Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46

Good news for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, but Labor keeps its nose in front in the post-budget Newspoll, and lands well clear in Ipsos.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.

By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.

Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.

Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.

Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.

The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46”

Comments Page 2 of 28
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  1. this is all ok
    libs and murdoch have given their best for a week
    labor have had bump
    i want labor with big win so we can see beyond libs to what real govt looks like
    (without greens prominent and without presuming labor is full quid

  3. You know very well, Bemused. Of all the Dilbert cartoons you pick that one, in the context of the topic that was under discussion.

  5. puffytmd @ #53 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:30 pm

    You know very well, Bemused. Of all the Dilbert cartoons you pick that one, in the context of the topic that was under discussion.

    LOL… it just happened to arrive in my inbox a few minutes before I posted it.
    Such amazing coincidences have happened a few times. It is kinda spooky.
    BTW, almost every place I have ever worked reckons Scott Adams must be one of their workmates.

  6. bemused,

    I think you are spot on re the ABC, Newscorp, Fairfax and these polls.

    The bottom line is one poll really cancels out the other re headlines and Shorten under pressure etc. It will all be noise.

    The MSM were so looking forward to more ammunition to attack Shorten. Too bad.

    Bottom line – no bounce.

    Cheers.

  8. Plus the front page of the SMH calling the shootings premiditated.

    Juanita PhillipsVerified account@Juanita_Phillip
    6h6 hours ago
    The “good bloke” descriptor in domestic murder cases is so automatic the headline writer used it even though nobody in the story actually described him that way.

    :large

  9. William Bowe @ #57 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:36 pm

    Almost every place I have ever worked reckons Scott Adams is a talentless shitbag.

    You must work in some very sad places.
    To cheer you up I will put you on Scott’s mailing list so you will get a new Dilbert each day to brighten up your day.
    No thanks required. 😛

  10. There never is any bounce in general over budgets.The MSM always think their is going to be one.They would have hated that 54-46 poll coming out just after they had written that article boosting Turnbull with that 51-49 Newspoll.

  13. I imagine bemused is well aware that the author of the Dilbert cartoons is a rabid Trump supporter. Any port in a storm, bemused?

  14. doyley @ #56 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:36 pm

    bemused,

    I think you are spot on re the ABC, Newscorp, Fairfax and these polls.

    The bottom line is one poll really cancels out the other re headlines and Shorten under pressure etc. It will all be noise.

    The MSM were so looking forward to more ammunition to attack Shorten. Too bad.

    Bottom line – no bounce.

    Cheers.

    Not the slightest element of skill in that.

  16. Lee @ #28 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:14 pm

    Steve Davis

    So you are argeeing with me that the LNP are on the way back and will win the seat of Longman and Braddon and also on course to win the next election 🙁

    Or, do you agree with me that Labor are on course to win the next election in a landslide and the Coalition are slipping and sliding away? Please see Ipsos. 🙂

  19. I don’t put much trust in IPSOS, since they have got sampling issues apparent with unusually high Greens vote but it is at least one other poll.

    Newspoll should have come 52-48 by most calculations. Seems a bit massaged. Something for everyone I suppose.

    I also think as ON loses primary votes to Coalition the preference flow to Coalition should also reduce. It appears to me at low levels of vote ON gets votes from both ALP and Coalition voters but the higher ON vote is the more it is drawn from Coalition.

  21. I also reckon the policy announced today, cheap and bloody simple as, wrt to forcing overseas car manufacturers to hand over their bibles to local mechanics, was an absolute corker and will appeal across a broad swathe of the electorate. I have actually heard mechanics complaining about this very thing and knocking back work on cars because the computer programs in the new ones prevent them from using their diagnostic tools to repair any car they do not have the software for.

    Bill Shorten is a bloody genius! He has an absolute knack for knowing where the sweet spot is politically. All he has to do is overcome the perception problem and he’ll be another John Howard, but betterer!

  22. I’ll bet Fran Kelly and ABC bulletins will focus on the newspoll result and Oz reporting and not the ipsos.

  25. sustainable future @ #72 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:54 pm

    I’ll bet Fran Kelly and ABC bulletins will focus on the newspoll result and Oz reporting and not the ipsos.

