The Courier-Mail has a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention (presumably state results from the same poll will follow tomorrow or the next day), and it records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, which compares with a 54.1-45.9 result at the 2016 election. This is unchanged from the last such poll in early February, although that result was stronger for the Coalition than other polling from Queensland. The primary votes in the latest poll are Coalition 40% (41% in the February poll, 43.2% at the election), Labor 33% (32% and 30.9%), Greens 10% (10% and 8.8%) and One Nation 10% (9% and 5.5% from ten seats contested). Other findings from the poll:
Other questions related to the budget: 39% said the budget will make them better off, compared with 32% for worse off; 26% think Labor would have delivered a better budget, with 51% for the negative; 39% said it would be good for Queensland, and 28% bad; 21% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, 17% less likely and 57% no influence; 46% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition had “the best long-term plan for Australia’s future” compared with 31% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and Scott Morrison led Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer 38% to 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 900.
It’s a bit out of date now, but let the record note that the latest BludgerTrack update had Labor up two seats in Victoria and down one in Western Australia following some quirky state breakdown results, but recorded next to no change on national voting intention. This was all based on this week’s Essential Research poll, which also included a new set of leadership numbers. There will presumably be a lot more post-budget polling to come over the next few days.
Also noted:
• The state council of the Liberal Party has announced it will not be fielding candidates in the by-elections for Fremantle (not surprising) and Perth (very surprising). The party’s Twitter account says is “will not be distracted by Bill Shorten’s duplicity and dishonesty”, and will instead devote its energies to the state by-election in Darling Range. Jessica Strutt of the ABC reports the candidate is likely to be Rob Coales, Serpentine-Jarrahdale councillor and candidate for Thornlie at the state election. If so they will be overlooking Alyssa Hayden, who unexpectedly lost her upper house seat to One Nation last year, and again be exhibiting their lack of concern for anything resembling gender parity.
• A poll of 1277 respondents in Longman, conducted on Thursday night by ReachTEL for The Australia Institute, gives a remarkably strong result for the Coalition, who lead 53-47 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 36.7% (39.0% at the election) and Labor 32.5% (35.4%).
• Jane Prentice has lost Liberal National Party preselection for her Brisbane seat of Ryan to Brisbane councillor Julian Simmonds, and the Liberal state council meeting in Western Australia appears set to take over the preselection process in Moore to protect Ian Goodenough from four challengers (Andres Timmermanis, John Raftis, Paul Miles and Robert Marie).
Boerwar @ #15610 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 8:00 am
There is a degree of blatant hypocrisy about the bleatings of the NRA-lead Gun Fetishist Gang which is beyond gobsmacking – and it is as pernicious and pathetic as the fearful faith of the inadequate populists who promulgate it. The NRA have just elected Ollie North (THAT Ollie North, of Iran Contra fame) as president and Trumpelstiltskin took the opportunity to bathe in the uncritical adulation of people who think that electing Ollie Fawnicating North to the Presidency of the National Ratfuckers Association is the most stimulating thing since their last sildenafil prescription. The Adler farce is the only thing that causes a stirring in the loins of our home-grown Crackers because it’s an orgasmic call to respect the authority of the man pointing a gun at your head and saying do it or else. All this is NRA lead and driven. It is a death cult.
As BW has pointed out, it looks like this was an act of domestic violence followed by suicide of an old white male who owned 3 “long arms” for a 30 hectare hobby farm. Even if one of the weapons was not a virtual 11 round automatic shotgun designed to kill multiple people quickly, this event still falls in the category of Port Arthur obscenity – and should elicit the same response: a universal collective statement of “fuck-off you insecure pathetic bastards – you have no “right” to control human murdering devices”. Even that evil little suburban solicitor Howard got this one right. Nobody “needs” a gun in civil society. If you need to use a military weapon, then you need enforceable military rules of engagement.
(disclosure: My brother was the forensic pathologist who did most of the Port Arthur post-mortems. He has strong feelings about guns and the people who love them. I am less sanguine.)
Bushfire Bill
A nifty skill he picked up at his church.
Confessions @ #198 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:39 am
I made the point because it was pointed out that the Coalition was having trouble selling their Flat Tax idea, so Murphy said, wtte, here let me show you how you can sell it! I just thought it was a bit suss.
Surely the disparity in Costello’s argument about how the debt will never be paid off is that his govt could do it because they had a once in a generation mining boom?
Agreed. Marr grates on me.
The reason for not splitting the tax “plan” is obvious, once you realise the government doesn’t actually want to deliver it.
They make a sham proposal, then tell the punters they’re tax-cutting heroes.
They make the “plan” so vague and flaky that Labor has to reject it. So now Labor are high-taxing socialist wreckers.
End result? The government doesn’t have to spend the money (which they were never going to spend anyway), and they get to blame Bill Shorten for it.
Can George Megalogenis just pee off! Bill Shorten is nothing like Tony Abbott at the 2013 election!
