YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Some encouraging poll news for the government from Queensland, as the Western Australian Liberals opt to sit out the Perth and Fremantle by-elections.

The Courier-Mail has a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention (presumably state results from the same poll will follow tomorrow or the next day), and it records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, which compares with a 54.1-45.9 result at the 2016 election. This is unchanged from the last such poll in early February, although that result was stronger for the Coalition than other polling from Queensland. The primary votes in the latest poll are Coalition 40% (41% in the February poll, 43.2% at the election), Labor 33% (32% and 30.9%), Greens 10% (10% and 8.8%) and One Nation 10% (9% and 5.5% from ten seats contested). Other findings from the poll:

Other questions related to the budget: 39% said the budget will make them better off, compared with 32% for worse off; 26% think Labor would have delivered a better budget, with 51% for the negative; 39% said it would be good for Queensland, and 28% bad; 21% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, 17% less likely and 57% no influence; 46% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition had “the best long-term plan for Australia’s future” compared with 31% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and Scott Morrison led Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer 38% to 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 900.

It’s a bit out of date now, but let the record note that the latest BludgerTrack update had Labor up two seats in Victoria and down one in Western Australia following some quirky state breakdown results, but recorded next to no change on national voting intention. This was all based on this week’s Essential Research poll, which also included a new set of leadership numbers. There will presumably be a lot more post-budget polling to come over the next few days.

Also noted:

• The state council of the Liberal Party has announced it will not be fielding candidates in the by-elections for Fremantle (not surprising) and Perth (very surprising). The party’s Twitter account says is “will not be distracted by Bill Shorten’s duplicity and dishonesty”, and will instead devote its energies to the state by-election in Darling Range. Jessica Strutt of the ABC reports the candidate is likely to be Rob Coales, Serpentine-Jarrahdale councillor and candidate for Thornlie at the state election. If so they will be overlooking Alyssa Hayden, who unexpectedly lost her upper house seat to One Nation last year, and again be exhibiting their lack of concern for anything resembling gender parity.

• A poll of 1277 respondents in Longman, conducted on Thursday night by ReachTEL for The Australia Institute, gives a remarkably strong result for the Coalition, who lead 53-47 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 36.7% (39.0% at the election) and Labor 32.5% (35.4%).

• Jane Prentice has lost Liberal National Party preselection for her Brisbane seat of Ryan to Brisbane councillor Julian Simmonds, and the Liberal state council meeting in Western Australia appears set to take over the preselection process in Moore to protect Ian Goodenough from four challengers (Andres Timmermanis, John Raftis, Paul Miles and Robert Marie).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

527 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 6 of 11
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  1. Incidentally, the use of the term ‘vermin control’ in the context of gun laws is a bit of semantic clue of the extent to which Australian gunnies are taking their cues and their materials and their support from the NRA.

    ‘Vermin control’ is straight out of the NRA playbook.

    The most common Australian usage for small creatures is ‘pest control’. Not vermin control.

    For large creatures the current usage is ‘ferals’.

    Make no mistake. There are people in Australia who want to import US gun culture into Australia.

  2. PeeBee @ #248 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 11:28 am

    Jenauthor,

    I can think of three.

    1. Ghan extension – White elephant – passenger train runs once a fortnight.
    2. $750m for CCS. I’ve seen the structures attached to the electricity plants in the Latrobe Valley – waste of money.
    3. Broadband cabling. – which saw some suburbs get two cables, some one and some none. Stranded assets left everywhere (the wire in the power poles to hock the optus’ cable is still there, but Optus abandoned the area when Telstra beat them to it going underground). $4b poorly spent.

    The Ghan runs weekly in both directions and is pretty popular. It is really more a holiday package now.
    See https://www.greatsouthernrail.com.au/fares-and-timetables/timetables/ghan-timetables-2018-2019

  3. If you want to get an insight into the psychology of ‘vermin control’ using guns, google ‘vermin control’.

    There are plenty of utubes of small animals being shot to death: a sort of death porn that sits well within the context of the US/NRA gun death culture.

    It sits in the same death porn gun culture space that results in dead baboons being dressed up with sunglasses and killers proudly posing next to animals that they have shot to death.

    Make no mistake. There is a concerted effort to transplant this to Australia. Just have a look at the Queensland PHON gun policy.

  4. #metoo hits the churches.

