Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46

Good news for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, but Labor keeps its nose in front in the post-budget Newspoll, and lands well clear in Ipsos.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.

By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.

Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.

Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.

Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.

The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46”

Comments Page 25 of 28
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  1. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 11:46 am
    Another link —

    ‘The mean age of the infant-victim was 4.9 months old… Perpetrator—The caretaker-perpetrator had a history of abuse in childhood (23%), was male (84%), the biological father of the victim (77%), and a first-time parent (54%)..’

    So what is your point?

    All males in the world should top themselves because an extremely small proportion of fathers kill their children?

    Let’s get some perspective here. The overall, TOTAL homicide rate in Australia was 1.1 per 100 000 in 2011 -2012, which was itself a drop from previous years.

    38% of that is between family members, some perps were male, some female. Child murders were a lot less than that again, since all homicides involving family members are in that figure.

    Or 0.4 per 100 000. Total, men and women perps lumped together.

    Just what is your agenda? Why do you have such a set against men?

    In 2015 there were 5 deaths per 100 000 due to motor vehicle accidents, more than 12 times the rate for total intra family murders, adults and children.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows suicide is the leading cause of death among children aged 5 to 17 years old.

    This anti-male campaign by you and others is a joke.


    In 2001–02, the overall homicide rate was 1.8 per 100,000 population. Since then, the homicide rate has declined (1.1 per 100,000 in 2011–12), with a decrease in the number of homicides recorded across all relationship categories. The proportion of homicides that occurred between family members was 38 percent in 2011–12 (range 32%–53%, annually over the last ten years) with an average of 101 deaths in each of the preceding ten years.

    https://aic.gov.au/publications/rip/rip38

  3. @Greensborough Growler

    You must be serious that Christopher Porter is picking a fight with the Queensland state government just before a by-election in Longman which they need to win in order to retain government.

    I believe a good description of this current federal government is a whole bunch of chickens with their heads just cut off.

  4. don

    in 2001–02, the overall homicide rate was 1.8 per 100,000 population. Since then, the homicide rate has declined (1.1 per 100,000 in 2011–12),

    Wow that is a Yuuuge drop, 39% . Was 2001-2 a particularly bad year compared to years before that or 2011-12 a significantly lower year ?

  6. The L/NP are talking up their chances in the two Labor held seats that they are contesting. It’s going to take some turd polishing and historical revisionism if they have large swings against them.

  8. Jewellery is going to donate to the slush fund to help Liberal women buy their way in where their merit has previously failed.

    Hesus wept.

  9. Boerwar:

    I don’t see how a slush fund helps women get preselected for Liberal seats if they don’t have members votes to start with.

  10. Check out this government site on homicide. A million and one stats. Like Thursday and Sunday being the most “popular” days. Looks like for Women the danger is “Intimate partners”.

    79% of intimate partner homicide victims in 2012–14 were female.

    While for the chaps.

    More than 80% of victims killed by a friend or acquaintance or by a stranger in 2012–14 were male.

    http://crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/

  11. C
    Stack branches, buy votes, tout themselves in local media with paid advertising and paid advertorials, buy Russian influence, buy friends on Face Book…
    the usual.
    The staggering thing is that the Liberals are touting slush funds as a way of fixing their woman failure.

  13. @grimace

    I don’t think the swings against the Tasmanian Liberals and QLD LNP will be terribly huge, if they are below 5.1% (the average against governments since 1983) the Coalition can talk up the results.

    Because in Tasmania Labor support in 2016 was just 4% shy of their 2010 and 1972 results which were around 60% of the two party preferred vote. In fact their 2016 two party result wast at the level they achieved in 2007!

    Who knows what the swing to Labor will be in Longman, in reality they are starting from behind because of the win due to better than expected preference flows in 2016.

