YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Some encouraging poll news for the government from Queensland, as the Western Australian Liberals opt to sit out the Perth and Fremantle by-elections.

The Courier-Mail has a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention (presumably state results from the same poll will follow tomorrow or the next day), and it records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, which compares with a 54.1-45.9 result at the 2016 election. This is unchanged from the last such poll in early February, although that result was stronger for the Coalition than other polling from Queensland. The primary votes in the latest poll are Coalition 40% (41% in the February poll, 43.2% at the election), Labor 33% (32% and 30.9%), Greens 10% (10% and 8.8%) and One Nation 10% (9% and 5.5% from ten seats contested). Other findings from the poll:

Other questions related to the budget: 39% said the budget will make them better off, compared with 32% for worse off; 26% think Labor would have delivered a better budget, with 51% for the negative; 39% said it would be good for Queensland, and 28% bad; 21% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, 17% less likely and 57% no influence; 46% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition had “the best long-term plan for Australia’s future” compared with 31% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and Scott Morrison led Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer 38% to 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 900.

It’s a bit out of date now, but let the record note that the latest BludgerTrack update had Labor up two seats in Victoria and down one in Western Australia following some quirky state breakdown results, but recorded next to no change on national voting intention. This was all based on this week’s Essential Research poll, which also included a new set of leadership numbers. There will presumably be a lot more post-budget polling to come over the next few days.

Also noted:

• The state council of the Liberal Party has announced it will not be fielding candidates in the by-elections for Fremantle (not surprising) and Perth (very surprising). The party’s Twitter account says is “will not be distracted by Bill Shorten’s duplicity and dishonesty”, and will instead devote its energies to the state by-election in Darling Range. Jessica Strutt of the ABC reports the candidate is likely to be Rob Coales, Serpentine-Jarrahdale councillor and candidate for Thornlie at the state election. If so they will be overlooking Alyssa Hayden, who unexpectedly lost her upper house seat to One Nation last year, and again be exhibiting their lack of concern for anything resembling gender parity.

• A poll of 1277 respondents in Longman, conducted on Thursday night by ReachTEL for The Australia Institute, gives a remarkably strong result for the Coalition, who lead 53-47 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 36.7% (39.0% at the election) and Labor 32.5% (35.4%).

• Jane Prentice has lost Liberal National Party preselection for her Brisbane seat of Ryan to Brisbane councillor Julian Simmonds, and the Liberal state council meeting in Western Australia appears set to take over the preselection process in Moore to protect Ian Goodenough from four challengers (Andres Timmermanis, John Raftis, Paul Miles and Robert Marie).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

527 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 1 of 11
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  2. Ides

    Yes there had been rumours about Prentice. Probably not a wise move but who knows

    For those not in Brisbane you will not quite understand the nature of Ryan as a seat. It includes the major University and all the associated voting patterns, a key business district where all the IT firms operate, the richest hobby farm zones where there is wealth and ponies, some pockets of strait out rural farms several struggling outer suburban areas,one housing commission area with a significant indigenous population, several leafy green wealthy neo hippy suburbs – inner city type ones, an area a bit like Strathfield or Camberwell and some leafy green upper middle class suburban areas.

    In short it has the bloody lot.

    In 15 out of 38 booths the Greens got a higher vote than Labor. Labor did very badly last election. Which was sad. Very nice candidate but maybe not much oomph. More to the point I think Prentice did exceptionally well

    She won booths that she should not have won. Heartland ALP type booths

  3. From previous thread.

    bemused (Block)
    Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 4:37 pm
    Comment #863

    C@tmomma @ #809 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 2:33 pm

    adrian @ #788 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:48 pm

    bemused @ #779 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:30 pm

    lizzie @ #709 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    Kon Karapanagiotidis‏Verified account @Kon__K · 11h11 hours ago

    In a week where 5 women have been killed in Australia this week I want you all to remember @TurnbullMalcolm committed more money to a statute (sic) of Captain Cook than new funding for #DV and Sexual Assault Services & Prevention in #Budget18

    So the lives of men and boys don’t matter.
    Sick!
    Seven people died. 4 were children.

