The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.
By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.
Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.
Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.
Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.
The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.
On senator Lucy … Senator Cash has probably assured her that the Libs are a shoo-in for 5 or 6 SA senators next time around because they are riding a crest of a eave and will destroy ALP & Greens at the next election (the kind of stuff Bernardi told her before the last election).
So she’ll be a loyal little senator and fall for it.
Has anyone seen psyclaw and bemused in the same room together?
The ratio of bemused having a go at confessions, to visa versa would be about 20 to 1, for those who care.
Observer,
As I say those commenting have no idea
Yes, I think you’ll find that some of us do. Please review the thoughtful contributions of Mr Newbie or Boris. Plus, I could tell you some stories that would make your hair curl. If you want me to prove my bona fides, I will, I have a lot of examples to choose from. Suffice to say, only a stout physical and mental constitution and the realisation that, to survive, I had to htfu, saved me from insanity.
At the end of the day however, it is about the children and the environment they have the absolute right to be raised in
Well, you know, women can’t always avail themselves of the luxury of that decision. My children had to live with seeing their father throw a hot cup of coffee on their mother before they went to school and their mother just have to grin and bear it because she knew that they needed to get to school, other wise the school would report us to Family Services and Child Protection, not that they didn’t anyway because the kids would go to school and cry about what they had experienced in the morning, but at least they were still getting to school so we were cut some slack. And it would have been nice if I could just run away with the kids but that wasn’t even possible because one of them was so sick he was in and out of hospital on a regular basis so I needed a sort of stable home base to function out of. This also meant I couldn’t work because I often had to drop everything to room in with him for the duration of his hospital stays. So we ‘stayed together for the kids’, as the saying goes.
I could go on about OUR court dealings, but I won’t bore you with any more gory details. Suffice to say, don’t make silly statements such as you have above, you are NOT on your Pat Malone.
Oh, and yes, in my disempowered way, I tried to give as good as I copped. Mostly without success, sometimes striking it lucky. So go ahead and call me a hypocrite. I call it survival.
The Drum having a love-in on the subject of JulieB’s competence.
poroti @ #1096 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:22 pm
They just want to make Australia grate again!
poroti @ #1097 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 2:22 pm
That is simply bizarre!
What are they thinking?
adrian @ #1102 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:30 pm
psyclaw and bemused are a mutual admiration society of two. Both like to strike out with spite in defense of each other and tag team target certain posters. I’m over both of them.
But I should talk, I suppose. 😳
Greensborough Growler
Damn, bet on a “Blessed are the cheese makers” 🙂
For David Kilcullen fans, he’s on Matter of Fact with Stan Grant tonight.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1106 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:33 pm
Looks like the AEC might have cut the cheese on him!
My guess is you have a relatively unknown MP looking to get re-elected. So any publicity or controversy raises his profile..
zoomster @ #1100 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 3:27 pm
The block button is your friend Zoomster, as is the realisation that you don’t have to continue to engage on every issue, particularly once the discussion gets to a point where hours/days have passed where nothing new has been contributed on the subject at hand and the protagonists have long since barricaded themselves behind their strongly held view on the subject and have proceeded to engage in simultaneous & repetitive monologues on the issue with added character assessments of each other for variety.
You will note that it has been days since any of the protagonists have added anything new to their monologues, nor have they taken into account any of the strongly held views expressed by others over the course of the last few days.
There are plenty of opinions you are not going to agree with, just visit Andrew Bolt’s website and read the reader comments, for example. For the sake of your sanity, just scroll past.
@Greensborough Growler
I would argue Mornington and Mt Eliza are a better fit for Flinders, than Dunkley. Because both are in the Mornington Peninsula Shire and share more in common with other parts of Flinders, then they do with Dunkley. However Carrum Downs is in the Frankston council area and shares more in common with the rest of the Frankston council area, then it does with the suburbs nearby belonging to Issacs.
