Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential’s post-budget poll records a gentle shift to the Coalition on voting intention, and a generally favourable response to the budget.

Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. So apparently Anne Aly’s proof (a letter from the Egyptian Embassy stating that she was not an Egyptian citizen when the election was called) is insufficient.

    She has QuEsTiOnS 2 aNsWeR!!!1 According to the man making George Brandis look good.

    Namely:

    Did the Egyptians actually read it? They only had 48 hours and thus couldn’t possibly have read a 1 page letter.

    Did she forge it? It’s not signed, so I’m guessing ‘probably’.

    Is the Australian a better expert of Egyptian citizenship than the Egyptian embassy? After all, Legal experts questioned whether the letter confirmed Dr Aly had satisfied key tests in Egyptian nationality law, specifically article 10, article 16 and article 22.

    What a bunch of idiots.

    For source, google ‘citizenship-sage-anne-aly-curiosities-remain-christian-porter-says’, or just slam your hand in the car door to get the pain over quicker.

  5. Voice Endeavour @ #850 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 1:33 pm

    So apparently Anne Aly’s proof (a letter from the Egyptian Embassy stating that she was not an Egyptian citizen when the election was called) is insufficient.

    She has QuEsTiOnS 2 aNsWeR!!!1 According to the man making George Brandis look good.

    Namely:

    Did the Egyptians actually read it? They only had 48 hours and thus couldn’t possibly have read a 1 page letter.

    Did she forge it? It’s not signed, so I’m guessing ‘probably’.

    Is the Australian a better expert of Egyptian citizenship than the Egyptian embassy? After all, Legal experts questioned whether the letter confirmed Dr Aly had satisfied key tests in Egyptian nationality law, specifically article 10, article 16 and article 22.

    What a bunch of idiots.

    For source, google ‘citizenship-sage-anne-aly-curiosities-remain-christian-porter-says’, or just slam your hand in the car door to get the pain over quicker.

    If Mr Porter is not careful he’ll be donating some money to the progressive cause in the lead up to the next election. First John Sekta, now Anne Aly.

    I suspect he’s feeling the pressure of some truly abysmal internal polling in Western Australia.

  7. you can’t take it with you when you die — Actually, you can take a dark blue suit with you, and you probably can put some stuff in the pockets.

    you learn something new every day — You actually learn something old every day. It’s just new to you.

    it takes two to tango — Actually, it takes one, but it takes two to tango together.

    meteoric rise — Meteors fall, not rise.

    talk until you’re blue in the face — Impossible. If you talk, you’ve got the oxygen you need. If you’re blue in the face, you’re not talking because you don’t have the oxygen

    celibacy vs. chastity — One refers to not being married; the other refers to not having sex.

    momentarily — It means “for a moment” not “in a moment.”

    presently — It means “in a moment.”

    no other option/alternative — It’s redundant.

    light year — It’s a measure of distance, not time. It measures the distance light will travel in a year, which is about 5.88 trillion miles.

    implosion — It isn’t the act of collapsing a building with explosives. That’s an explosion or series of explosions that causes the building to collapse inwardly. An implosion is a scientific phenomenon in which something bursts inward instead of outward.

  8. grimace @ #853 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 12:38 pm

    …

    If Mr Porter is not careful he’ll be donating some money to the progressive cause in the lead up to the next election. First John Sekta, now Anne Aly.

    I suspect he’s feeling the pressure of some truly abysmal internal polling in Western Australia.

    He’s showing similarities with our great Treasurer.

    A distinct lack of knowledge in their portfolios. 🙂

  10. @PhoenixRed – can’t believe you missed out on parsec. Like lightyear, it’s also a unit of distance. Bragging that you made the Kessel Run in a certain number of parsecs is only good for impressing farmboys.

  12. phoenixRED @ #851 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 3:41 pm

    talk until you’re blue in the face — Impossible. If you talk, you’ve got the oxygen you need. If you’re blue in the face, you’re not talking because you don’t have the oxygen

    Unless you’re breathing helium. Or nitrogen. Or any pure gas aside from oxygen, or any deoxygenated mix of gases. In which case you can certainly talk while you asphyxiate and turn blue at the same time. Up until the point where you lose consciousness, anyways.

  21. Voice Endeavour says: Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 3:47 pm

    @PhoenixRed – can’t believe you missed out on parsec. Like lightyear, it’s also a unit of distance. Bragging that you made the Kessel Run in a certain number of parsecs is only good for impressing farmboys.

    ********************************************************

    OK – last post for today – on politics or at least George Carlins take – American or Australian – its the SAME :

    Carlin said the following:

    “Now, there’s one thing you might have noticed I don’t complain about: politicians. Everybody complains about politicians. Everybody says they suck. Well, where do people think these politicians come from? They don’t fall out of the sky. They don’t pass through a membrane from another reality. They come from American parents and American families, American homes, American schools, American churches, American businesses and American universities, and they are elected by American citizens. This is the best we can do folks. This is what we have to offer. It’s what our system produces: Garbage in, garbage out.”