    In 2000, Mr. Patterson, a major figure in the Southern Baptist world, recounted the story of a woman who had been abused by her husband and had come to him for counsel. He told her to pray quietly beside the bed at night, counting on God to intervene. Mr. Patterson warned her to “get ready” because “he may get a little more violent, you know, when he discovers this.” When the woman came to him with two black eyes, according to Mr. Patterson, she said, “I hope you’re happy.” Mr. Patterson’s response: “Yes, ma’am, I am. I’m sorry about that, but I’m very happy,” because the husband had shown up in church that morning and asked for forgiveness. These comments, shockingly callous and ill-advised, are not isolated.

    In an illustration he used in a sermon a few years ago, Mr. Patterson took delight in describing an episode in which a girl no more than 16 years old — “let me just say, she was nice,” according to Mr. Patterson — walked by a teenage boy who leered at her, saying, “Man, is she built.” The mother scolded her son, only to have Mr. Patterson intervene. “Ma’am,” he said, “leave him alone. He is just being biblical. That’s exactly what the Bible says,” evoking laughter and applause from the audience. And in 1997, Mr. Patterson made what he considered to be an oh-so-clever comment about women: “I think everybody should own at least one.” (After nearly two weeks of insisting he had nothing to apologize for, and with pressure intensifying on him from within the Southern Baptist world, Mr. Patterson finally issued a blanket apology on Thursday.)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/12/opinion/sunday/the-great-metoo-awakening.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  5. lizzie @ #247 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 11:26 am

    “What he’s talking about last time was a relationship with private-sector providers, not all of whom were entirely reputable with all due respect with those who are reputable,” Bowen told Sky News on Sunday. “Guess what? Tafe is reputable.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/13/labor-cries-foul-after-birmingham-compares-tafe-changes-to-subsidised-basket-weaving

    You must be very busy reading with all the links you post.
    Just wanted to say thanks. It is a great supplement to what BK comes up with. 😀

  6. PeeBee @ #248 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 11:28 am

    Jenauthor,

    I can think of three.

    1. Ghan extension – White elephant – passenger train runs once a fortnight.
    2. $750m for CCS. I’ve seen the structures attached to the electricity plants in the Latrobe Valley – waste of money.
    3. Broadband cabling. – which saw some suburbs get two cables, some one and some none. Stranded assets left everywhere (the wire in the power poles to hock the optus’ cable is still there, but Optus abandoned the area when Telstra beat them to it going underground). $4b poorly spent.

    I couldn’t think of anything, so well done!
    But wrt 2, Labor govts have also got sucked into that and wrt 3, didn’t that fiasco get started under Hawke with Michael Lee as Communications Minister?

  7. On the Sunday after the much anticipated Federal budget, how much of the treasurers time was spent criticizing the oppositions tax policy. Not even their alternative budget, but their tax policy.
    This is nominally one year before the next federal election

  8. Boerwar @ #253 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 11:46 am

    If you want to get an insight into the psychology of ‘vermin control’ using guns, google ‘vermin control’.

    There are plenty of utubes of small animals being shot to death: a sort of death porn that sits well within the context of the US/NRA gun death culture.

    It sits in the same death porn gun culture space that results in dead baboons being dressed up with sunglasses and killers proudly posing next to animals that they have shot to death.

    Make no mistake. There is a concerted effort to transplant this to Australia. Just have a look at the Queensland PHON gun policy.

    I see the Bore has found a new hobby horse.

  9. Jenauthor, that link is only valid for April and March. I had a quick check but couldn’t find it, but during the off season it runs fortnight.y between AS and Darwin.

    Happy to be corrected, but my point that it is a white elephant still stands.

  11. When questioned this morning, Turnbull has announced that Prentice is being sacked from her seat (and hence from the ministry) because the Liberals demote women on merit.

    He agreed that O’Dwyer and Bishop should be thinking about getting rid of their shoes and finding a job in some husband’s kitchen.

    His view was that all the Liberal men were safe.

  12. PeeBee @ #259 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 12:05 pm

    Jenauthor, that link is only valid for April and March. I had a quick check but couldn’t find it, but during the off season it runs fortnight.y between AS and Darwin.

    Happy to be corrected, but my point that it is a white elephant still stands.

    The Link I posted shows trips weekly in both directions all year. The dates are a little funny and need careful reading.
    https://www.greatsouthernrail.com.au/fares-and-timetables/timetables/ghan-timetables-2018-2019

    The trips take a some time as excursions are run away from the train at several points. Katherine and Alice Springs being two of them. It becomes almost like a packaged holiday. We were very pleased to do an excursion to Katherine Gorge – a place I had never imagined we would see.

  13. Boerwar @ #261 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 12:12 pm

    When questioned this morning, Turnbull has announced that Prentice is being sacked from her seat (and hence from the ministry) because the Liberals demote women on merit.

