Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46

Good news for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, but Labor keeps its nose in front in the post-budget Newspoll, and lands well clear in Ipsos.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.

By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.

Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.

Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.

Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.

The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46”

Comments Page 24 of 28
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  2. ‘lizzie says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 6:22 pm

    Boerwar

    As I have no knowledge of his sons I assumed they were whit(ish) and found no explanation in the conversation. Perhaps I missed something.’

    No worries. He is married to: Jasbir Kaur, aka, “Jessie”. Both names are Sikh.

  4. adrian says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 5:30 pm

    …”The ratio of bemused having a go at confessions, to visa versa would be about 20 to 1, for those who care”…

    …
    That makes perfect sense, as she only gets to see about 1 in 20 of his posts, but why would you feel compelled to keep score for such a pointless thing?

  5. C@tmomma

    Turn your outrageometer down and you might just realise the allusion was to the behaviour of guests and audience.

  6. @Tricot

    The absorption of Family First into the Australian Conservatives was going to mean that Family First members faced a choice of being a part of the Australian Conservatives or join another party.

    Lucy decided that the Liberals would better fit her ideology or career goals better. Although there should be more people in parliament from a non-european background than they are. For example; there are very few politicians from a Chinese or Indian (Lisa Singh is the only federal politician from an Indian background) background for example, yet both groups make up around 10% of the total population.

    You just don’t get that in Britain or Canada for example.

  7. Turnbull moves from one staged appearance to the next. None of it is sincere!

    Yes, and the latest wrinkle in his schtick is the colonisation of ABC24 by Turnbull and his Ministers multiple times a day, for periods of about 15 minutes each! Bill Shorten is lucky if he gets 5-10 minutes, tops.

  8. Here is the real-time lesson I promised you.

    bemused says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 6:07 pm
    puffytmd @ #1098 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:22 pm

    I’ve been at work today so have not kept up with the conservation but I have been thinking about the responses to my question last night,
    this one:
    Why do men, who have no reason to, hate women to the extent they will disempower them, financially distress them, stalk, harrass, torture and kill them, while women, who have every reason to, do not hate men to the point of ignoring what men do to them and still try to establish congenial relations with them?

    And I was accused of misandry, and of being offensive.

    Now, in a week where I see two of my sister-women and their children murdered by a man, my despair and rage and grief and protest is met by respectful (I hope) silence from the many, and pushback from some. I am told to complain is misandry and ‘what about what women do’.

    So I will express it another way, as a real-time example, a lesson if you will.

    Last night in the PB room.

    Brown Person: ‘You Pink People keep dis-empowering us, financially distressing us, stalking, raping and killing us, you hate us, when we do not hate you no matter what you do. We try to be friends with you. See those six dead brown people killed by a pink person last week, that is 21 this year. Please stop killing us.’

    very bemused Pink Person: ‘What are you talking about? I do not hate you, no-one in this room is trying to kill you. You are a tedious annoying offensive racist for saying this. And anyway, you kill your kids. Shut up and go away.’

    And it ever has been thus.

    More highly offensive fantasy directed at all men rather than the small percentage who do.

    And that, my dear Bludgers and Lurkers, is why women are still being murdered by men.

  9. lizzie @ #1143 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 3:27 pm

    Kristina Keneally‏Verified account @KKeneally · 28m28 minutes ago

    Ok, I don’t usually laugh out loud at @Bowenchris media releases. But the absurdity of Scott Morrison’s statement got me. The Treasurer of Australia does not understand – at all – the circumstances in which a person receives a cash refund for dividend imputation.

    I really like KK, she doesn’t miss much!! 🙂

  11. @C@tmomma

    I did not realise that, noted.

    Still it only makes 2 out of 226, when Indian Australians make up 5% of the population.

    Also As far as I know only Penny Wong, Gai Brodtmann and Ian Goodenough are of Chinese descent.

  12. Tristo @ #1160 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:37 pm

    @C@tmomma

    I did not realise that, noted.

    Still it only makes 2 out of 226, when Indian Australians make up 5% of the population.

    You should also know that Labor has an internal grouping called ‘Sub Continent Friends of Labor’. It is a very large group! So I think the lag will eventually be breached.

    Also, we are only just getting a modicum of numbers of Indigenous Australians in parliament! In my mind they go to the front of the queue.

  14. C@tmomma @ #1127 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:20 pm

    KayJay @ #1135 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:11 pm

    Congratulations to William for the new pages, aptly entitled The Jerry Springer Show Revisited. 👍👍

    Do you really think it’s appropriate to make a joke about Domestic Violence? If I am correct in thinking that is what you are slyly referring to.

