Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46

Good news for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, but Labor keeps its nose in front in the post-budget Newspoll, and lands well clear in Ipsos.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.

By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.

Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.

Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.

Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.

The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46”

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  1. Bill Shorten’s leadership of the Labor Party has entered its most testing phase. The forthcoming “super Saturday” of by-elections in four Labor-held seats looms as a sword of Damocles. If Labor loses any of these seats, it could trigger a leadership crisis.(Troy Bramston)

    How desperate is Newscorp becoming writing trash like this.I don’t think they’re trying to convince the public anymore,only themselves. How these so called journos claim any credibility is beyond me.

  3. guytaur

    As I said, very far back at the start of the discussion, the culture which creates violent men is our culture – we all own it.

    …however, I’ve been reflecting on that, given the info on male homicides above. For 96% of homicides across all cultures on earth to be perpetrated by men suggests that it goes deeper than culture, and really is linked to having a Y chromosome.

    Whereas that may be an important issue to recognise, there is no doubt that humans have been very, very good at using culture to override our basic instincts.

    (As an aside, given our much earlier discussion here about nomadism — one of the changes modern nomads who have become settled identify is, apparently, a rise in domestic violence, which they themselves link to increased privacy).

  5. grimace

    Yes, we recently took a flight to Tasmania. My husband, who hasn’t flown much, was astonished that we were allowed to board a plane without ever having to verify who we were.

  6. C@tmomma @ #923 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 10:40 am

    Rowan
    ‏@FightingTories
    ABC used taxpayer funds in promoting and building the profiles of Georgina Downer and Jacinta Price prior to announcing their candidacy to run for the liberal party #thedrum #qanda #abcnews24

    That’s one way of looking at it. My interpretation is that it alerted voters to what a vacuous goose Downer is.

  7. Just to be clear. The Airport ID check thing is not just for passengers

    From 3AW
    NOW | Mr Turnbull says police will be given power to approach anyone in airports + ask for ID, without cause.

    Neil: “That’s a big step.”

    PM: “It is.”

    Neil: “Why do we need it?”

    PM: “Dangerous times, Neil.”

    #auspol

  8. Absence of Empathy,
    Ah yes.
    Disagree with you and I am sexist.
    Disagree with you and I am an anti-semite.
    Disagree with you and I am a raving Trotskyist.

    You are guilty of all of the prejudices you so casually fling at others.

    Okay, so tell us what you have agreed with that others have posted?

  9. That’s one way of looking at it. My interpretation is that it alerted voters to what a vacuous goose Downer is.

    You make a good point there, DanG. 🙂

  10. Voice Endeavour
    please, tell me how my statements such as “All domestic violence is bad. All of it must be condemned.” is proof that I am “erasing the experiences of heterosexual women”.

    Because, “All domestic violence is bad. All of it must be condemned”, is a self-serving, virtue-signalling, empty platitude, and it divorces DV from the intimately-related wider societal problem of sexual discrimination against women:

    All violence is wrong, regardless of the sex of the victim or perpetrator. But there are distinct gendered patterns in the perpetration and impact of violence.

    For example, both women and men are more likely to experience violence at the hands of men, with around 95% of all victims of violence in Australia reporting a male perpetrator.20

    While men are more likely to experience violence by other men in public places, women are more likely to experience violence from men they know, often in the home.21

    The overwhelming majority of acts of domestic violence and sexual assault are perpetrated by men against women, and this violence is likely to have more severe impacts on female than male victims.22

    None of this is to say that the men and LGBT people who experience DV should not be recognised or provided with the utmost assistance, but I question the motives of people who seek to use those groups to deny the inherent misogyny that drives DV.

    https://www.ourwatch.org.au/understanding-violence/facts-and-figures

  13. Dan G

    ‘My interpretation is that it alerted voters to what a vacuous goose Downer is.’

    Just like Mirabella losing her seat coincided with her increased media presence..

  14. Voice Endeavour @ #942 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 1:05 pm

    @ Jimmy D – please, tell me how my statements such as “All domestic violence is bad. All of it must be condemned.” is proof that I am “erasing the experiences of heterosexual women”.

    Jimmy used to write some reasonable stuff, but today he just jumped the shark.
    Naturally the peanut gallery all cheered him.

