Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential’s post-budget poll records a gentle shift to the Coalition on voting intention, and a generally favourable response to the budget.

Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. shiftaling @ #1087 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 7:54 pm

    I’ve just started the Handmaid’s Tale. Elisabeth Moss is good but I feel the supporting cast doesn’t hold a candle to the movie version from the eighties. Faye Dunaway as Serena Joy struck just the right “Washington Wife” tone and Robert Duval was so much more believable as a stern military fascist than the amiable looking Fiennes.

    Interesting. All the reviews I’ve seen of both say the TV show is vastly superior. I’ll check out the movie as it’s available on Stan.

  3. Barney in Go Dau @ #1084 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 9:51 pm

    Disavow all Empathy @ #1072 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:42 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 9:36 pm

    …”If you want to cut your own throat, don’t come to me for a bandage”…

    …
    If you walked into any pub I was in charge of, I’d pay my least favorite local 2 pots of free beer to drag you into the car park and give you a jolly good sorting out.

    That is way out of line threatening violence at any poster!!!!

    All metaphorical Barney.

  4. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    …”bemused never takes advice!”…

    …
    Well done, you have obviated your own idiocy.

  6. Dan I wouldn’t have said the movie was a masterpiece of cinema but I felt it was a solid, fairly faithful adaptation of the novel, and like I said there were some great performances. I haven’t watched enough of the tv series to judge it yet. I’m enjoying it, and expect it will go well beyond the bounds of the original material given that it was a fairly short book and I believe the show is into it’s second season

  9. Greensborough Growler @ #1086 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1077 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 9:44 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1026 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 5:24 pm

    Heard earlier on the radio that 50% of Australian voters are ineligible to stand for Parliament accodring to the Reynolds inquiry!

    That’s a misleading figure and statement.

    None of these people are barred from Parliament however they do need to take some action to do so, be that resign their employment, divest any financial dealings with the Commonwealth or renounce any other citizenships. 🙂

    1. I did say it was a radio report.
    2. The HC might differ from your interpretation.

    Change/Abolish S44 is my solution. Don’t really care how it’s done!

    1. I never said otherwise as you made that clear.

    2. Why would the HC differ, it’s what they have said in their rulings!

    If you are a Employee of the Crown you must resign to stand for Parliament.
    If you have financial dealings with the Commonwealth then you must divest those dealings to stand for Parliament.
    If you are also a citizen of another country then you must renounce that citizenship to stand for Parliament.

    Only one way to change the Constitution and that is through a referendum1

  10. William Bowe says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 10:04 pm

    …”No, you just will”…

    …
    Certainly sir, am I permitted to call Greensborough Growler an idiot?
    Given it is factually provable?

  13. Has anyone ever held a Royal Commission into a Royal Commission and its outcomings?

    TURC could be a first!!! 🙂

  16. Barney in Go Dau @ #1109 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 10:10 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1086 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1077 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 9:44 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1026 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 5:24 pm

    Heard earlier on the radio that 50% of Australian voters are ineligible to stand for Parliament accodring to the Reynolds inquiry!

    That’s a misleading figure and statement.

    None of these people are barred from Parliament however they do need to take some action to do so, be that resign their employment, divest any financial dealings with the Commonwealth or renounce any other citizenships. 🙂

    1. I did say it was a radio report.
    2. The HC might differ from your interpretation.

    Change/Abolish S44 is my solution. Don’t really care how it’s done!

    1. I never said otherwise as you made that clear.

    2. Why would the HC differ, it’s what they have said in their rulings!

    If you are a Employee of the Crown you must resign to stand for Parliament.
    If you have financial dealings with the Commonwealth then you must divest those dealings to stand for Parliament.
    If you are also a citizen of another country then you must renounce that citizenship to stand for Parliament.

    Only one way to change the Constitution and that is through a referendum1

    Which is what I have advocated.

