The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.
By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.
Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.
Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.
Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.
The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.
Nick McKim tweets
People should be free to live without arbitrary harassment and being forced to carry ID wherever they go. https://twitter.com/NickMcKim/status/996245198362497024/photo/1
Dan Gulberry @ #994 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 2:08 pm
Point well made and taken in the spirit intended.
It just keeps bubbling away so I thought I might as well try to insert a bit of sanity into it since William is obviously not following through on his request it be dropped.
I very strongly agree with this, and I believe that what you’ve said is closely connected with Zoomster’s point that humans are very good at using culture to overcome base instinct.
I for one, do not necessarily buy the chromosome argument. You only have to observe the increase in male child-nurturing and the growing recognition of the existence of female aggression to realise the chromosomal argument is, at best, a shaky one. I think it more likely that our boys are simply taught by our culture to be physically violent. The vast majority of boys do not succumb to the most overt expressions of this physical violence, but many do, particularly as a way of acting out. It’s also worth pointing out that school-age girls are active participants in violence, just a different sort – where boys tend to punch, girls tend to ridicule. This is an early-age example of women participating in the enforcement of toxic hyper-masculinity.
Just as our culture causes DV and sexual violence, so too can our culture be made to do the opposite. Issues of gender inequality are intimately tied with other kinds of inequality, particularly economic inequality. Means of addressing these issues are well known, and only need to be implemented.
As far as airports are concerned (not condoning todays announcement in any way) just observations-
I have been to 50 countries in the last 10 years- most require you to show your ticket before you can even enter the airport building. No spectators or farewells in the terminal.
Nearly all require a ticket to enter the air side, again no spectators or shopping.
They all require ID before boarding a plane (if a plane crashed how would you really know who is aboard).
Our privatised airports make their money from you and loved ones parking your car, eating at restaurants and buying stuff at shops.
The business model actually reduces security, increases congestion and traffic, but no LNP Government will take on their mates who bought the airports.
Al Jazeera tweets
South Africa withdrew its ambassador to Israel, after Israeli forces killed 52 Palestinians on the Gaza border.
The government said that it “condemns in the strongest terms possible the latest act of violent aggression carried out by Israeli armed forces.” https://twitter.com/ajplus/status/996133332957122560/photo/1
‘Just like Mirabella losing her seat coincided with her increased media presence….’
Huh? So why is Bishop still there…Dutton, Malky, Scrote…Fredemburgers, Cash…et al?
The Palestinians who fled their homes during the fighting have had a legal right to go home since the conflict ended.
Israel has become a state run by gangsters.
Oh dear Downer is sunk
Political Alert tweets
Minister for Jobs and Innovation @SenatorCash will hold a doorstop with Assistant Minister @Anne_Ruston and the Liberal Candidate for Mayo, Georgina Downer, at 2:45pm #auspol
Republican Rick Wilson nails White House ‘with no decency, civility or humanity’ led by Trump — ‘a gigantic dumpster fire’ of a human being
During a panel discussion about the lack of civility in President Donald Trump’s White House, Republican strategist and commentator Rick Wilson explained how such behavior obviously comes from the top.
It seems everyone in the administration wants to internally reflect the leadership of Trump, Wilson explained.
“This is the lengthened shadow of a gigantic dumpster fire of a trashing human being,” Wilson said of the president. “These people are actively emulating his behavior. Which is to insult POWs, insult Gold Star families, insult the disabled, and to go at things in a way where the transgressive nature of the insult is more important to them than any kind of cohesion socially, any kind of civility.”
He went on to say that he understands politics is a “hard game,” but noted that once people are “off the field” you stop fighting against them.
“That includes people with terminal cancer,” Wilson continued. “You know, I’m not out there insulting Harry Reid. I don’t like his politics, but he’s got pancreatic cancer. John McCain has brain cancer. We ought to be praying for the man. Instead the White House drags this story day after day after day because they have no decency, civility or humanity.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/republican-rick-wilson-nails-white-house-no-decency-civility-humanity-led-trump-gigantic-dumpster-fire-human/
Just regarding the significant level of DV in lesbian relationships (about one in three according to what I have seen) can anyone please explain to me how this fits with the meme that the patriarchy is the cause of all DV?
