Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential’s post-budget poll records a gentle shift to the Coalition on voting intention, and a generally favourable response to the budget.

Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Boerwar @ #1099 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 5:32 pm

    Ann and Jane could link up sith Lucy and do some serious damage between now and the election.
    Hell hath no fury like a Liberal woman of no merit scorned.

    The last Liberal moderates who took a stance against the numpty Liberals were those two women Senators who crossed the floor in defiance of Abbott and supported carbon pricing.

  3. GG:

    And the extent to which Cash is up to her neck in it is still yet to be revealed.

    It’s beyond time for this corrupt, inept group of leaners to be tossed out on their asses.

  4. Poroti
    I imagine the eight commercial barra fishers in the NT will not be pleased wjen they put two and two together.

  7. The New York Times tweets

    Reports found that top officials at a high school in Oregon had fostered hostile conditions for gay and lesbian students, hesitated to intervene after reports of sexual harassment and retaliated against a school counselor https://nyti.ms/2LafeiS

  11. Where are all those national security, law n order, patriot type Republicans?

    Jon FavreauVerified account@jonfavs
    6h6 hours ago
    Well, took longer than I thought, but we’ve finally reached the collusion isn’t a crime phase. Expect all the worst people in Republican media to start making this argument now.

  12. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 7:12 pm

    …”How they hanging?”…

    …
    In a marginally more attractive fashion than yours, I expect.

  14. Confessions says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 7:05 pm

    Great to be at the @Purple_Bombers @EssendonFC annual #IDAHOBIT event – great hearing from two members about the positive impact that being part of the group has had on them individually- it’s like a family + important source of support.Means the world when our clubs support us

    …”What is this referring to?”…

    …
    Provincialism???

  17. Sally McManus tweets

    Just a remind:
    You can sack us.
    You can tap our phones;
    You can raid our offices.
    You can punish our leaders.
    You can bring in laws to police us,
    Set up Royal Commissions to vilify us
    You can fine us, or jail us.
    But you will never defeat us.

  18. This is a seriously good rejoinder!

    “What do you think she’s about,” Giuliani said, referring to Clifford, during an appearance on the Fox Business Network, “and her lawyer who’s, you know, an ambulance chaser? Money, money, money, money.”

    Avenatti did not take kindly to the allegation, offering up a typical cutting retort on Twitter about the only ambulance he’s ever chased “is the one you are driving right now in a desperate attempt to save this presidency.”

    https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2018/05/14/answering-critics-avenatti-says-slaying-goliaths-is-his-business-model/?cmp=share_twitter&slreturn=20180417060640

  19. GG:

    He’s not backing down at all!

    Michael AvenattiVerified account@MichaelAvenatti
    7h7 hours ago
    Mr. Giuliani – have you even tried a single lawsuit to a jury verdict in the last 15 yrs? Have you learned the facts of the case yet? They are not that complicated FYI. Do you need cliff notes on tape? #LongPastPrimeTime #OutToPasture #Tired #DazedConfused

  20. Confessions @ #1019 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 8:11 pm

    GG:

    He’s not backing down at all!

    Michael AvenattiVerified account@MichaelAvenatti
    7h7 hours ago
    Mr. Giuliani – have you even tried a single lawsuit to a jury verdict in the last 15 yrs? Have you learned the facts of the case yet? They are not that complicated FYI. Do you need cliff notes on tape? #LongPastPrimeTime #OutToPasture #Tired #DazedConfused

    I hope he’s a Democrat!

  21. Boerwar

    Of course not. Businesses taking short cuts to save money have priority. Some of the peasantry dying is just the price that needs to be paid for higher profits.

  22. Stephen Mayne tweets

    With 60% of the vote counted, the Lord Mayoral primaries are:

    Sally Capp: 10,577 (26.3%)
    Jen Yang: 6131 (15.2%)
    Rohan Leppert: 5702 (14.2%)
    Sally Warhaft: 3529 (8.8%)
    Gary Morgan 3485 (8.7%)
    Ken Ong: 3384 (8.4%)

    Final 2PP could yet be Capp v Leppert but Capp still hot fave.

  24. Tristo says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 6:48 pm

    …”What ever people think about John Howard, if this has emerged when he was Prime Minister he would have very likely had an independent audit done of every MP. There would have been a large number of resignations and by-elections although”…

    …
    John Howard was the most irresponsible person to be left in charge of an empire, since the 14th Ceasar of Rome.
    I have noticed that you often make semi-favorable comments about the old rat, is he a moderate hero to you?