    They use The Australian primarily because it is published in all states. This is no statement on the quality of its content. But I would be very surprised if Ipsos wasn’t also mentioned.

  26. jenauthor says:
    Sunday, May 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm
    I’d be interested to know when Ipsos was in the field and when Newspoll was …

    So would I Jen.

  28. Gorks says:
    Sunday, May 13, 2018 at 10:50 pm
    I don’t put much trust in IPSOS, since they have got sampling issues apparent with unusually high Greens vote but it is at least one other poll.

    Newspoll should have come 52-48 by most calculations. Seems a bit massaged. Something for everyone I suppose.

    I also think as ON loses primary votes to Coalition the preference flow to Coalition should also reduce. It appears to me at low levels of vote ON gets votes from both ALP and Coalition voters but the higher ON vote is the more it is drawn from Coalition.

    I agree with that Gorks (about the ON prefs). That very thought occurred to me not all that long ago. It makes sense IMO.

  30. Good evening all,

    I have tended to stay out of the whole domestic violence issue but it really does give me the shits that it continues being portrayed in some sections of the MSM as if it is a modern phenomenon and politicians and commentators speak about their shock and how appalled they are when yet another case hits the headlines.

    I am the full time carer for my dear 95 ( this year ) year old Mum. Over the last couple of years Mum has started to talk about her life and her early years growing up. Stories I have never heard before.

    My darling grandmother ( mums mother ) was a victim of domestic violence from her bastard husband back in the 1930’s and 1940’s , something I never knew.

    Domestic violence is not some new development. It had always been there but it has been ignored and put away in the dark corners of society until floating recently to the surface.

    Any man who attacks a woman either emotionally or physically is a dog who deserves to go to jail or a quick smack from a decent man. Sadly, these solutions will not have any great effect of DV just as Domestic Violence orders etc have no effect. Just pieces of paper. Weak Men will continue to try to assert superiority by bashing their wife or partner.

    What we need to do as a starting point is to concentrate on the next generations of men and women and initiate awareness programmes at primary schools and high schools that push the point to 1)boys that is not right to hit or abuse girls and 2) to girls that it is not natural or right to accept violence from boys as part of the ” natural way of things “. At the moment the battle is being lost and men continue to attack women no matter what we try. Perhaps salvation lies in the next generations if we act now.

    I am not a expert and realise the problem is much more wide spread than male on female but I really am angry at the experiences my lovely gran had to endure and something needs to be done now.

    Cheers and a great night to all.

  31. I think PHON will be mostly a spent force outside of Queensland by the next Federal election.

    PHON is a personality cult, and as with all such organisations, it is inherently unstable. On that basis alone the preferencing behaviour will be unstable and unpredictable.

    The underlying politics that has allowed PHON will remain and we’ll have to endure the next flash in the pan personality cult (Palmer United, NXT, JLN etc).

  32. grimace,

    Re the credibility of Ipsos.

    ATM it does not really matter.

    It will run interference for labor against the predictable Murdoch and MSM attack on Shorten that would have sucked air out of this coming week.

    Labor in crisis, Shorten leadership under pressure etc etc.

    All now lost in the noise of competing polls.

    Cheers.

  34. I’m doing hopeful extrapolation here: but if the MOE for Newspoll is 3% … and the same is true for the others (reachtel, Essential, Ipsos) and the current spread is 51 (low) and 54 (high) …

    The Newspoll MOE is leaning to the lower end … ??? 😆

  35. Checking in quickly from Miami airport on my way to Mexico for a conference. Depressed by the Newspoll result, but glad I went to this new thread and found Ipsos. I am happy to split the difference.

    Also, I saw a herd of about 7 capybaras in Brazil. They were grazing near a canal, but on university grounds, so probably well protected. They are amazing. Long-haired guinea pigs as big as Staffordshire terriers, but with longer legs.

  36. So far there don’t seem to be any Ipsos poll stories in the online Fairfax publications. Previously I’m sure that they had stories up around 9pm. The articles have obviously been written as evidenced by the photo of tomorrow’s paper edition.

    I can understand that it would be difficult for the Fairfax journos to promote a 54-46 Ipsos result, given their general attitude to L/NP and Labor. Maybe they’re still choking on their weetbix.