    You are not correct. I have said not one word about the Domestic Violence argument.

    What I was slyly thinking about, in my sly fashion is the following.

    Diogenes @ #1102 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    It’s probably not going to help the discussion much but I’m currently reading the true story of a murderous lesbian nun sex gang.

    For what it’s worth I try to never enter into the back and forth arguments.

    The incomprehensible shouty folk appearing on somebodies ABC are also a little too much for me – quietly pursuing my solitary, peaceful life.

    Goodnight all. ☮

  15. @C@tmomma

    That is an interesting development, thanks for filling me on this information. Having candidates from a Chinese or Indian background would help Labor win and retain seats where there are large populations of both.

    For example; A Labor candidate from the Chinese background would help Labor a lot in Chisholm and Deakin, which both have a large Chinese population. Not to mention shoring up the Labor vote in Glen Waverley area which are now a part of Hotham.

  18. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 6:20 pm

    KayJay @ #1135 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:11 pm

    …”Do you really think it’s appropriate to make a joke about Domestic Violence? If I am correct in thinking that is what you are slyly referring to”…

    …
    Oh for the ever fucking love of Christ, could you possibly find anyone on this blog who less deserving of your bullshit to have a crack at?

  22. Wouldn’t you guess? I wonder who votes for cruelty. (No prizes)

    Shorten_Suite ‏ @Shorten_Suite

    Cabinet has split on live sheep exports – so the planned lock-up and announcement tomorrow of the McCarthy Review into the industry has been CANCELLED #auspol

  25. BW
    The novice who exposed it was a Princess from the Hohenzollern family.

    lizzie
    “In one of those rather sleazy True Story magazines?”
    No, it’s called The Nuns of Sant’Ambrogio and the author is a German professor of Vatican history.

  26. People with a disability are waiting months for simple callbacks when they complain of errors or inadequacies with their national disability insurance scheme support plan, the ombudsman has found.

    The commonwealth ombudsman on Tuesday released the findings of its investigation into hundreds of complaints about the National Disability Insurance Agency’s ability to handle requests for reviews of support plans.

    Reviews are typically requested when a plan or a decision is thought to be inadequate or contain an error – for example, if a person has been denied funding for wheelchair car modifications.

    The ombudsman found a significant backlog in dealing with review requests.

    The NDIA was, as of February, dealing with about 8,100 reviews and receiving about 620 new review requests per week. Some reviews are taking nine months to complete.

    The ombudsman linked the problem to a lack of resourcing, competing priorities and pressure on the NDIA to meet its rollout targets.

    The finding is likely to be seized on by Labor, which has long complained that the staffing cap imposed on the NDIA is hobbling the rollout of the landmark scheme.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/15/damning-report-finds-ndis-complaints-ignored-for-months?CMP=soc_568

  29. @C@tmomma

    Gilmore is one of the most marginal Liberal seats (margin 0.7%) in the country, if the challenge to Ann Sudmalis is successful it is a near certainty that Labor would win it.

  31. Tristo @ #1179 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:55 pm

    @C@tmomma

    Gilmore is one of the most marginal Liberal seats (margin 0.7%) in the country, if the challenge is successful it is a near certainty that Labor would win it.

    Cue story about how Labor are preventing the Libs having more women on their side of the parliament!

  32. KayJay says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 6:48 pm

    …”Yes, you are quite right.
    I will try to be more illuminating in future and also include the reference.
    Thank you”…

    …
    You should be on the receiving end of an apology, not the other way around.

    And good night to you, knackers.

  33. This budget delivered by Scott Morrison will win the next election for the LNP and Turnbull retains his job as PM and ALP will have there tails between there legs after a big lost to our great LNP

  34. @Greensborough Growler

    I used to live in Bendigo until 2012 and what I heard about then Labor member Steve Gibbons that in parliament he was terrible. However his personal vote was reasonable something like 3%, he must have been a decent enough local member. Maybe the current member for Gilmore is a better local member than performer in parliament.

    @Wayne

    The budget failed in moving much of the two party preferred vote. It might succeed in moving those former Coalition voters who are intending to vote for minor parties to vote for the Coalition again.

  36. William reckoned I was anti-semitic because I thought Israel had traded off the Holocaust for too long.

    Well, look what Trump’s idiot son-in-law and his Barbie doll daughter have been up to in Jerusalem lately. I hope that champagne tasted good while scores of Palestinians died and hundreds were wounded by Israeli bullets.