    He agreed that O’Dwyer and Bishop should be thinking about getting rid of their shoes and finding a job in some husband’s kitchen.

    His view was that all the Liberal men were safe.

    Morrison’s comments this morning were a bit rich when he tried to argue that pre-selections were a contested aspect of the Liberal party. Morrison was pre-selected for his seat when a local vote (where he only obtained single figures) was overturned so he could be installed.

  14. bemused @ #258 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 12:03 pm

    Boerwar @ #253 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 11:46 am

    If you want to get an insight into the psychology of ‘vermin control’ using guns, google ‘vermin control’.

    There are plenty of utubes of small animals being shot to death: a sort of death porn that sits well within the context of the US/NRA gun death culture.

    It sits in the same death porn gun culture space that results in dead baboons being dressed up with sunglasses and killers proudly posing next to animals that they have shot to death.

    Make no mistake. There is a concerted effort to transplant this to Australia. Just have a look at the Queensland PHON gun policy.

    I see the Bore has found a new hobby horse.

    I see bumused is being an arse again!

  15. jenauthor @ #237 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:47 am

    MAybe some of the better memories here can enlighten me … what major infrastructure did the Costello treasurership build during 2000-2007?

    I can’t recall any.

    From out of the far reaches of my memory, didn’t Howard and Costello contribute funds, or tax breaks, to the Greater Sunrise project and Gorgon deep sea platform?

  17. I didn’t catch it all, but saw Shorten announcing another good policy and one that will not cost much but will save consumers a lot.

    It is to require car companies to share information with independent car repair and servicing organisations and not just their dealerships which seem to charge unduly high prices for their work. A lot of small businesses should be cheering that one, as well as car owners.

    Even if you take your car to a dealership, there will be downward pressure on what they charge.

  18. Morrison’s comments this morning were a bit rich when he tried to argue that pre-selections were a contested aspect of the Liberal party. Morrison was pre-selected for his seat when a local vote (where he only obtained single figures) was overturned so he could be installed.

    Yes indeed. I’d completely forgotten that. No wonder Morrison stumbled around the Prentice questions.

  21. The AtlanticVerified account@TheAtlantic
    24m24 minutes ago
    Republicans elected a president who promised to take on D.C.—instead, Trump has presided over an extraordinary auction of access and influence, argues @conor64:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/05/trumps-washington/560105/?utm_source=atltw

    If the penny hasn’t dropped by now for Trump voters that he couldn’t give a stuff about their interests, it likely never will. Just like evangelicals who happily look away despite the 20+ women with complaints about sexual assault against him, or his racist, misogynistic, very un-christian like comments.

  22. GG

    Morrison was pre-selected for his seat when a local vote (where he only obtained single figures) was overturned so he could be installed.

    I have never really believed in Morrison being anything but a political animal ever since. Someone with that mindset would never produce a fair Budget, IMO.

  23. lizzie @ #272 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 12:37 pm

    GG

    Morrison was pre-selected for his seat when a local vote (where he only obtained single figures) was overturned so he could be installed.

    I have never really believed in Morrison being anything but a political animal ever since. Someone with that mindset would never produce a fair Budget, IMO.

    Morrison is one of those snake oil salesmen type that talk over and through you to get you to purchase their Elixir of Future prosperity. It’s basically verbal thuggery. They used to tar and feather his type in the good old days. Sometimes, the old remedies are the best!

  24. Curse renewables pushing up electricity prices
    .
    “Tesla’s giant battery reduces cost of power outages by 90 per cent in South Australia
    Wind-powered system responds much faster than traditional grid backups

    South Australia is now reportedly the only state that has experienced a decline in FCAS costs in recent months.

    Some estimates suggest the cost savings to consumers as a result of this decline have been up to A$35m (£19.5m) in the first four months of the Tesla battery’s operation.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/tesla-giant-battery-south-australia-reduce-cost-power-outage-backup-system-fcas-a8348431.html

  27. ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #226 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:26 am

    Bemused – the present law means that the govt of the day can get the renunciation of its candidates rushed through by putting the weights on foreign govts (e.g. Barnyard, Nash) and everybody else can stand in the corner.

    This doesn’t seem to be true.

    The expediting of an application is available to all if you provide a reason.

    Labor was either unaware or with their advice did not consider this necessary. 🙂

  28. On Morrison’s ‘politics is a contestible process’ remarks this morning.

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    1h1 hour ago
    If I’d been saved from a rank and file preselection in which I only got single digit support I don’t think I’d been saying that just quietly….

  35. C@t:

    I know the WH is refusing to apologise to McCain and his family, but has the staffer herself apologised?