  15. zoomster @ #955 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 11:15 am

    grimace

    Yes, we recently took a flight to Tasmania. My husband, who hasn’t flown much, was astonished that we were allowed to board a plane without ever having to verify who we were.

    I’ve worked at a number of airports, seaports and major hazard facilities (power plans, various types of refineries and processing plants) and security at all of these facilities is just pantomime.

    You’ll only experience a problem with security if you present yourself to the security desk and declare your intentions.

  16. The whole Airport ID thing is going to give us US style profiling of people.

    Without the US protections of rights included in its Constitution.

  17. WTF ? Can someone explain why the percentages seem in the opposite order to what you would expect. From Essential Report.

    Q: “One of the major budget announcements was changes to income tax. From 1 July most people earning under $90,000 will receive a $10 per week tax cut. Which best describes what this will mean for you and your family”

    “It will make a difference to my household”
    <$600 pw 16%
    $600-1000 19%
    $1000-1500 pw 22%
    $1500-2000 pw 23%
    >$2000 pw 29%

  18. Absence of Empathy says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 12:58 pm

    I am not the issue here. Nor do I care whether you disagree with me or not.

  19. @JimmyD – I have not made a single statement identifying, or denying, the cause(s) of any type of domestic violence.

    So your claim that I am “deny[ing] the inherent misogyny that drives [the vast majority of] DV” is entirely baseless.

    All I am saying, is that our objective needs to be to stop all domestic violence, not most of it.

    Focusing awareness entirely on the majority portion of this and sweeping the minority into a “we don’t care” category is horrible, and unhelpful.

  21. John Cleese tweets
    A journalist who has a story about Rebekah Brook’s illegalities has been told that if the story sees the light of day, he will never work in the British Press again
    Just another aspect of the ‘Freedom of the Press to do what the fuck it likes, no matter how illegal it may be’

  25. I highly recommend this article for anyone who want a more factual basis to family murder-suicides.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/15/the-margaret-river-shooting-shows-that-we-must-stay-vigilant-about-gun-access?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=274844&subid=7122617&CMP=ema_632

    It includes information such as:

    —
    Overall, shooting was the most common method of killing one’s family, with stabbing second, and gassing third. Yet only 12 of the 47 total gun-related events occurred after 1996. A closer look at the balance of events pre- and post-1996 revealed that while guns were used by more than half (56.7%) of all perpetrators prior to 1996, they were used by only 16% of perpetrators thereafter. From 1996 onwards, stabbing overtook shooting as the most common method of killing and was used by more than one-third (35.8%) of perpetrators. When you consider that Australia’s population roughly trebled over that period, from eight million in 1950 to almost 25 million in 2017, the shift in methods becomes all the more remarkable.
    —

  26. Strange how Newspoll is the best poll for Turnbull.Are they fiddling Newspoll trying to convince themselves the Libs are back in the game?

  27. poroti @ #967 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 1:32 pm

    WTF ? Can someone explain why the percentages seem in the opposite order to what you would expect. From Essential Report.

    Q: “One of the major budget announcements was changes to income tax. From 1 July most people earning under $90,000 will receive a $10 per week tax cut. Which best describes what this will mean for you and your family”

    “It will make a difference to my household”
    <$600 pw 16%
    $600-1000 19%
    $1000-1500 pw 22%
    $1500-2000 pw 23%
    >$2000 pw 29%

    The greater the income, the higher likelihood of the person being a rusted on Lib and unquestioning supporter of its policies. Class warfare.

  29. Strange how Newspoll is the best poll for Turnbull.Are they fiddling Newspoll trying to convince themselves the Libs are back in the game?

    Yes! And Alexander Downer pulled strings in the UK so several MPs couldnt relinguish their UK citizenship in time – to the benefit of his party and (so he thinks) of one of his children!

    And Cameron Bancroft getting a gig with a WA club is payback for his masterminding the incident that saw two NSWelshmen banished from the game for a year AND a West Australian becoming coach.

    Stay tuned for the feature length docudrama ‘Warner, Prick or Patsy?”

  31. PeeBee

    Toxic barbaric practice. Of course you sound ridiculous trying to use an extreme violent act to justify defending a culture of violence.