The redistribution in Dunkley was the most reasonable in the whole of Victoria having the whole Frankston council area in it. The inclusion of Mt Eliza was necessary to keep the whole electorate within quotas, so the comprise is perfectly acceptable.
MacNamara on the other hand was a mess, with just including Windsor. Caulfield North should have been moved into Higgins (which is a better fit ) and the Prahran-South Yarra area moved into MacNamara. It would have boosted the Labor margin a little bit.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1106 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 3:33 pm
Anybody can make a submission, including those who should have the decorum to stay out of it. It doesn’t mean the Election Commission will pay any attention to it.
Just today I saw two examples of Malcolm’s competence. IINet sent me a letter offering a internet plan of 82mbps on the NBN100, and secondly, glancing at a newspaper I see TPG offering a 42mbps plan on NBN50.
Even the ISPs have discounted the effectiveness of the NBN.
Well done Malcolm, you are a moron.
lizzie @ #1095 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:43 pm
Aw, Jeez. Dickhead pictures. 😇
It’s probably not going to help the discussion much but I’m currently reading the true story of a murderous lesbian nun sex gang.
grimace
Basically what I have decided…
zoomster
I am only one vote, but I always appreciate your thoughtful contributions (even if it leads to argument!). Just block the stupid ad/or abusive. 🙂
Diogenes @ #1117 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:51 pm
Of course you are!
Dio
A distant byway of the Hohenzollerns, I presume.
Diogenes
In one of those rather sleazy True Story magazines? (I didn’t realise for years that those stories are written for the money, not for the truth.)
lizzie @ #1118 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:55 pm
+1
Please don’t go zoomster.
Panic not, comrades: I am a stubborn cuss.
Absence of Empathy says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 5:20 pm
briefly says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 12:40 pm
…”That A-o-E and bemused both disagree with and/or dismiss the points made tends to affirm the validity of the argument.
Denial is an instrument of misogyny”…
…
Do you remember posting this?
Would you care to recant your spurious slur?
My original remarks were not directed at you. You responded, using the first person singular case, as if I had intended to accuse you of racism, sexism and trotskyism. I did none of these things, but you chose to construe the text as if I had.
I don’t recant from anything.
Denial of racism where it is evident is inherently also racist; denial of sexism where it exists is equally another dimension of sexism and serves to compound it.
I’m interested in violence from several standpoints, but mostly because I have experienced it and am familiar with the contours of fear, of threat, of being effectively incarcerated by it. I am acquainted with violence carried out in the name of love but for the sake of power and self-gratification. I am on first name terms with hate.
So take your indignation elsewhere. I am not responsible for it. I’m simply trying to contribute to the discussion rather than to arouse your bile.
Greensborough Growler @ #1125 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 3:01 pm
But in defence of Morrison, he wouldn’t have known that he was lying! 🙂
zoomster @ #1109 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:59 pm
A nice turn of phrase.
The blog will settle down. Nobody, I suspect, ever changes an opinion and a lot of interesting information comes to hand regularly.
You know all this. Keep on cussing, cousin. ❥☮
Greg Sheridan made a bit of an ass of himself on The Drum tonight. And someone should tell him that stabbing a finger towards a woman (or man) in an argument always adds aggression to the discussion.
puffytmd @ #1098 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:22 pm
More highly offensive fantasy directed at all men rather than the small percentage who do bad things.
In announcing this O’Dwyer managed to do the old Greens ‘same same’ spiel. That is to say she claimed that there is no difference between Labor and Liberal when it comes to female MPs.
Mr Turnbull has announced that some Wentworth something or other will be tipping in money as well.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/15/kelly-odwyer-pledges-50000-for-liberal-womens-fighting-fund
Anyway, interesting to see that they reckon that Liberal women, who can only be promoted on merit, will now be able to buy their way in.
Is that what all the Liberal men do?