  19. shiftaling

    The reason I like the TV show so much is the reason many dislike it – its utter bleakness. Had the show been made for American network TV they’d have no doubt glossed it up and made it a bit brighter. This of course would’ve made it complete rubbish. To accurately convey the world of Gilead there is no way to gloss it up. It’s beauty is its sheer ugliness.

    Will check out the movie this weekend and let you know what I think of it. Although with both Faye Dunaway and Robert Duvall in it, how can you go wrong?

  21. Is it International Day Against Homophobia, Biphobia & Transphobia today? You’ve certainly been very shy about notifying us of this guytaur.

    Yes I am giving you a playful poke (oo-er vicar) over this. 😉

  24. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 10:16 pm

    …”Disavow,
    You are low rent.
    Given it is factually provable”…

    …
    I don’t pay rent.
    My wife grosses anywhere between 5 and 9.5 thousand dollars a week.
    I hit the wife lottery jackpot, so to speak.
    I don’t have a job, I do not need one, although I grew up milking cows for 2 bucks an hour and picking beans and mangoes.
    I am in my early 40’s and essentially retired.
    I stay in 5 star hotels all over the world on a whim, as is my want.

    If I was the arsehole you have assumed me to be, she would have run off with my children years ago.
    I will always vote Labor, because I hope they will make better, the country I am proud to be a citizen of.
    Get it?

  26. I am sure GG does not give a shit about some wet lettuce attack from some out in the vapour no name.

    But hey, whatever rocks your boat.

    BTW, victoria, lizzie, cat, zoomster, confessions , jenauthor et al you all rock and forever may it be so !

    From a grumpy, 62 year old male who thinks a few other males here need to take a chill pill and perhaps rethink how prehistoric they have sounded in the past few days.

    Cheers to all and stay mellow.

  27. Disavow all Empathy @ #1124 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 10:32 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 10:16 pm

    …”Disavow,
    You are low rent.
    Given it is factually provable”…

    …
    I don’t pay rent.
    My wife grosses anywhere between 5 and 9.5 thousand dollars a week.
    I hit the wife lottery jackpot, so to speak.
    I don’t have a job, I do not need one, although I grew up milking cows for 2 bucks an hour and picking beans and mangoes.
    I am in my early 40’s and essentially retired.
    I stay in 5 star hotels all over the world on a whim, as is my want.

    If I was the arsehole you have assumed me to be, she would have run off with my children years ago.
    I will always vote Labor, because I hope they will make better, the country I am proud to be a citizen of.
    Get it?

    What we get is that you are a grade one arsehole 🙁

  28. “Enough exploitation and humiliation of women going on in real life”

    Why is everything thru the prism of a person’s gender?

    And specifically women?

    Women are not the only demographic in our society who can find they have a need to represent themselves to obtain more just outcomes

  29. Disavow all Empathy @ #1123 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 10:32 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 10:16 pm

    …”Disavow,
    You are low rent.
    Given it is factually provable”…

    …
    I don’t pay rent.
    My wife grosses anywhere between 5 and 9.5 thousand dollars a week.
    I hit the wife lottery jackpot, so to speak.
    I don’t have a job, I do not need one, although I grew up milking cows for 2 bucks an hour and picking beans and mangoes.
    I am in my early 40’s and essentially retired.
    I stay in 5 star hotels all over the world on a whim, as is my want.

    If I was the arsehole you have assumed me to be, she would have run off with my children years ago.
    I will always vote Labor, because I hope they will make better, the country I am proud to be a citizen of.
    Get it?

    They did a vid on you years ago.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5mtclwloEQ

  30. Player One @ #1126 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 10:34 pm

    Disavow all Empathy @ #1124 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 10:32 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 10:16 pm

    …”Disavow,
    You are low rent.
    Given it is factually provable”…

    …
    I don’t pay rent.
    My wife grosses anywhere between 5 and 9.5 thousand dollars a week.
    I hit the wife lottery jackpot, so to speak.
    I don’t have a job, I do not need one, although I grew up milking cows for 2 bucks an hour and picking beans and mangoes.
    I am in my early 40’s and essentially retired.
    I stay in 5 star hotels all over the world on a whim, as is my want.