  26. Disavow all Empathy @ #1024 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 8:19 pm

    Tristo says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 6:48 pm

    …”What ever people think about John Howard, if this has emerged when he was Prime Minister he would have very likely had an independent audit done of every MP. There would have been a large number of resignations and by-elections although”…

    …
    John Howard was the most irresponsible person to be left in charge of an empire, since the 14th Ceasar of Rome.
    I have noticed that you often make semi-favorable comments about the old rat, is he a moderate hero to you?

    I’m more sanguine.

    Howard’s political antenna was far more developed than Turnbull. MT wants to be liked. Howard wanted power!

  28. Heard earlier on the radio that 50% of Australian voters are ineligible to stand for Parliament accodring to the Reynolds inquiry!

  29. Howard’s “political antenna” reputation is I think all down to Arfur’s skills. Howard late in his regime’s era suddenly started making some gawd awful and uncharacteristic blunders re what the ‘mob’ wanted. The clangers started when Arfur departed. Coincidence ? I think not.

  31. Greensborough Growler @ #1130 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    Heard earlier on the radio that 50% of Australian voters are ineligible to stand for Parliament accodring to the Reynolds inquiry!

    I thought the Committee recommendations were quite reasonable, except obviously not going to be implemented in the current political climate.

  32. poroti @ #1029 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 8:27 pm

    Howard’s “political antenna” reputation is I think all down to Arfur’s skills. Howard late in his regime’s era suddenly started making some gawd awful and uncharacteristic blunders re what the ‘mob’ wanted. The clangers started when Arfur departed. Coincidence ? I think not.

    Everyone owns the glory…….

  33. Israel Folau will undoubtedly burn in hell. Or at the very least that is my fervent hope. I have prayed for such divine retribution every day since he last played for Queensland at rugby league in 2009. No one rats on Queensland. No one. Especially for mere money.
    Next time you quote scripture Israel, why not cite that bit about rendering unto Caesar, champ. You are a pampered, overpaid celebrity whose form does not warrant the money you earn. Moreover, you are contracted by an organisation that at least pays lip service to inclusion and sexual diversity. If you take the quid, champion, you toe the company line. Just like the workers Sally McManus represents. I cannot wait for Nick Cater and Judith Sloan, so horrified about the threat of union militancy and erosion of the power of bosses, to defend a News Limited colleague who suggests the ABC should expand its online business or secure cricket television rights.

    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/folau-raised-question-of-hell-so-let-s-really-look-at-who-belongs-there-20180517-p4zfva.html?ignorePublicState=true&pcrypt=aGZyZT1wbmd1cmV2YXIuYW5seWJlQHNudmVzbmt6cnF2bi5wYnoubmgmZ3Z6cmZnbnpjPTE1MjY1Mjg1NDU%3D&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq

  34. Mahathir wants to charge Najib with money laundering and related financial crimes.

    History should tell him it would be more efficient to charge him with sodomy.

  35. @DAE –

    “John Howard was the most irresponsible person to be left in charge of an empire, since the 14th Ceasar of Rome.”

    Depending on whether you count Giaus Julius Caesar Imperator Dictator or Augustus as the “first Caesar” you seem to be throwing shade on the memory of either Trajan or Hadrian – widely considered to be the two greatest of the Good Emperors. Or you are actually praising Howard. … please explain.

  36. GG:

    I’ve expressed similar raised-eyebrows re Avenatti Everywhere syndrome, concluding he’s trying to get the best deal for his client. I would be very surprised if he is colluding with Giuliani / Trump.

    My view of Giuliani is that he is an incompetent, way past his prime partisan hack who should’ve been retired years ago. He once said America never had a terrorist attack before the election of Obama, clearly whiting out the one terrorist attack in America he used to try to make a name for himself.

  37. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 7:28 pm

    $30,000,000 in NAIF funds are to go to a privately owned Barra farm at a time when wild catch fishers are going broke because the market has collapsed.

    #HEYMATEonBludger

    …
    Barramundi is a second rate eating fish, it is however the best estuarine fighting fish in this country, and top ten in the world.
    Sport fishing, catch and release of it is a tourism drawcard for both Queensland and the Northern Territory, and worth way more than $30 million bucks.