  34. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 1:10 pm

    …”Is that a Unicorn I spy”…

    …
    They are all real things that have actually occurred, so no…

  35. zoomster @ #953 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 1:13 pm

    guytaur

    As I said, very far back at the start of the discussion, the culture which creates violent men is our culture – we all own it.

    …however, I’ve been reflecting on that, given the info on male homicides above. For 96% of homicides across all cultures on earth to be perpetrated by men suggests that it goes deeper than culture, and really is linked to having a Y chromosome.

    Whereas that may be an important issue to recognise, there is no doubt that humans have been very, very good at using culture to override our basic instincts.

    (As an aside, given our much earlier discussion here about nomadism — one of the changes modern nomads who have become settled identify is, apparently, a rise in domestic violence, which they themselves link to increased privacy).

    Zoomster,
    I agree with the first part of this, it is our culture, we own it and it is us that has to change it. And, by us I mean all of us, up and till recently our culture has allowed men to make all the decisions and they have made many of them to the detriment to the female part of our society. Men have to change, men have to support women to see our culture change, men have to be at the forefront of making other men change, women have been trying sometimes with support of men but not enough. It is time that all men stood up and said that they didn’t want the female part of our society to suffer anymore.

    As to the second part regarding the Y chromosome, I think it is again a case of men looking for reasons/excuses and not solutions. If it was a matter of the chromosome why doesn’t it effect all males, if our very nature is to be cruel, vindictive, jealous, possessive, murderous and dangerous why aren’t all men.

    No, we all have choices, the man that threw his child off the bridge didn’t do it because he had a Y chromosome, he did it because he chose to. The man that stalked the streets of Liverpool beating women to death with a hammer didn’t do it because he had a Y chromosome, he chose to do that. The politicians that send armies against armies, to invade countries, to bomb cities don’t do that because of their chromosomes, they do that by choice.

    Humans are murderous, cruel, vindictive, jealous, ect because they choose to be and men choose violence more often as their solution to problems and by doing so they are damaging our society and it is up to men to stand up and say enough.

  36. lizzie @ #855 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 8:39 am

    Turnbull govt want to be a law unto itself. Fail with costs 😆

    Noely‏ @YaThinkN · 7m7 minutes ago

    “The Supreme Court has ruled that not only are the Palaszczuk Government’s political donation thresholds valid, but that the LNP must pay for all costs incurred by the Electoral Commission of Queensland in establishing this fact,’’ State A-G Yvette D’Ath.

    HaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahahahahhahahahhahahahhaha!!!

    That will dig into election funds, I wonder how deep Malcolm’s pockets will need to be next election? 🙂

  37. HaveAchat @ #985 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 1:59 pm

    zoomster @ #953 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 1:13 pm

    guytaur

    As I said, very far back at the start of the discussion, the culture which creates violent men is our culture – we all own it.

    …however, I’ve been reflecting on that, given the info on male homicides above. For 96% of homicides across all cultures on earth to be perpetrated by men suggests that it goes deeper than culture, and really is linked to having a Y chromosome.

    Whereas that may be an important issue to recognise, there is no doubt that humans have been very, very good at using culture to override our basic instincts.

    (As an aside, given our much earlier discussion here about nomadism — one of the changes modern nomads who have become settled identify is, apparently, a rise in domestic violence, which they themselves link to increased privacy).

    Zoomster,
    I agree with the first part of this, it is our culture, we own it and it is us that has to change it. And, by us I mean all of us, up and till recently our culture has allowed men to make all the decisions and they have made many of them to the detriment to the female part of our society. Men have to change, men have to support women to see our culture change, men have to be at the forefront of making other men change, women have been trying sometimes with support of men but not enough. It is time that all men stood up and said that they didn’t want the female part of our society to suffer anymore.

    As to the second part regarding the Y chromosome, I think it is again a case of men looking for reasons/excuses and not solutions. If it was a matter of the chromosome why doesn’t it effect all males, if our very nature is to be cruel, vindictive, jealous, possessive, murderous and dangerous why aren’t all men.

    No, we all have choices, the man that threw his child off the bridge didn’t do it because he had a Y chromosome, he did it because he chose to. The man that stalked the streets of Liverpool beating women to death with a hammer didn’t do it because he had a Y chromosome, he chose to do that. The politicians that send armies against armies, to invade countries, to bomb cities don’t do that because of their chromosomes, they do that by choice.