(It’s a serious question)
Darn
Thus why I said toxic masculine culture makes men more prone to violence. I was specifically not excluding woman.
Just recently in the news a woman has stabbed a man. No idea if it was domestic or drugs or what ever.
I didn’t pay attention to the report.
JimmyD says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 2:28 pm
..all very pertinent, JimmyD. Violence has to be understood in order for it to be prevented…..
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 1:19 pm
…”Okay, so tell us what you have agreed with that others have posted?”…
…
Very little, but I don’t particularly see any point in doing so, this does not however imply that I disagree with much of what is said.
There is already quite enough backslapping going on around here without a requirement for further input from me.
If you like, perhaps you might request of the convenor of this blog, that he institute some system of likes/dislikes, a la Guardian or the SMH, whereby we might all cheer each other on as though we were a bunch of 14 year old’s on Facebook.
ABC Adelaide tweets
SA Liberal Senator Lucy Gichuhi’s political career facing abrupt end after less than four months https://ab.co/2IkvS1a #auspol https://twitter.com/abcadelaide/status/996234230081306624/photo/1
Edit: Does the ABC know something we don’t know about the election date given the heading?
We’re nearly a week out from the resignations … why have these by-elections not been scheduled?
I know I sound like a paranoid broken record… but there’s no reason to delay this.
Lamb has successfully renounced, took less than a week.
Gallagher would likely have not had an eligibility issue if she had asked the UK how long the process took and if there was an expedited process available.
In Gallaghers case the process was not irremediable and it appears Lambs likewise.
Similar to a candidate who lost out on a position because a current passport was needed and the applications closed in two weeks. Could argue this was unfair and restricted candidates who did not have a current passport until it is pointed out there is a rush service for passports.
But unfortunately the HC did not offer guidance on what it considered irremediable except for that being blocked from one election due to the actions of the overseas bureaucracy could not be considered as such.
Absence of Empathy @ #1014 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 2:49 pm
I love your style.
Boris @ #1017 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 2:54 pm
Fairly obvious steps that should have been taken originally.
I have zero sympathy for those caught out.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-15/lucy-gichuhis-political-career-facing-abrupt-end/9762808
She’s being shunted to 4th.
I wouldn’t be surprised if she quit the party, 4th (in South Australia) is a joke for a sitting Senator.
I would imagine from first preferences, we would have 1 Labor, 2 Liberal, Nick Xenophon (whatever his party is called by then), with the 5th spot an easy pickup for Labor on preferences, and a fight for the 6th spot between the Greens, 3rd Liberal, 2nd NXT, or some other minor.
4th Liberal is just on there for if someone screws up their dual citizen renunciation.
In all the comment relating to Margaret River and where we will never know the reason because the murderer is dead, there is no mention of the father having no contact with his children for an extended period of time courtesy of the actions of the maternal family
Why not?
Why is it that children can have no contact with their father and their paternal family because of the maternal family and what impact does this have on the children and the parties, including petty retribution
Then there is the Child Support Agency
I hold a letter from CSA saying that their assessment overrides any Court Order, Court Orders which included that payments (in excess of the CSA assessment by legal advice to me in the very early going) were to be Credits against any CSA assessment
9 months later, CSA write apologising, stop their garnishee from my salary and say the monies would be refunded to me
Then that they will not refund because the other Party had no employment and could not refund the money
I would respectfully suggest that those commenting on here have absolutely no idea of the complexities and pressures – which can result in punativr response out of sheer frustration building to anger and worse
Until honesty is introduced to this debate and vested interests excluded there will be no progress – which is the history
The FACT that the Family Court of Australia is a most difficult jurisdiction for a father plus that the father is traditionally in and reliant on employment plus a raft of other factors all impact
For every action there is a reaction
When I terminated my employment, the attaching payments were all assessed for Child Support as were withdrawals from my accrued Superannuation with the resultant income seeing an assessment against me courtesy of the sheer level of income versus no income of the other party
I retain the Notice of Decision saying Final Orders addressed property division and that I was entitled to my LSL and other payments plus any withdrawals from my accrued Superannuation – so the assessment was overturned
I had at that stage terminated my employment so the assessment raised could not be garnisheed from my wages – so the matter just went away
The complexities just continued despite you wanting to get on with your life with your children and put the past in the past
Interesting was that the Senior Case Officer at CSA asked that I make contact with a father support group to convey my story to the benefit of others
My parenting obligations meant I did not so oblige – and I just wanted to move on anyway
Ha! As David Thorne rather politically incorrectly put it….