  37. William, interesting re: Scott Adams.

    A surprisingly large number of science communicators are unpleasant people. It is almost as if the talent to cut through to a mass audience requires that sort of personality. However, I have some science communicator friends who are really lovely and genuine Hunan beings.

  38. @grimace

    I agree with your assessments with One Nation, especially the unpredictability of the party. Hence Bill Shorten can issue an letter saying Labor will preference them last. Because nobody has any idea how One Nation preferences are going to flow, given it is likely it will vary according to the electorate.

  39. Jen, that it what Williams BludgerTrack™ will tell us when he next updates it.

    For me the fact that all of them (assuming Essential is similar) has Labor ahead is significant.

  43. Darn @ #76 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:57 pm

    jenauthor says:
    Sunday, May 13, 2018 at 10:27 pm
    I’d be interested to know when Ipsos was in the field and when Newspoll was …

    So would I Jen.

    doyley @ #80 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 11:10 pm

    Good evening all,

    I have tended to stay out of the whole domestic violence issue but it really does give me the shits that it continues being portrayed in some sections of the MSM as if it is a modern phenomenon and politicians and commentators speak about their shock and how appalled they are when yet another case hits the headlines.

    I am the full time carer for my dear 95 ( this year ) year old Mum. Over the last couple of years Mum has started to talk about her life and her early years growing up. Stories I have never heard before.

    My darling grandmother ( mums mother ) was a victim of domestic violence from her bastard husband back in the 1930’s and 1940’s , something I never knew.

    Domestic violence is not some new development. It had always been there but it has been ignored and put away in the dark corners of society until floating recently to the surface.

    Any man who attacks a woman either emotionally or physically is a dog who deserves to go to jail or a quick smack from a decent man. Sadly, these solutions will not have any great effect of DV just as Domestic Violence orders etc have no effect. Just pieces of paper. Weak Men will continue to try to assert superiority by bashing their wife or partner.

    What we need to do as a starting point is to concentrate on the next generations of men and women and initiate awareness programmes at primary schools and high schools that push the point to 1)boys that is not right to hit or abuse girls and 2) to girls that it is not natural or right to accept violence from boys as part of the ” natural way of things “. At the moment the battle is being lost and men continue to attack women no matter what we try. Perhaps salvation lies in the next generations if we act now.

    I am not a expert and realise the problem is much more wide spread than male on female but I really am angry at the experiences my lovely gran had to endure and something needs to be done now.

    Cheers and a great night to all.

    Fortunately society is changing for the better.
    I watched how the kids interacted at my granddaughters birthday party when she turned 8. Yeah, she had mostly girls there, but also 2 boys, twins. They all interacted very well and later I heard a story how one of the girls was getting bullied a bit at school and the two boys came to her assistance.

    The other factor I noted was the confidence the girls all showed. I doubt any boy would find them submissive if he tried any disrespect, bullying or other misbehaviour.

    Quite a delight to see actually.

    Another factor at work is the growing recognition of women’s sport and young girls having great sporting role models such as Sam Kerr, and the opportunity to play sport previously reserved for the boys. Whether they do or not doesn’t matter as much as the fact they can if they want to.

  46. Shorten seems to be the best ALP opposition leader in quite some time, possibly the best since Gough`s first stint as Opposition leader. He rarely seems to make a misstep and has more policy confidence.

  47. @Lee

    I don’t believe Labor will lose both seats (especially Braddon). Also in the old British dominions and the mother country the political pendulum has been swinging to the left in recent years. Look at the elections in Canada, New Zealand and the UK where the parties of the left won victories (Canada and New Zealand) or almost did (UK under a very left wing Labour leader) in recent elections. I predict Australia will go the same way and Labor win a comfortable majority at the forthcoming federal election.

  48. So, what are the chances of Prentice throwing a bomb under the government by quitting the ministry and parliamentary party to sit as an independent for the rest of the term?

  49. @Tom the first and best

    I agree Shorten is a unsung hero, he managed to rescue Labor and have the ALP almost win government after being defeated in a landslide just three years before.

    @caf
    The odds aren’t likely, however anything is possible with this government. Therefore; I can’t totally rule it out either.

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