  14. Barney in Go Dau @ #1173 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:52 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1162 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 3:48 pm

    This breaks my heart. Shorten and Labor appear to have misplaced their humanity. Again. #auspol #greens #BringThemHere @rachelbaxendale pic.twitter.com/BFW669XzCc— Janet Rice (@janet_rice) May 15, 2018

    What, do want him to lie?

    Sorry, but The Greens’ attempts to embarrass Labor over something they can do nothing about, #BringThemHere, just strikes me as more of the same cynical political exploitation of the refugee issue which The Greens, and the Coalition along with them, have been engaging in since 2007, when Labor came to power federally.

  16. adrian says:

    Speaking of Jewellery, is Leigh4Sales constantly interrupting her?

    Only to take selfies of the two 😉

  17. Tristo

    I have bad news for you as the LNP will win Longman Braddon and Mayo
    So they will have a four seat majority

  18. Boerwar @ #1211 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 7:49 pm

    C
    Stack branches, buy votes, tout themselves in local media with paid advertising and paid advertorials, buy Russian influence, buy friends on Face Book…
    the usual.
    The staggering thing is that the Liberals are touting slush funds as a way of fixing their woman failure.

    The Liberals think every problem can be remedied with money.

  19. Boerwar:

    Yes all that is true but it’s a short term problem. Unless the party becomes a party women want to join and advocate within they’re just going to get the same old, same old pale, male and stale.

  20. Why we never should fund private and church:

    Josh Taylor
    ‏Verified account @joshgnosis
    3h3 hours ago

    Christian Schools In Australia Want To Fire LGBTI Teachers Living “Double Lives”

  22. I’m sitting here LOLling at the Georgina Downer article.

    She says it was awful, as an 18 year-old, to have to make the decision to move interstate in order to get a job, and is standing so other 18 year-olds today don’t have to make the same hard decision.

    What she neglects to mention (or doesn’t realise) is that, when she was 18 (in 1998), the Liberal Party was in government in SA, (having won the 1993 election and the follow-up 1997 election) – and it is right now.

    I suspect the Party won’t thank her for the observation that – real or imagined – it’s harder to get a job when they’re in power 😉

  24. Confessions @ #1219 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 7:56 pm

    Boerwar:

    Yes all that is true but it’s a short term problem. Unless the party becomes a party women want to join and advocate within they’re just going to get the same old, same old pale, male and stale.

    This was a point made on The Drum tonight. Wrt Women voters. They are not voting for the Coalition in large numbers because they don’t see themselves and their issues reflected in the Coalition and it’s policies.

  25. chinda63

    Considering who mummy and daddy are I call bullshit she could not find a job in SA. Connections get you jobs . Perhaps she meant a job commensurate with her own sense of entitlement ?

  26. don

    Continue to misread and misrepresent my posts, rather than tackling the issues.

    I don’t know why you refuse to accept there is a problem, or why you take this discussion so personally, but that is your problem, not mine.

  27. Wayne: you clearly aren’t from SA, let alone from the Adelaide Hills.

    The word on the ground is that people are unimpressed with this blow-in from Melbourne – regardless of her “famous” name (and in some cases, because of it). There is nothing more likely to rouse the ire of the good burghers of the non rusted-on portion of the Adelaide Hills than being told that someone will be a shoo-in because of the deeds of other members of their family, doubly so when said someone doesn’t even live in the area.

    Rebekha Sharkie, on the other hand, has grown into her role, is a hard-working local member and is proving to be very popular.

    Sharkie will win again – and increase her margin – is my prediction.

  31. poroti @ #1225 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 8:03 pm

    chinda63

    Considering who mummy and daddy are I call bullshit she could not find a job in SA. Connections get you jobs . Perhaps she meant a job commensurate with her own sense of entitlement ?

    Exackerly. Wasn’t young Georgina gifted a Chevening Scholarship in DFAT, straight out of Uni? So this, ‘I had to go to Melbourne to find a job at 18’ story doesn’t stack up!

  34. chinda63 @ #1227 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 8:06 pm

    Wayne: you clearly aren’t from SA, let alone from the Adelaide Hills.