I believe the Hard Right will at least preference the Coalition in the hope that Malcolm Turnbull gets replaced as PM sometime in the following term with somebody they like. Also maybe get some senators elected from whatever parties they vote for.
I can’t see them preferring Labor over the Coalition which they see as even worse than Malcolm Turnbull.
zoomster @ #1100 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:27 pm
Well then, take a stance against the offensive posters.
Oh no… can’t do that. They are mainly women.
Boerwar
Yes, I noticed that O’Dwyer went back into history to ‘prove’ that Labor was no better than Libs.
Off to an ALP fund-raiser. Have fun people. 😀
Congratulations to William for the new pages, aptly entitled The Jerry Springer Show Revisited. 👍👍
‘lizzie says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 6:07 pm
Greg Sheridan made a bit of an ass of himself on The Drum tonight. And someone should tell him that stabbing a finger towards a woman (or man) in an argument always adds aggression to the discussion.’
Actually, one of the panel had made a major fuckwit of herself and this triggered genuine anger in Sheridan.
She arrogantly and crassly dragged his sons into to the discussion. There was no need to drag his family into the conversation. Her implication was that HIS sons would be alright when it came to racial profiling. Sheridan’s sons are NOT white.
How about: dragging in young family members, and for a totally wrong reason, always adds aggression to the discussion?
Barney in Go Dau @ #1127 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:06 pm
Morrison is a chronic bullduster. He’s the Treasurer of the country with.the responsibility to get his pronouncements right regarding such matters. Talking off the top of his head is unacceptable and he must be made accountable for disseminating information designed to obfuscate and deceive.
Boerwar
I don’t think that was his only moment of anger. He likes to take over the conversation.
lizzie
I agree that he tries to dominate, including by interrupting, by posing rhetorical questions and then answering them at length and by framing the discussion to suit his viewpoint.
But the abuse of his sons was foul and he responded with justified anger accordingly. (As a regular reader of Sheridan in the OZ, Sheridan goes to a great deal of trouble to separate his family and his public life.)
Just had the NBN Fibre to the Node connected last week through Optus on NBN 100 plan, our area has just only recently been connected, after being connected i could not get any better than 28Mbps even though the node is about 250 metres away. After numerous phone calls and web chats Optus eventually said they could only supply 28Mbps through the node and offered to downgrade me to NBN50 or change providers without penalty. Have been with Optus for 15 years, changing is a great big hassle.
I have decided to complain the Telecommunication Ombudsman and my local member.
KayJay @ #1135 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:11 pm
Do you really think it’s appropriate to make a joke about Domestic Violence? If I am correct in thinking that is what you are slyly referring to.
Bodgie
Copper chaos!
While the Senator Lindy thing in SA is not a done deal yet, I believe the Liberals and the good Senator deserve one another. At the time of her defection to the Liberals, Turnbull was all gooey and plastered the sugar everywhere about how this hard working, aspirational woman would fit hand in glove with the great Liberal Party of Australia. She, in turn, having junked Family First for a better offer, gushed how she was so pleased to be in Oz and be able to join such an outfit as the LP of Oz. As I said, these rank opportunists deserve one another.
Boerwar
As I have no knowledge of his sons I assumed they were whit(ish) and found no explanation in the conversation. Perhaps I missed something.
C@tmomma @ #1142 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 4:20 pm
He’s referring to the conduct of the guests – their habit of talking/yelling at each other and not listening to anything that anyone else is saying.
@The Silver Bodgie, BK
Labor was right on the money for building fibre to premises, although they would meant the effective re-nationalisation of the telecommunication network. That consequence of the NBN as originally intended I do not see as a bad thing.
Tricot @ #1144 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:22 pm
Remember Barnaby Joyce’s re-election night? “The Band was back together” et al.
Turnbull moves from one staged appearance to the next. None of it is sincere!
He’s referring to the conduct of the guests – their habit of talking/yelling at each other and not listening to anything that anyone else is saying.
Oh, okay. It was just a very obscure point made.