Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46

Good news for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, but Labor keeps its nose in front in the post-budget Newspoll, and lands well clear in Ipsos.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.

By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.

Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.

Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.

Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.

The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46”

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  3. Reposted from previous

    I think we can all agree that violence is unacceptable.

    Discussing one of the most prevelant types of violence in our society, men on women in domestic situations in no way detracts from, deligitimises or minimises other types of violence or their victims.

    For a lot of reasons the overwhelming majority of victims of domestic violence are woman and children, and the overwhelming majority of perpetrators are men.

    That does not mean men can’t be victims or that women or children can’t be perpetrators. For a lot of reasons in our society the relatively rare situation of a man being a victim of DV is not treated as seriously as would be the case for a woman. Both cases of violence are equally wrong.

  5. 1. No one is saying that men are not victims of DV. I notice this is a strawperson often raised when we have this discussion.

    2. The objective evidence – accepted by experts across the planet – is that men are overwhelmingly the perpetrators of D.V.. Generally, btw, we’re not talking of the brain snap which results in an infant death, usually connected (in either parent) with the recognised emotional turmoil in the first few months after birth, but a prolonged, consistent, pattern of behaviour.

    I’m not sure why there are men who shy away from confronting the evidence and what it implies, but the problem cannot be tackled properly whilst these denialist attitudes are maintained.

    Certainly the implication is that these men think the experts are lying about D.V. – that there is some kind of conspiracy which governments and other agencies across the political spectrum are party to, and some kind of advantage in pretending something is happening which isn’t.

    I find the alternative very hard to believe – that women are lying so well, faking injuries and (presumably) deaths, just to trick the world’s governments and institutions into giving them more attention (or something; I’m not quite sure what the motivation would be).

    There is a problem with our culture (it’s shared) which has something to do with the way men are raised and socialised. For example, men are more likely, by far, to kill multiple people (with cars, or bombs, or guns); to be suicide bombers, etc. There are more men, by far, in prison for violent crimes.

    So any solution to problems around violence has to look at men. And men have to be prepared to look at what’s going on, too, without seeing any criticism of their gender as being personal.

    Yes Zoomster, well said.

  8. Hmmm. Not good on the surface, will be interesting to see what the primaries are, before the current voodoo is applied to preference allocation.

    Also, MSM piling onto shorten over ‘citizenship fiasco’ may have had a dampening effect.

    That said, the government’s position with the budget is untenable. The more people focus on how the $10 buck a week bribe is a smoke screen for restributing billions upwards the more the ‘gloss’ will come off.

  11. As William does not want the discussion to continue, my final answer to Bemused, Don and anyone else interested is at the bottom of the previous thread.

  12. I thought Newspoll was using that new method of recording results making 53-47 0r 52-48 look like 51-49.

  13. In the teaser article on the Oz site, only Newspoll primaries mentioned so far are L/NP 39 (+1) ALP 38 (+1)

    We’ll have to wait to midnight to get the full primary figures.

  14. “A point that should be noted about the Coalition’s apparent improvement in Newspoll is that at least part of it would seem to be down to an adjustment in their preference allocations, from a model based purely on results from the 2016 election to one which gives the Coalition a stronger flow of One Nation preferences, presumably based on the experience of the Queensland and Western Australian state election”

  15. Confessions @ #5 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:46 pm

    1. No one is saying that men are not victims of DV. I notice this is a strawperson often raised when we have this discussion.

    2. The objective evidence – accepted by experts across the planet – is that men are overwhelmingly the perpetrators of D.V.. Generally, btw, we’re not talking of the brain snap which results in an infant death, usually connected (in either parent) with the recognised emotional turmoil in the first few months after birth, but a prolonged, consistent, pattern of behaviour.

    I’m not sure why there are men who shy away from confronting the evidence and what it implies, but the problem cannot be tackled properly whilst these denialist attitudes are maintained.

    Certainly the implication is that these men think the experts are lying about D.V. – that there is some kind of conspiracy which governments and other agencies across the political spectrum are party to, and some kind of advantage in pretending something is happening which isn’t.

    I find the alternative very hard to believe – that women are lying so well, faking injuries and (presumably) deaths, just to trick the world’s governments and institutions into giving them more attention (or something; I’m not quite sure what the motivation would be).

    There is a problem with our culture (it’s shared) which has something to do with the way men are raised and socialised. For example, men are more likely, by far, to kill multiple people (with cars, or bombs, or guns); to be suicide bombers, etc. There are more men, by far, in prison for violent crimes.

    So any solution to problems around violence has to look at men. And men have to be prepared to look at what’s going on, too, without seeing any criticism of their gender as being personal.

    Yes Zoomster, well said.

    Hmmm, will this get Confessions banned for defying William’s edict?
    Nope. The teflon coating will protect her.

  16. Labor need to work on their believability factor. Due to a concerted campaign from the Coalition who quibble at and aver about every new idea that Labor presents to the electorate, plus rely on their mates in the media to tear it apart and tear it down on their behalf, people are sceptical about Labor. Just because.