    What a ridiculous conclusion to draw!

    Maybe you should join the Moronic Posters on PB Club. I’m sure that extremely senior President and CEO Borewar will accept your membership application.

    Exactly. Especially as the only person who hasn’t been mentioned as being one of the murder victims is the MALE husband and father of the children.

    WRONG as usual.

  4. From previous thread.
    bemused (Block)
    Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 4:46 pm
    Comment #864

    steve davis @ #824 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 3:09 pm

    I cant believe how someone could kill all his family in that way.Why couldn’t he have sought professional help or just took his own life?Heartbreaking stuff.

    I have discussed this with a Mental Health professional who explained that it can arise from a type of depression where the perpetrator decides the world is too terrible to live in or to leave loved ones to live in. So they take their family with them.
    Ghastly.
    Incomprehensible.

  5. From previous thread.
    bemused (Block)
    Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 4:48 pm
    Comment #865

    Boerwar @ #825 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 3:13 pm

    OK, some more facts.

    The killer owned three (3) licenced ‘long arm’ weapons. This means not pistols but three rifles and/or shotguns.

    Who needs three death dealing weapons like that?

    Farmers.

  6. I’m linking this again because it’s important to know the truth.

    When a heavy pall of smoke blanketed Melbourne last week, the Asthma Foundation assured sufferers of “the importance of planned burns for safety in our community [to] protect life, property and the environment by reducing the fuel levels”.

    Across Victoria’s central highlands, if it didn’t sting your nostrils, the smoke obscuring the ranges might have passed for fog. Locals put up with it, mindful that planned burns are a necessary evil – remember Black Saturday.

    But when Adam Menary – a resident of the Yarra Valley, east of Melbourne – awoke on successive days with headaches, he resolved to blow away “a smokescreen of spin”. Tertiary-educated in agricultural science, horticulture and forestry, Menary is a trained firefighter and director of a risk management company.

    He and other researchers say most of the smoke in Melbourne was from industrial logging burns – not fire management. “We’re being misled by government spin,” he says. He’s among a cohort of scientists and business people urging the Victorian government to “come clean”.

    …
    In a media release, Forest Fire Management Victoria (FFMV) chief fire officer Darrin McKenzie, a former timber industry figure, said he was sorry for the inconvenience but that without planned burns, “we won’t reduce bushfire risk”.

    Chris Taylor, a research consultant who wrote his doctoral thesis on Australian forest certification standards, was the source of Dunn’s figures. He showed me how to verify them using a database of fire events on the FFMV website, cross-referencing them with 10-digit numbers of logging coupes. These and NASA satellite images make it clear that most of the smoke that affected Melbourne at the beginning of the month was from 119 Victorian central highlands and outer metropolitan burnoffs that Taylor calls “industrial events”. He says it is deceptive to describe these as “planned burns”, although technically true. “Logging fires aren’t there to protect life and property.”

    Worse, the air near the coupes wasn’t monitored, but 41 kilometres downwind at Mooroolbark, an outer eastern suburb near the Dandenong Ranges, the readings were “off the scale” in toxicity, said a senior firefighter, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Clean air, in Environment Protection Authority Victoria’s air quality index, has a rating of 0–33; poor air 100–149. Very poor air is rated above 150. The Mooroolbark reading early on the first morning in May was 901 – toxic enough, my source said, “for emergency evacuation”. He said the air-quality index, an aggregate measure, hides more than it reveals: the devil is in the detail of particulates and gases.