Confessions @ #203 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:44 am
And the Structural Deficit he baked into the Budget.
Didn’t Costello sell off (ie give away) something like 80 billion in assets (gold, airports, Telstra etc), to pay off a 70 billion debt? …Hardly a great achievement in budget management.
Vernon Kringas has founded a political party called New Futures Australia. Vernon is the Director of Procurement Operations in the Sydney office of a multinational procurement and supply chain management services firm called Infosys Portland. I know Vernon from the meetings and phone conversations I had as a member of the executive group of the New Democracy Party. Vernon is extremely good at facilitating meetings and group tasks. His IT skills are very advanced. He has a demanding high level job and a passion for enacting a more just allocation of resources in our society.
I wholeheartedly support what he is doing.
Here is the website for New Futures Australia:
https://newfuturesaustralia.org/about-us/
A lot of the progressive micro parties would be better off merging imho.
C@t
Just because Murphy can see both sides of a question, doesn’t mean she’s a fan of the Coal (or Labor, for that matter). Any of us at any time might say “Why doesn’t Turnbull…?” but we’re not barracking for him.
lizzie @ #183 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:29 am
Very nice straw man.
Was there any history of domestic violence? I haven’t heard of any.
It is a tragedy but to try to hang the label ‘domestic violence’ on every such event just diminishes the term.
It does seem to bear some of the hallmarks of a person with an undiagnosed mental illness suddenly snapping. But we simply don’t know at this stage.
As this piece by German Lopez at Vox points out, the only way to be immune to mass shootings is to live in a society with zero guns. So obviously Australia is not immune to mass shootings. But the frequency of mass shootings, gun homicides, and gun suicides are all far lower in Australia than in the United States. The key reason is that there are far fewer guns here.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/5/11/17345214/australia-mass-shooting-margaret-river-osmington
lizzie,
It was an observation, no more than that.
And good on Murphy for raising our GHGEs and how they’re rising again.
Her and Lenore Taylor do great reporting on AGW and the policy deficit from our federal govt.
Morrison’s “Shouty McShoutface” hectoring style of interviewing will not go down well.
People watch these types of interviews for information and a broad understanding of the issues and the interviewees approach. What we got this morning is a pot pourri of slogans and abuse. So, lots of heat, but not much light.
Bowen and Shorten’s measured style is far more engaging.
Mega George said if the LNP win Longman at a by-election it could become their Flinders circa the 1982 by-election. I’m not seeing the parallels.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flinders_by-election,_1982
Confessions @ #218 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:07 am
When Phillip Lynch died Peter Reith was elected at the by election in late 1981 for Flinders. However, when Fraser called the election, Labor picked up Flinders in the General Election.
I believe that reith is the only pollie never to get to canberra after being elected.
Reith won the seat back in 1984.
I suppose the analogy is that the Libs might pick it up at the by election but lose it at the subsequent Full election.
There is no way the LNP will win back Longman – or any other seat from the ALP.
Downer is a 50/50 chance to win back Mayo from the flailing Xenephon brand – assuming she is preselected.
GG:
I was thinking more about what the burning issue would be in Longman – in the Flinders eg the Franklin Dam was obviously front and centre.
I think the High Court’s decision in Katy Gallagher’s case shows that this group of High Court judges are overly devoted to black letter interpretations of the Constitution. Yes, the plain text of section 44 of the Commonwealth Constitution does imply that the renunciation process needs to have been completed, not merely initiated, before the person nominates for the election. But in practice this interpretation requires prospective MPs to have precognition of their intention to run for parliament in the future, which is not a realistic expectation of normal people who are not political junkies. In reality many people will make their decision to run just days or weeks before the nomination date, in which case it would be reasonable to expect them to have sent their renunciation papers and paid the relevant fee before the nomination date, but the completion of the process can occur after that date.
Previous groups of High Court judges used their discretion to interpret the Constitution in ways that are appropriate to contemporary circumstances. They perceived, accurately, that the Constitution is a living document, not a fossil or a tablet from God. The current High Court could have done the same thing with section 44. A group of men writing a document in the 1890s could not possibly have foreseen how common dual and multiple citizenship would be among the people of Australia in the 21st century. A less anal group of High Court judges would have adopted an interpretation of section 44 that reflected the reality of how Australians actually live. Why should large numbers of good people be excluded from parliamentary office merely because they are not political animals who have been planning a political career for years?
Confessions @ #221 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:15 am
Specific issues come and go.
However, at the time of the by-election which Reith won, Labor was expected to win. So, it encouraged Fraser to race to the polls with Hayden still as the Leader of the ALP. So, again the analogy might be if Labor lose the seat would it encourage Turnbull to go on to a full election?
Nicholas @ #222 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:17 am
“Why should large numbers of good people be excluded from parliamentary office merely because they are not political animals who have been planning a political career for years?”
The rules are clear and known. They know what they have to do.
