Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential’s post-budget poll records a gentle shift to the Coalition on voting intention, and a generally favourable response to the budget.

Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Mark Kenny, sober political analyst, senior CPG member – and someone who expects us to take his thoughts seriously – reckons that Malcolm has had another reboot, reset or maybe a “resurgence”. Whatever it is, Mark reckons it’s “marvellous”:

    For Malcolm Turnbull, the sense of renaissance which appeared just fleetingly at the beginning of the year, may be returning.

    Its rumoured presence is more atmospheric than scientific but glimpses of what might be called “ascendant Malcolm” keep flashing up like subliminal advertising.

    Thursday’s election-style event at Kennedy’s Timbers in Narangba Queensland saw the Prime Minister parade his quirky knowledge of the eastern and southern spotted gum versus the northern version, or as he volunteered: “Corymbia Maculata as opposed to Eucalyptus Maculata”. Marvellous.

    Buoying the spirits of team-Turnbull is a confluence of factors including a rebounding economy, a generally well-received budget, Bill Shorten’s imminent byelection challenges, and the hope of extra pressure on the Labor leader around his party’s July National Conference.

    Nothing succeeds like success.

    CPG chaps don’t like to be wrong. They told us in November last year that startimg in 2018 Turnbull would be rebooting. Well, that didn’t happen. Barnarby Joyce saw to that, but not before the CPG gave the game away by telling us (prematurely) that it had already happened. Mark tells us that nothing succeeds like success. And in the “Success” game, there is nothing more fulfilling than a self-fulfilling prophecy, especically when the prophet gets to be the umpire of his own predictions. Enter the CPG. But even the CPG couldn’t figure on the total train wreck that was Barnarby Joyce.

    Not to be deterred, out of nowhere comes today’s laughingly-called “analysis” where, ignoring the disastrous, sliding results of the Ipsos poll that his own employer claims is the pulse of the nation, and also putting to one side 32 successive losing Newspolls, plus dozens of Essentials, Mark tells us not to believe our lyin’ eyes, and instead to celebrate with him the Rebirth Of Malcolm Turnbull.

    It’s a pure (and embarrassingly fawning) propaganda piece, a propos of nothing. Presumably the PM’s office thought a nice cheery piece would look good on the front page of the SMH, to take the troops’ minds off multiple preselection debacles, a Budget that got laughed out of Parliament, the failure of the atrociously biased TURC to score the blackmail conviction of a CFMEU leader (as opposed to news crews coming out of the woodwork when he was arrested in a public place), the pathetic lack of candidates for coming by-elections (and come to think of it, the lack of by-elections themselves), and so much more that has gone so right for Mark’s beleaguered hero.

    Today’s piece of rubbish smacks of a new meme, and a new outrage. I suspect that no matter what tragedies befall the tin-eared Turnbull in the weeks to come, Mark and his bretheren in the CPG will be certifying it all as a brilliant success, and about time too. Not to be daunted from their promise to readers of a New Year’s reset, they have now simply resorted to declaring it to be true, and bugger reality.

    And they get paid for writing this.

  2. @Bushfire Bill

    It’s shocking but not unusual for Mark Kenny. There are quite a few Turnbull worshippers in Fairfax.

    I mostly don’t even bother to read some journalists as their analysis is next to useless and even less insightful compared to some posters on this blog.

  3. The basic problem I have with the CPG is that they are theiving oxygen off more deserving organisms.

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