    Humans are murderous, cruel, vindictive, jealous, ect because they choose to be and men choose violence more often as their solution to problems and by doing so they are damaging our society and it is up to men to stand up and say enough.

    Speak for yourself sunshine, not men generally.

  38. HaveAChat

    Stop blaming men only. Margaret Thatcher chose to use war too.

    Its the culture. Toxic Masculinity. Woman buy into that too.

    Our society suffers the consequences.

    We all need to call out violence. Full Stop. Men just have no excuse not to.

    Women have had fear as a reasonable excuse

  41. Essential:

    Primary votes: Liberal 34 (-1), Nationals 4 (+1), Labor 36 (-1), Greens 10 (0), Hanson 7 (+1), Xen 2 (0), Others 6 (0).

    2PP: 52-48 Labor.

  42. Haveachat

    Thanks, great post, and I’m not disagreeing with you – I was really shocked by that 96% worldwide figure for homicides, and am trying to work out where it fits in.

    There’s an excellent book, btw, called “Adam’s Curse” by Bryan Sykes, which is basically a discussion of the role of the Y chromosome. It’s some years since I read it.

  43. Social violence is inseparable from the order in which we live. So racially-denoted violence is a manifestation of a racist culture; and violence within families – gendered violence, sexual and sexualised violence – are extensions of the violence that is implicit in patriarchy.

    These things are not merely “anomalous” or “sporadic” or “idiosyncratic”. That is, as well as being personally executed and intimately felt, violence has a systemic origin and has systemic consequences. Because the order is also implicitly political – it involves the holding, transmission and use of power – it is also reasonable to say that gendered and sexualised violence are also political violence. For mine, they can be read as forms of patho-terrorism carried out within the culture on its own constituents; as harm enacted by a militia for political reasons.

    Obviously, a part of the systemic response to violence is to deny its existence, nature and consequences, in various ways. The deniers also deny this. Of course. They must. To relinquish denial may be to adopt critique. This is personally and politically subversive and therefore in its way also threatening to received norms and modes of behaviour and social standing.

  45. C@tmomma

    It’s all very simple.Just ask the Israeli education minister.

    Naftali Bennett, Israel’s hardline education minister, had already put what the foreign ministry called the “murderous rioters” on notice. By taking part in the demonstrations, Palestinians were self-identifying as terrorists, he said. If they were shot dead, Bennett implied, it was their own fault.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/14/death-division-and-denial-as-us-embassy-opens-in-jerusalem

  46. Domestic violence is one problem, regardless of your attempts to divide it into 4 problems. We should focus on fixing the problem of domestic violence, not telling males and lesbians experiencing domestic violence to shut up while we focus on the bigger problem.

    I actually agree with that. To do otherwise would be a bit like saying we should focus only on preventing male suicides just because the female victims make up only about 30% of the problem. If we truly want to have a society based on equality we must treat the concerns and issues of all its members equally and if that means being able to fart and chew gum at the same time, so be it.

  47. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 1:10 pm

    AoE

    …”Yes the comment about men and lesbians was made by someone else. Sorry for including that part in my post to you”…

    …
    That is perfectly fine, no need to apologise.

  48. Darn

    Yes. The cause of Domestic Violence are individual. However the toxic masculine culture that makes men more prone to be the perpetrators is the cause that must be addressed.

    The whole men must take responsibility is a cop out as if Woman are not taking responsibility by speaking out.

    Its the culture that woman are calling out and rightly so.
    We have to change the culture.
    Thats saying its wrong to treat any human as less than equal and without respect.

    Singling men out as different is to ignore the cause and thus perpetuate the problem.

    Men need to be liberated from the culture as much as woman do

  49. …and part of the point is that tackling whatever it is that makes men violent helps solve several additional problems, apart from domestic violence. It would lessen the incidence of men killing men, make the streets safer, help empty the jails, etc etc.

    The problem is wider than domestic violence.

  50. Newscorp will once again be pissed off that another Turnbull reset(Budget)hasnt produced any result for their man,and they’re showing it with the ridiculous stories about Shorten and Labor.

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