    The event was grotesque. It was a consummation of the cynical alliance between hawkish Jews and Zionist evangelicals who believe that the return of Jews to Israel will usher in the apocalypse and the return of Christ, after which Jews who don’t convert will burn forever.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/a-grotesque-spectacle-and-a-trump-square-in-jerusalem-20180515-p4zfcy.html

    Of course the Jews know that Jesus wasn’t the Messiah. He probably wasn’t even a naughty boy. But hey, when you’re running a religious theme park like Jerusalem you have to cater for everybody, right? Business is business, after all. And everybody knows the other guy is going to hell.

    So now we have “Trump Square”, Jerusalem. The brand is everything to the Donald.

    Each religion is certain it has the measure of the other. Christians see the Jews as but a stepping stone to (Christian) Eternity. The Jews pity the Christians for their naivety. And everybody hates the Muslims.

    What can possibly go wrong? And how soon?

  37. Tristo @ #1184 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:59 pm

    @Greensborough Growler

    I used to live in Bendigo until 2012 and what I heard about then Labor member Steve Gibbons that in parliament he was terrible. However his personal vote was reasonable something like 3%, he must have been a decent enough local member. Maybe the current member for Gilmore is a better local member than performer in parliament.

    Possibly and the hardworking local Member can be a boost for the party. Howard had that through a number of hardworking candidates in marginal seats which kept him in office for a fair while. I’m thinking Fran Bailey and Jaqui Kelly.

    But, if the swing is on Sudamalis or whomever replaces her is toast!

  39. @Greensborough Growler

    Sharkie I predict will win the Mayo by-election, Mayo is the kind of seat which has almost voted for or have voted for centrist candidates provided they are high profile and good enough. I believe Sharkie must have earned her chops as the member for Mayo it could be hard to dislodge her. Witness the performance of Andrew Wilkie in the safe Labor seat of Denison since he got elected in 2010, he will hold the seat until he retires.

  40. Which proves my point that the LNP will win the next election by a landslide and ALP will only have 55 seats only

  41. Bushfire Bill says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 7:01 pm

    …”William reckoned I was anti-semitic because I thought Israel had traded off the Holocaust for too long”…

    …
    There is a lot of that about lately.

    I have a theory that fluctuations in the use of the term “anti-semitic” is in direct proportion to the number of innocent people that Israel happens to be slaughtering at any given point in time.

    This may be a simple coincidence though.

  43. @Greensborough Growler

    In regional and rural electorates this is more of the case than in the urban ones. However you are right that the current member for Gilmore will be defeated in a sizeable Labor gain.

    But I not understand why the local liberal branch are launching a pre-selection challenge, given they must know the chances of Labor winning Gilmore are high.

  44. Tristo @ #1189 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 7:05 pm

    @Greensborough Growler

    Sharkie I predict will win the Mayo by-election, Mayo is the kind of seat which has almost voted for or have voted for centrist candidates provided they are high profile and good enough. I believe Sharkie must have earned her chops as the member for Mayo it could be hard to dislodge her. Witness the performance of Andrew Wilkie in the safe Labor seat of Denison since he got elected in 2010, he will hold the seat until he retires.

    All the talk is that the Libs expect to win it back. However, the history so far following these S44 by elections is that the incumbent holds sway. I read somewhere that the Government has not won a by-election off the party holding the seat since 1921.

    So there are mixed signs.

  45. Someone must be dumb at labor not suggesting that LNP criticized Labor for GFC emergency with free money to help pay for bills etc.

    But then suggest Tax cuts of about similar amount.

  46. Good evening all,

    Chris Bowen will be at the NPC tomorrow.

    Expect a lot more meat to be added to the budget in reply speech by Bill Shorten.

    Turnbull and Morrison think they have sneaked / snuck ? their budget debacle through without much noise or real scrutiny. Patting themselves on the back atm.

    Bowen may just change that tomorrow. He will certainly make the comparison very clear.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  47. @Wayne

    I believe the Coalition will consider winning say 68 seats as a great result, I believe they will win around 65, with Labor winning 80 (which is nearly the number Labor won in 2007 under Rudd).

  49. @Greensborough Growler

    In 1929 the Labor government at the Franklin by-election won the seat after the independent member died.

    The SA state liberals believe that the collapse of the SA Best vote at the recent state election are making them optimistic for regaining Mayo.

  50. Greensborough Growler @ #1178 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 4:00 pm

    Things are going just swimmingly!

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/05/15/13/22/sharkie-circling-downer-in-mayo-poll

    Downer riding backwards!

    She distanced herself from previous comments that Western Australia is treated unfairly by the GST and that South Australia is getting more than its fair share.

    “I was an employee of the Institute of Public Affairs, it’s a think tank and it is engaged in a lot of policy research,” she told reporters on Tuesday.

    “As an employee of that think tank I …

    … was not allowed to think, not that it would have made much difference.

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