the wind, I found it hilarious that today Turnbull visited Longman but had no candidate to stand next to him.

    He couldn’t find a cardboard cut out or borrow a wax figure from Madam Tussauds?

  23. citizen @ #975 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:59 pm

    You call that a knife, now THIS is a knife! (with apologies to Crocodile Dundee).

    Back off Anne Aly or else, Shorten warns
    JOE KELLY
    Some government MPs could be hit by the ‘constitutional bus’ if they continue to raise citizenship queries, Bill Shorten warns. (Oz headline)

    Cracker!

  24. Disavow all Empathy @ #981 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 7:07 pm

    guytaur says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 4:59 pm

    …”Good on you Queensland Labor”…


    Thanks.
    At the next branch meeting, I’ll be sure to pass on the news that there is at least one bushwacker from down south who may not think we are all a bunch of provincials.

    How they hanging?

  25. Sorry guytaur. I don’t read over the day’s posts and that acronym was unfamiliar to me.

    Now it makes sense.

  26. Whats this with collusion between Boral and the govt? Ive been out of the loop for most of the day.

  27. The Intellectual Bogan says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 5:07 pm

    …”Apologies Roger Miller and any other Rogers on PB. Like I said, small sample size”…


    My father-in-law is named Roger, he is a bit of a dodgy bastard and a bushwacker from down south, but an otherwise decent sort of bloke.

    I shall make no comment regarding his daughter.

  28. Ides of March not.logged in @ #989 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 7:12 pm

    Whats this with collusion between Boral and the govt? Ive been out of the loop for most of the day.</blockquot

    Following the TURC, the Government had discussions/informal briefings/ guided interpretations of what the Unions said to Boral Executives at a meeting that suddenly turned in to a Blackmail charge against two prominent TU officials. Their lawyers took the evidence apart and the charges have been dropped!

  29. Goes back to Boral exec and Dyson Heydon colluding at the TURC, and Abetz possibly after.

    How is that legal?

    The more that comes out of TURC the more of a total WOFTAM it becomes.

  30. $30,000,000 in NAIF funds are to go to a privately owned Barra farm at a time when wild catch fishers are going broke because the market has collapsed.

    #HEYMATEonBludger

  31. Ann and Jane could link up sith Lucy and do some serious damage between now and the election.
    Hell hath no fury like a Liberal woman of no merit scorned.

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