    If I was the arsehole you have assumed me to be, she would have run off with my children years ago.
    I will always vote Labor, because I hope they will make better, the country I am proud to be a citizen of.
    Get it?

    What we get is that you are a grade one arsehole 🙁

    Give him nothing. But, take him nowhere!

  31. BTW, victoria, lizzie, cat, zoomster, confessions et al you all rock and forever may it be so !

    Thanks doyley.

    We are women, hear us roar 😀

  32. Michael Aventti tweets
    “Each time a woman stands up for herself, without knowing it possibly, without claiming it, she stands up for all women.” – Maya Angelou

    We should all thank @StormyDaniels for her sacrifice and strength. The full extent of her courage will come into focus in the coming weeks.

  35. Player One says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    …”What we get is that you are a grade one arsehole”…

    …
    I paid less tax last year on $480,000 gross than your taxable income.

    Ask the bloke here who is an accountant, how to pay yourself a wage as the managing director of a pty ltd company, if you wish to know how this is done.

    I can explain to you how to earn this amount of money if you like?

    You won’t do it working for the man though, you gotta ask other people work for you.

  36. I don’t know if it has been discussed but looks like Melbourne will have a female Lord Mayor with ex-property council executive Sally Capp in the lead with ALP member Jennifer Yang in the second position.

    Greens councillor Rohan Leppert seems to have got only %13, down from %21, a very poor showing. Can’t read much into council voting but nevertheless I thought it was interesting.

  37. Disavow all Empathy @ #1135 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 10:54 pm

    Player One says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    …”What we get is that you are a grade one arsehole”…

    …
    I paid less tax last year on $480,000 than your taxable income.

    Ask the bloke here who is an accountant, how to pay yourself a wage as the managing director of a pty ltd company, if you wish to know how this is done.

    I can explain to you how to earn this amount of money if you like?

    You won’t do it working for the man though, you gotta ask other people work for you.

    What we get here is a grade 1 arsehole!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NXnxTNIWkc

  38. Oh, and it will cost you no less than $5000 a year to hire a bookkeeper who is willing to do that for you.
    Tax deductible, of course.

  39. Gorks @ #1136 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 10:57 pm

    I don’t know if it has been discussed but looks like Melbourne will have a female Lord Mayor with ex-property council executive Sally Capp in the lead with ALP member Jennifer Yang in the second position.

    Greens councillor Rohan Leppert seems to have got only %13, down from %21, a very poor showing. Can’t read much into council voting but nevertheless I thought it was interesting.

    It will be great if Jennifer Yang wins.

  44. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 11:04 pm

    …”How they hanging?”…

    …
    I’d bet a thousand quid they’ve never slapped against anything quite so revolting as yours have.

  49. guytaur says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    The Sydney Morning Herald tweets

    …”A man has hurled abuse at the Prime Minister inside a Brisbane hotel because the nation’s leader got served before him at the bar”…

    …
    This is probably the best thing I have ever heard.
    And it is why QUEENSLAND IS THE GREATEST PLACE ON EARTH.
    We will never take shit from you other idiots, we are better than you, we are tougher than you, one of us could beat 20 of you blue blooded fuckwits in a fight.

    If the Prime Minister wants to ponce his way to the front of the line in a pub, he is going to get told to wait his fucking turn.

    It is 14 degrees Celsius here right now.
    I have a blazing fire going in my hearth, because 14 degrees is cold, tommorrow it will be 25, and that is unacceptably cold for the month of May, so the fire will burn, and my children will go to school wearing jumpers.

    GO QUEENSLAND…

  50. 14 is borderline cold.

    25 Cold jumper whether? Ha ha. For May???

    You don`t know the meaning of the word cold.

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