    It wouldn’t surprise me if she hasn’t, but I’d think it would be the least the WH could insist upon.

  36. Barney in Go Dau @ #277 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 1:01 pm

    ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #226 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:26 am

    Bemused – the present law means that the govt of the day can get the renunciation of its candidates rushed through by putting the weights on foreign govts (e.g. Barnyard, Nash) and everybody else can stand in the corner.

    This doesn’t seem to be true.

    The expediting of an application is available to all if you provide a reason.

    Labor was either unaware or with their advice did not consider this necessary. 🙂

    I suppose anyone, or a Party they belong to is free to try to expedite, but that lacks the clout of having full Government resources behind it.

    That said, I have not read of any efforts made by those caught out bureaucratic inertia to chase things up.

  37. bemused @ #286 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:29 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #277 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 1:01 pm

    ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #226 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:26 am

    Bemused – the present law means that the govt of the day can get the renunciation of its candidates rushed through by putting the weights on foreign govts (e.g. Barnyard, Nash) and everybody else can stand in the corner.

    This doesn’t seem to be true.

    The expediting of an application is available to all if you provide a reason.

    Labor was either unaware or with their advice did not consider this necessary. 🙂

    I suppose anyone, or a Party they belong to is free to try to expedite, but that lacks the clout of having full Government resources behind it.

    That said, I have not read of any efforts made by those caught out bureaucratic inertia to chase things up.

    With the advice they were working to they would not consider there was any need to follow up once that knew it had been received and payment taken.

  38. C@tmomma @ #95 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 8:19 pm

    Sprocket,
    I keep wondering how Stormy Daniels, a Texan, got Michael Avenatti, a Californian, as her lawyer? He’s way above her ability to pay for his services.

    Like the mainstream movie business, the adult movie business is also mainly based in California. A lot of graduates from the various film schools make their way into the adult business when they can’t find work in mainstream movies.

  39. Confessions @ #285 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 1:28 pm

    C@t:

    I know the WH is refusing to apologise to McCain and his family, but has the staffer herself apologised?

    It wouldn’t surprise me if she hasn’t, but I’d think it would be the least the WH could insist upon.

    As I understand it, the staffer rang Meghan McCain to apologise but there was no official WH apology. Plus, she hasn’t been sacked, which says a lot as well.

  40. Confessions says: Sunday, May 13, 2018 at 1:28 pm

    C@t:

    I know the WH is refusing to apologise to McCain and his family, but has the staffer herself apologised?

    It wouldn’t surprise me if she hasn’t, but I’d think it would be the least the WH could insist upon.

    ************************************************************************

    White House staff rallying behind woman who joked about ‘dying’ McCain — Twitter sees bitter irony

    The White House communications staff is rallying behind Kelly Sadler, the embattled communications staffer who made a joke about how John McCain’s opinions on torture don’t matter because “he’s dying anyway.”

    Not only has Sadler’s boss, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, refused to apologize for the insensitive joke and scolded her staff about leaks, a second staffer has reportedly said that she wants to go on the record supporting her colleague and the joke.

    The fact that the White House’s communications shop refuses accountability and will not apologize for the incident after so many Washington insiders tripped over themselves running to rally around Huckabee Sanders after her eye makeup was lightly mocked by a comedian during a roast has registered as a bitter irony to some on Twitter.

    MORE : https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/white-house-staff-rallying-behind-woman-joked-dying-mccain-twitter-sees-bitter-irony/

  41. This is shocking. They should support science and truth.

    Tim Beshara ‏ @Tim_Beshara · 36m36 minutes ago

    The @austmus is selling a climate change denial book published by the IPA. It’s among all the real climate books. The @austmus must explain themselves.

  42. C@t:

    I bet she only apologised to Meghan McCain because she directly expressed her disgust at what the woman had said.

  46. Joe2
    @eatatjoe2
    It’s official, #Budget2018 bombed.
    “A mini budget early next year before the federal election is a live option being considered by the Turnbull government” it is reported by Daily Telegraph, where Mal’s mob feed Rupert. #auspol

    This mob are just abusing the political process! A Mini Budget has traditionally been used when an unexpected economic catastrophe occurs and needs prompt action by the government, NOT so as to enable a useless bunch of clowns to shovel more bribes at the electorate before the election because they are drowning in rivers of revenue!

  49. The fact that the White House’s communications shop refuses accountability and will not apologize for the incident after so many Washington insiders tripped over themselves running to rally around Huckabee Sanders after her eye makeup was lightly mocked by a comedian during a roast has registered as a bitter irony to some on Twitter.

    You could call them snowflakes! 😀

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