    Levels of dangerous carbon monoxide and P2.5 (carcinogenic particulates) were “through the roof”, he said. Later, Samantha Dunn told parliament the levels “greatly exceeded World Health Organisation” toxicity measures.
    …
    Many scientists are urging VicForests to transition out of native forests and into plantation estates, which have higher annual yields and lower emissions from slash-burns. Late last year, a parliamentary inquiry recommended the same, but last month it emerged that VicForests is continuing to log against recommendations of the Victorian government’s flora and fauna scientific advisory committee.

    Supply of mountain ash is in decline, and in 2016, PricewaterhouseCoopers estimated that each native forest industry job costs more than $5 million in state investment, and only brings 14 cents in return for every dollar spent.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2018/05/12/fuel-reduction-smokescreen-logging-burns/15260472006217?cb=1526108343

  7. lizzie

    You raise some good points there.

    While the rationale for the control burns is to save lives, they never do a life-for-life comparison of the impact of control burns on hospital admissions and premature mortality.

    The only real game in town here is that the control burns are being driven by the property insurance industry.

  8. Vic:

    Plenty have noted the obvious that Trump isn’t draining the swamp so much as increasing it to whole new levels of swamp, but I thought Maher’s statement that New York ‘isn’t sending us their best people’ was so ridiculously a statement of the obvious that it needs repeating. The federal govt has been taken over by the worst of the worst low rent thugs from New York.

  9. Am reading Jim Comeys book – half way through -and am struck by his commitment to truth, honesty and candour. He talks about his weaknesses and his failures and his attempts to better himself. It’s a trait of his private life, and is at the core of every public role he has held.
    Religion and family play a central role in his decision making.
    I can understand now so clearly why Trump fired him. And I can now understand why Trump’s election as President has forever changed the standing that the once United States of America has in this shrinking world.
    Trump is a clear and present danger to world cohesion, to world peace and humanities values.
    Trump surrounds himself with moral scum. He acts without moral compass. That will be his legacy, and world will be a lesser place, wether he is beaten, impeached or is even re-elected.

  11. Many scientists are urging VicForests to transition out of native forests and into plantation estates, which have higher annual yields and lower emissions from slash-burns. Late last year, a parliamentary inquiry recommended the same, but last month it emerged that VicForests is continuing to log against recommendations of the Victorian government’s flora and fauna scientific advisory committee.

    I was on the Council of Environment Victoria – roughly 25 years ago. Then they were saying the same thing, using what appeared to be valid economic analysis. How long must we wait for politicians with a long-term view?

  12. phylactella

    The SOP is that it will keep going until there is no native forest worth felling left. At which point they will declare a Yuuge Bold move into ‘environmentally friendly’ , ‘sustainable’ plantation forestry and award themselves gold stars.

  13. Hmmm. I just noticed my C+ extension is no longer working – but only on this thread! I just reloaded the previous thread and it still works fine on that one 🙁

    Anyone else seeing this?

  14. Al Pal:

    I follow Comey on Instagram and he has this amusing knack of taking massive pot shots at the Trump administration without appearing to be doing so at all. Just a guy posting photos on his social media account.

    Very clever.

  15. phylactella

    VicForests is continuing to log

    Yes, we knew that forestry must come to an end, but somehow the pollies have handed over their power to the loggers. The excuse that they are saving jobs is wearing very thin against the value of the trees/vegetation/habitat they are destroying.

  16. The term ‘aspirationals’, certainly comes across as ‘grasping’, articles in Fairfax and from what I saw in the GG, had subtext, these people have done well and ‘deserve’ to be rewarded. Anyone who says different is proclaiming ‘politics of envy’.

    The Fairfax article had timeline charts showing the ALP plan would leave the middle income earners better off initially but would be overhauled in 2021 or 2022 by the coalition plan. The article was reporting a study they had commissioned but Labor cannot and should not, compete in such a mercenary contest.

  19. Player One @ #13 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 6:35 pm

    Hmmm. I just noticed my C+ extension is no longer working – but only on this thread! I just reloaded the previous thread and it still works fine on that one 🙁

    Anyone else seeing this?