Observer
Another example of toxic masculine culture.
The mother has to be the best nurturer is assumed. I have many problems with the “mens rights” arguments but this is a valid one. True equality means the father can nurture and raise children just as easily as woman.
If a father has the money maybe he should have the custody as we accept childcare in everyday life. Then the mother gets the visiting rights.
Each individual case will be different. However that should be a factor.
The Liberal Party has no problem with women – they are not misogynists.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-15/lucy-gichuhis-political-career-facing-abrupt-end/9762808
This could be a simple case of greed, treachery or even racist bigotry, not misogyny. Still, now Lucy Gichuhi knows what a Liberal job promise is worth.
guytaur @ #1016 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 2:51 pm
My sympathy is somewhat tempered by the fact that she decided to join the side of politics that’s hostile to basically every demographic she belongs to (female, non-white, under-60, overseas born/immigrant), sometimes openly so. What outcome did she expect?
Socrates
The Liberal Party has effectively told Lucy that she should know her place.
“Gouging’ a nice euphemism for theft/fraud.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/15/energy-companies-investigated-after-allegedly-overcharging-by-400m-to-pay-tax-bills
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.470.8656&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Darn, this is an interesting doc…
guytaur says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 1:28 pm
…”The whole Airport ID thing is going to give us US style profiling of people.
Without the US protections of rights included in its Constitution”…
…
Your right in this country to go about your business and not be publicly accosted without warrant by a uniformed thug is protected.
As is your right to do so without being in possession of photographic identification.
AoE
Not a right. See Turnbull comments on 3AW I posted
AR
I agree with that.She’s everything the Liberal demographic opposes,which is ridiculous in this day and age.
On the CSA, as an accountant I’ve dealt with them for years from the employer’s point of view. They are easily the most unpleasant government department to deal with.
I’ve spent years hearing complaints about them from men who have to pay child support.
What I didn’t know until recently, courtesy of one of the mum’s at my son’s school, was that they were just as unpleasant to deal with from the mother’s (recipient’s) point of view.
The CSA clearly need a top to bottom clean out and a new client focussed culture.
Disclosure:
I don’t and never have had any personal dealings with the CSA. As an accountant I’ve had more run in’s with them than I care to remember.
1 + 1 = P1 is an idiot.
Yep, simple maths 🙂
Australian Newspaper Readership, 12 months to March 2018
PeeBee says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 1:46 pm
…”Guytaur, what do you think of compulsory castration of people with toxic masculinity?”…
…
What the actual fuck is “toxic masculinity”?
Is it contagious, and do I have it?
Are there any known treatments that don’t involve having my knackers chopped off?
Bemused,
It is time you realised that not everything written on the blog is actually written about you. Not every comment is aimed at you and if you bothered to read them objectively then you may realise that.
Not everyone is interested in your anecdotes that put you the centre of every subject, nor is everybody interested in your opinion.
For you specifically and to ensure that you are the centre of attention as you think you should be:
Zoomster,
I agree with the first part of this, it is our culture (except Bemused who has no culture at all), we own it and it is us (except Bemused who takes no responsibility what so ever for the society that he/she lives in) that has to change it (except Bemused who sees nothing wrong with women and girls being treated as lessors in society). And, by us I mean all of us (except Bemused as stated earlier), up and till recently our culture has allowed men to make all the decisions (except Bemused who takes no part in society and therefore is blameless for all the ills that befall it) and they have made many of them to the detriment to the female part of our society. Men have to change, men have to support women (except Bemused who is already a paragon of virtue (just ask him or read his many post extolling himself) and therefore exempt from supporting women) to see our culture change, men have to be at the forefront of making other men change (except Bemused who should not be included as a man), women have been trying sometimes with support of men (except Bemused as he has indicated that he does not want to be included) but not enough. It is time that all men stood up and said that they didn’t want the female part of our society to suffer anymore (except Bemused who doesn’t seem to think before he commments on any subject including this one).