  28. Christian Porter says letter from Egyptian Embassy regarding Ann Aly is a fake because it is not written in the official Egyptian language.

  29. Turnbull and Cash spruiking all the new jobs they are creating.

    Meanwhile, tape below tells the truth!

  31. Question from the floor without notice. Where are we actually up to with Cash and the order to release the correspondence (or whatever) re the AWU Office raid fiasco.?

  32. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 4:21 pm
    Turnbull and Cash spruiking all the new jobs they are creating.

    Meanwhile, tape below tells the truth!

    Give it an hour or so and Murdoch and Fifield will be threatening the ABC with all sorts of dire consequences.

  35. My goodness but Mr Porter is turning out to be even more of a prat than I’d thought possible. I’m glad redistribution has moved me from Pearce to Hasluck. At least Ken Wyatt isn’t an embarrassment, even if he’s on the wrong side.

  36. For Sale

    Hard drive – 500 MB

    Used. Suitable for keen fishing sportsman or for discus athlete.

    Make an offer. First to make offer will be successful.
    🦈

  37. van Badham makes some excellent points.

    “Whatever may have transpired in Margaret River that morning, the narrative of the “good bloke” who “snaps” and kills his family is myth, whether it’s “what people thought of him” or not. And maintaining it as a frame for news reporting provides external validation to potential murderers that their inclinations towards violence are not unconscionable.

    Indeed, “good bloke” memorialising around suspected killers instructs that you can both murder your family and retain your reputation”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/17/when-we-make-excuses-for-male-violence-we-encourage-it?CMP=share_btn_tw

  38. “Corby Berandi tweets
    Rainbow of parties recommend constitutional change to accommodate dual citizens – a proposal Australian Conservatives reject”

    These days I think ‘Australian Conservatives’ must comprise Cory and a few stray dogs.

  40. I wonder how the USA will deal with this coalition?
    The surprising winner is the Sairoon coalition of the Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and the Communist Party of Iraq. According to the preliminary results it gained 54 parliament seats. There are a total of 320 seats in the Iraqi parliament and complicate multiparty coalitions are necessary to gain a majority and to elect a new Prime Minister.

    The Fatah Coalition headed by Hadi al-Amiri came in second with 47 seats. The Nasr coalition of the current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is third with 42 seats. The party of former premier Maliki is lagging behind with 25 seats.

    Two, three or four of the larger blocks will have to find a coalition agreement that will also accommodate dozens of smaller parties with two or three parliament seats.
    http://www.moonofalabama.org/

  41. phoenixRED @ #834 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 3:05 pm

    adrian says: Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 2:56 pm

    Overly pedantic.
    You cannot have correct grammar without following punctuation rules.
    Essentially a distinction without a difference.

    ***********************************************************

    Follow these rules to write gooder :

    —

    Whit is the source for this? I love it.

  42. Citizen

    Yeah. Sorry for my typo.

    I do think the right has lost the culture war as well as it is losing the economic one.

  43. Turnbull and Cash spruiking all the new jobs they are creating.

    “Meanwhile, tape below tells the truth!”

    So……there is a Resistance in the ABC after all. 🙂

  45. I resolve never to carelessly split an infinitive.

    According to the rules of prescriptive grammar, the above sentence is just wrong, even though it’s spelled and punctuated correctly.

    Grammar and punctuation are different things.

    (Sorry. I know things can get boring pretty quickly when someone won’t let a subject lie and insists on always trying to get the last word. I’ll try and shut up now.)

  46. guytaur @ #878 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 4:26 pm

    Oh dear its all the gays fault

    Corby Berandi tweets
    Rainbow of parties recommend constitutional change to accommodate dual citizens – a proposal Australian Conservatives reject https://www.conservatives.org.au/rainbow_of_parties_recommend_constitutional_re_write_for_dual_citizens #auspol #citizenship #s44 #abetterway https://twitter.com/AuConservatives/status/996930597216923648/photo/1

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    That graphic is remarkably ineffective as anti-lgbt propaganda. My intuitive response is to side with the wrecking ball. It’s colorful and HD (and the rainbow is really quite well done and eye-catching), while the document is drab and blurry.

  47. Good luck, Sally

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust · 4h4 hours ago

    .@sallymcmanus on CFMEU blackmail case: This was the centerpiece of the royal commission that was used in our view, to smear all unions. We’re going to look at this carefully. We think @TonyAbbottMHR and @SenatorAbetz could be involved.

  49. Everyone I’ve ever seen or heard described as a “good bloke” or “lovely bloke” or any of a number of similar alternatives has been, to anyone with eyes in their head, anything but.

    But then, everyone I’ve ever known called Roger has been either a moron or a psychopath, so I think my perceptions might be somewhat distorted by small sample size ;).

  50. Good on you Queensland Labor.
    Chris O Brien tweets

    And that’s it – the council integrity, and developer donation ban laws have passed. #qldpol @abcnews

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