    Working as usual for me – Both Firefox and Chrome – Windows 10.

    Perhaps click on the icon and Save then F5.

  21. 46% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition had “the best long-term plan for Australia’s future” compared with 31% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and Scott Morrison led Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer 38% to 23%.

    Unfu*king-believable.

    I don’t know why the ALP bother sometimes.
    The country is full of ungrateful, dumbarse morons.
    They deserve the Coalition.

  22. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    5h5 hours ago
    Congrats Liberals – you have just rolled a female minister halfway into her third term, one of only 13 women in the 76 member lower house Coalition team. And for a star…a local councillor who used to be a staffer to a local councillor. That’s merit Liberal Party style…

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    5h5 hours ago
    I love the logic of opponents to gender quotas or targets. They say they believe in “merit”. Ok, so on merit women are only worthy of securing 13 of 76 seats for the Coalition? 50% of the population only good enough to hold 17% of seats. Ok, I’ve got it. That’s totally logical…

    I sense another column on gender diversity in the coalition ranks coming on.

  23. John Reidy says:

    The term ‘aspirationals’, certainly comes across as ‘grasping’,

    From the time The Rodent held them up as some sort of ideal their supposed characteristics caused me to adopt the term ‘Grasperationals’.

  25. mundo @ #21 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 6:52 pm

    46% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition had “the best long-term plan for Australia’s future” compared with 31% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and Scott Morrison led Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer 38% to 23%.

    Unfu*king-believable.

    I don’t know why the ALP bother sometimes.
    The country is full of ungrateful, dumbarse morons.
    They deserve the Coalition.

    They must believe the shit that the media pretend is news.

    The MSM are the masters of seemingly benign propaganda, and many voters buy it hook, line and sinker.

  27. mundo @ #12 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 6:52 pm

    46% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition had “the best long-term plan for Australia’s future” compared with 31% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and Scott Morrison led Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer 38% to 23%.

    Unfu*king-believable.

    I don’t know why the ALP bother sometimes.
    The country is full of ungrateful, dumbarse morons.
    They deserve the Coalition.

    My investigation into this matter reveals that the dumbarse morons get whatever few morsels of information they do receive – from other dumbarse morons or from Newspapers owned/controlled by one Rupert Murdock or from Television. Few take night classes in critical thinking.

    What the answer is I know not.

    I do know that I do not want the ALP to give up.

    Finally. Nobody deserves the Coalition.

    Goodnight all. 💤💤💤

  28. It just goes to show slick and shallow and sneaky and smarmy, and just plain nasty, politics and politicians will Trump decency and deep and thoughtful policies and politicians these days.

    To use an Australian colloquialism, it’s the politics of ‘Bugger you, I’m all right Jack!’ Therefore they think they need to be rewarded for ‘succeeding’ in this environment. Altruism appears to be on life support in Australia.

  29. ANTONBRUCKNER11
    Ah yes, ‘The Plan”. Abbott’s crew had claims of having “a plan” on very high rotation yet we never actually got told what those plans were. Of course our presstitutes never pressed them on just what “we have a plan” actually entailed. But rest assured the had a plan.

  31. poroti @ #29 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 5:08 pm

    ANTONBRUCKNER11
    Ah yes, ‘The Plan”. Abbott’s crew had claims of having “a plan” on very high rotation yet we never actually got told what those plans were.

    I remember being mailed a copy of The Plan ahead of the 2013 election. It was nothing more than a 5 or so page glossy booklet featuring images of Tony Abbott Looking At Things, but most importantly photos of him sat in an airplane staring out the window.

  34. Confessions

    😀 Tones inspired by the Kim Jong Un . There was an internet meme a while back of “Kim Jong Un Looking at Things”.

  35. The above Galaxy poll was conducted on Wednesay and Thursday, after the budget itself was delivered but before the budget reply from Shorten.