    As for the solution to this conundrum, I guess they just have to keep plugging along, announcing good policy, but also I would advise getting bolshy with the government more. Show them the lack of respect they show Labor. And start hitting back at their jabs with some upper cuts of their own. Below the belt if necessary!

  17. Andrew_Earlwood @ #8 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:50 pm

    Hmmm. Not good on the surface, will be interesting to see what the primaries are, before the current voodoo is applied to preference allocation.

    Also, MSM piling onto shorten over ‘citizenship fiasco’ may have had a dampening effect.

    That said, the government’s position with the budget is untenable. The more people focus on how the $10 buck a week bribe is a smoke screen for restributing billions upwards the more the ‘gloss’ will come off.

    Yes, the budget will barely be having any effect, let alone Shorten’s reply.
    Need to wait at least another week for a reading factoring those in.

  18. Leroy @ #11 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:55 pm

    In the teaser article on the Oz site, only Newspoll primaries mentioned so far are L/NP 39 (+1) ALP 38 (+1)

    We’ll have to wait to midnight to get the full primary figures.

    Are the polls showing a trend AWAY from minor parties and back to the majors again, after a period of flirtation?

  19. Hmmm, will this get Confessions banned for defying William’s edict?
    Nope. The teflon coating will protect her.

    I edited my “new thread” comment on the previous post a few minutes after the event to add the injunction to which you refer, by which time the comment to which you refer had already been posted here.

  20. That is really low, Bemused.
    You haven managed to really get under my skin tonight. I do not block you, I actually have not installed the blocking program, but I wish the hell I had it tonight.

    Maybe I have had too much of this place and should not come here when women are murdered.

  21. On a primary vote of 38%, Labor is up by 3% on the 2016 result. The Coalition at 39% is down by 3% since the last federal election. Also there is the margin of error to account for as well.

  22. Steve Davis

    Our great LNP are on the way back and Turnbull will lead the coalition to victory at the next election and also LNP are going to win the seat of Longman and Braddon

  24. Good evening all,

    Status quo is good for labor after the concentration on Shorten.

    The budget reply was the campaign launch for Labor. Voters will need some time to focus. The budget reply was only on Thursday night. Nobody would have had a chance to really consider what Shorten had to say.

    Bowen will speak at the NPC on Wednesday and put more meat on the bones of the Shorten reply.

    Shorten has not done too bad considering. He had recovered from much worse.

    The bottom line is no budget bounce. PPM is good for headlines and no more.

    Cheers.

  25. C@tmomma says:

    Are the polls showing a trend AWAY from minor parties and back to the majors again, after a period of flirtation?

    There is the dissolution of the Xenophon party and the stagnation of Bernardi’s Conservatives.

  26. I wonder if the discrepancy between Essential and Newspoll will continue and which one is now more accurate.

  29. What is Australia coming to, lost my faith in a lot of Australian people if this is who they would vote for Malcolm Turnbull is nothing but rubbish

  31. Steve Davis

    So you are argeeing with me that the LNP are on the way back and will win the seat of Longman and Braddon and also on course to win the next election 🙁

  32. Vanessa
    There are plenty who still think that Turnbull is going to make them as rich as he is.They are usually the employees who think that one day they will be Chairman of the Board, even though they’re only at shitkicking level. Ive worked with dozens of them.

  33. William Bowe @ #19 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:04 pm

    Hmmm, will this get Confessions banned for defying William’s edict?
    Nope. The teflon coating will protect her.

    I edited my “new thread” comment on the previous post a few minutes after the event to add the injunction to which you refer, by which time the comment to which you refer had already been posted here.

    Very tricky William!
    Lucky you did not catch a whole lot of us. 😉

  34. @Lee

    The best the Coalition can hope at this stage is a minority government with the support of McGowan (if she gets re-elected), Katter and Sharkie.

    On the proposed boundaries the Coalition would need to keep their net losses to just one seat to achieve this.

    I predict Labor will comfortably retain Braddon, the Liberals aren’t contesting in Fremantle and Perth!. Longman will be close, however I believe Labor will win that. Also Sharkie should be re-elected in Mayo.

    Shorten does not seem concerned about the prospect of Labor not getting a majority of One Nation preferences. That means Labor is probably confident of retaining Longman.

  36. How come this poll says 54-46 ?

    Ben Cubby
    ‏Verified account @bencubby
    3m3 minutes ago

    Monday’s front page: government’s popularity takes a hit post-budget + the WA tragedy + corrupt supplier on telco’s shortlist. #realnews

  37. puffytmd @ #20 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:05 pm

    That is really low, Bemused.
    You haven managed to really get under my skin tonight. I do not block you, I actually have not installed the blocking program, but I wish the hell I had it tonight.

    Maybe I have had too much of this place and should not come here when women are murdered.

    I have no idea what you are referring to.

  44. The Fairfax poll will put a dent in the obvious MSM attack on Shorten after Newspoll.

    It will all be lost in the noise of competing results.

    The take out is simply no pat on the back and bounce for the government despite the attack on Shorten.

    Keep the faith.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  46. Yup IPSOS

    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    3m3 minutes ago

    #Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-2) ALP 54 (+2) #auspol

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