As to the second part regarding the Y chromosome, I think it is again a case of men looking for reasons/excuses and not solutions. If it was a matter of the chromosome why doesn’t it effect all males, if our very nature is to be cruel, vindictive, jealous, possessive, murderous and dangerous why aren’t all men.
No, we all have choices, the man that threw his child off the bridge didn’t do it because he had a Y chromosome, he did it because he chose to. The man that stalked the streets of Liverpool beating women to death with a hammer didn’t do it because he had a Y chromosome, he chose to do that. The politicians that send armies against armies, to invade countries, to bomb cities don’t do that because of their chromosomes, they do that by choice.
Humans are murderous, cruel, vindictive, jealous, ect because they choose to be and men choose violence more often as their solution to problems (except Bemused unless he can inject an anecdote about himself then he may join in a discussion that is relevant to all of us) and by doing so they are damaging our society and it is up to men to stand up and say enough (except Bemused because he obviously feels that isn’t about him enough).
So now it has been rewritten with you mentioned many time I hope you are plaicated and while you are not the centre of attention you are a big focus as you seem to enjoy.
Now fire back, I shall enjoy your snide comments, your little short sharp and witless barbs, come on big man of PB take aim like you do to most of the women that post here, you will show me.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 3:15 pm
AoE
…”Not a right. See Turnbull comments on 3AW I posted”…
…
Turnbull is an idiot, I thought this was a fairly well established fact?
AoE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxic_masculinity
As someone mentioned earlier, Turnbull isn’t going to legislate to limit airport entry to passengers only, as it would be opposed by the airport owners who would see a huge drop in revenue from sales at shops and food places.
However he will legislate to prevent “undesirables” by allowing police and airport security to evict any person they don’t like the look of .
So the trick is to look smartly dressed and whiten your features if possible!
On the matter of Lucy Gichuhi.
The SA Liberals have had their fingers burned once by endorsing a Senator of fickle loyalty (or, less politely, an amoral opportunist). They’re probably wary of endorsing someone who already has a history of party-jumping.
The potential problem they face is if Gichuhi moves back to the crossbench in disgust, the loss of her guaranteed vote in a finely-balanced Senate for more than a year could be a disaster.
Cud Chewer not logged in @ #1033 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 3:16 pm
And what pray was this particular snark about?
@ KayJay
Thanks for posting the year on year newspaper circulations.
Was a table of circulation decreases/increases provided with wherever you got that from?
The circulation figures for the papers in WA, the Fairfax papers and the Oz all look to have dropped circulation by around the 10% mark. It would be great if you could post or provide a link for overall totals.
briefly says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 1:33 pm
…”I am not the issue here”…
…
If you wish to continue to accuse people that you have never met, of things for which you clearly have very little understanding, then yes, you absolutely are the issue.
“Observer
In all the comment relating to Margaret River and where we will never know the reason because the murderer is dead, there is no mention of the father having no contact with his children for an extended period of time courtesy of the actions of the maternal family
Why not?
Why is it that children can have no contact with their father and their paternal family because of the maternal family and what impact does this have on the children and the parties, including petty retribution.
Then there is the Child Support Agency
I hold a letter from CSA saying that their assessment overrides any Court Order, Court Orders which included that payments (in excess of the CSA assessment by legal advice to me in the very early going) were to be Credits against any CSA assessment
I would respectfully suggest that those commenting on here have absolutely no idea of the complexities and pressures – which can result in punativr response out of sheer frustration building to anger and worse
Until honesty is introduced to this debate and vested interests excluded there will be no progress – which is the history
The FACT that the Family Court of Australia is a most difficult jurisdiction for a father plus that the father is traditionally in and reliant on employment plus a raft of other factors all impact ”
I did read on the ABC where the father had been cut off from his family and thought there was a hint that he may have been successful in getting visitation/ custody rights that may have triggered the grandfathers actions.
But the CSA has, rightly in many cases, been viewed as some sort of femo nazi man hating agency that sees fathers as always being in the wrong and out to dodge their responsibilities.