    Therefore the budget questions re ” best long term plan ” etc are interesting. Respondents had the government ” plan ” but nothing really with which to compare it from labor. The government picture v the labor blank canvas at the time of the poll.

    Labor does not seem to have suffered much politically from the lack of a competing economic vision with its primary vote actually increasing by 1 and the government down by 1.

    Given the full on get Shorten on Wednesday and Thursday and the fact Shorten had not delivered his budget reply at the time this poll was conducted I think this poll is a pretty flat result for Turnbull.

    Upcoming polls conducted from Thursday onwards which will flow in coming days may be more informative if people out in the real world, in fact, really care or perhaps it is too early after the ” events “to make any real assumptions at this point.

    Disclaimer : As a complete amateur my above post could well be complete rubbish and, as such, ripe for ripping apart from more informed posters.

    Cheers and a hood night to all.

  38. This one is memorable given recent events, and criticisms in yesterday’s Crikey that Australia wasn’t stern enough with the former Malaysian leader.

  40. Confessions @ #32 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 7:12 pm

    C@t:

    Did you really think it would go any other way?

    I just saw a report on the ABC about the pre-selection meeting today to decide the outcome of the contest and the antediluvian President of the LNP said that Ms Prentice is in her 60s and it was time for a younger person to take her place! It sounded like he was talking about putting an old cow out to pasture!

    I also clearly remember that nothing like that is ever said about any of the old men of the Liberal Party and LNP, such as Phillip Ruddock, Ian MacDonald, John Howard!

  41. poroti @ #23 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 6:59 pm

    John Reidy says:

    The term ‘aspirationals’, certainly comes across as ‘grasping’,

    From the time The Rodent held them up as some sort of ideal their supposed characteristics caused me to adopt the term ‘Grasperationals’.

    And that f*****g idiot Latham was right into it too.

  43. poroti:

    There have def been some good pics over the years of Abbott unintentionally presenting lolworthy photo ops.

  44. One last observation before crawling into bed with a good book.

    Given WA is the home state of Corman and Bishop, one the Finance minister and the other deputy liberal leader, the decision today to not contest Freemantle and Perth ( the big surprise ) is interesting. No bang for their buck from the budget ?

    Cheers.

  45. bemused

    The Pomgolians have a term “sharp elbowed middle class” . The ‘Grasperationals’ may be their Antipodean equivalent.

  46. From previous thread.
    bemused (Block)
    Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 4:48 pm
    Comment #865

    Boerwar @ #825 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 3:13 pm

    OK, some more facts.

    The killer owned three (3) licenced ‘long arm’ weapons. This means not pistols but three rifles and/or shotguns.

    Who needs three death dealing weapons like that?

    Farmers.

    ____________________________

    bemused I don’t know what you are trying to say, it is unintelligible.

    Break it up into paragraphs attributed to whoever wrote them, otherwise it is total stream of consciousness.

  47. C@t:

    Yep, the coalition partyroom is awash with pale, male and stale yet whenever talk turns to a refresh of them for younger fresher talent, we always hear talk the likes of what great service they’ve given and deserve respect for their years (decades) in parliament, or they’re a party stalwart and still have a great deal to contribute.

    It’s the same old double standard for women. You’re held to standards your male counterparts never have to meet for as long as they continue to satisfy that invisible yet invasive criteria of the Old Boy’s Network.

  48. Confessions

    I thought the demise of The Rodent would be the end of a ‘golden age’ for cartoonists. How wrong I was.

  49. Doyley:

    I think the decision is more financial than anything else. Why waste resources on a seat you aren’t likely to win when you can conserve your resources for the general election itself?

  50. “Ah yes, ‘The Plan”. Abbott’s crew had claims of having “a plan” on very high rotation yet we never actually got told what those plans were.”

    They were in the 2014 Budget.

    And current plans will become known in the 2019 Budget if the voters give them another go.

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