    #youareanuninformedidiot

    #dosomeresearch

  38. Confessions @ #1031 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 8:31 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1130 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    Heard earlier on the radio that 50% of Australian voters are ineligible to stand for Parliament accodring to the Reynolds inquiry!

    I thought the Committee recommendations were quite reasonable, except obviously not going to be implemented in the current political climate.

    It makes a Referendum a logical prospect!

  39. Confessions @ #1036 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 8:36 pm

    GG:

    I’ve expressed similar raised-eyebrows re Avenatti Everywhere syndrome, concluding he’s trying to get the best deal for his client. I would be very surprised if he is colluding with Giuliani / Trump.

    My view of Giuliani is that he is an incompetent, way past his prime partisan hack who should’ve been retired years ago. He once said America never had a terrorist attack before the election of Obama, clearly whiting out the one terrorist attack in America he used to try to make a name for himself.

    I’ve seen your posts and agree.

    However, nothing is what it seem in US Politics and I’m always suspicious of a new clean skin in this environment.

    My personal view is that Trump politics is just wrestling without the sincerity atm.

  40. It makes a Referendum a logical prospect!

    Well, sure. But not a very realistic one. I believe Turnbull has already ruled it out, but even if he hadn’t, imagine how indigenous Australians would feel having their referendum to acknowledge them in the constitution put behind one that seeks to keep federal MPs in their jobs?

  41. Confessions @ #1040 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 8:46 pm

    It makes a Referendum a logical prospect!

    Well, sure. But not a very realistic one. I believe Turnbull has already ruled it out, but even if he hadn’t, imagine how indigenous Australians would feel having their referendum to acknowledge them in the constitution put behind one that seeks to keep federal MPs in their jobs?

    If 50% of people are disenfranchised from participating, I reckon there’s a good base right there.

    Turnbull is focussed on survival.

    The last thing he needs are good ideas!

  42. My personal view is that Trump politics is just wrestling without the sincerity atm.

    It seems to me to be all geared around managing the fallout of the Mueller Investigation Bullet Train, which is fast approaching at lightning speed.

    Giuliani has been picked to do what former Trump lawyers haven’t been able to do: defend the president while still maintaining their professional credibility and standing in the sector. If Giuliani gets shredded in the process it doesn’t matter, he’s not a practising lawyer and can simply disappear to retirement when all washes up.

  43. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, May 17, 2018 at 8:36 pm

    @DAE –

    “John Howard was the most irresponsible person to be left in charge of an empire, since the 14th Ceasar of Rome.”

    …”Depending on whether you count Giaus Julius Caesar Imperator Dictator or Augustus as the “first Caesar” you seem to be throwing shade on the memory of either Trajan or Hadrian – widely considered to be the two greatest of the Good Emperors. Or you are actually praising Howard. … please explain”…

    …
    I knew there was at least one person here who was much, much more smarterer than me, and it does not surprise me in the least, that it happened to be a fellow who comprehends what a complete and utter disaster the replacement of Kevin Rudd with Julia Gillard was for our country.

    You are correct, I just made 14th Ceasar up, cos it were the first number what came into me ‘noggin.
    I was thinking of Caligula the German, a latter day John Howard…

  44. Confessions @ #1042 Thursday, May 17th, 2018 – 8:51 pm

    My personal view is that Trump politics is just wrestling without the sincerity atm.

    It seems to me to be all geared around managing the fallout of the Mueller Investigation Bullet Train, which is fast approaching at lightning speed.

    Giuliani has been picked to do what former Trump lawyers haven’t been able to do: defend the president while still maintaining their professional credibility and standing in the sector. If Giuliani gets shredded in the process it doesn’t matter, he’s not a practising lawyer and can simply disappear to retirement when all washes up.

    Putting your demented Grandpa out for public ridicule is not a good strategy!

  45. Labor seem to be taking this Fremantle by-election pretty seriously. I got call canvassed five minutes ago, and now the Bill Shorten-tron has called to hook me up to a virtual town hall meeting that will apparently begin shortly.

  47. GG:

    I know Victoria has a different take on Giuliani, not sure if you’ve caught her comments. I might be wrong, but I do genuinely feel he is that ‘demented old grandpa’ brought out to manage the fallout.

    His Fox News comments would suggest Team Trump is moving away from the ‘NO COLLUSION!’ insistence the president has maintained from the get go into a new realm of ‘So what it isn’t illegal’.

  49. I have been trying to watch ‘The Handmaids Tale’ for the first time.

    I can’t keep doing it. It’s too depressing!

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