And the ‘spur of the moment’ argument doesn’t elicit any sympathy from me. They are obviously just dilettantes and not serious contenders. They can get themselves sorted out and run at the following election. But of course they will have moved on to something else by then.
I would prefer S44 was different, but it isn’t. So until it is changed, it is the law. Whingeing about it is just futile.
When the Liberal’s Peter Reith unexpectedly won the Flinders by-election in November 1982, held about a year out from the due date of the next Federal election, Malcolm Fraser took that as a signal to go to the 1983 election early. He did and the rest is history.
I think I see why Mega George might see parallels here. Turnbull, the other Malcolm, might see a win as a signal to go later this year.
Both by-elections also had leadership questions at stake – for Flinders, it was the Opposition Leader Bill Hayden. Fraser wanted to go before Bob Hawke Replaced Bill Hayden (the other Bill). The other Malcolm might want to go before someone replaces him.
Bemused – the present law means that the govt of the day can get the renunciation of its candidates rushed through by putting the weights on foreign govts (e.g. Barnyard, Nash) and everybody else can stand in the corner.
GG, Steve777:
That makes sense.
Nicholas @ #210 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:54 am
Interesting company InfosysPortland.
So another Australian company bought by a foreign company. Sad.
C@tmomma, ‘People on higher incomes pay more income tax because they have more disposable income!’
I think another reason people on higher income should pay higher tax is because, their higher income is possible because of the things tax pay for. For instance, the rule of law, defence, infrastructure, education etc.
They are benefitting from previous tax spends and therefore should pay back for the benefit they recieve so future generations can also gain those benefits.
ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #226 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:26 am
I understand that. And a government as unscrupulous as the present one will do so in a partisan manner.
It is disgraceful.
Whether the Liberals win Longman or not there will be intense gazing at the entrails, viz:
1. The total PHON vote
2. PHON prefs distribution
3. Turnbull leadershit
4. Overall tax policy messaging by both Shorten and Turnbull.
I for one enjoy listening to David Marr, particularly when he shows up Gerard Henderson for his pompous outdated Catholic orthodox views. He writes as an outsider, and is forensic about issues such as Tampa and refugees, the Pell issue, etc. Marr too can come across as pompous but it is what he says that matters. Loved his book on Patrick White.
Just as there are those who don’t like Waleed Aly, another outsider…..I find their perspectives interesting without necessarily agreeing.
Am constantly surprised by the need for people to like someone , rather than agree/disagree with their point of view. I have friends who won’t vote for Shorten because they don’t like him even though they prefer his policies.
Madness.
Marr and Henderson should never be on the same panel. Henderson should never be on any sane panel.
S.44 (i) is just rubbish. It should be repealed.
Chrisken @ #232 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:34 am
It’s like an old style Punch and Judy show with Marr and Henderson.
Loads of fun.
Unless your friends live in the seat of Maribyrnong, they will not have the opportunity to vote for Bill Shorten.
The policies are not Shorten’s. They are ALP policies, so they should get behind their local ALP candidate to support the policies they like.
Chr
Marr’s habit of oozing contempt is off-putting.
briefly @ #234 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:43 am
Good luck with that.
MAybe some of the better memories here can enlighten me … what major infrastructure did the Costello treasurership build during 2000-2007?
I can’t recall any.
Boerwar @ #236 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:44 am
I love the way he patronises Henderson.
jenauthor @ #15721 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:47 am
Tax rorting and rent-seeking.
Jenauthor
Money for the Pacific and Hume highway upgrades in NSW (however concurrent under Hawke-Keating-Howard- Rudd-Abbot etc).
Money for motorway projects in the major cities. I think there was some limited upgrades to rail links.
lizzie @ #146 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 8:45 am
Well, it certainly makes sense if you consider that energy from production and use of fossil fuels is the biggest cause of degradation of our environment, so the two should be considered together.
Unfortunately, it also makes sense if your ambition is to hide the consequences of fossil fuels on the environment, or quietly undermine or nobble any environmental initiatives that might affect your fossil-fuel company donors.
Politicians who didn’t make it to parliament:
Reith eventually did but John Clasby beat Eddie Ward (standing for NSW ALP) in the 1931 general after the Federal ALP preferenced the UAP. Clasby died 2 weeks later before parliament met and Ward won the resulting by-election
rhwombat @ #201 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:41 am
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/13/labor-cries-foul-after-birmingham-compares-tafe-changes-to-subsidised-basket-weaving
Jenauthor,
I can think of three.
1. Ghan extension – White elephant – passenger train runs once a fortnight.
2. $750m for CCS. I’ve seen the structures attached to the electricity plants in the Latrobe Valley – waste of money.
3. Broadband cabling. – which saw some suburbs get two cables, some one and some none. Stranded assets left everywhere (the wire in the power poles to hock the optus’ cable is still there, but Optus abandoned the area when Telstra beat them to it going underground). $4b poorly spent.
Lizzie
What a quote!