Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential’s post-budget poll records a gentle shift to the Coalition on voting intention, and a generally favourable response to the budget.

Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Re Guiliani:

    The people don’t kick someone out of office after he has been Time’s ‘Man of the Year’ for no good reason.

  2. William

    It will be interesting to hear your opinion on virtual Town Halls.

    Its certainly one way of bypassing the media gatekeepers.

  3. I would suggest labor intends to put as much pressure on the throat of Turnbull as it can, irrespective of the electorate.

    The bigger the swing the better it looks. Leve nothing to chance.

    The decision by Turnbull and co not to stand candidates in Freemantle or Perth ,irrespective of the reason , is a gift for labor, not just for those two electorates but for WA in general.

    Tunbull not prepared to fight for his budget, not prepared to face WA, does not care about WA etc etc.

    The debacle in Longman re a LNP candidate is also a free hit for labor. For the liberals not to have war gamed the HC outcome is unbelievable and the fact the hold up in selection may be down to dual citizenship is unforgivable.

    Cheers.

  4. I really can’t see many parallels with John Howard and Caligula

    Caligula had Senator Incitatus who was a horse.

    Howard had numerous Senators that were horse’s arses.

  5. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 8:57 pm

    …”Putting your demented Grandpa out for public ridicule is not a good strategy!”…


    I am willing to cover the cost of having you put out to pasture in a home of a type that you have earned the right to expect.
    Fruit for breakfast, Gruel served at 11:30am and 5:00pm Sharp.
    If you slip the orderly a quid or two each week, I’ll get you a nice warm spot in the sun each day, where you can stare off into the middle distance and think of things you are no longer capable of explaining to anyone.
    I’ll also make sure someone comes around to wipe the dribble off your chin every hour, on the hour.
    Would that make you happy?

  6. Disavow all Empathy @ #1059 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 9:14 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 8:57 pm

    …”Putting your demented Grandpa out for public ridicule is not a good strategy!”…


    I am willing to cover the cost of having you put out to pasture in a home of a type that you have earned the right to expect.
    Fruit for breakfast, Gruel served at 11:30am and 5:00pm Sharp.
    If you slip me a quid or two each week, I’ll get you a nice warm spot in the sun each day, where you can stare off into the middle distance and think of things you are no longer capable of explaining to anyone.
    I’ll also make sure someone comes around to wipe the dribble off your chin every hour, on the hour.
    Would that make you happy?

    How they hanging!

  7. Greensborough Grower,
    Yes, there’s enough exploitation and humiliation of women going on in real life. I don’t need to see it on TV. 🙂

  8. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 9:17 pm

    …”How they hanging!”…


    I already explained this to you.

    Where is the nurse?
    Get me a tissue.

  9. The Hill tweets

    Mueller issues grand jury subpoena to Roger Stone adviser: http://hill.cm/1BDQoGZ https://twitter.com/thehill/status/997074519834746880/photo/1

    Special counsel Robert Mueller has subpoenaed a social media specialist who previously worked for Trump campaign adviser Roger Stone, according to a report.

    A lawyer for social media and Twitter expert Jason Sullivan told Reuters that two subpoenas were delivered last week to Sullivan’s lawyers.

    The report says the subpoenas seem to indicate that Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election is partly focusing on Stone and his communications with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

  10. @Cat-

    “I have been trying to watch ‘The Handmaids Tale’ for the first time.

    I can’t keep doing it. It’s too depressing”

    Just think of it as training to accept what will happen when Trump is impeached and President Pence rolls out Gilead.

  11. Donald Trump tweets

    Congratulations America, we are now into the second year of the greatest Witch Hunt in American History…and there is still No Collusion and No Obstruction. The only Collusion was that done by Democrats who were unable to win an Election despite the spending of far more money!

  12. Caligula Germanicus was a sexually perverted sadist.
    He murdered and enslaved more non-Romans than any other Emperor prior or post.

  13. jenauthor,

    Exactly.

    A well prepared political machine leaves nothing to chance.

    Stirring a few lib selection internals as well may be a bonus.

    Cheers.

  14. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 9:36 pm

    …”If you want to cut your own throat, don’t come to me for a bandage”…


    If you walked into any pub I was in charge of, I’d pay my least favorite local 2 pots of free beer to drag you into the car park and give you a jolly good sorting out.

  15. C@tmomma @ #1049 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 9:07 pm

    I have been trying to watch ‘The Handmaids Tale’ for the first time.

    I can’t keep doing it. It’s too depressing!

    You should watch it from the beginning. It is a gripping and (possibly) prophetic vision of the way the US could go if the Republican RWNJs have their way.