I have seen the other side also where the mother uses the children as her only weapon she has to hurt the father with and games the system to do so.
The agency itself has staff like all other agencies and departments who believe that they know best how the law should be administered and applied and choose to ignore it and the facts where and when it suits them.
When you take the time and effort to prove them wrong all that happens is as with you a curt apology for blatant bias and wrong doing. There is no inquiry into who and why they are allowed to contiue doing this and the staff involved repeat the same with the next customer .
Argue with a public servant and prove them wrong and you are silently blacklisted with unreturned calls, missing files and correspondence the norm.
The money they took from you is your money that they wrongly took and should return, where they wrongly forwarded it on that is their problem and their loss.
Absence of Empathy @ #1035 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 3:21 pm
I have heard, it’s in the stars.
(next July we collide with Mars).One of the indicators denoting the above referenced chopped knackers is pronounced squinting.
The Liberal Party Scientific Investigation Branch (LPSIB) advanced testing has shown that the correlation is 104%.
However the effect discovered by an hero Chez Kay (Paul Keating) of a shiver seeking as spine is not so clear cut. More investigation is required.
Send cash to KayJay investigations (divorce a speciality) to continue the necessary work.
😎 Wonderful mowing weather – Newcastle.
🙄 Normal appearance.
KayJay
Thank you for the newspaper numbers. Interestingly they don’t indicate how many free copies are given out. Here in Canberra there seems to be thousands given away free in many of the government buildings, plus of course is the free papers given at the airports.
Throwing my 2 cents in re: the domestic violence men vs. women thing. Yes, the statistics show that men are responsible for more violence in domestic relationships that women, on the whole. To generalise and say that this is a problem with half of the population (men), though, is disingenuous; it is a problem with the psychopathic arseholes inclined to commit these acts, not ‘men’ as a whole.
Women are also sometimes perpetrators of physical violence, but they can also be masters of psychological violence, both directed at men and other women.
I work in a very female-dominated health profession (not nursing), and was the only male student to graduate in my year at uni, out of 70+ students (we started with 3 males). I was the only male employee in a team of about 12-13 (depending on staffing) for several years. Before taking the latter job, in a toxic workplace, I had really respected and enjoyed working with nearly all of the female colleagues I had encountered. I was bullied out of that job, as were several women before me. I witnessed first-hand, and was subjected to it myself, how brutal women can be to one another, psychologically, and to men. I know from this experience that it is not nearly as easy to ‘walk away’ from an abusive relationship/situation as it seems as an outsider, and can only imagine what it must be like to be in a domestic relationship with someone who is physically and/or psychologically violent.
There is a problem with how both sexes are socialised; not just boys/men. I don’t think this violence, whether physical or psychological, is the exclusive domain of one particular gender – it’s just carried out, on average, in a different way. Yes, the more-violent way grabs the headlines and is more lethal, but the scars of psychological violence can be just as damaging.
HaveAchat @ #1036 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 3:23 pm
Oh what a strange person you must be!
I agree with your first sentence, but from there on you just make shit up.
I certainly don’t see myself at the centre of every subject nor do I relate anecdotes to anywhere near the extent of others on PB. Are you confusing me with someone else?
And as for the repeated jibes against me under the guise of a reply to zoomster, you are just downright mendacious and offensive.
From whence springs your obsession with me?
I adore the women in my life and am fortunate to have three delightful granddaughters who I just love to spend time with and to take on outings.
Are you part of the misandrist clique on PB?
grimace @ #1041 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 3:29 pm
The difference is show 2017 to 2018.
A thousand and 42 pardons (I keep count).
http://www.roymorgan.com/industries/media/readership/newspaper-readership
😂 Tears of joy.
I get carried away with joy on noting the decline in sales.
Absence of Empathy says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 3:31 pm
I made some remarks about misogyny and violence, and the denial of both. They were not made with you in mind. I did not accuse you of anything, being blithely unaware of whether you might or might not see anything posted by me or anyone else.
You construed my remarks – which were about the denial of misogyny – as being about whether or not you disagreed with me. This was an elision…. a futile one. I do not care whether you agree with me or not. I do not conclude anything much from it at all. Why would I?