    The word on the ground is that people are unimpressed about this blow-in from Melbourne – regardless of her “famous” name (and in some cases, because of it). There is nothing more likely to rouse the ire of the good burghers of the non rusted-on portion of the Adelaide Hills than being told that someone will be a shoo-in because of the deeds of other members of their family, doubly so when said someone doesn’t even live in the area.

    Rebekha Sharkie, on the other hand, has grown into her role, is a hard-working local member and is proving to be very popular.

    Sharkie will win again – and increase her margin – is my prediction.

    I hope you are right. But, as I said earlier, reports I’ve read are that the Libs are confident.

  35. @C@tmomma

    It is obvious that some in the Coalition believe winning the young men attracted to the “alt-right” who are critical of feminism among other things is the way to retain power.

  38. “Perhaps she meant a job commensurate with her own sense of entitlement ?”

    I was thinking the same thing. If she couldn’t get such a job, maybe she should have accepted a Job in McDonalds (if they’d have her). Or been true to her beliefs and accepted a dangerous, dirty, insecure job paying under minimum wage, which is what the Liberal-IPA-Murdoch Coalition want the unemployed to do.

  39. Su Dharmapala
    ‏ @SuDharmapala
    5h5 hours ago

    Su Dharmapala Retweeted Derryn Hinch

    Every time Derryn – Senator for Victoria – I go through any airport – I am pulled aside and tested. I am 5ft 2, female and usually travelling for business or pleasure. Every time. The only people who don’t believe racial profiling exists are white people.

  40. @Barney in Go Dau

    That is a weird choice to go to Melbourne instead of Adelaide, since it is a Group of Eight and Sandstone University to boot.

  41. chinda63, so if Georgina Downer doesn’t get elected in Mayo, does that mean, -gasp- she might have to actually get a job ?

  43. Kristina Keneally
    ‏Verified account @KKeneally
    2h2 hours ago

    Ok, I don’t usually laugh out loud at @Bowenchris media releases. But the absurdity of Scott Morrison’s statement got me. The Treasurer of Australia does not understand – at all – the circumstances in which a person receives a cash refund for dividend imputation.

  45. I wonder if Labor is giving Sharkie a helping hand in Mayo – things like administrative support for her campaign, foot soldiers door knocking and that sort of thing?

    The article posted previously on Sharkie vs Downer said that Sharkie didn’t expect Xenophon to be able to help much.

  46. Guardian Australia
    ‏Verified account @GuardianAus
    2m2 minutes ago

    Julie Bishop defends record on China after former ambassador’s call for her to be sacked

  47. Try asking Indigenous youth whether there is racial profiling in Australia!

    They are policed at a rate between 10 and 20 times the rate of non-Indigenous rate. At the upper end of the scale NO group anywhere in the world is subject to similar rates of policing.

    By ‘policed’, I mean stopped, questioned, pulled over on the road in a random fashion.

    I do NOT mean arrested and charged. Just one example:

    https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/nitv-news/article/2017/10/26/nsw-police-policy-found-destructively-target-indigenous-youth

  50. @Wayne

    No, because they aren’t contesting in two of them, including one Labor marginal (Perth). Labor will definitely win Braddon and narrowly win Longman. Sharkie will win Mayo maybe with an increased majority, especially given Labor will not likely contest Mayo.

    While the media especially News Limited believe that the Coalition could win this election and Bill Shorten’s leadership will be challenged. They frankly live on another planet mentally, the only consolation for the Coalition is their defeat will be relatively narrow (winning around 65 seats).

    @C@tmomma

    Sharkie will get a sophomore surge that is certain, Keay in Braddon could get a substinal one (Tasmanian MHRs often have large personal votes). Lamb will get a comparatively small one being an outer suburban electorates. Plus all three will get sympathy votes for their troubles they faced with s.44, the electorate is generally pretty understanding.

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