  16. Greensborough Growler @ #1026 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 5:24 pm

    Heard earlier on the radio that 50% of Australian voters are ineligible to stand for Parliament accodring to the Reynolds inquiry!

    That’s a misleading figure and statement.

    None of these people are barred from Parliament however they do need to take some action to do so, be that resign their employment, divest any financial dealings with the Commonwealth or renounce any other citizenships. 🙂

  17. Barney in Go Dau @ #1077 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 9:44 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1026 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 5:24 pm

    Heard earlier on the radio that 50% of Australian voters are ineligible to stand for Parliament accodring to the Reynolds inquiry!

    That’s a misleading figure and statement.

    None of these people are barred from Parliament however they do need to take some action to do so, be that resign their employment, divest any financial dealings with the Commonwealth or renounce any other citizenships. 🙂

    Yes, I was about to post the same thing. This is a very disingenuous campaign.

  18. Disavow all Empathy @ #1074 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 9:42 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 9:36 pm

    …”If you want to cut your own throat, don’t come to me for a bandage”…


    If you walked into any pub I was in charge of, I’d pay my least favorite local 2 pots of free beer to drag you into the car park and give you a jolly good sorting out.

    I drink at the Lower Plenty hotel.

    Come up and see me some time!

  19. Disavow all Empathy @ #1072 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:42 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 9:36 pm

    …”If you want to cut your own throat, don’t come to me for a bandage”…


    If you walked into any pub I was in charge of, I’d pay my least favorite local 2 pots of free beer to drag you into the car park and give you a jolly good sorting out.

    That is way out of line threatening violence at any poster!!!!

  20. DAE – re Caligula

    “He murdered and enslaved more non-Romans than any other Emperor prior or post.”

    Not even close. As Jove incarnate his greatest (only) military conquest was over his mortal enemy Neptune. He marched his Germanic and Gallic legions to the sea and had them cast their pillum into the waves and got them to collect shells from the shore as bounty and tribute – which he subsequently paraded in the Triumph he celebrated upon his eternal to Rome. Barking mad.

  21. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 9:47 pm

    …”I drink at the Lower Plenty hotel.
    Come up and see me some time!”…


    I will.
    What does 2 points of meth cost in that particular shithole?

  22. I’ve just started the Handmaid’s Tale. Elisabeth Moss is good but I feel the supporting cast doesn’t hold a candle to the movie version from the eighties. Faye Dunaway as Serena Joy struck just the right “Washington Wife” tone and Robert Duval was so much more believable as a stern military fascist than the amiable looking Fiennes.

  23. Barney in Go Dau @ #1077 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 9:44 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1026 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 5:24 pm

    Heard earlier on the radio that 50% of Australian voters are ineligible to stand for Parliament accodring to the Reynolds inquiry!

    That’s a misleading figure and statement.

    None of these people are barred from Parliament however they do need to take some action to do so, be that resign their employment, divest any financial dealings with the Commonwealth or renounce any other citizenships. 🙂

    1. I did say it was a radio report.
    2. The HC might differ from your interpretation.

    Change/Abolish S44 is my solution. Don’t really care how it’s done!

  24. Donald Trump tweets

    Wow, word seems to be coming out that the Obama FBI “SPIED ON THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN WITH AN IMBEDDED INFORMANT.” Andrew McCarthy says, “There’s probably no doubt that they had at least one confidential informant in the campaign.” If so, this is bigger than Watergate!

  25. GG,

    My dear old dad taught me at a early age not to worry about the loud mouth mouthing off and threatening all sorts but be more worried about the silent low key one at the back. That was the one.

    I am sure Disavow fits into the first group and I am sure you don’t give a ratz arse !

    Forever be mellow.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  26. At this point in time stories about 50 % of Australians being ineligible to stand for Parliament as a result of the latest HC decision may work in labor favour.

    Doesn’t really matter if it it is true or not.

    Good night all.

  27. William Bowe says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    …”Knock it off, DoE”…


    OK mate, I will, if you give the same advice to the person who is a much greater smartarse than me.

  28. There are at least some Republicans willing to stand up to the Trump administration. I’ve had my issues with Bill Kristol over the years, esp his Palin stardust years. But at least he’s come good now when it counts that there is total incompetent moron in the WH.

    Bill KristolVerified account@BillKristol
    21m21 minutes ago
    America actually does deserve a measure of congratulation: Our legal system and political and civic institutions have stood up reasonably well under the assault of a demagogue, aided by his uninformed supporters and his sophisticated enablers.

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